{"id":7899,"date":"2023-05-25T10:15:20","date_gmt":"2023-05-25T08:15:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-25-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:07:05","slug":"2023-05-25-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-25-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now the Accent Man came before I had time to post so I have to include a link to him that someone legendary already posted in the thread.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/3VxMqN9XFeE<\/a><\/p>\n

It became clear yesterday that the heroes from the Belgorod raid have retreated back into Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1661488245803483136?s=46&t=HpwTA1HHcadHgRmxj2N2Og<\/a><\/p>\n

The border was undefended, the dragon’s teeth p<\/p>\n

recisely as bad as we assumed they would be and the Russian reaction at the border was inactivity for the first 1.5 days.
\nIn three waves they crossed the border into Russia and the group that got the feeling went a mile in before resistance began to form.<\/p>\n

The propaganda purpose was achieved and many experiences were surely gained.<\/p>\n

The biggest wedge for Putin was probably reports that the 73rd brigade and units from the 3rd division were pulled away from northern Luhansk and Vuhledar. Erik14 was first with this sensational news.<\/p>\n

One can then start to wonder where the 150,000 reserves that should be up in Russia are?
\nThe 73rd brigade has taken hits at Vuhledar and the brigades from the 3rd division have been devastated by SOF all winter and participated in countless failed attacks towards Lyman.<\/p>\n

One should not underestimate the mess UA is causing here, now an old Polish general has started discussing how to assist Belarus’s liberation.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1661508990499520512?s=46&t=HpwTA1HHcadHgRmxj2N2Og<\/a><\/p>\n

The only Russian large-scale oligarch they are really afraid of is revolution, everything else they can navigate but revolution is like the staircase into the haunted house at Gr\u00f6na Lund, you try to find the rhythm but end up hanging on the handrail and screaming while the steps smack you in the back.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we dived deep into this but WordPress released the post a bit late \u2013 the conclusion was probably that one should not underestimate this.<\/p>\n

By the way, this should become a regular weekly humiliation of Putin, if one guesses RU has now reinforced the conflict area but there is another stretch that is completely unguarded \u2013 this would be very Russian.<\/p>\n

Then Accent Man wrote that they used a large number of drones to take out Russians in a pit \u2013 an effective weapon that we have discussed many times.<\/p>\n

We also read daily about all explosions in the rear and as usual Accent Man has all inside info. and they follow RU troop movements almost in real time and rain them with tungsten when they stand in line for their meat soup.<\/p>\n

We may soon have to start talking about the Russian army in terms of game and endangered species instead of an invasion force.<\/p>\n

There is movement at Bakhmut but I have been a bit busy as a larger dredger (dredging machine?) is on its way in and we are preparing our controls but I intend to dive back into the victory march soon.<\/p>\n

So \u2013 at Bakhmut it broke through immediately and they have to rush units from other fronts to stabilize, which they don’t have units for.<\/p>\n

Up at the northern front it was completely undefended and they have to rush units from northern Luhansk and Vuhledar.
\nAnyone who thinks the southern front is like hitting Putin against a concrete wall repeatedly or like a house of cards that you just need to poke?<\/p>\n

It is in the attacker’s nature to look for a weak point and there are plenty at the southern front.
\nWe can also be quite sure that not all fortifications are manned.<\/p>\n

The tricky areas are the city of Donetsk, the city of Horlivka and the city of Luhansk but we know from the big campaign plan that they will get in “behind” (east of) them and cut the lifeline to supplies.<\/p>\n

Something that came up yesterday that Accent Man also picks up on is that it is the DPR (mainly LPR I think) that will take over at Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

There is also a twitter rumor that RU is preparing a retreat from Donbass to focus on Crimea \u2013 highly unconfirmed and highly twitter rumor.<\/p>\n

If they get the idea to leave Donbass to the rather battered rebel army, the dark horse \u2013 1st and 2nd Army corps will raise weapons to sail to the top.<\/p>\n

So far we have had three weeks of offensive operations from UA and RU is completely spun out on the sidelines, UA has all the initiative and RU reacts.<\/p>\n

We have discussed since spring 2022 that the critical mass was on UA’s side and it obviously still is.
\nUA continues to fight with fewer numbers and utilize their palette of capabilities better \u2013 very nice.<\/p>\n

If they get the idea to strike locally with 1:4 or 1:5 and unleash their combined arms warfare on the poor Russians it will go fast.<\/p>\n

May was certainly an exciting month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Before I go loose I just have to write that these are highly loose twitter rumors.<\/p>\n

If one guesses we will soon come to the point where the Russians have to choose (again\u2026) where they want to defend.<\/p>\n

The northern front they must defend.<\/p>\n

If they give up all of northern Luhansk they must defend this entire new front that then borders Ukraine.
\nTherefore I am a bit inclined to think that after the Belgorod raid they are not so eager to give up northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

What remains is the Bakhmut front but there they must defend the new Popasna line.<\/p>\n

Maybe they have to choose between trying to hold the southern front and then Crimea or Donbass?<\/p>\n

Don’t know but that is a possible outcome here actually. But as said twitter rumors and very loose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Podolyak believes that the “major offensive” has started a couple of days ago.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1661630097743396864?s=46&t=HpwTA1HHcadHgRmxj2N2Og<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Posting here just one opinion from him or Pstyle to clarify<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:10 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

May IS an exciting month! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

How surprised the Russians will be if they give up Donbass and then discover that they still have to give up Crimea. Then they have really sold the vodka and lost the ruble and have to swim home with the appliances on their back (because Ukraine will of course do as you mentioned yesterday, blow up the bridge and lock them in so they get peace and quiet to liberate all other areas before they return).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Video with Prigozhin when Wagner starts leaving Bakhmut \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1661635464523141121?s=46&t=HpwTA1HHcadHgRmxj2N2Og<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now Russian football ultras have started supporting the Russian rebels.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1661694147210756096?s=46&t=k6Fr9aoNHCytEqu9G3u1kw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I did not know that the 1st tank army was completely mauled in battle!<\/p>\n

\u201dThe First Guards Tank Army at least had the excuse of being surprised and taken from the rear. Supporting the advance from Izium towards Sloviansk further south, the units were aligned in the southward direction. Attacked from behind by the UKR Fourth Tank Brigade, the most elite tank formation in the Russian Army was absolutely mauled; the Russian First Guards Tank Army lost 100 tanks in 100 hours.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02\u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA training on Gripen, or at least test flying \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/nyheternajohan\/status\/1661702563874447361?s=46&t=k6Fr9aoNHCytEqu9G3u1kw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Last as usual, good that I am consistent \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

hmmm, I have fixed myself at May 4, 2023 and can\u2019t change it so easily but like this \u2013 <\/p>\n

April 10, 2023, the intensity started to increase and UA announced it themselves. We talked about reconnaissance battles.<\/p>\n

Around April 20 there was a clear increase and then April 29 as you write.<\/p>\n

I sat and followed this and tried to decide when the intensity was high enough that it was no longer \u201creconnaissance battles\u201d and after many beers on the night of May 4 I decided it would be the following day.<\/p>\n

Thus completely unscientific and entirely based on the degree of intoxication.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude06<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This one has probably been up so I keep the style as number five but China has just abandoned the gas pipeline to Russia project.<\/p>\n

Throwing under the bus is a bit too mild because now the Russians get no export to China for their gas.<\/p>\n

They will have to keep hoarding useless rupees \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1661820512060751872?s=46&t=VDWOHgHfn304dkCv8YblkA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1 Now the Accent Man came before I had time to post so I have to include 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