{"id":7855,"date":"2023-05-04T09:57:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T07:57:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T08:59:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:59:32","slug":"2023-05-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

At some point I have to write this so I\u2019m writing it today \u2013 \u201cand so it has begun\u201d.
\n(famous last words).<\/p>\n

I had written something very dramatic here but it never read right so it got scrapped.<\/p>\n

A bit less dramatic than the sentence above \u2013 hundreds of thousands in brigades whose march to the grouping areas\/starting groupings is now complete and the window to start the offensive has likely opened.<\/p>\n

Defmon had a fantastic post where the chief elf shot orcs through with elf arrows \u2013 what an effect, absolutely incredible I just shivered.<\/p>\n

Rumors are circulating about larger movements and they have been quite persistent. Keep in mind that there is a lid on and a 3-day delay on everything but as said, Twitter rumors.<\/p>\n

Frontline pre-emptive strikes have gone up like a spear, now also near Vuhledar, and besides earlier counterattacks there are now additional UA offensive operations (size unknown) near Bakhmut and the southern front \u2013 all of course Twitter rumors but on a day like this I grab onto everything. <\/p>\n

I think the up-ticket in heavy vehicles is because they are knocking out heavy vehicles in defense now but that\u2019s a guess.<\/p>\n

There were also videos of rows of infantry standing by the Dnieper again but it could be the same ones we saw earlier just from another angle.<\/p>\n

If this is a nothing burger I pretend it\u2019s nothing as usual and declare an offensive later when ISW has also announced it. <\/p>\n

The dramatic event a couple of weeks ago when Dengamle was supposed to be first in the thread but overslept after the morning round around the living room has been nagging a bit so now I\u2019m making my bet \u2013 if everything returns to calm in the coming days and next week is the same intensity as last week then I\u2019m back on hunting mode for Dengamle \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Dinner with colleagues yesterday and the usual narrative that Russia may not win but can\u2019t possibly be defeated. After a whole day like a grilled lobster on the boat I took a surprisingly firm position for me at work and reasoned a bit about the UA offensive. The conversation quickly turned to forest fires during summers after looks of dismay at how I could understand so little about what\u2019s happening in the world despite my age. <\/p>\n

I think RU\u2019s indirect fire on Kherson is to disrupt the offensive, suspect the rockets were the same \u2013 RU is doing what they can.<\/p>\n

Have you figured out yet why Zelensky was in Finland?<\/p>\n

That Iceland was there gave it away \u2013 JED has met and if I may guess UA will join JEF going forward since Turkey and Hungary will never let them into NATO.<\/p>\n

I have previously reasoned that JEF will be a player going forward and stand by that. The right countries are involved and the main purpose will probably be the defense of our eastern border I think.<\/p>\n

A good complement to NATO but without all the brakes.<\/p>\n

There will probably also be joint weapons projects, joint exercises and a lot of cooperation from this.<\/p>\n

They have apparently HIMARSed Alchevsk which is presumably the target for the larger Bakhmut-Siversk offensive.<\/p>\n

Then some Twitter rumor about them preparing circular defense in Mariupol which is brilliant because then the mech can just go around the city and the infantry brigades get to set up a medieval siege and starve out the Russians in the built-up area.<\/p>\n

If you ask me I think it will be like at Izyum when the guards army was supposed to push back the advance, we saw reinforcements helicopter-land and then we got videos of the guards army fleeing on foot across the last bridge over the Oskil.<\/p>\n

This will be the worst traffic jam of this war down towards Crimea and it has every chance to become Kuwait Highway 2.0.<\/p>\n

When scanning the flow of pre-emptive strikes and where reconnaissance fights have taken place you get a distinct feeling that UA is preparing an offensive along all three attack vectors southward along the southern front.<\/p>\n

Have you seen this?
\nAt the risk of it being old or the wrong country but if you look at the uniforms, weapons and soldiers I get the impression that UA has mobilized just about everything for this offensive. The equivalent of home guard in M59, Mauser and tin can roughly.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1653727008461824003?s=46&t=Fw2TZzNM8olo6IEdFYBHzg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

How is the risk of forest fires? We haven\u2019t had any major problems yet but maybe it will come later?
\nNow that it has become significantly drier down in Europe we will probably see more of them there too. What do you others think? <\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude09 <\/p>\n

+100 Well written and I also think that #SpringIsHere and that we will now see it accelerate!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I just went through yesterday\u2019s thread and the discussion about the boat got a bit out of hand.<\/p>\n

Of course we should try to meet expectations but if every participant gets their own key to the liquor fridge it\u2019s doubtful I can finance it.<\/p>\n

Now we\u2019re also starting to position ourselves for the formal roles and probably just have to check that we haven\u2019t promised anything earlier now that there\u2019s been some rotation.<\/p>\n

Gammelsvenskby and Bakhmut will be sailed to so it will be a really fun trip.
\n(might be some whining when the liquor fridge is empty and everyone stands like Egyptian galley slaves pulling the boat on rolling logs to Bakhmut).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

DENGAMLE held tight to the key..
\nI\u2019ll just place a bigger order of Obolon and I\u2019ll also make sure to stock up for the trip so there\u2019s enough for everyone. Get back to me with a list of all crew members and their expected daily Obolon needs and I\u2019ll fix it!<\/p>\n

I have some sailing experience so I volunteer as a deckhand, by the way do we have sails or is it a motor cruiser?? \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Bakhmut might be a bit tough but we can handle it!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

MatsExtrude, what position did you have, I\u2019ve lost my organizational chart I made with the latest software?<\/p>\n

You\u2019ve had a spot for a long time I think \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Deckhand I see now, sounds good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I hope I wrote it right \u2013 yes exactly my thought, that the window for the offensive is now open and it will accelerate.
\nThere is an incredible amount of units that need to get going and anything can happen but you don\u2019t conduct frontline pre-emptive strikes if you don\u2019t intend to go on the offensive soon because it consumes ammo.<\/p>\n

I thought April 10 was early and 19\/20 didn\u2019t feel right either but now the intensity is high enough for me that it feels like the start of the offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

I have thought it would happen during the two weeks in mid-May, roughly from now to the weekend and two weeks forward. A bit early already now but it feels like it has started and we will see an escalation before it really kicks off.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Had not been assigned any position, I think it was just a pallet in one corner of the wheelhouse \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I\u2019m trying to understand Ukraine\u2019s statement about all the explosions in Russia which sounded like double talk but I have another idea.<\/p>\n

We know that there are 5-6 liberation fronts and if I were UA I would have close contacts with them and try to coordinate escalated liberation actions with the spring offensive.<\/p>\n

Ukraine might not be lying or using reverse language and maybe it is Russian “rebel groups” that are firing?<\/p>\n

The country Russia is impossible to defend and an active liberation front would very quickly force Russia to turn inward.<\/p>\n

Who knows.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Interesting thought. If everything that is exploding is caused by internal groups it could become quite interesting going forward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Different in different places, presumably?<\/p>\n

Also depends on the number of barrels.<\/p>\n

I have thought that an artillery battery of, for example, Archer can exhaust the important targets of a weakened mech battalion in defense in a few days.<\/p>\n

If you wait too long you give RU the opportunity to reinforce.<\/p>\n

But if they have no reinforcements to send and you have ammunition you can decimate them terribly with guided ammunition and hit right in every shot.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

They have intelligence gathering almost in real time where they concentrate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I think it is a genuinely interesting discussion.<\/p>\n

An example \u2013 I always have my front door wide open at night and my neighbors are known to murder, they have their knives in the garage.<\/p>\n

It is a big family.<\/p>\n

One night two of the sons come in and attack me in bed but I manage to trick them into killing each other in the dark.<\/p>\n

Should I now continue to have my front door wide open and let the knives lie there in their garage knowing that the other two sons want revenge?<\/p>\n

Or should I lock my front door and steal all the knives so they have nothing to kill me with?<\/p>\n

I think locking the front door and stealing the knives also falls under reasonable action to defend oneself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Yes, that will be perfect! Hear Johan No.1 roar, “Refute and embrace! Damn ghost, the corpse lives, shoot home!!”<\/p>\n

I think I should start practicing some of Captain Haddock’s better curses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 At some point I have to write this so I\u2019m writing it today \u2013 \u201cand so 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