{"id":7867,"date":"2023-05-09T07:37:21","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T05:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:01:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:01:41","slug":"2023-05-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If you remember last year, I watched the 2021 parade and wrote a long post about it, so I\u2019m making a bit more effort this time to avoid embarrassing myself two years in a row.<\/p>\n

We got a flash about a counterattack in Bakhmut again yesterday, and then the blogger could report that there had been some movement a few kilometers east near Kupiansk.<\/p>\n

We had earlier information from Kreminna, but that probably means there is activity along the entire northern Luhansk front now as well, and then all fronts are active with (reconnaissance) fighting?<\/p>\n

Has UA ever been active on all fronts simultaneously? They have previously conducted local attacks and then been on the defense on other fronts. That they can conduct (reconnaissance) fighting on all fronts is probably positive?<\/p>\n

You can be sure we will hear when newly equipped brigades are deployed; not even Elon\u2019s Ukraine filter will be able to stop that flood of joy when the Leopards and Bradleys are unleashed.<\/p>\n

So a guess is that it is existing brigades fighting now, and at least I think advances of up to 1.5 km are quite significant events even if they are not fully exploited in the way we learned in Saving Private Ryan.<\/p>\n

Imagine the existential anxiety the Russian defense must have right now, breaking down a little more every day, and the small-size fuel can is finished.<\/p>\n

A pretty sure sign of a dictator is what we see with Putin right now, I thought \u2013 straight into the wall.<\/p>\n

His army is stealing civilian clothes to be able to flee the southern front \u2013 doesn\u2019t feel like the Russian imperialist army directly when they run around in the forests in skirts and shorts trying to look like a family of civilians where both wife, husband, and child are equally tall and closely shaved.<\/p>\n

The question of whether they would start at some front first or launch a simultaneous start within a window, there are probably indications that we have an answer to?<\/p>\n

This must be enormously stressful for the Russians that everything is flashing red everywhere and then knowing that 20 mechanized brigades are waiting in staging areas so they can reach 5-6 UFAs for different attack vectors in half a day.
\nUA has the ability to strike at any front section, at least that is my assessment.<\/p>\n

If I were the Russian command, I would spend this waiting time googling asylum in a suitable country.<\/p>\n

Do you remember in Kherson, it didn\u2019t move a meter, they tried to cross at Davyidiv Brid and it was a very long time before it moved.<\/p>\n

That they take 1 km – 1-5 km during a morning bodes well and now it has happened a bit everywhere but if the defense is like Kherson in how it is built, it will probably take a long time unless one of the bubbles kicks in.<\/p>\n

It will be a long summer.<\/p>\n

Then I think these missile attacks were Russia\u2019s big bang ahead of May 9, there is no big plan, they just went all out with what they had.<\/p>\n

Rebuilt T62 with a BMP-2 turret. Feels fresh actually.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1655415699530043395?s=46&t=y7i_VY7boOE4aTMldZwXIA<\/a><\/p>\n

New RU numerics, maybe similar to the “scare propaganda” I posted the other day?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1655292968046063623?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

How I saw the parade \u2013 despite persistent rumors, there was no major difference compared to last year.<\/p>\n

The soldiers were probably this year\u2019s conscripts or from the 150k reserve they have held back?<\/p>\n

Now Putin probably has his copies, seems to be generally accepted, but that looked like last year (and 2021 which I spent a day on then\u2026). However, this Putin didn\u2019t move his right arm, so was it a copy or the Hypnopad himself in person, what do those who know their stuff say?<\/p>\n

Maybe it\u2019s the boat and the high waves that affect it, but some disappointment that nothing fun happened, but it was fun to speculate about it the week before \u2013 that\u2019s something you can live on for a long time.<\/p>\n

Then unfortunately I got the same feeling as last year \u2013 the sluggishness is enormous still.<\/p>\n

Also notable that UA has not increased the intensity beyond (reconnaissance) fighting so those who thought symbolism is for the weak were right again \u2013 as so often before.<\/p>\n

Overall, I see UA\u2019s actions on the ground as very positive but the sluggishness and boundlessness in the country Russia is like a cancer in the spleen you want to get rid of as soon as possible. I am absolutely affected by this war by how ruthless the Russian barbarian state behaves and have more than once thought about how fun it would be in one of their torture centers with guaranteed death after weeks of torture. That story lacks a happy ending every day of the week and no one is safe, children as young as one year have been tortured and the stories are absolutely incomprehensible. It seems that a sexual sadistic diagnosis is a requirement to do military service.<\/p>\n

The other cancer you want to get rid of is the ideological or paid pro-Russians or Russia apologists who historically have a good eye on the Soviet Union and then Russia, or those who simply do not get the right news. Over time it becomes increasingly difficult to have a clean discussion with them and I have solved it by not mentioning the war in groups where you are not sure what they think.
\nThe plan was fine but a dinner with the new job became a bit stiff after I couldn\u2019t hold myself, maybe not the best for the salary ladder.<\/p>\n

Yes, now I have to return to vivid descriptions of how Ukraine will run over the sunbathing lizard in the pit soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

On second thought, maybe it was the 2022 parade I saw again and thought it looked the same\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I will try to get a fair picture of Russian numerics and a fair picture of UA capability, those usually take some effort even if I pretend they take a quarter of an hour in the morning.<\/p>\n

Sure, it\u2019s fun to mock Russians in the pit but there is concern about how this will play out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Death to cancer!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

+1 It will be interesting to see where you end up!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I know the hunting rights are beckoning here and that we have already reached Tuesday, so very magnanimous of you Dengamle \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Since I mix high and low, it\u2019s confusing even for me sometimes but what I think is \u2013 the window to start offensive operations has opened and the intensity of (reconnaissance) fighting is high.<\/p>\n

We have not seen the heavy elephants (newly equipped brigades but heavy elephants sound manlier) yet because we would have heard about that.<\/p>\n

At several front sections, UA has advanced 1 km \u2013 1-5 km. You only do that by cutting through the defense and then it is quite reasonable to assume that some unit has fled?<\/p>\n

So this is not the huge Saving Private Ryan breakthrough I dream of, so Dengamles’ hunting rights are still ticking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

They say north of the main road to Ivanivske.
\nRan into Deepstate and Ivanivske is in UA hands and the film from N about T0504, so it wasn’t a big deal (unfortunately\u2026).
\nMaybe I interpreted everything completely wrong?<\/p>\n

Alternative interpretation is that they are on the main road (T0504) which runs east-west.
\nThere have been some flashes about heavy fighting there.
\nIt could mean that they have pushed the barbarians back east a bit into the forest belt.
\nThis since they are very exposed so there is at least no barbarian in the vicinity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Maybe it has to do with LW’s 13:52..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

So the other interpretation would be that UA has advanced.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, I thought it might be exactly as SVAMPBOB writes. That they have pushed forward, taken some losses but secured the area.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

A few days ago there was a one-liner about heavy fighting at road T0503.
\nI was rocking on the boat but interpreted it as being up at Khromove in my seasickness.<\/p>\n

Now I understand that it is down by Ivanivske.<\/p>\n

Everything really indicates that UA has hit that flank?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

That’s the feeling I get..<\/p>\n

Then we have this:<\/p>\n

\u201dRussians relocated forces in the Bakhmut area for attack; Ukrainians advanced near Khromove, and carried out a massive HIMARS raid, making Russians believe counteroffensive was to start May 9 at midnight.\u201d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/EuromaidanPress\/status\/1655943255186612226<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Was this up?
\nMech at T0504?
\nTime unclear but a lot about T0504 now.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1655921418054320129?s=46&t=SfVur7pUVoxU-v3fAMSN1w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here the Russians fled \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1656016512258383874?s=46&t=yWeX7E-D4DfVKUQnS1R8Bw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:01 \u2013 Johan No.1 If you remember last year, I watched the 2021 parade and wrote a long post about 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