{"id":7771,"date":"2023-04-07T09:56:26","date_gmt":"2023-04-07T07:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-07-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:45:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:45:55","slug":"2023-04-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-04-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today, when wishing Happy Easter, one also hopes that the Russians look extra deep into the mash barrel and that Ukraine comes up with something smart over the weekend.<\/p>\n

The legend Zelensky coins expressions that will become famous and earn their place in history books.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/FellaWanKenobe\/status\/1643753405280833536?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

China has not stopped making statements that take them further away from Russia, and Russia has apparently decided to meet these statements with their own statements that take them even further away from China than China\u2019s own attempts to distance itself from Russia \u2013 if I felt China threw Russia under the bus a few days ago, now I feel they have thrown Russia under the freight train.<\/p>\n

This one is hilarious \u2013 Xi smiles broadly unlike when he met Putin and the gist is \u2013 not my war, Putin has to sort out his own sh1t.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/clashreport\/status\/1643951568666886144?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think it can be misunderstood and that Macron doesn\u2019t smile is just some French disease, they have always looked like that since the Maginot Line fell.<\/p>\n

Here he does smile though so maybe it should be ignored but it was fun to write so it stayed.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/GlasnostGone\/status\/1644005886984175616?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Things are also scandalously bad for the Russians but we already knew that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/GlasnostGone\/status\/1644019297235132418?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

A while ago there were Twitter rumors that the army had abandoned Wagner in Bakhmut. After that, the flanks stopped but they started moving in the built-up area of Bakhmut. Gregg has written about reinforcements and the Twitter rumor below believes that (relative) elite units have now been rotated into Bakhmut to press on.<\/p>\n

He reasons just like us in the thread that if you burn through the offensive reserve now, there will be no one to plug the holes later when UA makes their breakthroughs.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1644226633195302912?s=46&t=vDGS6bMouSddfp7ds3rhYg<\/a><\/p>\n

If you remember the discussion about numbers, there were around 150,000 left before the September mobilization, which was saved all autumn until January 6.<\/p>\n

These 150,000 were basically the Russians\u2019 offensive reserve that they used at Kherson when UA broke through DPR\/LPR and newly mobilized defense, and it worked way too well, uncomfortably well\u2026<\/p>\n

These 150,000 do not include Wagner or the LPR\/DPR units.<\/p>\n

Wagner\u2019s competent core was, according to many, under 10,000 left a while ago and the rebels might be around 40,000, hard to know but the rebels have been driven very hard.<\/p>\n

In March, the Russians lost almost 25,000 dead, I count 2:1 and since it rained a lot, non-combat related injuries are probably still high.<\/p>\n

From the start January 6, 2023 to the end of March 2023, the Russians (according to me!) have lost +150,000 rendered unfit for combat.<\/p>\n

In January it was largely (relative) elite units, in February a mixed bunch, and in March (relative) elite units again because they ran \u201creal\u201d Wagner, VDV and Spetsnaz hard.<\/p>\n

-We roughly know how many they had at the offensive start January 6 \u2013 350,000.
\n-We know that included all personnel involved in the war.
\n-We know they mobilize 20,000\/month continuously.
\n-We can guess they have some left in training camps \u2013 10,000 in Belarus for example. We can also guess the total of these remaining is +50,000 maybe.<\/p>\n

Today, April 7, the Russian team is not strong at all if we do some preschool math with the above numbers.<\/p>\n

Moreover, it is the Russian team that has attacked continuously for three months and that wears you out.
\nA battalion that attacks and takes what, 70% losses, is not combat capable and needs months to get in shape even if the loss figure was only 7\/10.<\/p>\n

They have rotated brigades with a few weeks interval since January 6. When we say brigades here, we mean 2 battalions that are undermanned.<\/p>\n

We know from Bakhmut that it has been 10:1 at times and since UA:RU numbers have been a bit in UA\u2019s favor, the other 9 Ukrainians must have been standing around eating grilled sausages in the rear?<\/p>\n

The (relative) competent offensive reserve should reasonably be down to 50,000-60,000 today?
\nThat is the reserve they can use to try to plug Ukrainian breakthroughs.<\/p>\n

Ukraine on the other hand reportedly has 40,000 soldiers in 9 storm brigades just waiting.
\n-What can we read into that?
\n-Brigade size around 5,000.
\n-That is an offensive spearhead.<\/p>\n

We know the army has set up its own (new) brigades and that the total of new brigades is at least 14+3 and maybe up to 30 as Rybar stubbornly claims.<\/p>\n

We count conservatively \u2013 17 X 5,000 \u2013 85,000 soldiers in newly formed brigades.<\/p>\n

We also know they have only accepted CVs with a lot of combat and that they have been taken from the forest by battalions.
\nThey have thus reorganized a very large number of battalions into maneuver brigades and topped them with equipment. The brigades have a clear task to be offensive and they have only accepted volunteers.<\/p>\n

Now we come to some guesses \u2013 do you think the other Ukrainian maneuver brigades are anorexic and low on everything?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think so because they top them up first with reserves and at all front sections they have fought with composite battle groups consisting of battalion size from different brigades. Each brigade has had some battalion at the active front and they have rotated regularly.<\/p>\n

It feels like a pretty smart way to maintain combat value and when a battalion goes to rest, reserves are added that are immediately absorbed into a functioning unit with competent command structure.<\/p>\n

Today UA has 100 maneuver brigades if we count the army, NG and territorial. I consider territorial today competent infantry brigades and according to Gregg they have started to be supplied with heavy vehicles.<\/p>\n

I simply can\u2019t keep myself objective in the way the thread perceives as objective. The wall literally swarms with signs that this will end with an absolute bang. Some influence may have been had by the damn sangria but it is impossible to paint it in any other colors than yellow and light blue.<\/p>\n

I am fully aware that it is perceived as a bit odd to be so positive but unfortunately it is impossible to see it any other way.<\/p>\n

If China had seen a single opportunity to press the West, they would have taken it and they are doing everything right now to not be perceived as Russia-friendly. And just when attempts to interpret it more positively for Russia gain ground \u2013 then the Russians start doing their best to distance themselves from the Chinese instead.<\/p>\n

The Russian army in Ukraine makes a Potemkin facade look bad.<\/p>\n

I am quite sure that Ukraine has prepared a competent, well-equipped offensive reserve that is numerous. This offensive reserve has been training since last autumn. Battle-hardened soldiers who have received 8 months of training from battle-experienced commanders and Western instructors \u2013 can you even prepare better?<\/p>\n

It is starting to simmer a bit in the Russian republics and -stans. It\u2019s not just Ingushetia and Chechnya but also Azerbaijan has started saber-rattling against Armenia again and in Georgia it is really lively.<\/p>\n

In Belarus they are just waiting for the right moment and we probably have 3-4 \u201cliberation fronts\u201d in Russia that are running around with bombings of railway tracks, critical manufacturing and now apparently murder of bloggers.<\/p>\n

This is going to end more violently than my best-case scenarios, they will probably set fire to Putin while he dangles by his feet from the gas station, making it like a dangling May bonfire pinata, and the Mexicans will get some new ideas for future birthday parties.<\/p>\n

There is an unknown factor left that could negatively affect UA \u2013 will the Russians deploy the half a million from all agencies, Rosgvardia, and other PMCs in Ukraine?<\/p>\n

My opinion is that they cannot do that because then the country Russia would be undefended and Ukraine, and others, would not miss that chance.<\/p>\n

The Greeks have decided to do a German very late in the war, exactly how they intend to do this is unclear but that they will be mocked for their licorice liquor for many years to come is clear.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/clashreport\/status\/1643865634286043138?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

David D has exposed the lie, anyone who can think a little for themselves understands that he has a relevant point \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1643754363805110278?s=20<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1643614080786210818?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

How many Swedish senior officers do you think can fight in divisions or corps?
\n-None is my guess.<\/p>\n

How many Swedish lieutenant colonels do you think have brigades under them with proven combat experience \u2013 probably zero?<\/p>\n

It is easy to be arrogant towards Ukraine but the capability their fighting units have today is unmatched by any army unit in the EU.<\/p>\n

Whatever Ukraine does that works is totally fine \u2013 just because we haven\u2019t learned it in our training doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s bad.<\/p>\n

Zelensky is like a rockstar signing autographs.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/antiputler_news\/status\/1644022042214146055?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

And now we have proof that the old PV guns were not for May 9 but for the Ukraine war \u2013 it\u2019s not going well at all for the Slimegnome as we see now on moving images.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/antiputler_news\/status\/1644017227077746689?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Happy Easter<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Have you seen this?<\/p>\n

Better stock up on some beer and chips for July 11 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1644231900100173824?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

This link should be included too\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1643614080786210818?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23 Happy Easter.<\/p>\n

I remember that discussion when we hoped Putin would be taken out and Swan Lake in black and white would be played \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Something I take from this is that by believing in something you hold on even if it takes a long time. The setbacks become small bumps in the curve instead of a cliff you fall off.<\/p>\n

The country Ukraine has handled this very well in my opinion and if anything, you are genuinely worried there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I have set summer as the end of the active phase in Ukraine, summer is long \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Hard to believe Russia will surrender or sign any peace agreement unless some faction takes over from Putin but it could be the conservative Soviet enthusiasts who do it instead\u2026<\/p>\n

Crimea will fall infinitely fast because no Russian wants to be trapped in Crimea without a bridge, most probably understand that.<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass is a bit uncertain but my money is on the armed branches of LPR and DPR laying down their arms.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will take northern Luhansk by force and above all the Russians will need to defend the cities Donetsk and Luhansk so they will retreat from northern Luhansk at some point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has anyone in the thread heard anything more about the Russian mobilization?<\/p>\n

It was supposed to start now on April 1 and begin by recruiting 400,000 volunteers.<\/p>\n

Does anyone in the thread believe the Russians would miss the chance to post drone videos of miles-long queues winding to recruitment offices, they are in desperate need of positive PR here?<\/p>\n

They would probably even create these queues with paid actors.<\/p>\n

So why is it so quiet about mobilization right now?<\/p>\n

Last fall we were flooded with videos of the mobilization immediately but I haven\u2019t seen anything at all fly by in the feed?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It has been suggested that the lack of applause after Putin\u2019s speech might be fake.<\/p>\n

It is completely genuine and is on the official Russian site.
\nhttp:\/\/www.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/70868<\/a><\/p>\n

As someone wrote, 17 newly appointed ambassadors who don\u2019t applaud but I\u2019m pretty sure there are Russians in the room too.<\/p>\n

It is cut a bit earlier but it\u2019s the same nervous smile on Putin as in the video that has circulated and at least I don\u2019t hear any applause.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Below is a filmed mechanical failure.<\/p>\n

Alternating advance and that demands its man.<\/p>\n

What is the thread\u2019s thought about them unloading so far out?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1644290525950820352?s=46&t=vDGS6bMouSddfp7ds3rhYg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If you see this one, it\u2019s probably serious because they keep distances between vehicles.<\/p>\n

Quite close to the front thus.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1644278258509160448?s=46&t=vDGS6bMouSddfp7ds3rhYg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Oh, forgot that the Russians save IP and empty bank accounts if you look at that \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I completely missed this but have you seen that the ruble is in free fall now?<\/p>\n

Looking at xe the trend has been downward for almost a year and it\u2019s accelerating fast.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1644276149604720640?s=46&t=vDGS6bMouSddfp7ds3rhYg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Happy Easter!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Today, when wishing Happy Easter, one also hopes that the Russians look extra deep into the 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