{"id":7803,"date":"2023-04-23T07:27:04","date_gmt":"2023-04-23T05:27:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:50:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:50:06","slug":"2023-04-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-04-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

China has once again stated that they do not support Russia with weapons. Surely the Russians receive covert support, but they could have openly supported the Russians and started training programs and so on as the West has done \u2013 they have not.<\/p>\n

The only way for the Russians to come out of this mess alive is if China either manages to negotiate a ceasefire or starts delivering offensive weapons and training in large quantities \u2013 we have seen none of that.<\/p>\n

I always get harsh criticism for my “China has thrown Russia under the bus” statements, so I have to hide in the economic councils for a few days until I recover \u2013 so I won\u2019t write that even though I still believe it.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1649112799400820738?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Now that the baguette eater continues to embarrass himself, the Germans shine even more, no double game there \u2013 “completely okay that Ukraine strikes targets in Russia, we see no problem with that.” I am really surprised by the Germans’ turnaround here at the beginning of the year but it seems genuine and they have chosen a side \u2013 all honor to the Germans and fun to be named Van nowadays.<\/p>\n

How much floor scrubbing and LHR they needed in the meeting rooms we will never know, but someone\u2019s feathers were probably ruffled with a lot of excessive force.<\/p>\n

Go Deutschland!
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1649311732181942274?s=46&t=iT-zaP1jVMCuu80OlTZV3g<\/a><\/p>\n

Gregg wrote a few days ago what we usually guess \u2013 we will feel the tremors in the ground when the spring offensive begins.<\/p>\n

However, I am starting to sense increased intensity in my coffee grounds and there are Twitter rumors about movements in areas where there was no previous activity \u2013 when do reconnaissance fights and positioning turn into an offensive? I\u2019m parking April 19-21 for now and then we\u2019ll see if the intensity suddenly shoots off like a spear or if it increases gradually.<\/p>\n

I have bet two crates of beer \u2013 my choice \u2013 with a colleague that UA will win this summer, it will be a tough import for him when I want Mariestad (the premium segment for the electricity underclass…).<\/p>\n

What do you think about the persistent rumor that UA has established a bridgehead at the Antonovsky Bridge now that ISW is putting its reputation on the line?<\/p>\n

We have all seen the videos where they practice crossing the Dnipro, so Antonovsky doesn\u2019t feel like the only crossing point. RU reportedly has 15,000 troops in that area, so any bridgehead is high risk.<\/p>\n

How RU has not sent 15,000 troops to try to crush that bridgehead in its infancy is an absolute mystery to me and a positive one.<\/p>\n

If they cross at a few more places, it will probably quickly become untenable for the circus director.<\/p>\n

Marine infantry landings if they are outside the Dnipro along the coast are high risk since the navy is more or less intact, but you can always let them cross the Dnipro if the risk-reward is to UA\u2019s disadvantage, and there are a hell of a lot of brigades on the western side of the Dnipro right now.<\/p>\n

There are 3 marine infantry brigades, three mechanized, one armored, a couple of territorial and some more in the area, and if they get them across the Dnipro it\u2019s unstoppable, then the southern front falls.<\/p>\n

The defense is not prepared for crossing the Dnipro in the way it should be, almost all defensive lines run west-east against attacks from the north.
\nThere is some defense against the Dnipro\/east but it can be bypassed and then you are behind the entire southern front.<\/p>\n

This fits well with Gregg\u2019s rumor that RU will keep what UA does not capture in this offensive but with another twist \u2013 psyops against their own troops.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TreasChest\/status\/1649461081100763136?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

The ground seems to hold outside Bakhmut?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1649357901423575040?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ben Hodges guesses the battle plan
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1649365098920652800?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

The West is now trying to big up Germany as much as possible and they really deserve it, Bratwurst for the world.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1649442910213926912?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

Already in 2014, UA captured regular Russian army units if anyone thought the war started on February 24, 2023.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1649360764371648512?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

USA begins training on Abrams \u2013 good signal politics
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1649367724642934785?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1649349793217388544?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w<\/a><\/p>\n

It may very well happen that UA leaves the built-up areas in Bakhmut but that is not even a Pyrrhic victory, it is no victory at all.<\/p>\n

RU has sent their last offensive reserves there and weakened everywhere else to achieve nothing.
\nLike a kamikaze pilot who never leaves the runway before pulling the bomb cord and dying.<\/p>\n

It has been a terrible year but UA has risen and the lions have fought for over a year without faltering.<\/p>\n

We are quite close to a Russian crushing defeat now \u2013 that\u2019s what my coffee grounds say (ok it\u2019s Budanov who emails that damn all the time so it almost gets annoying with his thumbs up and laughing emojis but coffee grounds sound more mystical).<\/p>\n

The lions have defended Bakhmut, Avdiivka, northern Luhansk and other key positions while increasing their offensive reserves by several divisions.<\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk there was a thin picket line against the Russian hordes and there was never a breakthrough \u2013 this war\u2019s great mystery.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian infantry is indisputably the world\u2019s best, we grew up with stories of the Finnish soldiers who fell in their snow suits behind piles of spent cartridges at Taipale and Suomussalmi. The Ukrainian lions have mobilized from their villages and suburbs to front sections whose intensity the world has not seen since World War II and they have been prepared to make the greatest sacrifice for their country and their people \u2013 sons have fallen in the tens of thousands defending their country.<\/p>\n

They were just like us teachers, carpenters, high school students, concrete workers or engineers \u2013 pretty lazy and joyful about life and then overnight they are in places where survival is decided by chance.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s really impossible to paint this fairly, the Ukrainian people rose as one and took the full hit \u2013 they have done it without faltering every day for over a year.<\/p>\n

Western SOF who sought out Ukraine as volunteers often went home because they realized it was Russian roulette every day and that survival was a chance that could not be influenced. The Ukrainian infantry did not have that option \u2013 they had to keep playing.<\/p>\n

Going from the will to live to being ready to die is a very big and difficult step. Imagine when your battalion has been in combat, gone into rest and then must return to Bakhmut or Avdiivka again \u2013 you have accepted your fate, WhatsApped your family and said goodbye to the children without them really understanding because it was impossible to explain that you have to go back again, month after month.<\/p>\n

Lions \u270a
\n(this was written in a cloud of whiskey, worse beer and apparently Broder Daniel \u2013 sh1tland to work in, long live Ukraine).<\/p>\n

Death to the Slime Gnome \u270a<\/p>\n

#Springiscoming<\/p>\n

#Putindinglandesienbensinmack<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:12 \u2013 Johan No.1 China has once again stated that they do not support Russia with weapons. 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