{"id":7699,"date":"2023-03-18T09:18:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-18T08:18:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-18-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:50:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:50:54","slug":"2023-03-18-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-18-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:47<\/h2>\n

One can now consider that pre-combat preparations for the offensive have begun and that there are also reconnaissance battles over a larger area?<\/p>\n

Bingbong posted in yesterday\u2019s thread this morning and I had probably missed that there had been so many reconnaissance battles on the southern front.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/MOSoJfrbud4<\/a><\/p>\n

Notably, the ground_already_bears.<\/p>\n

Then there was a post about two platoons\u2019 mechanical failures near Bakhmut, where and how is unclear but the ground_bears_there_too.<\/p>\n

What is the purpose of the \u201cAzov thrust\u201d (TM some light in the thread)?
\n-To cut off the land bridge to Crimea, presumably?<\/p>\n

What does UA need to do to achieve that?
\n-at least fire control of the N-S road down by Azov?<\/p>\n

What is one of the war\u2019s most important goals?
\n\u2013 to retake Crimea, the symbolism is greater for the Russians than the darkest Donbass.<\/p>\n

I called cutting the land route to Crimea the \u201cchess move\u201d all spring because I considered it decisive.
\nTo get there, a whole chain of events must play out but once that is achieved, the war is irreversibly lost for the Russian side (which it probably already is, but then they have it right in their face in its unvarnished reality).<\/p>\n

Possible attack vectors for the Azov thrust-<\/p>\n

Move towards Melitopol \u2013<\/p>\n

Regarding Melitopol, the big question is whether one needs to defend the N-S line to the West or East, or both?
\nThe quick one has already scanned the topographic maps and understands that there is a river and river valley N-S between where UA stands today and down south of Melitopol.<\/p>\n

On the East side of the river valley there are heights that RU has definitely fortified.<\/p>\n

They need to get down just south of Melitopol at the height of Mordynivka to prevent RU from crossing the rivers\/streams\/waterways. They are not Dnipro-wide but they are an obstacle.<\/p>\n

One goes down on the West side of the rivers and passes larger communities like Melitopol but sets up flank protection against them.<\/p>\n

Then one can defend to the East with a river between themselves and the Russian team if they want to try a counterattack. From the eastern side.<\/p>\n

Now there is a considerable number on the West side of this line, +15,000 maybe + what is in defense in Melitopol but they shake that a bit by crossing the Dnipro at Khakovka or north of Khakovka before this advance starts.<\/p>\n

A tall order absolutely but doable.<\/p>\n

If one tries to drive the wedge down on the East side of the rivers, one is too close to high terrain that I assume the Russians have fortified, then it is better to take the high terrain instead \u2013 next attack vector.<\/p>\n

You avoid Tokmak, you avoid Melitopol.<\/p>\n

You can simulate an offensive towards the South from Khakovka to confuse things etc.<\/p>\n

Quite quickly, the units on the \u201cwrong side\u201d of UA will probably choose to retreat down towards Crimea when it gets too chaotic.
\nYes, there is a lot of dug-in defense in this area but you start by going around Vasylivka and its natural defense a bit eastward, you also don\u2019t go on Tokmak but drive a wedge between.<\/p>\n

Move towards Polohy \u2013 <\/p>\n

Then we have the \u201cin-between\u201d option, get up on the dominating terrain at Polohy and then take all the dominating terrain southwards and have fire control over Berdyansk \u2013 smaller fortifications marked on the map but taking dominating terrain is never fun \u2013 ask the Russians or the Dien Ben Phu defenders. But you have better ground bearing on the heights and if the Russians are low on infantry, you can probably push through on sheer strength?<\/p>\n

Above all, then you have dominating terrain that is easy to defend in all directions?<\/p>\n

Since we have quite a lot of fighting around\/about Polohy, that signals something, right?<\/p>\n

The Russians also fled Schechvenkove and Tochmaka at some point as Erik14 reminded \u2013 located right in this dominating terrain.<\/p>\n

There seems to be less dug-in defense in this area but that is probably due to natural defense in place I guess?
\nSomewhere near Novosoldatske or Mykolaivka behind the river\/streams is probably a suitable attack target A?<\/p>\n

Go east of Volnovakha \u2013<\/p>\n

Alternative three which will cost me a five hundred I don\u2019t have in the electric underclass\u2019s promised life.<\/p>\n

East of Volnovakha there are Novotroitske and Dochuchajevsk.<\/p>\n

You take the terrain up to these two natural defense communities and then defend the river from Novotroitske \u2013 Vuhledar and Novomykalivka \u2013 Olynivka \u2013 Dochuchajevsk.<\/p>\n

Now you have a fortified horseshoe in dominating terrain and can go southeast.<\/p>\n

Now I assume that this area further south is among the least fortified partly due to the unit maps but also maps with defensive positions that have circulated.<\/p>\n

The idea is to get a very rapid advance towards Visele\/Kalmiuske and then turn south along natural obstacles like the rivers and stop when you have the NE road under fire control, 3 km for tanks or 20 km for indirect fire.<\/p>\n

Now you have natural obstacles to organize defense behind to the West, East, and North.<\/p>\n

This is the shortest route and also the least fortified and thinnest defended BUT it is easiest to reach from Donetsk and Mariupol so it can probably be subjected to quite heavy Russian counterattacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:51<\/h2>\n

Diversion preceding the Azov thrust \u2013 <\/p>\n

To succeed, it is important not to do like the Russians and focus on one target at a time and also have long intervals between attempts so the defender has time to move the same unit to the next contact point \u2013 Lex the Russians.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut is a very low-hanging fruit and success there immediately creates a threat against Horlivka which is surprisingly poorly defended on the unit maps. <\/p>\n

If you conduct an offensive from Chasiv Yar\/Ivanivske and north of Bakhmut from Pryvillia with attack objectives Pykovske, Zaitseve, and Klymove you have encircled a larger number.<\/p>\n

You can also try to encircle the whole Soledar \u2013 Krasna Hora bulge through a second wedge down from Berestove- Bilohorivka (there are many such communities!).<\/p>\n

The charm of Wagner is that they are infantry \u2013 they are driven forward in buses and then go on foot.<\/p>\n

UA has 15-20 brigades in this whole area of which two are Tank brigades.
\nRU has 7-8 of which a number are probably quite worn out.<\/p>\n

Then you can probably figure out why they hold Avdiivka \u2013 there they create a threat against the city of Donetsk which is a high-value target. Attacking RU units in the area are tired but there is a formidable defense of the city of Donetsk. So it is not an offensive aimed at taking the city of Donetsk but a threat against the city of Donetsk.<\/p>\n

You can insert company-sized units from several different brigades simulating a buildup of forces for example and move around a bit in different directions.<\/p>\n

Then of course you hold Bilohorivka and the Kreminna forests for a reason \u2013 if you get a breakthrough there and can threaten Severedonetsk, the city of Luhansk is also threatened.<\/p>\n

Now the quick one realizes that as soon as the extent at Bakhmut is dealt with, you can move a number of brigades north up towards Bilohorivka.<\/p>\n

Between Soledar \u2013 Bilohorivka the Russian forces are strikingly weak but then they have the problem of crossing from Lysychansk to Severedonetsk.<\/p>\n

Severedonetsk is potentially (reasonably) well defended.
\nAnd the Siversky Donets is no longer frozen\u2026<\/p>\n

What happens if the front at Soledar collapses instead and they go south of the Siversky Donets eastwards straight towards the city of Luhansk?<\/p>\n

Now the quick-footed one thinks again that Bakhmut merges with this, which is true \u2013 one attack vector is down towards Horlivka but you cannot go straight towards Popasna and get stuck in the old ceasefire line (unless it is completely undefended of course\u2026) so it is probably appropriate to go north of Popasna.<\/p>\n

RU will send units from Donetsk towards north of Horlivka so a defense is also required to the south in the Bakhmut area.<\/p>\n

We know there is a “Wagner line” south of the Siversky Donets but we also know that UA has more bridge layers and mine mortars than they can handle.<\/p>\n

Since the Russians have concentrated forces in northern Luhansk, Severedonetsk and Bakhmut it is likely that they are low on units in defense in this attack vector.<\/p>\n

-Now they have opened a threat against the city of Luhansk!<\/p>\n

These three threats must be countered by the Russians with reinforcements they do not have \u2013 they must pull units in panic from northern Luhansk and the southern front.<\/p>\n

If they then open up by crossing the Dnieper at Khakovka or north of Khakovka to then follow up with one or several of the attack vectors against Azov, I at least believe the Russians will not be able to hold out more than momentarily.<\/p>\n

They simply do not have elite units to manage the defense and somewhere here the Russian command is now sitting and googling asylum instead of losing the war. They spend all their time figuring out how Google Translate works so they can understand how to bypass asylum reasons \u2013 the capsizing ship that is the Russian army is completely without a captain as torpedo after torpedo hits midships.<\/p>\n

They also open active trolling against Belarus and Belgorod \u2013 posting videos of Belarusian soldiers in Belarus with messages about revolution and the same around Belgorod with Russian volunteers and simulating a threat against Belgorod (without UA fighting on Russian soil).<\/p>\n

There are explosions all the way up in Moscow (we all understand that last time this happened it was a beta test).<\/p>\n

They also try to coordinate increased pressure in Georgia with this.<\/p>\n

All with the purpose of preventing the Russians from sending their last reserves to UA and to overload Russian decision-making.<\/p>\n

Round 2 after the Azov strike \u2013 <\/p>\n

They have now trapped maybe 50,000 on Crimea, they have opened threats against Horlivka, the city of Luhansk and the city of Donetsk and defending Russians focus on these areas.<\/p>\n

Worried Russians are now also starting to set up defenses in Rostov-na-Don.<\/p>\n

RU has presumably scraped together available units for the W-E defensive line at Luhansk, at Horlivka and the city of Donetsk \u2013 they have mainly been moved down from northern Luhansk which is the only reserve they have left to draw from.<\/p>\n

-Now they are retaking northern Luhansk which has been weakened even more in a shining offensive that would have made Patton despise everything Ukrainian and stop eating pirogies (I simplify, have not had time to look at that area in detail).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TheSpiralGrows\/status\/1621584464651370496?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Round 3-<\/p>\n

If we even get to a round three, first the Crimea Russians have to drive over the bridge like car thieves completely voluntarily through some old-fashioned Ukrainian psyops \u2013 <\/p>\n

\u201cyou have one week to leave Crimea then we blow up the bridge and we take no prisoners or alternatively The Hague for every soldier.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time they start a pre-attack that feels right into the bone marrow all over Crimea.<\/p>\n

As a bonus they will probably get rid of civilian Russians in the process too \u2013 those who thought Crimea belonged to them.
\nZelensky sleeps with Sun Tzu under his pillow just like Patton did.<\/p>\n

For this exercise you need some mechanized battalion holding the land bridge to Crimea, an artillery brigade and a couple of drone units.<\/p>\n

In the northern part of the front there is now heavy pressure against the W-E defensive line through the city of Luhansk.<\/p>\n

In the N-S frontline there is now full pressure between Horlivka \u2013 Donetsk.<\/p>\n

They maintain the pressure\/threat without running in and dying in combat in towns in big cities.<\/p>\n

In the south they then turn north and go along the UA land border east of the city of Mariupol and work their way north BEHIND all defenses to liberate the darkest Donbass.<\/p>\n

In this area there is basically no defense or prepared defense at present, and there will be even less defense then.<\/p>\n

The quick-footed one now realizes that UA has all the brigades that attacked at the southern front freed up and can redirect them for this offensive \u2013 15-20 brigades.<\/p>\n

UA can thus bypass the units and concentrate 3 times to get local force superiority in this series of offensives.<\/p>\n

Game over sometime this summer (and summer is long in Ukraine\u2026). It can also end anytime before this plays out if the bubble list kicks in, it is boiling right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:54<\/h2>\n

Ukraine has the numbers, the weapons, and the will and against them they have an opponent with too low numbers, ammunition shortage and poor morale and who so far has proven terrible at quick maneuvers and been ridiculously easy to get inside the decision circle on.<\/p>\n

New mobilized from the 400,000 they are supposed to mobilize will not get out to the defense before it is too late.<\/p>\n

I would not be surprised if Russian units start spontaneously fleeing to safety in Russia when it really starts to burn rather than guaranteed death ahead \u2013 I think the Crimea Russians will stay in Rostov-na-Don, all vehicles get sugar in the tank?<\/p>\n

For those who consider this unreasonable, wishful thinking and free fantasies, can you please explain how the Russians could get the same advance with only 190,000 soldiers in February 2022 \u2013 and why Ukraine could not now succeed with the same trick with a significantly higher number?<\/p>\n

And then why the Russians who have already lost 40% of conquered territory previously could not leave the remaining conquered territory now when it is peak season for offensive operations \u2013 do they have something now that they did not have then, you think?<\/p>\n

Just saying no all the time has constantly proven to be wrong but it is a fairly easy position to take since it has not played out yet.<\/p>\n

Since Crimea will empty itself completely on its own, this remaining area is smaller than what UA has already liberated, and they did that before full mobilization, additional training, all Western weapons AND captured better Russian weapons.<\/p>\n

If they have already managed half they will naturally manage the other half when the Russians are in even worse shape and they themselves are considerably stronger.<\/p>\n

Then it may happen that Horlivka collapses completely, that 1st and 2nd Army corps lay down their arms, that DPR negotiates to surrender Donetsk in exchange for sparing the city and all that \u2013 then it will go even faster in a positive direction.<\/p>\n

I have just learned the term Zugzwang and that is exactly what the Russians are stuck in already even if they do not understand it yet. Whichever way they turn from now on the situation will only worsen.<\/p>\n

They peaked during the winter offensive and are now on a rapidly declining and very slippery slope.<\/p>\n

We wish Putin and his barbarian followers a real crushing defeat, a bleak spring, and no, this will not turn into a long war \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Here is the reason why the USA always wins \u2013 the ability to improvise.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/1629954451111923716?s=46&t=beL6kW-agXBFZcIgTRTpMQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Ending with the below, absolutely historic writing and the fact that the president of the world’s largest country by area, which is part of the G20 and supposed to hold the gavel in the UN Security Council, is now a wanted war criminal is hysterically funny \u2013 made my Friday, I couldn\u2019t stop laughing before I fell asleep on the couch around 9:00 PM.<\/p>\n

Finally, Putin has been humiliated exactly as he deserves, I suspect that Solros2022 is silent because he hasn\u2019t sobered up yet so he can find the keyboard.<\/p>\n

Dengamle wherever you are probably took a walk with the walker to the morning drink.<\/p>\n

A bit of signal politics \u2013 this comes the week before Xi Jinping is supposed to visit Putin in person, will he do it?
\n(Is association with a war criminal a crime)?<\/p>\n

Internally in Russia \u2013 weakened Putin, absolutely.<\/p>\n

Sanctions \u2013 will only be lifted if there are no open cases in The Hague.<\/p>\n

Others in the elite \u2013 leaking under the table that if you don\u2019t end the war, arrest warrants will also appear for you in The Hague.
\nA great humiliation for Putin this is.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/AnonOpsSE\/status\/1636765214094901256?s=20<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Teoyaomiquu\/status\/1636760087615225856?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Halfway through 1917 according to Erik14 who has seen a couple of revolutions during his lifetime.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1636865974476451840?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

To summarize
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/BBCSteveR\/status\/1636822839096655873?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05<\/h2>\n

An Estonian you\u2019d want to have with you on the boat \ud83d\udc4d
\n(do you want to keep your boat spot Dengamle?)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/michaeldweiss\/status\/1636847034983501825?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46<\/h2>\n

11:09 \u2013 to the informed one, if they had enough, would they have had anti-tank weapons in the front line?<\/p>\n

You can probably hide RPGs and anti-tank rounds in covered trenches but the anti-tank missiles are likely spotted quickly by drones.<\/p>\n

In Bakhmut according to SVD there were observation drones everywhere and I really think part of the pre-attack is to locate RPGs and anti-tank missiles.<\/p>\n

Then you have to hit the target too and that\u2019s not the easiest, and when you are in combat position you suddenly become exposed to drone grenades and air bursts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:30<\/h3>\n

MRF<\/p>\n

-haven\u2019t I already covered the numbers, the materiel, and the ammunition countless times?
\nDo I have to do it every time, feels almost like you\u2019re deliberately giving me more work here \ud83d\ude00
\nNot every day can be a blank slate and we start completely from scratch, feels a bit tiresome.<\/p>\n

Of course I had anticipated your post about free fantasies, daydreams, and now Monopoly (which was creative I must admit) below but you went for this post instead.<\/p>\n

Russia did the same conscription trick with 190,000 men, why can\u2019t Ukraine do it with higher numbers and better materiel?<\/p>\n

Do you consider Russia more competent than Ukraine here?<\/p>\n

Russia has already abandoned 40% of the conquered territory.
\nWhy don\u2019t you think they will abandon the rest, do they have something now that they didn\u2019t have then?<\/p>\n

What then?<\/p>\n

We know Ukraine has higher numbers, better trained soldiers, and more materiel than a year ago.<\/p>\n

What do the Russians have more of than a year ago in your opinion?
\nThey don\u2019t have their experienced units.
\nThey don\u2019t have better materiel.
\nThey have ammunition shortages according to countless Telegram videos and most serious analysts.<\/p>\n

What wonder weapons do they have besides what they don\u2019t have, do you think?<\/p>\n

Then you insist on your \u201cquantity is a quality in itself\u201d but don\u2019t want to discuss that the Russians are not mobilizing.
\nIf this quantity isn\u2019t in the trenches, it\u2019s not a quality in itself, right? It must logically come from the population pool into the trenches \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

You\u2019re becoming quite alone in the world believing that Ukraine won\u2019t liberate its country or will be forced to give up. If you want to avoid a lot of anxiety and sleepless nights, you can come over to the bright side which is much more fun than that which looks dark.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m saving a boat spot for you if you ever get saved \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:35<\/h3>\n

I will unregister from Cornucopia forever if Ukraine gives up or doesn\u2019t reach the partial goal of the borders before 24 Feb 2022 \u2013 that\u2019s how sure I am \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

One thing you are not allowed to do \u2013 later this spring or summer start writing that now the situation is different and it looks bright for Ukraine but that it was only then you could see it and that everything before was dreams and guesses. Then Johan will point out that you didn\u2019t manage to put the puzzle pieces together for over a year and that it wasn\u2019t the situation that was wrong \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h2>\n

Helloooo thread \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc47
\n(a peace offering from you-know-who)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1637102754526121987?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:10<\/h3>\n

They have swapped land grab for gentle easing of sanctions and dropping the investigation in The Hague.
\nReally Russian strength we see right now \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:18<\/h2>\n

Here you have a short summary of the war and how it\u2019s going for Putin, well worth two minutes of your life \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/BurggrabenH\/status\/1637106210607431680?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:21<\/h3>\n

In two months they\u2019ll be asking for help to defend themselves against Ukraine on Twitter \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:25<\/h2>\n

What do you think about the Russian on the street and that Putin is a wanted war criminal?<\/p>\n

After all, it\u2019s a dog-eat-dog society and something like that is still showing weakness, right?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking now when they are going to arm another half a million citizens?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:47 One can now consider that pre-combat preparations for the offensive have begun and that there are also reconnaissance battles 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