{"id":7707,"date":"2023-03-22T09:19:37","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T08:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:53:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:53:26","slug":"2023-03-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I know this has been posted before but I didn\u2019t see it until now, slow is not best in any way.<\/p>\n

Girkin is basically angry because Putin has botched a war \u2013 he wanted more and better fighting. Girkin is an escalation from Putin \u2013 something worse (but we already knew that from the thread).<\/p>\n

He is completely disrespectful towards Putin and calls him all sorts of things \u2013 basically everyone would have been at least arrested for less?<\/p>\n

In a country like Russia, this feels highly explosive and after the interview he went down to his local Starbucks for an iced coffee and some cigarettes.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t order a murder on Girkin because then you die is probably the only conclusion here?
\n(I know he has armed bodyguards but you can overwhelm him with superior numbers).<\/p>\n

Controlled opposition my ass (that\u2019s my opinion), this is hard opposition against Putin and Prigozhin is on that side too.
\nSince Girkin is FSB and Prigozhin gets equipment from FSB, the only logical conclusion is that it is the FSB that is in opposition to Putin?<\/p>\n

This is now partly reinforced because Putin broke out the Rosgvardia from an agency and created his own militia a few years ago \u2013 not all armed forces are controlled by agencies anymore.<\/p>\n

And then some private army on top of that (haven\u2019t figured out his 40,000-strong army yet, can someone help?)<\/p>\n

To me this feels like a huge crack in the wall that we look for every day.
\nPatrushev is supposed to be the FSB candidate?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1637950468952391681?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Now the good part of the world is sitting with half huge anxiety and half anticipation over Ukraine\u2019s spring offensive and it swings wildly every day. You oscillate between hope and despair might better describe what I wanted to say.
\nThese are not trivial matters at stake here, it\u2019s either pushing WW3 back into the closet or a global escalation and the UA spring offensive is what decides.<\/p>\n

One single straw for Putin and he takes it, in my UA war youth back in early spring 2022 I argued that you shouldn\u2019t give Putin reasons for a stab-in-the-back legend because it would escalate in the long run.<\/p>\n

Now even I, who am incurable, understand that the only thing that makes a difference is a humiliating defeat for Putin and then let what happens happen.<\/p>\n

China and some other rogue states are on the fence watching attentively.<\/p>\n

Those who will lie in the defense fortifications are mostly units with months of training and they probably try to keep experienced units behind as rapid reaction forces (again).
\nThey have probably seen combat to varying degrees but mostly it has been surviving running across an open field and managing to get back without dying.<\/p>\n

They are a group\/platoon with personal weapons, a light machine gun, some RPGs and anti-tank weapons if they\u2019re lucky.
\nCertainly half bad on ammunition, no communication backward and a minefield in front.
\nProbably no rotation and constantly hungry.<\/p>\n

Against them is Ukraine\u2019s elite with combat experience since 2014 who will make the breakthrough, first with pre-battle to get rid of the artillery, tough vehicles in defense and pesky drones dropping wing grenades on everything that moves.
\nStuka effect done \u2013 exhaustion level high.<\/p>\n

Then they probably soften up the target with direct tank fire as before.<\/p>\n

A mechanical assault is quite formidable, a tank sounds incredible and there is constant fire on the target. These are sound impressions that overwhelm and a threat perceived as very strong if you haven\u2019t trained against it.<\/p>\n

Against some defense in conscript service we went through light forest where they hadn\u2019t cleared fields of fire and the defense ran immediately. If you get inside the decision circle with mechanized forces it feels extremely threatening.
\nAlready before they start shooting you are worried when you see them advance.<\/p>\n

Most likely there will be air bursts when the group\/platoon goes up in firing positions if they have them, I would have done that, and we have seen them beta test different types of air bursts already.<\/p>\n

Then they have to get through the minefield which is probably the weak\/critical point but it can also happen that with bridge layers you can pass the minefield completely if you cross watercourses for example.
\nMines are always in short supply and they try to lay them in channeling terrain.<\/p>\n

Now the breakthrough is presumably carried out at a weak point.<\/p>\n

We have already seen drone grenades detonating mines and in that video you could see exactly where the mines were buried.
\nThe mine detonates and then probably a mine roller or mine plow goes first and as soon as they are through they move aside and presumably let the tank through or they use IFVs if they are short on tanks \u2013 Ukraine adapts constantly.<\/p>\n

While the mine plow\/mine roller moves forward, UA has real-time intelligence, wing grenade from drone ready, air bursts or guided 155mm ready and direct fire from autocannon and tank.
\nThe suppressive fire is not only frightening but also very effective.<\/p>\n

If they try to set up an anti-tank missile it\u2019s probably junk before they have even strapped it to the mount.<\/p>\n

They can probably get RPGs and anti-tank weapons off but then you have to aim well and now the defending Russians are probably quite scared.
\nEverything must be done on a broad front so that nearby fortifications can\u2019t shoot flanking fire without being suppressed.<\/p>\n

Then the 100kr (getting broke) question is whether the Russians lay mines directly adjacent to the fortifications or not because UA always unloads too far out compared to what we were taught. Here they basically drove right up to the fortifications before unloading (20m-40m or something) but they are a few hundred meters out or something, hard to know exactly.<\/p>\n

It is a very frightening experience to have all this coming at you and the chance that mobilized with 4-5 months of training can resist an effective defense is vanishingly small \u2013 if they don\u2019t panic they die.<\/p>\n

Or they die panicking.<\/p>\n

After the breakthrough the attacking party is probably at its most vulnerable, you stand in the defense you have and it is somewhat in the nature of the counterattack with the rapid reaction force to try to overwhelm the breakthrough and beat it before they spread out.<\/p>\n

I have thought that remotely laid mines can do wonders but then UA must not drive into them during their advance. Ideally you just want to lay them between the rapid reaction force and the breakthrough if you can.<\/p>\n

If you manage the rapid reaction force you are quite far in and jump into the Russian command decision circle.<\/p>\n

So far in the war they have solved it with a Russian version of retreat \u2013 leave everything that doesn\u2019t roll fast and flee.<\/p>\n

You should get through a couple of defensive lines on the southern front but there is always a weak point where you can bypass one and break through a weak one and then you are on the other side.<\/p>\n

If there are larger organized counterattacks because there are offensive reserves behind, the best solution is to break through at several points simultaneously so the Russians either have to spread out their units or concentrate on one and not be able to stop the others.<\/p>\n

They probably also make two holes per breakthrough to be on the safe side, as we learned from the Kos breach film.
\nYou remember this guy \u2013 there could be many such films in the future.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/PaulJawin\/status\/1564182512758394881?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

My interpretation of the Xi-Putin meeting is that China handled this surprisingly poorly. A large dose of dissonance.
\nI wonder if there hasn\u2019t been peace for too long and criminal cesspools like Putin and Xi have become comfortable and haven\u2019t needed to make an effort.
\nAfter all, since the 90s China has managed to get the entire West to move their factories to China, threaten its way in the Chinese Sea, constantly threaten Taiwan, half take over Africa, and generally behave like Russia.
\nI feel the statements did not come after reading the room correctly at all.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t believe the Chinese aggression power is magnitudes better than Russia\u2019s, and above all, it took only one country, Ukraine, to beat Russia thoroughly, so if China gets NATO against it, it\u2019s over pretty quickly.<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t be surprised in the least if we read about a Chinese real estate crash, bank runs, and general crisis in a few months. Lex Japan 90s.<\/p>\n

Xi is punching well above his weight class. This is very un-Chinese and I\u2019m quite surprised, not at all how I perceive them as people. I believe, just like the blogger and others, that they want Russia as a raw material colony and do not have violent imperial ambitions.<\/p>\n

Phase 2 will then be a stronger China that must be dealt with.<\/p>\n

A little source warning but according to this one RU is trying to pirate copy the M16
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1638200647005683712?s=46&t=Gbno0GYqbob_ZUKXzp7WVA<\/a><\/p>\n

This is how I have actually experienced RU against UA all the time \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/enezator\/status\/1638109730064195584?s=46&t=Gbno0GYqbob_ZUKXzp7WVA<\/a><\/p>\n

Watch this to the end and keep an eye on the guy who is going to put on a sweater. He could afford to go on vacation so you can guess the level of the talent reserve in the trenches.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/enezator\/status\/1637891765444157446?s=46&t=Gbno0GYqbob_ZUKXzp7WVA<\/a><\/p>\n

According to this one, whom I perceive as a serious source, RU plans to go on renewed offensive.
\nThat\u2019s great if they do, numbers and materiel are finite and the more they waste the better.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1638440969459625984?s=46&t=fjgNlC-5KpqqAjgHmQtOag<\/a><\/p>\n

If they had T80 and T90 to deploy to the fronts, they wouldn\u2019t have brought up limited transport or workshop capacity with T55, T62, and MT-50, right \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1638440969459625984?s=46&t=fjgNlC-5KpqqAjgHmQtOag<\/a><\/p>\n

Noticed that there was no beta test of western armor up in northern Luhansk, I thought the ground would still hold there but apparently they had no problem getting into Bakhmut, where I thought the ground still didn\u2019t hold \ud83d\ude00
\nBeta test for Leo in Bakhmut \u2013 woohoo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 There you go, finally!<\/p>\n

Can\u2019t stop laughing at the guy with the \u201csweater\u201d!
\nSomehow it feels a bit symbolic of how things are going for all of Russia. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Ouch, that\u2019s how we used to laugh at the Poles. He probably had drunk Russian vodka!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

In today\u2019s post above, one of the last links suggested that RU will try to continue the offensive.<\/p>\n

Of course, they do this to disrupt UA offensive while strengthening their own capability. They have probably also done a cost-benefit analysis and concluded that going on defense was worse?<\/p>\n

Or maybe it\u2019s simply Putin\u2019s demands being put into action?<\/p>\n

The problem after the winter offensive is that they haven\u2019t strengthened while they have postponed UA offensive, they have reached a new low point.<\/p>\n

If RU attacks and mobilizes and UA assesses that RU will come out stronger, they will probably go on their own offensive, I guess?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I really can\u2019t handle this, have I now gone and mocked that it\u2019s Poles who can\u2019t dress themselves \ud83d\ude28<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I apologize to all Poles for this unfair portrayal of dressing oneself, completely uncalled for.
\nGo Poland \ud83d\udc4c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

A pair of long johns on the head is completely normal in many cultures, you just have to wiggle through the fly first.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

*I apologize to all Polish citizens.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Good thing Matsextrude is sleeping so one has time to go through all the revised apologies before being subjected to consequences.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Oryx is hitting on T55 and he has a certain reputation to uphold.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/oryxspioenkop\/status\/1638472120534458368?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

But don\u2019t forget that the Russians have saved their best \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lions \u270a<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1638510667404541953?s=46&t=PQgW5Q4P3G8DvDN_LGl2ig<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:00 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Can\u2019t complain about you when I was about to laugh myself to death!\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russia = Chinese puppet state.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/watcherguru\/status\/1638349879171792896?s=46&t=PQgW5Q4P3G8DvDN_LGl2ig<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Is this what the Russian elite wants?
\nDo they accept it?<\/p>\n

Do the citizens of China accept this?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Oryx got a catastrophic failure.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/oryxspioenkop\/status\/1638474760215470080?s=46&t=PQgW5Q4P3G8DvDN_LGl2ig<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Quick macaroni above
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1638743842001387521?s=46&t=I63qt17V3H5mBmiIsmMCzA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Reading the comments, as usual, there are both praises and accusations.<\/p>\n

If he now chooses to ignore everything, it really says nothing.
\nIf he were honest, it\u2019s not surprising if he\u2019s tired of being accused.<\/p>\n

But he could of course also have chosen to \u201ctake the money and run\u201d..
\nBut if he really had gotten anywhere between 400k USD to 3m USD as claimed, one wonders why he\u2019s trying to sell his car for 12k USD..?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:23 \u2013 Johan No.1 I know this has been posted before but I didn\u2019t see it until now, slow is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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