{"id":7903,"date":"2023-05-26T09:21:53","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T07:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-26-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:07:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:07:24","slug":"2023-05-26-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-26-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There is no great value in threatening a “major offensive” and then waiting 3-4 months. However, there is value in threatening something in 3-4 months and then attacking earlier. Every Russian knows that UA has conducted its buildup; it is the when and where that they try to keep secret.<\/p>\n

We now know that Aidar has fought against VDV and we know that Aidar is in Bakhmut. VDV has defended the lines further back or alternatively conducted counterattacks but they were pushed back, it’s a bit unclear to me where the fighting took place. VDV thus was no game-changer at all here.<\/p>\n

It also seems confirmed that Wagner has started to retreat from Bakhmut, I think?<\/p>\n

Since this is Russia, we can be absolutely sure that large gaps are left in this withdrawal.<\/p>\n

This comes at the same time as UA has rotated in new units in Bakhmut; they seem to be fighting at battalion size.<\/p>\n

This is starting to feel like an opportunity and if anyone has reached wizard level in exploiting opportunities, it is Ukraine; they are close to legendary level.<\/p>\n

If Wagner pulls its hard core out of Bakhmut, the Russian army will have a very hard time plugging those holes with anything competent.<\/p>\n

The solution will likely be a retreat to the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line fairly soon, and the Twitter space is full of rumors that they are now fortifying that line.<\/p>\n

Then I have to flag a possible change but it depends a bit on how organized the Russians actually are here; that is the only factor that counts.<\/p>\n

They have already gotten black on white that the small land border they have on the northern front is very easy to smash through for not-so-small raids into Russia.<\/p>\n

Most recently, “freedom russia” has been inside taking photographs in Kursk Oblast and the second wave of raids into Belgorod is probably ongoing?<\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk, they have today two defensive lines and the city of Severodonetsk where they have built defenses over a long time.
\nThis defensive line is around 40% in length or thereabouts of the border they would have against Ukraine if they abandoned northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

It should thus have struck the Russian command that they cannot abandon northern Luhansk because then they leave a HUGE hole in their border defense that they simply cannot defend at all.<\/p>\n

However, this depends on whether the Russians can manage critical thinking, which they have not excelled in previously.
\nThen it can still happen that they prioritize something else higher than northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 they will very quickly come to the point where they have to choose what to defend.<\/p>\n

There may very well be substance behind the rumor of leaving Donbass to LPR and DPR, for a really lazy Russian colonel or general it might look attractive on paper to have someone else take care of this; they have Nth number of brigades that should very well manage a defense \u2013 signature, red star stamp and then let’s go?<\/p>\n

The rebels will stand there very long-faced with keys dangling in their hands wondering what the heck just happened. This whole uprising was only fun as long as you got to play rebel behind the Russian army.<\/p>\n

IF the Russians hand over Donbass to the rebels’ care, then the capitulation of the 1st and 2nd Army corps will shoot very high up on the bubble list.<\/p>\n

Anyone who thinks UA will not crush Russian defense, I give you KOS’s description of Izyum as the walking giant Skator posted in yesterday’s thread in a light blue cloud of joy. Was the citation right three paragraphs?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe First Guards Tank Army at least had the excuse of being surprised and taken from the rear. Supporting the advance from Izium towards Sloviansk further south, the units were aligned in the southward direction. Attacked from behind by the UKR Fourth Tank Brigade, the most elite tank formation in the Russian Army was absolutely mauled; the Russian First Guards Tank Army lost 100 tanks in 100 hours.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRemarkably, despite being in a reserve position, the Third Army Corps did worse.
\nAfter briefly running into the Ukrainian vanguard and losing a few armored vehicles, the Third Army Corps panicked and simply melted away by joining with the waves of retreating Russian soldiers from other units.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven what this Corps was given in terms of equipment\u2014essentially the last remaining large quantities of stored T-90Ms, T-80BVMs, and BMP3s\u2014it\u2019s hard to overstate just how disappointing the Third Army Corps\u2019 performance must be to Putin and the Ministry of Defense.\u201d<\/p>\n

Quick Explainer: The Russian Third Army Corps may be the worst unit in Russian History (dailykos.com)<\/p>\n

I was not aware of this whole story and this was at a time when intact units still remained.<\/p>\n

Ukraine thus defeated the 3rd Army corps with the best materiel and the 1st Tank army which was a (relative) elite unit totally, a half nelson straight down into the asphalt and finishes with an axe kick that everyone in school tried to learn in the 90s and the number of cracks in heels skyrocketed.<\/p>\n

Yesterday there was a Polish general discussing revolution in Belarus.
\nToday Russian football ultras have switched to the side of the Russian freedom defenders.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1661694147210756096?s=46&t=k6Fr9aoNHCytEqu9G3u1kw<\/a><\/p>\n

This is becoming more and more like when the Russian navy sailed halfway around the globe to punish the disobedient Japanese and was sunk in a few hours.<\/p>\n

This war is going terribly badly for Russia and Ukraine is advancing slowly, they have gradually increased the intensity here since May 4. Or actually they started increasing the intensity April 10, 2023 but I thought it was not high enough before May 4 and in a cloud of whisky I struck my gong on that date.<\/p>\n

The war was lost long ago and only Putin refuses to realize the accomplished fact.
\nThe story of the 3rd Army corps is hysterically funny, what a spectacular failure.<\/p>\n

What we see right now in Ukraine is how the Russians have completely lost their admittedly rather poor capability but they have had a capability to “overwhelm” with artillery and armor and that their spetsnaz, reconnaissance and VDV have been competent.
\nToday this capability is basically wiped out, the last 50,000 with combat experience they have had to draw from to protect the Bakhmut front.<\/p>\n

Ukraine on the other hand has carried out an enormous force buildup, already in spring 2022 it was clear that they had the critical mass to their advantage.<\/p>\n

Since last autumn they have trained and equipped units and when there was no winter offensive there were more and more brigades that were top-trained and equipped until they have around 20 “new” brigades. The definition of “new” is soldiers with combat experience, many months of extra training and decent materiel, better Soviet or Western.<\/p>\n

They also have all parts in place \u2013 intelligence gathering, fire control, the drone weapon, all types of indirect fire, the air force and army aviation.<\/p>\n

On top of that they have practiced brigade combat and a UA tank is an existential threat while a RU counterpart is a big target.<\/p>\n

I see this a bit like when you were drafted and got the tanks in the beginning, you struggled with the tank itself and were not a threat to anyone. As a tank commander you saw that the road turned left a bit further ahead, pressed the com button and declared “driver left” whereby the driver pulled the lever to full left turn and crashed straight into some barn or out into the terrain.<\/p>\n

The threat wasn\u2019t really the vehicles until several months later, and for a long time, the fighting was done at platoon strength.
\nOver a year later, we managed battalion-level combat somewhat adequately.<\/p>\n

The Russians seem like they are trying to manage driving the vehicles, and UA is beyond the final exercise with a lot already confirmed as taken out.<\/p>\n

It seems like they are bombing Dnipro because all the other locations have air defense, could there be some truth to that?
\nA 100% kill rate isn\u2019t very fun, so they bomb just about any community to get a few hits?
\nThings are going well now \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What you took from my post was WWF and karate, I see \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! Interesting thoughts, among other things about the \u201chole\u201d up in Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Wonder if we\u2019ll see more \u201cborder crossing\u201d in the north next week to further stress them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Seems to be communicated in various channels that it\u2019s time?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1662346044544282625?s=46&t=EK8Ttk3m3fMNArG0vkUHpQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Not this morning though, but that they are ready to start something bigger.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 There is no great value in threatening a “major offensive” and then waiting 3-4 months. 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