{"id":7883,"date":"2023-05-17T10:08:26","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T08:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:05:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:05:20","slug":"2023-05-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Good that it highlights who is peddling Russian psyops.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/jkaarsbo\/status\/1658754909959856129?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

They finally let me off the boat, that thing about the drag anchor wasn\u2019t entirely made up but I traded freedom for signing and stamping all future work as approved in advance for the rest of the year. You could pretty quickly understand what “kielhalen” was.<\/p>\n

Many are worried right now \u2013 “will there even be an offensive,” “Bakhmut is falling,” “big Russian maskirovka,” and so on in self-amplifying loops.<\/p>\n

The actual delaying battle in the Bakhmut settlement is probably nearing its end and I actually see a point in RU taking this \u2013 they deny UA a foothold in the settlement and try to stabilize the flanks. If you look at the map, you immediately understand that it has zero value. But if Prigozin can declare victory with moving images and then retreat, the entire upcoming loss becomes the army\u2019s fault \u2013 domestic politics, basically.<\/p>\n

There are rumors that VDV has been deployed in the Bakhmut settlement, I think it was in yesterday\u2019s blog update?
\nThey are sacrificing their best here.<\/p>\n

Then, if I understand this correctly, VDV has now reinforced the area south of Bakhmut, unclear how it looks north of the settlement. Our guess a few days ago was that they would reinforce the line Opytne \u2013 (southern) Zaitseve behind the watercourse?<\/p>\n

The defensive line behind the watercourse between Opytne \u2013 S Zaitseve is interesting, UA has had time to prepare bridge layers now.<\/p>\n

If you see UA artillery, they are fiercely countering the next series of attack targets right now south and north of Bakhmut \u2013 probably a lot of explosive death there.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t have to be related to Patton because of a secretary who really liked champagne to understand that UA is organizing itself for renewed forward movement.<\/p>\n

At the Bakhmut front, they have complete drone, artillery, information, mechanized and capability superiority in the areas where they have their attack vectors.<\/p>\n

But instead of smashing through with everything, they maximize this to minimize their losses while still achieving attack objectives.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probably a couple of brigades that have fought so far, I guess.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible they rotate out battalions and bring in others from the same brigade or completely new ones?<\/p>\n

What happens a week ahead will be very interesting to see because then they fight against VDV regiments. One should prepare to break through at some point as part of the Bakhmut operation. On a strategic level, they are probably satisfied that RU has to heavily draw on its last offensive reserve.<\/p>\n

RU units must also be taken from somewhere so they get weaker elsewhere and UA has so far been living gods at exploiting that.<\/p>\n

We have heard that they have emptied Belarus of Russian units now and probably are deploying all reserves they have. There should still be around 150,000 total in Russia.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t they also need to think about defending Belgorod and Kursk now, so presumably they will need to keep units there?<\/p>\n

Around Bakhmut, they seem to use all types of indirect fire they have access to. The accent man explained a film I\u2019ve seen before where they fired a meteor at an entire defense system.<\/p>\n

UA air is starting to become active if we read the daily reports.<\/p>\n

They absolutely have artillery superiority in Bakhmut and don\u2019t need to get tangled up in counter-battery fire but can calmly decimate Russians in trenches.<\/p>\n

According to a RU soldier in Bakhmut, they have so much ammunition that they waste shells on individual soldiers.<\/p>\n

All this is a big plus for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Apparently, the 5th storm brigade has also been deployed in combat now, another newly formed brigade but not the one we think of with all the Western weapons.<\/p>\n

So what pluses does RU have at the moment? Zero, I would say.<\/p>\n

UA fights only with brigades they have in the vicinity while RU must transport units from as far away as Vuhledar and Avdiivka if I understand this correctly.<\/p>\n

UA attacks with 2-3 out of 20 existing brigades in the area and RU retreats with 3-4 brigades and brings forward 3-4 new reserve brigades taken from other front sections.<\/p>\n

From that, we can be pretty sure that RU does not have 20 brigades standing in the area, right?<\/p>\n

This is just one front out of 5-6 depending on how you count and UA\u2019s offensive reserve of maybe 20 brigades with top-shelf Western weapons has not yet been shown.<\/p>\n

So far, UA has fought very balanced \u2013 crush RU defense with indirect fire and overrun the remnants.<\/p>\n

What other minuses does RU have \u2013<\/p>\n

RU air should have swarmed over Bakhmut by now but it hasn\u2019t. Many have been very worried that before they get fighter jets they can\u2019t go on the offensive \u2013 why isn\u2019t the sky over Bakhmut darkened by Russian air then?
\n(I think I know \u2013 UA fired a serious warning shot the other day\u2026)<\/p>\n

RU artillery should have increased its intensity but it hasn\u2019t either, destroyed depots and skyrocketing artillery losses can probably be guessed to have something to do with that.<\/p>\n

However, they have brought forward VDV which is the offensive reserve of maybe +50,000 still left.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 of course, VDV is not immune to indirect fire in any way, if they don\u2019t have access to their own counter-battery fire, their own drones, countermeasures against drones and air, they die just as quickly as all other troop types in this war, right?<\/p>\n

Have you thought about this \u2013 in the battles around Bakhmut there has been Russian shooting. The only times we have seen armored vehicles is during counterattacks.<\/p>\n

Supports the thesis that RU is very short on armored vehicles quite well I think since their defense normally includes armored vehicles as well.<\/p>\n

This is going to be violent \u2013 I don\u2019t see how RU can regain balance at all around Bakhmut and they are hopelessly outpaced in everything except Russian in a hole and those you kill with wing grenades from drones which you have unlimited supply of.<\/p>\n

I also don\u2019t think they have an armored brigade and two artillery brigades around Soledar if they haven\u2019t planned offensive operations.<\/p>\n

Then there should probably be movement over the Dnieper as a good second?<\/p>\n

And increased pressure between N Vuhledar up to Horlivka.<\/p>\n

There was a very heated discussion before Sweden sent a lot of weapons about whether we sacrificed positive PR and future jobs.
\nThere were strong opinions in the thread that weapon use in UA didn\u2019t affect future sales at all.<\/p>\n

We give you Patriot.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1658431313769029635?s=46&t=w56s4VMd-vE5_QRCYG_6vw<\/a><\/p>\n

That top diplomat from China who went to Ukraine to probe ahead of peace talks. Has he already been to Russia?
\nHaven\u2019t heard anything about that but can\u2019t decide if this counts as being thrown under the bus or not.
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/top-chinese-envoy-visit-ukraine-russia-peace-mission-2023-05-15\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Thoughts on Prigozhin \u2013 he is now a well-known face, a soldier, a leader, he cares about his men, he is a product of a corrupt system. That man has probably managed to polish his image considerably back home in Russia. One would never have thought that, I must admit. If he survives the war, he will probably become a poster name for something, one can guess?<\/p>\n

Then the legend Claes Andersson himself pointed out that the hills slope to the east throughout the country, so RU always has an uphill battle, a brilliant observation. Right now, UA is positioning itself so that they can throw stones at the defense in Klishchivka.<\/p>\n

This one was so simple that even I understood it, half-life for a Russian in a trench is constantly shortened.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1658703076965101568?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n

When you read this, it feels like the UN is completely obsolete and can be shut down.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defenceu\/status\/1658564717651152906?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion we’ve had many times about RU being classified as a terrorist state and that this would allow access to all pro-Russians through anti-terrorism legislation? Since RU has so much subversive activity, I consider it justified. It seems the USA thinks so too.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1658591630968979456?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I still hope that they can hold out and not give up the last part in central Bakhmut even though it is the smartest thing to do. It’s really incredible that it hasn’t happened earlier, a clear proof that the Russians are much weaker than one thinks.<\/p>\n

By the way, have you missed that the Russians have made a \u201chuge\u201d advance north of Kupiansk? There they have managed to turn several hundred meters into contested territory! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

#RussiaIsATerroristState!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Oh, totally missed that\u2026<\/p>\n

UA is weak along that front so if RU pools in reserves there, they can probably cause some trouble.<\/p>\n

Is it a larger operation?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Seems quite harmless so far but it has happened now so it might be worth keeping an eye on.
\nSo far such a small change that one might think it is a map correction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Twitter rumors about Bakhmut<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1658811869379940360?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:57 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Sounds good!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Good that it highlights who is peddling Russian psyops. https:\/\/twitter.com\/jkaarsbo\/status\/1658754909959856129?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ 12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude +1 12:49 \u2013 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