{"id":7813,"date":"2023-04-28T06:54:51","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T04:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:51:23","slug":"2023-04-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-04-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:52<\/h2>\n

Bakhmut is a delaying battle and it may possibly be coming to an end \u2013 everything is in order.<\/p>\n

Even the Baguette-squad says so and then it\u2019s true.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tfbaguette\/status\/1651569316666519555?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

There are enormous artillery losses, sometimes a battalion per day. We must not forget that Russian artillery is only counted if it fires effectively and hits UA targets. Having 1000 barrels at some staging area somewhere does not count right now.<\/p>\n

They have had problems with the barrels, we know that, and we guess it is a shortage of key personnel.<\/p>\n

We know that when the UA campaign with HIMARS was at its worst, RU artillery fire decreased by 70% for a while due to ammunition shortages.<\/p>\n

They absolutely recovered but then they have had their own offensive since January 6 which has just ended, and that uses astronomical amounts of ammunition AND exhausts barrels.<\/p>\n

Add to that skyrocketing artillery losses on the order of up to a battalion per day and it\u2019s a low-odds bet to believe that the artillery has existential problems.<\/p>\n

I think we are now seeing the effects of decreased vs. increased capability.<\/p>\n

RU has such inexperienced crews that they stand too long in the same place. They also have too long a lead time on information so they can only shoot at fixed targets.<\/p>\n

UA has artillery radar, systems that can deliver death on target within minutes, and superior intelligence gathering in general.<\/p>\n

RU simply cannot reach UA artillery. UA takes out up to one artillery battalion per day.<\/p>\n

We have had reports of close combat along the Dnipro and reconnaissance fights are increasing in intensity every week.<\/p>\n

We also now have more explosions in the rear and drone activity but that has come in waves for a month or longer.<\/p>\n

-everything is preparations for an offensive.<\/p>\n

The weather is a bit gloomy, one must admit, and with minimal interest in history, one has probably been told what happens if you have bad timing with the weather \u2013 ask Armfeldt.<\/p>\n

However, the mud conqueror Argus has thrown his socks into the ring and declared that the ground now carries in the most scientific way possible \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Everything has been discussed dozens of times already \u2013 attack vectors, numbers, capability, ambition, and so on.
\nSure, there is a lot of psyops from the West and Ukraine but I absolutely do not get the impression that Ukraine is trying to bluff here \u2013 if RU retreats to the 1991 borders the war is over but otherwise they get kicked out.<\/p>\n

We have also had UA night combat capability up for discussion many times and those who know their stuff were of the opinion that breakthroughs cannot be carried out at night but all advances after that go well.<\/p>\n

Saw that it was up in yesterday\u2019s thread and it bears repeating \u2013 UA surely has more than 700 tanks with good night vision devices and many more IFVs.<\/p>\n

They have image intensifiers by the thousands so the spearhead can in theory attack at night (but then it becomes day after that\u2026)<\/p>\n

RU absolutely no longer has that capability and my guess is that flares are in short supply on the Russian side.<\/p>\n

Their visibility is crap and since they are low on armor, it\u2019s AT guns and AT missiles that apply.<\/p>\n

Then it\u2019s damn hard to hit anything under flares because the shadows move, AT guns become very difficult to use at night.<\/p>\n

Russian AT missiles probably have IR or thermal sights but they have to be mounted when drones with winged grenades hover above and wait for their targets.<\/p>\n

I absolutely get the feeling that they have dusted off Desert Storm and are reusing where they can and otherwise improving.
\nThey do not get air superiority and the pre-bombardment we saw against air bases is not the same indicator today.
\nHowever, pre-bombardment of artillery and rear areas \u2013 which is ongoing \u2013 and then close pre-bombardment which has started at least along the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

Which day they get forward we do not know but they have an enormous offensive reserve with the latest from the top shelves in Europe\u2019s storerooms.<\/p>\n

They also have combat experience and have a capability that probably exceeds any other country in the EU today.<\/p>\n

When the USA jumped on Iraq, for example, they did not have this combat experience that Ukraine has today and when we saw the guy with the best multitasking capacity in all of Europe defend a position for 9 minutes that gave an adrenaline rush just by watching, we probably understand that they have motivation, capability, and world-class capacity.<\/p>\n

On the subject of lack of AT weapons, I present Iranian AT missiles with the Russians, a Kornet copy. Iran should be pulled by the ear after this and above all we can only note that sanctions work pretty poorly because they can export missiles, drones, AT missiles, and large amounts of ammunition to Russia which they have probably manufactured in the middle of ongoing sanctions.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1651830619092008960?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding UA weapons, volunteers have crowdfunded 101 APCs (unarmed I guess).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/serhiyprytula\/status\/1651637686652870686?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

In the videos from Bakhmut and other hotspots, the soldiers look dangerously exhausted. I\u2019m no psychologist but I guess these are permanent injuries caused by staying too long in such environments and that even if you survive you get very severe but almost incurable damage.<\/p>\n

Now UA might have rotated the units more and they probably could have managed that but it\u2019s probably different branches, preparation for offensive reserves, and hard fighting so certainly some units have been on active front lines far too long without rest.<\/p>\n

There will come a time when the war is over where the country Ukraine must get all support for a very long time to get back to a normal state. Veterans with severe mental problems, all women and children who have been violated, all with deaths in the family where teenagers have had severe trauma and lost parents \u2013 no easy task to process that and get them to normally functioning citizens who go to their jobs.<\/p>\n

Ukraine can either become an engine in Europe and a country with hope for the future or Europe\u2019s most dangerous mafia that takes over and it is entirely up to how the EU acts going forward.<\/p>\n

If I were Ukrainian I would want to be treated with the utmost respect and showered with good deeds otherwise I would take it myself with the new capability I have acquired.<\/p>\n

The country Russia we can probably forget \u2013 I see them as incurable even if one hopes they will open the door and choose the right path.<\/p>\n

Times of Waiting.<\/p>\n

#bringonthepinhata<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:00<\/h3>\n

I pulled myself together and opened a highly anonymous Twitter. Didn\u2019t want to follow anything but discovered you could make lists, which I did, but they never show up in the feed anyway.
\nEverything Elon Musk writes does though, even though I try to get rid of him \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

How you manage to post the most relevant information for a whole year without a Twitter account is almost a bigger mystery than the Big Bang, damn what a job \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14<\/h3>\n

If UA does not achieve a decisive result with the spring offensive, it is a critical situation.<\/p>\n

Now it is my conviction that they will achieve a decisive result and we are not there yet \u2013 but it is a worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n

If Russia projects any form of strength, and frozen fronts or ceasefires are strangely enough that, then all countries standing on the fence are at risk of throwing down their white glove in front of the West.<\/p>\n

It will end with a Western resounding victory anyway but it will become an infinitely larger conflict that drags in so many countries that historians will call it the Third World War.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36<\/h3>\n

It probably doesn\u2019t get any clearer than that about what kind of peace UA can consider?<\/p>\n

Interesting angle Erik14, that means the offensive is over before they arrive at the battlefield, right?
\nhttps:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-seeks-to-stem-discord-with-allies-over-ukraine-document-leaks-\/7060210.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Seems like they are delivered in May and then a 10-week course on top of that and then 2-3 weeks until they are with the unit maybe?
\nSo they could be with the unit during the month of August and then this offensive is over?
\nhttps:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-seeks-to-stem-discord-with-allies-over-ukraine-document-leaks-\/7060210.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36<\/h4>\n

Twice VOA news for the article was so good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:07<\/h2>\n

Discussion among soldiers, monsters \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1651861580110352384?s=46&t=fSe4vxvi5XUXDaWfIktoLg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:50<\/h2>\n

Darth Putin has the answer about the Crimea explosion<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1652192794742587392?s=46&t=TKdwEgtl56eXZV-hkLYoNw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:33<\/h2>\n

The killer snails have threatened to retreat from Bakhmut \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1652327901583360001?s=46&t=nagicaOajk3hbJFrFXmOLQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:52 Bakhmut is a delaying battle and it may possibly be coming to an end \u2013 everything is in order. 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