{"id":7683,"date":"2023-03-14T09:27:58","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T08:27:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-14-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:49:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:49:06","slug":"2023-03-14-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-14-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The latest Accentman that Krinkan posted in yesterday’s thread this morning is very interesting \u2013 if you look at the first few minutes, there is actually nothing wrong with the Russians’ combat aircraft, it’s just that Ukraine fights better than them every day.<\/p>\n

First, they are supposed to secure the flank north of Kupiansk, then move towards Kupiansk to cut the supply lines to units further east and then roll up the front along the Oskil River \u2013 exactly what we expected when we called it a chance to become “messy”. I was worried about this northern area and that they would be able to push down along the Oskil River and establish a strong defensive position on the northern flank.<\/p>\n

They haven’t even gotten out of the starting blocks, which is quite sensational because it is not easy terrain to defend. Ukraine solves the task with constant counterattacks that confuse the Russians.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/oOoozPh4Nhk<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I give up on the pro-Ukrainian debaters who have become completely depressed and believe that UA is losing. The only logical explanation is that they are part of a Western psyops because you have to look hard to find such a defeatist mood. Just a statement and no discussion is needed about it. They are almost as depressed as Girkin is, but he believes that the Russian winter offensive has totally crashed and that Transnistria is lost.<\/p>\n

The delaying battle in Bakhmut continues and I think it is starting to look like the escape route to the west is shrinking.
\nThe “forest area” (I call it a forest area but it might be a cemetery) southwest of Bakhmut is now contested and when the area is no longer contested, RU has fire control over the fields.<\/p>\n

According to earlier, it is enough if you hold back one wing of the extent, but now Khromove is contested and if you take the forest area northwest of Bakhmut, the retreat route is exposed.<\/p>\n

A fairly large area in the southern Bakhmut settlement is now also contested and it increased quite a bit in one day.
\nThe above is naturally based on Deepstatemap, so if their definition of contested is not how I see it, the retreat window is still wide open. <\/p>\n

The only reason to go into a hedgehog defense in the Bakhmut settlement would be if you know you will go on the offensive fairly soon.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, you would probably pull out the remaining units from the city before the retreat routes are cut, presumably?
\nWhat could remain in the city, 500-1000?<\/p>\n

According to earlier, I am of the opinion that much has been achieved by holding the city \u2013 northern Luhansk is weakened and they have caused the Russians’ best units heavy losses.<\/p>\n

I probably was wrong about Spetznaz and Bakhmut, I start to think, if you are the only one in the whole world pushing that, the probability is low.<\/p>\n

Also according to earlier, UA has defense west of the city of Bakhmut and this will not lead to any breakthrough.
\nThey will probably always get out if needed, there are plenty of examples where they have broken out of encirclement or carried out an attack to relieve. That said, the smoothest way is probably to slip away while you can do it without having to fight your way out.<\/p>\n

You probably have to keep an eye on how it moves in Deepstatemap day by day.
\nThere were also reports yesterday of a counterattack towards south Ivanivske. I don’t know if it was trench death we saw yesterday when they cleared with tanks?<\/p>\n

We have also learned that the industrial area in the northeast corner of the settlement has the same types of tunnels as Azovstal, which means that IF you want, you can withstand a siege for a longer time. I base that on Mariupol and Severodonetsk.<\/p>\n

There is another angle to this but it is HIGHLY speculative \u2013 we know that UA has prepared offensive reserves on both flanks but we don’t know if they are preparing for offense or defense, or if they are tricking to draw in units so they can strike somewhere else.<\/p>\n

By letting Bakhmut be encircled, they draw in many units who believe they are surrounding Bakhmut and knocking out the defense but they are actually themselves in a sack about to be closed, a so-called double bluff \u2013 straight into the crayfish trap screaming victory and then it goes pitch black.<\/p>\n

Victory is near, Putin gets so eager that his hands shake \u2013 all-in on Bakhmut, finally he has something positive for Xi next week.<\/p>\n

Then they surround them in an area without natural defense and which otherwise is low on Russian units because everyone is fighting in the city of Bakhmut, and moreover it is artillery so they cannot retreat fast enough.<\/p>\n

Highly speculative as said but if it succeeds, they have formed their own sack with Russian artillery that cannot be relieved.<\/p>\n

And which perhaps also is short on ammunition?
\nEspecially those fighting in the city of Bakhmut have only the ammunition they carry with them and if they have received lower allocations, an encirclement can work wonders for ammunition supply. Russian soldiers also tend to fire one magazine at a time towards Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Regarding the spring offensive, I think Ukraine will probably start in the darkest hours of the day. There is some truth to starting at 01:00 \u2013 02:00 in the morning when everyone is most tired?<\/p>\n

I also think that more dark hours are good since UA can and will conduct combat in darkness, so waiting until Midsummer when it is light 24 hours would be illogical. <\/p>\n

The spearhead will fight as in daylight and the defenders in their trench systems will not have light for their night vision (if they have any), if they try to set up night vision missiles they will get drone grenades in the head or an airburst on them.<\/p>\n

All heavy vehicles in defense will probably be knocked out before they get forward.<\/p>\n

I have a hard time seeing how a Russian defensive line will be able to stop Ukraine longer than it takes to carry out the breakthrough.<\/p>\n

Then the whole defensive line is by definition obsolete \u2013 Lex the French.<\/p>\n

The biggest risk was always the task force from the capable reserve rushing to the breakthrough when Ukraine is most vulnerable. Now it is partly heavily decimated and then UA will probably lay distance mines between the breakthrough and it so they drive straight into mines with a bit of luck.<\/p>\n

Step two is then to exploit the breakthrough \u2013
\nThe breakthrough can be planned in detail and nothing moves, they rehearse until the whole brigade knows every step in their sleep.
\nAfter the breakthrough, it becomes combat leadership on the move and the units will try to take their C, B, A attack objectives or more.
\n-You need flank protection.
\n-You need to get forward observer teams.
\n-You need to counter Russian counterattacks from task forces that can come from anywhere.
\n-You can drive into unmapped minefields.
\n-You need to go deep fast enough and not lose momentum.<\/p>\n

They have already shown what they can achieve up at Izyum and now they have had plenty of time to practice since then.<\/p>\n

Different brigades will have different operational areas, some get Melitopol, others southeast of Mariupol, etc. so it is not an unmanageable amount to learn about the area they are to attack down through.
\nDown to platoon leader probably has the maps under control at least?<\/p>\n

My opinion \u2013 now the mechanic brigades should not enter cities but rather pass by the cities and then encircle them instead of trying to push straight through. Now the cities are probably being emptied before UA succeeds with the encirclements because the Russians have excelled at that particular trick so far throughout the war.<\/p>\n

If they manage this, which they do, then they can manage anything.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that the Russian team should have given up a long time ago but that they will come out of this intact is impossible.<\/p>\n

The southern front is probably retreating down to Crimea and then they are trapped, and when UA announces that the bridge will be blown up, Crimea will be emptied in about a week.<\/p>\n

Noted that the 1st Tank Brigade is down at the southern front near Vuhledar. That brigade is definitely the offensive reserve.
\nThey also have a newly established assault brigade and the Azov brigade at the southern front \u2013 both offensive reserves.
\nAt the Dnieper they have a bit too much territory for just defense and the 5th Tank Brigade is not located.<\/p>\n

Then I understand if the Russians are a bit shaky around Bakhmut because they have a fairly large part of the offensive reserve in the area and it is an untactical bulge there if UA does not give up Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk it is an absolute mystery how the Russians have not managed better than they have, in my opinion, UA has a sparse picket line and the Russians have gathered a considerable number but the Accent man had a possible explanation \u2013 UA fights better every day. Then we have the hornet\u2019s nest with (all of the West\u2019s) SOF of course.<\/p>\n

There are incredibly many different takes on most things right now, if one may guess, planted false information is circulating around various offensives just to confuse things.<\/p>\n

We must not forget that Gregg and the Accent man are part of that and that they occasionally get information that they are supposed to push out.<\/p>\n

What is UA or Russian psyops cannot be figured out.<\/p>\n

Noteworthy is that Russian prisoners look very worn out.<\/p>\n

Ending with a small film gallery today (high probability that Erik14 has already posted all of these\u2026) \u2013<\/p>\n

Ammunition shortage, as is well known I believe the Russians are very short on most things. The blogger has several times pointed out a lack of close air support for the defense.
\nThis was up yesterday in the thread, he claims that the ammunition shortage is broad and across all weapon types.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1635259505008349186?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

WARNING dead Russians. This is a dead group advancing, I think I glimpse an RPG 7 but no anti-tank rockets?
\nThe group otherwise looks equipped?
\nIf we disregard the anti-tank rockets that UA may have stolen, the RPG 7 is not strength in any way.
\nIf you run out of close air support you have problems, especially when the opponent has just received hundreds of tanks and thousands of armored vehicles.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1635249174102020097?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Girkin is even angrier than usual, the winter offensive was a fiasco and Transnistria is lost,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/alexandruc4\/status\/1635366003671711747?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

Very worth reading how RU went all in to take over Ukraine with Yanukovich and that Maidan maybe was not decadent Western colonization. We already knew that but he has found evidence so it is no longer conspiratorial.
\nIt was up in yesterday\u2019s thread I saw, all eyes on him.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/p_kallioniemi\/status\/1635273860923916288?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

This shows how wet it is in Bakhmut,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/heroiam_slava\/status\/1635309832839516160?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

The Serbs have finally given up, it was probably the failed winter offensive that was the last nail in the coffin one can guess.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1635419106605424645?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

When 2 become 1 I call this nice combo in light blue \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/girkingirkin\/status\/1635323759581356033?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/flash_news_ua\/status\/1635385414503780354?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile in Russia (now I\u2019m worried about going there for animal cruelty but thinking that if it follows Twitter\u2019s rules it\u2019s okay?)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vidsthatgohard\/status\/1635300944094326788?s=46&t=KLjqvkbGJ_68l2NwK3U-rg<\/a><\/p>\n

Maybe breaking the rules with wounded UA soldier but what absolute legends these are.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/LlopisMarta95\/status\/1635401019202105346?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Getting a bit unsure about Bakhmut \u2013 the Deepstate map may not be 100% or maybe other information is being misinterpreted but UA is on defense in Dubovo Vasylivka according to the formal report?<\/p>\n

Then it\u2019s going around that UA has conducted counterattacks south of Bakhmut towards the cemetery?<\/p>\n

All credible sources contradict each other right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Well written as usual!<\/p>\n

Interesting point about the light. I have been thinking that I would like them to wait until mid-May but this argues for April instead. Then of course it depends on the ground drying up.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk really became a Russian fiasco. All Psyops about huge amounts of troops ready inside Russia and that they also expected to use air power.. was just Psyops. They have achieved nothing.<\/p>\n

At Vuhledar they have bitten the dust so many times that you lost count. It\u2019s just to thank and receive for that self-reduction.<\/p>\n

What they have managed since New Year is to take some ground at Kreminna and Avdiivka but even there it seems to be at great losses.<\/p>\n

Then of course we have Bakhmut where we still don\u2019t know how it will end but so far the Russians have taken enormous punishment even though it has also cost Ukraine a lot.<\/p>\n

The Russian winter offensive possibly messed things up for Ukraine who maybe planned to push on themselves but overall it almost feels like it was part of the Ukrainian pre-battle preparation for the spring offensive..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Yes, you don\u2019t know what is possible psyops or not..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

In January sometime there was a flash from the USA where they urged UA to wait with their offensive until they got Western armor and Gregg wrote sometime that if it doesn\u2019t come soon then there will be an offensive anyway with our old Eastern tanks.<\/p>\n

UA absolutely had resources and was ready last winter but the Russians preempted them, my guess list on why is very long but one is that then UA\u2019s offensive was delayed \u2013 playing for time.<\/p>\n

UA themselves are open about their new brigades and we know what equipment they get from the West and they are open about their offensive to win the war \u2013 this is done to motivate the country but then the country also expects it so it will happen, the bow is drawn to the breaking point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The interesting thing about no mobilization is twofold \u2013<\/p>\n

Why, we are long past when it should have happened?<\/p>\n

That Russia has more to mobilize over time and can lose more becomes completely irrelevant if they don\u2019t mobilize. What matters is how many they have on active fronts not the reserve of conscripts.<\/p>\n

Now they had 326,000 according to Budanov and have attacked continuously since January 6 with a hell of a lot of brigades that should be tired.<\/p>\n

Then they have used up ammunition to the point that they are starting to run short.<\/p>\n

UA has saved for the offensive and rested their units.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now this doesn\u2019t top torturing and murdering five-year-olds or castration but it\u2019s more than just sick that a group of Russians capture a wounded Ukrainian soldier and then keep him in their position, starving and torturing him \u2013 wtf.
\nIt\u2019s like some obscene version of a pet that livens up the group a bit, they are really deeply disturbed.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheDeadDistrict\/status\/1635258805239037953?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has this been up, Ukrainian Ku Klux Klan \u2013 the battalion according to Russian media.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1635553608392482817?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Erik14 is pretty close, 190,000 + one more battalion per unit + the maneuver battalions + DPR\/LPR\/Wagner + volunteers + the year\u2019s conscripts.<\/p>\n

Then 300,000 mobilized who were ready when, maybe November.<\/p>\n

Then volunteers + some mobilization under the surface \u2013 30,000\/month has been suggested as a figure by MRF I believe.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s rattling on but at the same time people are exiting as well, frostbite and everything else.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

More drone<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/nickschifrin\/status\/1635766881628876800?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Fighter jets in time for the spring offensive \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/battlefieldukr\/status\/1635735532012556288?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This one might have been up but damn how fun that they have dug deep into the reserves.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1635671366031622146?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Not even 5-56 can save that scrap!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

LW could write a blog post with a provocative title like \u2013 M worse than S, how is that possible, every day.<\/p>\n

Then all party politics would be in a separate thread that you can read if you want.<\/p>\n

And the three who think it\u2019s important have a long discussion with each other?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

That would be quite nice. Maybe also have one regarding the NATO application too because those discussions almost always end with political mudslinging.. <\/p>\n

Maybe the blog post could be called “Whose fault is it that we are still not members of NATO”..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Well done Oscars gala
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1635705838479220738?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Russian partisans keep going.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/intermarium24\/status\/1635694712228130824?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

F16?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1635900150437625859?s=46&t=F35rnYaeP2q0iz79lUxmIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Nice to see that the resistance is alive!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Fingers crossed!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:50 \u2013 Johan No.1 The latest Accentman that Krinkan posted in yesterday’s thread this morning is very interesting \u2013 if 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