{"id":7891,"date":"2023-05-22T10:01:30","date_gmt":"2023-05-22T08:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:06:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:06:16","slug":"2023-05-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Storm is coming \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1660383152769040386?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg<\/a>
\n(sounds a bit more violent than “spring is coming” I must say).<\/p>\n

We discussed last week that UA rotated units around Bakhmut and Gregg now suggested that the rotation should be complete.<\/p>\n

Klischivka is probably recently recaptured, one can guess.<\/p>\n

The line Opytne \u2013 southern Zaitseve will be interesting to see, a bit unclear which units are holding it but if it\u2019s VDV it can probably hold a bit longer. According to Defmon, however, they have pulled some of the VDV to the Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasna line.<\/p>\n

Anyway, motivation among the trench-Russians should be worn down with enormous amounts of well-targeted indirect fire over this line.<\/p>\n

The built-up area in Bakhmut is completely irrelevant, the analogy of fighting over the best table on the Titanic is striking.<\/p>\n

Gregg writes that they are pressing towards Berkhivka north of the built-up area in Bakhmut, that is more than what we see from other sources.<\/p>\n

It should start moving in Bakhmut this week (again).<\/p>\n

So far it is a huge success mainly because RU has had to pull units from several different fronts to stabilize and UA has attacked while numerically inferior but utilized their capabilities excellently.<\/p>\n

They have dedicated 4-6 battalion tactical groups and thus have very large reserves to continue offensive operations on the Bakhmut front, they have around 20 brigades at that front in total.<\/p>\n

We discussed northern Luhansk last week, and MXT was first out, that RU has started moving in that area. There were flashes about reinforcements from the Twitter generals.<\/p>\n

As a diversion it\u2019s not so bad and it\u2019s the shortest route for reinforcements from Russia, a card RU should play.
\nUA has played their cards very well so far \u2013 caused disorder in Bakhmut and hit troop movements hard.<\/p>\n

We are following almost in real time the devastation by stormshadows and they deliver a much bigger blow than they had access to before \u2013 a big hit with much death.<\/p>\n

Now brigade staff positions are going down daily and a brigade without anyone answering in the field monkey will, according to Russian tradition, become passive and open the mess tin?<\/p>\n

UA has thus resourced the spring offensive and besides the air force which is needed directly they are now making rounds to resource an autumn offensive (if needed\u2026). More countries are delivering increasingly and UA will stand even stronger this autumn after the mud if needed \u2013 all talk about ammunition shortage and weapon shortage is behind us \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

This has been brought up by several thread legends but pilots are becoming scarce now too. Don\u2019t underestimate the quarrels before the daily briefings about who will be forced to fly into the UA artillery umbrella, it probably swings wildly.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defmon3\/status\/1660525071713157121?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n

A small calibration regarding losses \u2013 <\/p>\n

Biden said 100,000 in Bakhmut, he refers to total losses.<\/p>\n

Reznikov said 70,000 in Bakhmut, also total losses.<\/p>\n

A Wagner soldier said “tens of thousands” in losses which is a strong plural.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660368812649185286?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg<\/a><\/p>\n

This suggests that RU has taken losses maybe in Reznikov\u2019s figure?<\/p>\n

One single front out of 5-6, one can guess what the total losses have been here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The mud season this autumn is also the end of the spring offensive and it is absolutely in UA\u2019s interest not to start too late here.<\/p>\n

Phase 1 has started \u2013 the Bakhmut offensive.<\/p>\n

Phase 2 should not be far away as one should reasonably start within a window when RU is shaken. We all know how it starts.<\/p>\n

Where the second reserve army corps appears somewhere is really the interesting thing.<\/p>\n

There are also presumably intense diplomatic attempts to get RU to leave Ukraine. A thought that struck me but is a bit too much wishful thinking would be if RU declares victory over having taken Bakhmut and completely leaves Ukraine. That is too far down the bubble list to be taken seriously \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

It will not be a quiet week and I absolutely don\u2019t think we should underestimate the 9th and 10th army corps.
\nRU has also managed their defense up at Bakhmut terribly and moreover does not have units to cover all the defenses they have built \u2013 there are plenty of weak points.
\nUA naturally has the intelligence situation in real time as usual.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hohoho \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660540206548647936?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sorry but what is this?<\/p>\n

Has Belgorod gone and freed itself from the yoke?<\/p>\n

That one was not expected.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1660560473933115394?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

We know that Budanov has discussions with nearby regions but to completely cut the thread was not thought to be on the table.<\/p>\n

Wow if that\u2019s true \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now I\u2019m running away quite far but we know from the Budanov interview that the four regions around UA they hope can become UA-friendly or demilitarized. A buffer zone and surely they promise trade in exchange.<\/p>\n

So far so good, a map and some discussions with potential allies.<\/p>\n

Now UA has attacked a border post on Russian territory \u2013 also according to plan \u2013 projecting a threat against Belgorod.<\/p>\n

Then came video from Russian soldiers fighting for UA that Belgorod shall rise against the occupiers.<\/p>\n

Now the first questions are out if Belgorod has declared that they have freed themselves from Russia?<\/p>\n

If that is the case and UA rolls into Belgorod with the numbers they have up there to defend Belgorod against Russian aggression it would be quite dizzying.<\/p>\n

They have then done infinitely more than projecting a threat and RU now has problems on the home front.<\/p>\n

There are then three more regions on Budanov\u2019s map \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

If this is true RU will not be able to send much to UA going forward and above all it will get the snowball rolling in Russia splitting apart.<\/p>\n

UA took the fight to Russia.<\/p>\n

Breaking if true but right now I\u2019m biting on every rumor \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russian units fighting in UA.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660568324638425088?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Who urge uprising in Belgorod.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

As a diversion it is excellent, now the question is if there is a bigger purpose behind it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Emergency meeting in Belgorod.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660583403752771584?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I think it was LABAN who several months ago thought that Ukraine should attack Belarus. I then suggested that it would be better if it went towards Belgorod because it should create enormous disorder for the Russians. <\/p>\n

Keeping my fingers crossed that this is serious!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Regardless if it is serious or not it seems they have messed things up for them! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Could it be that they have equipped and cooperated with the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Legion Freedom of Russia” and let them go into Belgorod. Would be quite smart because then Ukraine can swear itself free since it is Russians fighting Russians?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This is one of the liberation fronts, not RU soldiers who have fought in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Hats off \u2013 well coordinated \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1660589003148521475?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Second.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

So\u2026 at minimum RU must rush several brigades into Belgorod oblast which then cannot be sent down to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

What we call the projected threat against Belgorod.<\/p>\n

At most it becomes some kind of uprising that spreads like ripples on water and Russia turns inward.<\/p>\n

That country is so infinitely vulnerable, absolutely incredible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

If AFU is not involved, one can hope that the “Freedom of Russia Legion” or whoever they are have enough people and equipment to really make the Russians take it seriously.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now they have stolen a tank too in Belgorod \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/j08727366\/status\/1660720017887862787?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Darth Putin is pleased with the Russian offensive \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1660719575028371456?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

These videos are making the rounds in Russia now \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660719544149716995?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here you have the kicker \u2013 read and think about how brilliant this is with Belgorod.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/iaponomarenko\/status\/1660682640435888130?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Rybar thinks there will be more “reconnaissance battles” \u2013 invasions.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1660735230368514048?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Bakhmut holds<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660892208080248832?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

So they have defense systems just outside the buildings and then it sounds like they still hold some building, maybe the one with the red roof?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1 Storm is coming \u270a https:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1660383152769040386?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg (sounds a bit more violent than “spring is coming” I must […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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