{"id":7894,"date":"2023-05-23T09:26:53","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T07:26:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:06:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:06:40","slug":"2023-05-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday was probably the most fun day in a long time when the “recon fights” broke out halfway up to Belgorod.<\/p>\n

The quick-witted will realize that this was the diversion maneuver on the northern front that was in the cards.<\/p>\n

Now Ukraine, true to form, has spiced it up with everything extra and one should probably not underestimate the mess they have caused here \u2013
\n-Belgorod Peoples Republic, BPR.
\n-Referendum.
\n-Protect Russian citizens (from the Kremlin\u2026).
\n-Freedom of Russia goes out in all media demanding that Russia should be liberated \u2013 well coordinated with ethnically Russian units that have fought in Ukraine, Russian liberation fronts, and an absolutely massive psyops.<\/p>\n

Then there have apparently been “liberation acts” in Belgorod for quite some time now. We actually know this because too many sabotages, we guessed, have been due to the 3-4 “liberation fronts” operating in Russia.<\/p>\n

This is what Russian telegrams woke up to \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660719544149716995?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard not to be impressed by Ukraine and again the quick-witted have probably asked what happened to all the defense lines that were built in Belgorod Oblast?<\/p>\n

It is absolutely staggering to think that Russia has left its land border with Ukraine completely undefended, because that is what it was.<\/p>\n

Russian milbloggers have talked for months about UA troop concentrations against the northern front but the Russian combat leadership has obviously been risk-taking a bit beyond the norm.<\/p>\n

Finally, Budanov got to do as he wanted \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The Russians are really the very definition of incompetence here.<\/p>\n

There is no reason for “freedom russia” to leave before it starts to burn.<\/p>\n

Then they retreat across the border and make a guest appearance a few miles away and so on, they can keep doing that, right.<\/p>\n

If you remember a previous discussion, Ukraine was supposed to have some surprises to pull out, we had a long list that we thought Budanov was mulling over \u2013 we didn\u2019t get a Grom 2 in the Kremlin (unfortunately) but we got the trolling on the northern front, long-range (storm shadow) and we got the strike aircraft. We did not get Belarus which I probably thought would come first.<\/p>\n

Since they have made their move against the center (Bakhmut) and the northern flank, you don\u2019t have to be related to Patton to understand that something will happen down south soon.<\/p>\n

I’ve never read Sun Tzu but I guess exploiting momentum and when the opponent is out of balance is kind of A1 in warfare in that book?<\/p>\n

Now the Russians will have to pause many brigades that were supposed to go south in Ukraine to go on defense along the northern front instead \u2013 since UA has over 30,000 in that area, RU will probably be forced to similar numbers along the northern front?<\/p>\n

They had a reserve of 150,000 according to reports so 20% of their reserve just became unusable and they were needed in Ukraine \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

One does not pull units away from Ukraine for this reasonably but one does not send these 20% reserves there.<\/p>\n

There should be movement in Bakhmut this week, since units have rotated it will release quite significantly somewhere at the three attack vectors Soledar, S Bakhmut and N Bakhmut. <\/p>\n

Or N Bakhmut was not really an attack vector in the big Schlieffen plan anyway\u2026<\/p>\n

It should also move south fairly soon, crossing the Dnieper is probably not far off, can happen simultaneously with offensive operations on the southern front along one or all three attack vectors.<\/p>\n

I have managed to figure out a brigade that has Leopard 2A4 and know where it is \u2013 no surprise there \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now maybe I\u2019m hoping for a bit too much here but I always do \u2013 now that we have the autonomous republic BPR maybe other oblasts, republics or even Belarus think it\u2019s time for some freedom?
\nThe bubble list and you shouldn\u2019t predict outcomes on it but proclaiming BPR and asking for protection against the Kremlin from other Russians is absolutely brilliant.<\/p>\n

You should be able to run that rep trick in Belarus with the Kalinousky regiment I think?<\/p>\n

I also get the impression that this is more well-coordinated than we dare hope for.<\/p>\n

You should see all this as a chain of events that are connected within a startup window. The units at Bakhmut were initially deployed furthest out but now the units at the Dnieper have been deployed long enough to have been able to start for a while now. On the southern front, the battering rams are now also deployed long enough.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk is probably the area that is not resourced yet and the area between N of Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka as well. The existing units can probably keep up the pressure but for an offensive they need the other reserve army corps that we today do not know what it is up to.<\/p>\n

One starts to wonder if this is the last layer in all layers of the Ukrainian onion \u2013 where will it strike?<\/p>\n

Want to remind about Urazovo which MickeUppsala pitched a long time ago, north of Kupiansk.
\nUA has an armored brigade that is standing and half sleeping up there and as many have pointed out could encircle the entire Svatove line and take it in the rear \u2013 understand that these are positive clouds from my side but now when all available units in the area are being sent to Belgorod it would be fun if they struck there too \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now it gets even wilder speculation and I find the door out myself \u2013 are the raids into Russia, which are deeply humiliating for Putin, a commissioned job by the opposition?<\/p>\n

Or is it a genuine attempt by Ukraine to give other oblasts their freedom, the oblasts closest to Ukraine are Ukraine-friendly and UA preferably wants good relations with them, Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov and one more.
\nAs said, you shouldn\u2019t predict outcomes on the bubble list but that Russia turns inward is high up.<\/p>\n

Something that has disappeared in the discussion is that the Russian army is anorexic but there are 500,000 soldiers in all agencies, PMC and Rosgvardia in Russia for just such situations.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 these Russian freedom fighters looked very well armed, night fighting equipment, Western weapons, targeting means and so on \u2013 almost like SOF groups.
\nThey also have great combat experience and have surely been trained by the West.<\/p>\n

I think UA has gone over and beyond the diversion or trolling we had imagined up at the northern front or Belarus.<\/p>\n

You can then wonder if they will go over and beyond our expectations regarding further offensive operations \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Forgot this \u2013<\/p>\n

Rybar considers there is reason for concern that these “raids” will continue.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1660735230368514048?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

And this one, hard to disagree, right?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/iaponomarenko\/status\/1660682640435888130?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It\u2019s a carbon copy of what the Russians have done in Ukraine just to mess things up.<\/p>\n

Then it is basically a diversion maneuver.<\/p>\n

And if they get positive spin on it and further chaos, that\u2019s only good.<\/p>\n

Understood BingBongs comment from this morning that Russia has felt so protected by the West that they have completely neglected their defense \u2013 maybe some reflection in the West that over a year into this they are still playing into Putin’s hands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! Finally got time to read your post (I’m a bit behind since yesterday when I didn’t get anything useful done here at work).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

haha, yes yesterday you forgot you had a job \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Miss Dengamle here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Good thing it seems calmer today so you can get something done! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Yes, unfortunate that DENGAMLE has been absent and missed yesterday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Is it the same as your MXT?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1660962993071431683?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n

We must not forget that UA attacked on THREE points inside Russia.<\/p>\n

We knew that yesterday but now all discussion is about which one went the furthest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The raid into Russia does not seem to be over.<\/p>\n

There are three penetration points.<\/p>\n

Buildings are burning in Belgorod.<\/p>\n

Do we have any information about any kind of \u201cuprising\u201d here?
\nThat any of the existing liberation fronts have jumped on the bandwagon?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

That is probably the same, but more has been added, I don’t think I’ve seen Horkivskyi before.:
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1660974755023925258<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Wait here Ben \u2013 so you are saying you think a Nazi will rule Belgorod based on the fact that he is a company commander in a Russian force in the Ukrainian army?<\/p>\n

And then you wonder what kind of regime it would be.<\/p>\n

Do you have any basis at all for that claim?<\/p>\n

I read it as when you put liberation in quotation marks and how you ask the question, you consider what is happening to be something negative?<\/p>\n

Why do you consider it negative (if I have not misunderstood you)?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

What\u2019s happening, now the governor is stopping the counter-terror operation.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1661026138477539328?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

It says here:
\n\u201dThe counter terrorist operation in Bilhorod has been canceled.
\nThe occupation governor is probably negotiating his capitulation.<\/p>\n

Long live Bilhorod People\u2019s Republic \u203c\ufe0f\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Apparently a lot of fighting in Belgorod<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1661047282165338115?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

And Gravyoron back in Russian hands<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1661055813312561161?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:07 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yesterday was probably the most fun day in a long time when the “recon fights” broke 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