{"id":7879,"date":"2023-05-14T10:01:45","date_gmt":"2023-05-14T08:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-14-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:04:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:04:57","slug":"2023-05-14-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-14-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:02<\/h2>\n

Exciting developments now around Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Noel mentions that it looks good in northern Klishchivka and the settlement Kudymivka, and Deepstatemap suggests they are already probing the latter community. At Klishchivska, they are probably in the forested area north-northwest of the settlement, maybe?<\/p>\n

The next defensive line probably runs from (the southern) Zaitseve or Maiorska up to Opytne along the watercourse, one might guess. Behind that, there likely isn\u2019t any more defense at present, reasonably?<\/p>\n

So where are the Russian counterattacks?<\/p>\n

There should be task forces behind conducting aggressive counterattacks, but right now UA is methodically advancing; when they take a position, they pound it with artillery and then move on to the next.<\/p>\n

This suggests to me that they had a thin picket line in the area south of the settlement in Bakhmut, that there were no reserves, and that there was no competent task force.<\/p>\n

Why did they need units from five different formations in a geographically small area \u2013 the only explanation I can see is that they were decimated, because it would be very illogical not to let one brigade handle the entire defense of a geographic area.<\/p>\n

If you think it was part of brigades, you are probably wrong because the brigade commander of the 4th brigade went and died along with some other brigade.<\/p>\n

UA attacks down there with 1 or 2 battalions.<\/p>\n

It may very well be that RU is now trying to prepare a NS defense between (the southern) Zaitseve and Opytne to slow down UA in that area.<\/p>\n

But then you pull units from somewhere else and become weak there, and UA has 19 brigades in the area that can fight there.<\/p>\n

Right now, this is becoming a whack-a-mole for the Russians that they simply cannot counter.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we went through that 4-5 brigades and a PMC retreated in disorder.<\/p>\n

It will naturally look the same at the next place UA pushes up, maybe up at Soledar or over in Bilohorivka.<\/p>\n

We also had earlier reports of movement near Maiorska just north of Horlivka but I can\u2019t find anything, and then there was something around Avdiivka but nothing on the maps.<\/p>\n

A point regarding NG and Territorial. Several Territorial units have fought in Bakhmut throughout the siege and I am of the opinion that Territorial today can be likened to capable infantry. All Territorial brigades should be seen as maneuver brigades among those at active fronts.<\/p>\n

The least experienced handle border protection against Belarus and north of Kharkiv, but those at the fronts and participating in combat probably have quite high capability now.<\/p>\n

With a bit of luck, RU is trying to scrape together units for a defense between Bakhmut and Horlivka that runs behind the watercourse. Then they have gathered those units from other front sections, probably from Soledar, northern Luhansk, and south of Horlivka.<\/p>\n

It will be a long summer unless the bubbles kick in like a big fireworks display, but instead of discussing the Russian offensive or waiting for an offensive, we are starting to see UA terrain gains on Deepstatemap and that things are moving \u2013 an incredible relief.<\/p>\n

Now it is probably crucial for UA to exploit the low point so that RU does not have time to send down all reserves and the repair guys they find and stabilize something.<\/p>\n

I feel that Gregg has reported somewhat strangely at times, thinking maybe he gets talking points as part of psyops?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20<\/h2>\n

It continues around Bakhmut and we have received reports that further counterattacks have been repelled.<\/p>\n

There are supposed to be two battalions attacking north of Bakhmut and probably two battalions south of Bakhmut \u2013 around a brigade but presumably from 2-3 different brigades.<\/p>\n

Likely supported by Territorial units acting as flank protection and fortifying captured positions so the spearhead is not depleted.<\/p>\n

Of course, I didn\u2019t manage to find the big offensive post over the weekend and there was another post about how they conduct breaches as we thought it would go \u2013 will come eventually.<\/p>\n

ISW totally slams Russian capability here and if they don\u2019t stabilize the situation at Bakhmut soon, there is probably substance behind this post.<\/p>\n

There have been some diagnosed positives in the thread who wrote this, so it\u2019s always nice when a heavyweight like ISW, which we have always respected throughout the war, writes it too \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1657697072236183552?s=46&t=48aoeqSd3g4-8CEU-X7SqA<\/a><\/p>\n

The technical post about breakthroughs was roughly like this \u2013
\nUA has logged all positions and strikes fixed targets in pre-battle suppression with guided munitions within a geographic area.<\/p>\n

Their drones hunt around the soldiers in the trench systems and if they retreat into the reinforced trench, they put a high-explosive 155mm shell in it and take them all out.<\/p>\n

When the attack comes and a Russian in a foxhole has to get up into a firing position, drone-dropped wing grenades are on standby and take out the ATGM and the ATGM operator first.<\/p>\n

They probably know where the ATGM weapons are and drop grenades on them.<\/p>\n

At the same time, observation drones see everything in real time.<\/p>\n

Then direct fire on the attack target and some air bursts and the defense becomes demotivated and pauses.<\/p>\n

Then they would counter the counterattack from the task force and then go for the next line.<\/p>\n

UA has done something much smarter in Bakhmut \u2013 they advance with less than company strength and as soon as they encounter defense, they withdraw and lay indirect fire over the area as above, which is very effective, and then storm the trench systems.<\/p>\n

If I didn\u2019t sleep through all the history lessons, that was exactly how the US fought in Normandy during WW2?<\/p>\n

Blogger Murz basically confirms how UA fights and then I think he confirms the question we have asked ourselves in posts over the last few days \u2013 are these weak brigades of a few hundred who jointly defend an area, seems like it?<\/p>\n

He also believes that UA has total dominance in indirect fire, which is understandable given Russian ammunition and artillery losses as well as Western deliveries.<\/p>\n

UA thus has 5 artillery BRIGADES around the Bakhmut front.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1657675029813796866?s=46&t=xgWdmSusPZ5cWjJxbbfY0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Prigozhin is trying to negotiate his way out by betraying the army, Wagner is starting to look for an exit, army brigades have left their positions, 4-5 of them. Brigade commanders are going and dying.<\/p>\n

Girkin says it\u2019s like 1917 where the Jews and Georgians destroyed Russia \u2013 the country is soon turning inward but unfortunately we can\u2019t predict outcomes from the bubble list.<\/p>\n

Likely RU is trying to set up a strong defense between Opytne and southern Zaitseve with VDV, I would have done that because there is a watercourse there.<\/p>\n

The question is where they have pulled the units from.<\/p>\n

This will grind on and when the Azov brigade needs a combat pause, they switch to the next brigade.<\/p>\n

So it is 1\/20 brigades in the area that have been committed to combat and they have achieved very large successes in a few days.<\/p>\n

There has also been movement south of Vuhledar and near Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

It is quiet at Soledar but my coffee grounds say something is underway.<\/p>\n

Right now RU is shaken and it will break somewhere else soon where they are grinding, Vuhledar, Soledar, Bilohorivka or Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

Then one must start weakening northern Luhansk and the southern front reasonably.<\/p>\n

The “big offensive,” which is probably defined by the Western-equipped brigades, will likely strike at the southern front.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:25<\/h3>\n

The accent man posted above suggests that UA is probing Klischivka.<\/p>\n

If Klischivka falls, the next defensive line is probably the one they are currently gathering forces for. It will not be well developed, as they are focusing on clustering in the communities, and then the Ukrainian artillery will decimate them very heavily within a few days.<\/p>\n

The attack vector south of Bakhmut will likely reach its combat objectives in a week or two.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:02 Exciting developments now around Bakhmut. Noel mentions that it looks good in northern Klishchivka and the settlement Kudymivka, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-05-14 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-14-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-05-14 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"13:02 Exciting developments now around Bakhmut. 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