{"id":7721,"date":"2023-03-30T09:36:29","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T07:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:55:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:55:02","slug":"2023-03-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

At least I\u2019m starting to get positive about Ukraine\u2019s spring offensive.<\/p>\n

There are huge amounts of strategic communication right now about columns with Western armor, Eastern armor, and armor in general, all equipped with extra gear and looking pretty ready to kill Russians in a trench.<\/p>\n

The other night Erik14 posted a video of rows of shooters standing and looking over a wide river \u2013 there\u2019s only the Dnieper.
\nAnd it keeps going like this\u2026<\/p>\n

The Russian soldiers will be burnt out from all the stress even before the offensive starts when they sit flipping between videos on Telegram in their trench with a muddy bottom still \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

If you remember a previous discussion about the bubble list, it was (from memory) that the rest of the elite in Russia have been told that they too will end up on sanctions and ICC lists and that the window to negotiate out of everything is closing.<\/p>\n

Then even a large oligarch understands that the negotiation chips they have today in the form of conquered territory will soon be scattered on the ground.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine throws out the Russian army, there\u2019s nothing left to negotiate about, right?<\/p>\n

Going from Londongrad and billions in Switzerland to a flight ban and renminbi must have shaken most of the elite quite a bit.<\/p>\n

The meeting with Xi Jinping was lukewarm at best if you interpret it kindly, and every oligarch was probably glued to the TV watching all the speeches.<\/p>\n

That Putin praises that all trade should be done in renminbi when a year ago they could channel billions through European banks must be quite a big blow.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think Russia is well on its way to turning inward, there are too many signs.<\/p>\n

Just listen to how Gerasimov maneuvered Sorovkin out and how Wagner and the army constantly undermine each other.
\nThat\u2019s naturally how it looks in the political leadership as well, and the tensions must be enormous now.<\/p>\n

Something will break but you can\u2019t predict outcomes from the bubble list, those are the rules, and the committee is dragging its feet far too long on that change.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut is set up for Wagner elimination, they have PTGBs (anti-tank guided missiles) in the area by the dozen and Wagner has shooters firing at everything that has arrived by buses. You never really know the situation on the ground but if the army abandoned Bakhmut to focus on Avdiivka, they probably took most of the heavy vehicles with them.<\/p>\n

On the southern front, reconnaissance battles are intensifying and pre-combat is in full swing, I think that\u2019s indisputable.<\/p>\n

And between Soledar \u2013 Siversk, UA achieved a breakthrough at Bilohorivka of 3.8 km \u2013 spectacular but also the situation the unit maps suggest \u2013 poorly defended area.<\/p>\n

Take a look at the unit maps and you\u2019ll see something fun, I think Militaryland has added all the new brigades now, haven\u2019t checked though, but there are 20 brigades not located at active fronts \u2013 mostly mechanized brigades.<\/p>\n

They have held the front without them and are pushing forward in Luhansk, have held Bakhmut and brought forward units for an offensive there, hold Avdiivka, and conduct aggressive reconnaissance battles on the southern front.<\/p>\n

The Russian team has become, if not completely passive, quite sluggish while still having Putin\u2019s whip cracking over them, which is significant.<\/p>\n

And beyond everything they have accomplished so far, there are 20 more brigades as a fully graspable offensive reserve (you remember previous discussions about the critical mass long being on the UA side, now you can see it on the unit maps, I think).<\/p>\n

And all the marine brigades are out of the active front, which is very telling and super smart \u2013 that\u2019s why they keep units down in Crimea now so the southern front becomes weaker.<\/p>\n

If you weren\u2019t excited before, it\u2019s hard to sit still this morning.<\/p>\n

We discussed for quite a while that Ukraine would cross the Dnieper and it would be fun if that materializes too \u2013 which it obviously will. What else would all the amphibious vehicles and bridge layers be for?<\/p>\n

That is, the bridge-laying equipment to cross wider watercourses.<\/p>\n

And the small river boats and all the other fun stuff that has been delivered, which we get bits of information about all the time.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1640828059317071872?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Opening a threat on the left bank of the Dnieper will immediately complicate things for the Russian combat leadership if they simultaneously try to hold on the southern front.<\/p>\n

Considering how much is moving south on the roads right now, you almost get the feeling that all terrain behind the southern front will be spontaneously evacuated lightning fast when UA gets going?<\/p>\n

When the chess move is delivered, it\u2019s delivered and then it\u2019s over (but the Russians will probably keep flailing for a while). Then the point is passed and all Putin can really do is leave Ukraine, but then Putin and Russia must understand this themselves too and so far they have been terrible at reading the room.<\/p>\n

It was Matsextrude who sensed yesterday that when UA starts, the Russian team will collapse like a sobering Russian.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking along similar lines but don\u2019t dare write anything like that for fear of fines for acute positivity and gross wishful thinking.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m quite convinced that we underestimate Ukraine but I\u2019m starting to wonder if we also overestimate the Russians badly here.<\/p>\n

If you try to underpin this reasoning from a military-technical perspective, it goes like this \u2013 we know the condition of the Russians but we overestimate them, we don\u2019t count all the heavy vehicles that are out of order in the rear, all non-combat injuries, the general combat value after a winter in the field, and if losses are higher than 1:1 + ammunition shortage. We also overestimate their defensive positions, this time it\u2019s not the VDV who built all the defenses but regular units or civilian contractors \u2013 there are plenty of weak points.
\nWe do this because we think no one can be this bad, it simply can\u2019t be.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine\u2019s part, the combat leadership are heavy consumers of omeprazole right now. They understand just like us that it\u2019s now or never to reach a decisive outcome. They take no risks and will strike with everything they have as hard as they can to avoid getting stuck dangling in barbed wire.<\/p>\n

It will be far more than actually needed but since it\u2019s new ground for them, and so much is at stake, they go all in with both belt and suspenders.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s offensive between Soledar \u2013 Bilohorivka also has another kicker, units on the wrong side of the Siversky Donets cannot easily reinforce the area. There should be significant movement here after Bakhmut is reasonably cleared.<\/p>\n

There will be surprises, we know since last autumn that they got 2,500 suicide drones and they have only been beta tested.<\/p>\n

Certainly a lot of domestic production and new deliveries since then.<\/p>\n

– And guided 155mm + more for HIMARS probably long-range. GLMDBS has been confirmed for delivery, for example\u2026
\n– They have their Tochka U, Grom, and something more.<\/p>\n

Rybar is completely silent.
\nWe haven’t heard from Girkin for a while?
\nWhat does Muntz say?<\/p>\n

We have worked out mid-April as a possible start date but also know that the ground already supports PTGB in Bakhmut and that UA has apparently been able to conduct reconnaissance battles with heavy vehicles on the southern front.<\/p>\n

So between today and mid-April, offensive operations should reasonably start on some front section?<\/p>\n

Apparently, Bulgaria still has enormous stocks of Eastern Bloc ammunition?
\nThey have gotten far too little credit for their ammunition contribution, I think, they kept Ukraine afloat at the beginning of the war and continue to deliver.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1640933576614051842?s=46&t=mjgG5UF1TTVdiwgiPft8UQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there have been drone swarms up, and here you have photos, I think Grankovitch was early on the ball about RPG shots.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1640933042884603905?s=46&t=mjgG5UF1TTVdiwgiPft8UQ<\/a><\/p>\n

We know that UA has bought parts for 100,000 drones from China and massively accelerated domestic production.
\nThey have beta-tested all kinds of drones and Russian air defense for a few months now.<\/p>\n

It would be completely logical that in addition to the 2,500 drones + more received from the West, they have produced as many as they can themselves.<\/p>\n

The drone weapon has been INSANELY effective, one drone group knocked out 10 tanks in one night shift, another 6 tanks.<\/p>\n

The only ones?<\/p>\n

Of course not, and if you unleash thousands, it\u2019s over before it even started.<\/p>\n

We already know from Armenia \u2013 Azerbaijan how well it works against Soviet doctrine, so it has been known for a couple of years, right?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard not to jump up and down right now \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100 <\/p>\n

Nice to see you starting to get positive about the spring offensive! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Girkin has completely given up, calls promoted officers snail-traitors and writes in capitals that the collapse is imminent.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1641383576343126018?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Pure joy to read Girkin\u2019s depressive outburst! <\/p>\n

If you didn\u2019t know he was an asshole, you could almost feel a little sympathy for him sitting there sulking against the wind. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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