{"id":7703,"date":"2023-03-21T09:48:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-21T08:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:52:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:52:47","slug":"2023-03-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Brilliant, then we have clarified the replenishment rate that has been much discussed.<\/p>\n

According to Wikipedia, the autumn mobilization ended on October 28, 2022, so they have mobilized 100,000 soldiers since then (soon).<\/p>\n

If we take from January 6 when the Russian winter offensive started, they have almost compensated for the losses with 60,000 new soldiers.<\/p>\n

Since this is the only hard figure we have, maybe we should take it as a starting point?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

I calculated a monthly average of how much they are still losing further down (twice, moreover.. \ud83d\ude42 ) but only starting from January 1.<\/p>\n

Maybe the same calculation exercise should be done from November 1 as well if you want to keep track of the total..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This morning, yesterday’s post was released from WordPress quarantine in yesterday’s thread 2023-03-20 09:35 \u2013 09:35. There was a discussion about the FSB \u2013 Wagner connection, that NATO is deploying 300,000 soldiers against Russia’s western border and that there are five brigades in reserve at the southern front + two marine brigades and 20 at the contact lines.<\/p>\n

A thought that struck me is how effective the drone weapon has been \u2013 one unit takes out 10 tanks during one night shift \u2013 a single unit.<\/p>\n

And in extension, that civilian initiatives have made a big difference in this war from donations, large and small, all the way up to drones for Ukraine \u2013 organizations and that crowdfunded satellite.<\/p>\n

The drones take out tanks, take out Russians in trenches, have real-time intelligence for attacking Ukrainian units, send target coordinates in real time to Art-Uber and so on, everything is wizard level.<\/p>\n

The drone weapon has made a difference and it has made a difference because Ukraine has been able to supply the numbers that the Russians could not manage and that is probably largely due to private initiatives.<\/p>\n

Sure, we have the 2,500 kamikaze drones and it would be fun to get a total figure on drones delivered through private initiatives but I think domestic UA production has surely also gotten help from enthusiasts. It’s not just purchases and drone school, it’s know-how and materials for own production as well.<\/p>\n

It feels good to have been able to contribute to the war in this way through, for my part, drones4ukraine even though life in the electricity underclass has made the donations highly symbolic.<\/p>\n

A civil war \u2013 almost like the popular movement and communism the Russians have imagined in all their revolutions they have been involved in over the years and now they got it right in the face, and it was real.<\/p>\n

The fact is that the whole conflict since 2014 has been a people’s uprising against a corrupt and fascist system and the citizens in the free West rallied faster than their governments \u2013 you almost have to search to find a better sunshine story on popular revolution for a good cause. Lenin’s mummified corpse probably spins in the mausoleum out of jealousy. He murdered several millions without even coming close to this.<\/p>\n

This blog has probably donated a few crowns through the war and since the drone weapon has been so effective it should not be underestimated. Otherwise, in war, it is usually said that it does not matter for the course except if you are on site \u2013 what can the little person do in big sweeping world events.<\/p>\n

In this war, the little person could buy drones that reasonably have taken out hundreds of tanks if not more?<\/p>\n

Ukraine fights better every day on all levels. Something that was lost in the numbers and materiel discussion is competence. Since reverse Darwinism applies for the Russians where the spearhead takes proportionally more damage than the rear, it is likely that they have for quite some time been severely short also on vehicle crews, batch leaders, company commanders, platoon leaders and specialists.<\/p>\n

It is probably most evident with tanks\/IFVs and in units larger than platoon attacks.<\/p>\n

Now they have some luck in misfortune because they will go on defense which requires much less experience and training.<\/p>\n

But there is also a task force behind that will try to push back UA breakthroughs when they come and they need to master company and battalion combat and have competent crews for heavy vehicles \u2013 they are very heavily decimated and a significantly smaller threat now than in December. It’s not just that there are enough modified T62 and BT50 with smoke mushroom turrets, they must also be able to be led in combat both individually and in groups.<\/p>\n

A tank with a bad order and untrained crew is just a big target.<\/p>\n

On the subject that things are going sh1t for Russia, UBS has started mass-checking Russian bank customers.<\/p>\n

Almost makes you suspect that the Credit Suisse case led to someone being able to put in a hard demand on UBS? (I’m not saying the crisis and takeover were coordinated\/created but that takeover went more than suspiciously fast\/smooth and then immediately all Russian accounts are under review)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1638024843927994368?s=46&t=SRC-VOh8uACwn0msl3kFDA<\/a><\/p>\n

And the night legend Erik14 posted a note about Chinese company stock prices dropping when Xi was in Russia \u2013 the market is both judge and executioner and does not wait and watch it seems.<\/p>\n

I believe China is balancing on a very tightrope here and the dictatorship is very economically vulnerable so this visit is probably the last lifeline China tries. It’s a bit like acupuncture, the West can with very small legal means send an overly clear signal to China that they can’t afford to brush off \u2013 my opinion.<\/p>\n

Rybar nails the coffin for the mobilization, his view is that they try everything else before general mobilization and that is done only when it is too late.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1637896042313142272?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding Bakhmut, I think Gregg has been vindicated?<\/p>\n

Then Rob Lee’s analysis is very well written and roughly what we think (I was probably third on that yesterday in the thread but that was still better than being fifth in the picture with Putin on his knees in front of Xi \u2013 which by the way is now confirmed as an absolute truth, he really did that and still has anxiety and knee pain).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/RALee85\/status\/1637880591898095618?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

The meeting with Xi was a demonstration that Putin is broken, it was his “Biden moment” and he barely dared to look Xi in the eyes.<\/p>\n

There is absolutely a phase two here and that is that China does not grow too strong so that you have just replaced one criminal clan with another, which is also stronger.<\/p>\n

Vuhledar does not end, now there should be a couple of new brigades attacking in that area I have gathered. The burn rate down there is extreme.<\/p>\n

Then MatsExtrude has flagged Avdiivka earlier and the undersigned did a quick map check and dismissed everything as unfounded but the Russians did not listen to that at all, have had some success and now taken all of Krashnohorivka.<\/p>\n

Feels like the wrong time to give up Avdiivka so probably there will be a more intense defense of it?<\/p>\n

I base that on the fact that since UA wants to go on the offensive, every larger community they give up now is something that will cost them 5 times more to retake later this spring I think.<\/p>\n

It also seems to be “regular” Russian units if you interpret the unit maps, and very armor-heavy according to Accentmannen.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s starting to feel like a repeat of the miracle at Vuhledar where they broke through brigades (reduced but that\u2019s probably established now) in just over a week.<\/p>\n

The northern extent N looks seriously risky\u2026<\/p>\n

You should always listen to Matsextrude, that\u2019s today\u2019s lesson \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I\u2019m pretty sure that for the Russians to launch a renewed spring offensive, they need to mobilize a large number beyond what they have today, the swirl in my head says so.<\/p>\n

This number needs to be trained and if it\u2019s to be better than infantry, they probably need at least 5 months?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probably possible to calculate with certainty the Russian capability to go on the offensive this spring and summer.<\/p>\n

That might not stop them from doing it anyway, and going to their deaths, but the chance of success would then be even lower than the winter offensive.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine, it\u2019s about being smart here, which they have shown high capability for, and they probably need to throw the Russians off balance through a series of offensives where they are weak as well as maximum chaos with the drone weapon and liberation movements in Belarus, Russia, and Georgia.<\/p>\n

Deploying 300,000 NATO soldiers along Russia\u2019s western border is infinitely smart.<\/p>\n

I think combatting logistics is ongoing constantly?<\/p>\n

And I think front-line pre-emptive strikes have started together with reconnaissance?<\/p>\n

More than us are probably sleeping poorly worried about the spring offensive, I guess, but it\u2019s hard to see that they haven\u2019t prepared maximally here and are thinking on all levels about how they can amplify disruption and successes. It looks very smart and well thought out from where we sit in the stands looking down into the sandbox, I think?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

China still manufactures a lot that is bought by the West?
\nThe country\u2019s welfare is built on Western companies producing in the country and their own exports?<\/p>\n

They have just seen Russia go from 100 to 0 in one year in their raw material exports.<\/p>\n

If I were China (which I\u2019m not) I would have thought about what it would mean if my exports went from 100 to 0 during 2023?<\/p>\n

Then I would have considered whether I could hurt the West more than it would hurt me. The conclusion would be that the West survived the gas weapon and the lack of oil deliveries, so probably the West can manage without Alibaba and plastic toys.<\/p>\n

Then I would have called some heavy market players and asked how the visit to Russia was received by the financial sector.<\/p>\n

I think China will keep itself really grounded and not actively increase Russia\u2019s military capacity or put a spoke in the wheel for a Ukrainian smashing victory.<\/p>\n

However, they will want Russia as a raw material colony after the war and sell plastic toys to them on Alibaba.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what I think?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Probably off-topic but a question \u2013<\/p>\n

Now artillery ammunition\/ammo is to be produced in very large quantities.<\/p>\n

Which ingredient do we think is scarce and will increase in price? I\u2019m thinking companies that have mining operations for these materials should have a bright future?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I think this has been mentioned but it\u2019s that long-range Ukrainian drone up to 1000km that you can probably get with quite a lot of firepower?<\/p>\n

Do you see how many launch ramps there are in the video, 5-6, and you can move them as far forward as you want towards the border or active front because the launch ramps are mobile.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/GirkinGirkin\/status\/1638021774871871488?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tupolev_Tu-141<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s supposed to be easy to shoot down but the Russian air defense probably leaves quite large gaps and they probably use them there, one can guess?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Considering they managed to land a drone on the Mainstay dome, I think not much within 1000km is safe?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100 Most things are going like clockwork now!<\/p>\n

Terrible maybe, but you start to feel a bit like a child the days before Christmas.<\/p>\n

#SpringIsComing<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Great, and then they sent a minister who came to meet Xi at the airport.<\/p>\n

Commented yesterday by some bright person in the thread but the Chinese are incredibly particular about picking order, if you sit at lunch with them the top boss sits in a place where he can see the door, then the rank order follows down from there.<\/p>\n

If they respect you, you get the door seat, if you want to mess with them, which is always fun, you go and sit in the door seat before they get there.<\/p>\n

If you take a project manager for a larger project coming to the country we worked in, the project leader and his closest will disappear to pick them up at the airport even if there was a fire in their bedroom.<\/p>\n

Before that, they have bought some ridiculously expensive watch for 100,000 SEK that they have asked everyone if it\u2019s good enough and you have looked dismissively at it and said you would never wear one even if you got it.<\/p>\n

Then all attention is on the project manager until he leaves, the client, construction management and consultant do not exist.<\/p>\n

The red carpet is rolled out with extra everything that no one knew existed before in terms of food and the client gets upset because he understands he has been treated as second class the whole project even though he pays for everything.<\/p>\n

That Xi is received by a minister, feels uncomfortable at a meeting and then eats KFC in the hotel room is hysterically funny.<\/p>\n

My experience is that nothing is discussed at the formal meeting and that decisions are made at the dinner after a hell of a lot of gambes \u2013 has Putin been out drinking muay thai with Xi or did they leave each other after the meeting?<\/p>\n

Or on topic, have the Russian and Chinese delegations been out drinking properly after the daytime meetings?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I sat at a Christmas table with the usual mix of colleagues working in Sweden and we got into tolerance for different cultures and all that since a couple of different cultures were represented \u2013 very polite and I have always worked in teams where almost every person represented a culture\/country\/affiliation when sitting on projects around the world. I felt I was doing well.<\/p>\n

Everything went well except I got tired of running back and forth and filled my plate like a pyramid and the whole office turned their heads when I walked by and looked disapprovingly. The person next to me had even arranged the plate better than how the Christmas buffet was arranged.<\/p>\n

So far I was quite satisfied with my effort but then China came up and since the schnapps had been going around I gave my whole experience of this quite fascinating people\/country\/culture in a short and quite spicy version. I probably broke all etiquette rules at once and yet everything was absolutely true.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

According to Drones4Ukraine, the drones last about a month so the Russians are probably starting to have trouble keeping up?<\/p>\n

If they had succeeded as well with drone-dropped wing grenades as UA has, we would have known about it.<\/p>\n

Maybe both the ability to adapt and the equipment?<\/p>\n

In Bakhmut, someone wrote that the air was full of drones from both sides, so sure, the Russians have drones, but I have the impression that UA has more and uses them better.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, wouldn’t Slava have posted as many drone videos as we see on the UA forums?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

The question is how many they might have (and if they possibly could have resumed production).
\nThey can surely cause quite a bad atmosphere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Two weeks was the average lifespan. Those that actually lasted a month were still due to be scrapped because by then they were worn out.<\/p>\n

Now BORJESON was referring to the somewhat more advanced Orlan drones used to find targets for artillery. The more advanced ones can apparently also designate the target with a laser for precision-guided ammunition (although whether the Russians have really succeeded with that is unknown).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

-Before the end of March, there is no point in starting because RU is still pushing hard.
\n-The ground probably already supports ptgb but tanks have problems?
\n-Hard deliveries, as I understand it, are largely completed?
\n-Frontline pre-emptive strikes have probably started?
\n-Backline strikes have been ongoing for a while, never noted the date for the 12 targets in Mariupol which was probably the starting shot.<\/p>\n

Not many weeks left, I think, 2-3, and it will probably be a gradual increase?<\/p>\n

Then maybe the Russians continue with what they have left and if so, they can reasonably do that, but I see no reason why UA would wait until, for example, June, by then RU will have strengthened from the lowest point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

The question is whether to base it on the culmination point regardless of everything else… And when has the Russian reached it?<\/p>\n

Bakhmut feels like we are there. But then we have Avdiivka… It can go on for another month or more… When they have played out, maybe they have the strength to attack somewhere else. Feels difficult to try to find that point (some points can be troublesome in that way).<\/p>\n

I think more like you that it is the factors you list that should decide.<\/p>\n

Here is some reading about the culmination point:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/kkrva.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/Artiklar\/113\/kkrvaht_3_2011_6.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here a somewhat younger Putin praises the ICC on site in The Hague (almost\u2026).
\nDarth Putin is pretty sharp.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/francis_scarr\/status\/1638102743167401985?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This one was even better because you see Putin\u2019s face when he is kneeling but maybe it has already been posted?
\nMore like evidence than a guess.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/realTecGyver\/status\/1637908763616194565?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

(You can never mock Putin enough).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Really fun!<\/p>\n

Wonder if he can find anything about Putin when he inaugurated a Solzhenitsyn museum (the one with The Gulag Archipelago) a few years ago.<\/p>\n

Apparently, Putin and the Russians used to be very proud of Solzhenitsyn but now suddenly you are not allowed to read him anymore and his books are being removed. The Gulag Archipelago is portrayed as pure lies that smear the fantastic Soviet Union.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Fun, but not much as evidence \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s going to be boring to sit in a T90 going forward, depleted uranium ammunition incoming \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1638160407012540419?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

And Abrams seems to be arriving earlier according to the White House spokesperson \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1638161087332769792?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Addition to Lunation above with a trench full of Russian soldier corpses.
\nThis is completely incomprehensible, how do you go and die like this?
\nWARNING issued but from a long distance.<\/p>\n

If you hadn\u2019t seen this yourself, you wouldn\u2019t believe it\u2019s true, they are dying in heaps.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Rinegati\/status\/1638159941666996226?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

This is apparently how they kill them, they bunch up like that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Rinegati\/status\/1638177370858483715?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

WARNING for Russians in a trench being wiped out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yeah, that one wasn\u2019t so good, source criticism is good, I am now fully source-critical again \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Also remember that it is important to sort sources properly!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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