{"id":7817,"date":"2023-04-30T09:24:32","date_gmt":"2023-04-30T07:24:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:52:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:52:09","slug":"2023-04-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-04-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I feel that front-line pre-combat has started in more places than just over the Dnieper, up near Bakhmut and Avdiivka for example. It is the final step before the ground offensive rolls out.<\/p>\n

Many now make the mistake of thinking that Russia is not doomed. The truth (for me) is that Russia lost a long time ago but refuses to accept the completed fact.<\/p>\n

When the April offensive played out, they had already lost and the war has only continued because RU sacrificed lives for time in the most ruthless way.<\/p>\n

UA needs to have an intact army to defend its enormous land border when they have retaken the 1991 borders.
\nHad they exhausted themselves, RU could have come back with round two and succeeded better.
\nIt has taken UA until now to get organized in the way they have.<\/p>\n

RU has been able to give the illusion of being in control because Ukraine was still preparing, but out of 10 Ukrainians, 1 defended and 9 have prepared for the offensive. While all 10 Russians attacked. UA has been in control since last autumn but now we are at the turning point where the initiative also shifts to UA everywhere.<\/p>\n

Operation storm, which I keep mentioning (not to be confused with the desert war), is a bit of an exaggeration but this is an extremely well-planned offensive.<\/p>\n

Erik14 with his excellent observations pointed out that Zelensky looks like a great weight has been lifted. Those who don’t know wonder why but we understand that it is because the ball is now rolling.<\/p>\n

Something that has been tried to be covered up is things that have not happened that were expected to happen.
\n-I thought they would beta test Western armor in northern Luhansk because the ground carried further in that sandy soil \u2013 did not happen.
\n-The trolling from Belarus also did not happen.
\n-Winter War 2.0 \u2013 frostbite did run rampant, northern Luhansk never got out of the starting blocks and we had a film of what could have been frozen to death soldiers but it did not quite live up to expectations.<\/p>\n

A little look back at the big battle plan we discussed a month or so ago since Pasiikiivi wrote about local advantages one after another, it feels relevant again \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The idea \u2013 move around the brigades because UA has short transport routes and RU enormous transport routes.<\/p>\n

The short version \u2013 <\/p>\n

The central point is not where they start the offensive so I start in the south and work my way north. I recall that the battle plan either began with the extent of Bakhmut or the crossing of the Dnieper. They should also project a threat far up north fairly early without it becoming a major offensive.<\/p>\n

UA crosses the Dnieper, lands between Kinburn Spit \u2013 Crimean bridges and advances along one or more of the attack vectors on the southern front. One will cost Erik14 five hundred.<\/p>\n

Up to about 30 brigades in total may be involved between the Dnieper and Vuhledar, depending a bit on where the reserves are sent.<\/p>\n

When Kuwait Highway 2.0 has played out when 20,000 Russians tried to flee down to Crimea and UA then stands at the Crimean bridges, they may have a couple of brigades left and then send the rest northeast.<\/p>\n

This attack vector is an uppercut straight up into the darkest Donbass “behind” (east of) the city of Donetsk.
\nThey retake up to the land border and then go northeast.<\/p>\n

A reasonable assumption is that since the pressure is also heavy between Mariinka \u2013 Horlivka and we have the cities Donetsk and Horlivka which are high-value targets, RU has poor defense in this rear area.<\/p>\n

If UA wants, they can open a threat against Rostov-on-Don just to annoy a bit \u2013 that is, not try to attack the city but project a threat that RU cannot ignore. Now Taganrog is probably in between.<\/p>\n

UA makes a larger extent at Bakhmut and Soledar and beats the killer snails to the ground, infantry on foot against hundreds of ATGMs with heavier support will be like old-time wagon forts.<\/p>\n

They now free up +20 brigades that already exist in the area (there are reserves too).<\/p>\n

They open a threat against Horlivka (UA is already nearby but most units in the area are locked at Bakhmut). They probably won\u2019t take Horlivka unless it falls easily but project a threat to the city so RU has to reinforce.<\/p>\n

What they mainly do is that between Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut they go southeast towards the city of Alchevsk.
\nThe area is poorly defended and they have the Siversky Donets on the northern flank and the threat against Horlivka on the southern flank.<\/p>\n

RU must hold back units in Severodonetsk and Alchevsk and a threat has now opened against the city of Luhansk which must begin to be fortified properly.<\/p>\n

At the northern front, UA projects a threat against Belgorod (without trying to take Belgorod).<\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk, UA has about a dozen elite brigades between Kreminna \u2013 Kupiansk. That was always too few but RU has thinned out northern Luhansk considerably and I also believe that SOF have been constantly wreaking havoc on Russians in dugouts in that area \u2013 after the war this will come out.<\/p>\n

It went like this \u2013 as long as RU went on the offensive it could get messy but as soon as they became immobile they were just prey because SOF is very strong in that area including reconnaissance, patrols from elite brigades, volunteer SOF and GUR, and all have night fighting capabilities. It is also good stealth terrain almost everywhere.<\/p>\n

Since threats open against Rostov-on-Don, the city of Donetsk, the city of Luhansk, Horlivka, etc., RU will weaken even more in northern Luhansk quite immediately.<\/p>\n

At some point (maybe already) RU is too weak to resist and then it becomes a revolving door and northern Luhansk is retaken.<\/p>\n

Along the border with Russia that is liberated, territorial defense and some maneuver battalion brigade behind a couple of territorial brigades in defense, and begin building fortifications as they have done up at the northern front.<\/p>\n

Throughout this time UA has increased pressure between Mariinka \u2013 Horlivka and it is a projected threat against the city of Donetsk.<\/p>\n

Then anything can happen, Crimea will be emptied voluntarily, 1st Army corps can lay down arms, the Russian team can flee to Russia or there will be fighting in the town in the city of Luhansk and the city of Donetsk.<\/p>\n

Then everyone will understand why Johan No.1 considers them the world’s best infantry.<\/p>\n

Everything on the bubble list can happen, that Russia turns inward, Pinhatan hangs and dangles and so on.<\/p>\n

Then we have the actual breakthrough, the concern is great that UA will get stuck so I give a sobering description of how it will go in replay.<\/p>\n

A RU defense system for the breakthrough I guess is fortified by a battalion and then in the last line by a better unit at company level. Since the Russians are starting to be short on units, a battalion probably has a broader defense than they are comfortable with.<\/p>\n

UA will attack at weak points so at the breakthrough there are say 400 infantry, a weakened tank company and 10-20 IFVs, a last defense line with some better company and then a task force in the rear that is responsible for a larger area than just this, BTG size and if there are any left, VDV.<\/p>\n

UA knows everything \u2013 where the mines are, where the defense is, where they have the pile of near PV and especially where all the heavy vehicles are located.<\/p>\n

They have now taken out artillery and special equipment for weeks. Before that, all depots started blowing up again and it continues.<\/p>\n

Now front-line pre-attack has begun.<\/p>\n

To take out the heavy vehicles, they use guided 155mm shells or something as simple as drone-dropped wing grenades; they have shells with RSV charges now, for example. A drone group took out 6 tanks in one night shift, another 10 \u2013 UA has the capability.<\/p>\n

All heavy vehicles will be taken out.<\/p>\n

They chase around the infantry with drone-dropped grenades, and if they can get them into the reinforced fortifications, there will be a high-explosive 155mm shell in there so it collapses.<\/p>\n

If successful, they will likely take out the task force with a tungsten rain while they grill muskrats in the rear.<\/p>\n

If there is a gathering of Russians in the fortification system, they will probably get an air brigade on them \u2013 the Israelis delivered something very unpleasant fired with GRK.<\/p>\n

Drones are constantly observing and see everything.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Breakthrough<\/p>\n

Happens at early dawn (since those who could in the thread did not consider my idea of a nighttime breakthrough feasible).<\/p>\n

They probably go first with tanks and direct fire against the fortification systems is heavily suppressive both from coaxial machine guns, tank cannon, and autocannons in various calibers.<\/p>\n

Drone-dropped wing grenades are on standby and UA has a real-time situational picture of what it looks like in the fortification systems.<\/p>\n

Now the Russian defense must go out into their firing positions with near PV and PV missiles.<\/p>\n

PV missiles are a priority and will be taken out with guided air brigades, guided 155mm shells, or drone-dropped wing grenades.<\/p>\n

Near PV comes next and the same applies there \u2013 they will probably drop a wing grenade right in that pile as soon as they can.<\/p>\n

Mines, mine plows, mine rollers according to doctrine, and you also have to deal with mines that lie directly adjacent to the trenches or stay further out as we have seen before on film and then the infantry clears.<\/p>\n

There are up to four lines to break through before the breakthrough is complete, but I am quite sure that in some places there is only one line. If possible, UA will surely lay bridges over waterways to completely bypass lines and they will attack weak points if reasonably possible?<\/p>\n

After that, they must get through and go on defense to catch the counterattack from the task force, which is the biggest threat. But the task force has largely gone and died in the winter offensive, which is excellent. I had them at 150,000 before January 6 and now maybe just over 50,000 have to cover this entire enormous front, so there won\u2019t be many in one place.<\/p>\n

They will try to take out the task force as early as possible, preferably in grouping, then during the advance, and they have minelayers for distance mining that they will try to lay between their grouping place and the breakthrough \u2013 there is a good chance they will never be able to solve their combat mission.<\/p>\n

Done!<\/p>\n

Now they spread out like a fan and each brigade has a corridor with its attack targets D, C, B, A and fights in battalion strength reasonably?<\/p>\n

And to the right and left other brigades attack.<\/p>\n

Flank protection is handled by infantry brigades, territorial forces, and some NG.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that they have a second line that takes over as soon as the first line runs out of gas.<\/p>\n

It will be absolute chaos now \u2013 command on the move and very messy.<\/p>\n

But a lightning-fast advance is the right method and that within days they have gone deeply in.<\/p>\n

I guess the spearhead will avoid heavily fortified cities and that they will be surrounded by infantry or the lighter brigades.<\/p>\n

At all front sections, there are enormous distances to cover so the spearhead needs to hold together to not run out too early.<\/p>\n

The spearhead has full capability for night fighting and they reasonably try to exploit that advantage as much as possible. Night fighting is damn hard especially if there are dozens of other brigades in the area but UA has reached wizard level in most things so far so why not also night fighting?<\/p>\n

A defense has the disadvantage that the opponent has the entire initiative. A defense never aims to completely prevent, it slows the opponent until reserves have arrived. The problem is that the Russians have no reserves.<\/p>\n

The Russians are proven terrible at countering rapid maneuvers and mobile combat, UA knows exactly how the Russians think and the Russians have not seen this fight yet. UA will step right into the decision cycle and spin the Russians up in the stands quite quickly.<\/p>\n

Then UA has confirmed that there are many (several) dozen pilots trained on F-16. We have guessed this before because there was a teaser sometime that training was ongoing last spring or summer, right?
\nAnd then the UK is going to buy long-range weapons for UA through the fund, up to 490 km.
\nGLDBS is already confirmed for delivery but this seemed to be a bit heavier ammunition?<\/p>\n

There is another dimension to why UA\u2019s offensive must be very violent \u2013 the atomic bomb effect from WW2.
\nIf UA shreds the Russian defense, it sends a very strong signal to China to keep lying low.<\/p>\n

Yep, the first thing you do is scan Twitter for something about the spring offensive \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Clarification: they do not squeeze a battalion into a few hundred meters but a battalion has the defense of that stretch or area where the breakthrough occurs at two points. It is spread out in width and then in depth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I mixed up km and kg in the long-range weapons from the UK just now, lucky we have a blogger who keeps things in order \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100<\/p>\n

I hope ERIK14 is right because then the offensive starts today!<\/p>\n

#TheTensionIsUnbearableICantWaitAnyLonger \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

hahaha, that hashtag will trend among the sobril poppers \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

All of us who put our miserable reputation on the line about an offensive in April jump on that immediately since there are a few hours left \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

A kilometer is quite a lot around Bakhmut, could it have been north of the city where they scared the Russians with artillery first?<\/p>\n

We were writing how an envelopment would go north and south of Bakhmut and then pinch the town in the middle to trap the murder snails. They don\u2019t have many vehicles and PTGB is faster than running.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:09 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Don\u2019t mind being wrong.
\nImagine if this was the start and by the ninth they have already retaken Bakhmut and pushed deep into the darkest Donbass!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:34 \u2013 Johan No.1 I feel that front-line pre-combat has started in more places than just over the Dnieper, up 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