{"id":7853,"date":"2023-05-03T08:29:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T06:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-03-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:59:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:59:14","slug":"2023-05-03-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-03-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Have been cruising around on a small boat with A\/C luckily in the world’s best Africa this week for a bathymetric survey, hence a bit irregular posting since coverage comes and goes a bit depending on where you are in the shark-infested waters.<\/p>\n

My strongest reason to believe that Ukraine’s offensive is increasing\/ imminent is that as soon as the roads start to hold and the temperature improves, the Russians’ supply chains work again and the soldiers are probably like little gray lizards warming themselves in the sunlight roughly.<\/p>\n

Now RU has just come out of its own offensive and exhausted everything but if you give them say 2-3 more months, even they can manage to work their way to a defense worth the name.<\/p>\n

There is every reason to strike at the low point and that is probably where we are now. It is the second low point since September 2022 and UA missed it because the West delayed deliveries.<\/p>\n

With a bit of luck, the West this time has something up its sleeve while the offensive kicks off to amplify the message. It’s a bit too speculative so I won’t go into anything but everything that hurts Russia is good right now and that includes diplomacy, trade, politics, and all the other soft stuff.<\/p>\n

That China, India, and Brazil have now withdrawn their protective hand from Russia at the UN is naturally really big even if my friend always gets harsh criticism for being “thrown under the bus”.<\/p>\n

Putin was a relatively big man who considered himself if not to lead BRIICS at least to be one of the key players \u2013 he got a Zoom link from South Africa to the next BRIICS meeting \ud83d\ude00 <\/p>\n

How fun do you think he finds it to be the only one on Zoom when the others are having fun after-work in Cape Town?<\/p>\n

Xi probably has him on the phone but happens to put it down with the camera facing the bar counter and no one hears him in the music and chatter so after fifteen minutes he shuts it down and goes back to the bedroom with a spoonful of caviar in his mouth, head hanging low.<\/p>\n

That also signals that “the other side” is starting to get nervous, South Africa folds, China votes red, Brazil and India choose the middle way. Putin is very lonely now and the West’s silent diplomacy has definitely worked.<\/p>\n

Russia has always seen itself as a great power, now they are pariahs and it\u2019s all because of a badly executed war.
\nA geopolitical atomic bomb.<\/p>\n

The powerful have gone from penthouse in Londongrad and moving hundreds of millions through the Western banking system to seized assets and possibly visas to China if the wife wants to shop. It must be deathly silent and lots of glaring under the bangs at dinner tables \u2013 now among the Russian elite.<\/p>\n

There is one thing that would make Russia survive this \u2013 they manage to freeze the fronts on their own accord and then work like ferrets to refurbish old equipment and train new recruits until they have a defense that is too high a threshold for Ukraine. For this they need time and it is unlikely that Ukraine would give them that time now when we are in the middle of the Russian (self-inflicted) low point.<\/p>\n

What we can establish is the following \u2013
\n-units have received marching orders.
\n-combat against rear areas is ongoing.
\n-spectacular attacks at long distances are increasing.
\n-frontline pre-combat at the Dnieper, southern front, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Kreminna.
\n-counterattacks at the southern front, some kind of crossing at the Dnieper, counterattacks at Bakhmut, Avdiivka and something else.
\n-a persistent rumor that UA broke through defenses and went 1.5 km deep (what is the definition of a breakthrough?)<\/p>\n

All this costs lives and ammunition and would not have been done if an offensive was not imminent.<\/p>\n

The offensive has actually started, since April 10 we have seen increased intensity with peaks on April 19-20 and now at the turn of the month.<\/p>\n

The brigades consolidate, conduct combat reconnaissance, increase intensity and in some places they have completely broken through the defense.<\/p>\n

We have not yet seen the surprises, or some we have \u2013 the oil terminal on Crimea and over the Kerch Strait. There is naturally a whole list of fun tricks that Budanov is fiddling with to decide which to choose.
\n-Extinguish Russia?
\n-Sabotage May 9?
\n-Sink with the navy\u2019s floating craft?
\n-Let the volunteer Russian brigade drive a few miles into Russia?
\n-Put a Grom in the Kremlin?
\n-Put a Grom in Putin\u2019s palace dacha?<\/p>\n

There were rumors that Budanov had to back down from New Year’s fireworks on the anniversary but why would you refrain from all the fun now when you have the equipment and the offensive is starting up?<\/p>\n

Personally, I think the West still acts a bit like a brake even though much is now done. The understanding of what was about to happen before Ukraine crashed the party is too poor or they can\u2019t see that they belong to the same side.<\/p>\n

Let Ukraine win this war by doing what they need to do to win, that precision aircraft and long-range weapons have not already been delivered is as sad as when we understood last autumn that UA had received nothing so the autumn offensive was what they managed with what they had.<\/p>\n

GLDSB was confirmed for delivery months ago and it was also confirmed that it was in stock.<\/p>\n

Thousands of offensive drones have been delivered and UA has received components for 100,000 more \u2013 have we seen that cloud yet?<\/p>\n

I also want to clarify that my comment on some film of a dead Russian yesterday where I wrote “beautiful film” or similar, I had not seen the film. Sprinkled a couple of positive comments and apparently that one was not so nice. Giving myself a negative thumbs down so you don\u2019t have to \ud83d\udc4e<\/p>\n

As bad as one feels that this war will enter an active phase again, there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians now saying goodbye to their families not knowing if they will return. If there is no quick end, tens of thousands more will die. For the family at home, this will be incredibly stressful months where you worry yourself sick while trying to function.<\/p>\n

Every day you want this sh1t war to end \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

+100 back \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This officer has the same thoughts as us.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.expressen.se\/nyheter\/ukrainas-varoffensiv-narmar-sig-en-chans\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Thanks for an informative night shift Eril14, you capture the whole picture as usual \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Seems like it could be an interesting day but first I apparently have to sort out a walker-borne mutiny on the boat which came as a big surprise \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

DENGAMLE has really been on the ball since he came back, makes you wonder if he has greatly increased his consumption of morning shots! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Have been cruising around on a small boat with A\/C luckily in the world’s best Africa 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