{"id":7913,"date":"2023-05-31T08:04:46","date_gmt":"2023-05-31T06:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:08:27","slug":"2023-05-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-05-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The drone attack on Moscow, apparently some fell in wealthy areas, is the same as the “Belgorod raid” (which is probably becoming more of an active resistance movement in Belgorod?) and shows Russia’s absolute inability to defend its territory.<\/p>\n

If it was a false flag, it was still a very poorly executed one; the best would have been to take some earlier prisoners of war and let them be “arrested” after the FSB shot some Russian bigwig that Putin wanted to get rid of?<\/p>\n

Putin’s speech was, as usual, absolutely mournful and he defended the air defense as much as he could \u2013 my money is on that it was not a false flag.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1663544685032529924?s=46&t=tx6b3mBWVkJV1M0GDIYqIA<\/a><\/p>\n

Below shows the explosion in a field from a drone (if it is real) and one must admit that the drones had good explosive power?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1663642236519686145?s=46&t=A8ADLe5D-RJdANVoKl9ejg<\/a><\/p>\n

Dozens of drones may not be a drone swarm but just imagine if dozens of drones had started diving towards their targets in Stockholm when we thought we had a small cleanup operation going well in Trondheim?<\/p>\n

That Russia cannot protect its capital against slow-moving drones is very significant.<\/p>\n

The country Russia is too large and evidently the security apparatus and defense are underdimensioned to manage the movements currently underway.<\/p>\n

In a very large number of provinces, oblasts, and republics, there are surely opposition or liberation movements sitting speechless watching what is happening right now and not believing it is true \u2013 the shadows have dispersed and Putin stands there in a pair of boxer shorts looking lost with the caviar spoon in his mouth.<\/p>\n

The fuse is already lit for Russia to turn inward due to the Belgorod raid, sabotage, and drone raids.
\nFreedom Russia has itself announced that they receive “tens of thousands” of applications and that Russian recruits enter Ukraine from “neutral countries”. If one is to guess, exiled Russians?<\/p>\n

It started as a shaking on the lower deck, as they say?<\/p>\n

How is it possible that this enormous Soviet repressive apparatus, which even nowadays tends to have opposition or threats to it commit suicide in any country, is so toothless when it is finally visible?<\/p>\n

I don’t know this well enough and am going free from memory so PerraG55 will probably straighten out where I go wrong \u2013 <\/p>\n

The fall of the Soviet Union was an attempt by generals not to lose the Soviet Union but it became Yeltsin and we know the rest.<\/p>\n

Putin was probably an FSB candidate when it started?<\/p>\n

Putin gradually broke away and made the Rosgvardia his own little army. In that process, he weakened some other agency, I don’t remember which, but he took their “armed branch” and added it to the Rosgvardia.<\/p>\n

Just from that, I think one can read that the country has had violent internal conflicts for quite some time, so instead of trying to control the country and have everyone pull in the same direction, they have possibly positioned themselves internally for quite a while?<\/p>\n

Like a workplace where everyone pulls in different directions and has their own agendas instead of doing their job.<\/p>\n

Then you have all the suicides (there are many) and that is as clear a sign as anything that there are some internal tensions between the leadership group and the unit chiefs?<\/p>\n

Part of this is presumably that the armed forces have been weakened, but all levels of the armed forces have evidently also run an Afghan war straight through all branches on their own initiative so that the depletion could become total.<\/p>\n

My big question after Belgorod is \u2013<\/p>\n

-where are the 150,000 reserves that we were told were in the training camps in Russia, they are not in Belgorod anyway.<\/p>\n

\u2013 where are the internal troops from all agencies, why haven’t they flooded Belgorod \u2013 something like this is exactly what they are for?<\/p>\n

Could they have run an Afghan war through the agencies as well?<\/p>\n

They shouldn’t have because they are different factions’ private armies that are supposed to fight other factions’ private armies and one should have kept them fed so you have the best private army to take out other factions’ private armies with?<\/p>\n

The conclusion should be that they are saving them for something and that this something is internal?<\/p>\n

The country Russia has enjoyed respect far beyond its strength position for a long time and no one has missed the last year \u2013 several places have taken steps they would never have dared a year ago and are leaving collaborations, meeting the US, China and openly criticizing Putin. Armenia and Azerbaijan have suddenly become the closest of friends.<\/p>\n

That said, Satan II is supposed to level Europe, the missile is unstoppable and the nuclear weapons are more than we can count even if they quickly emptied the stockpile in Belgorod.<\/p>\n

-Kinzhal was also unstoppable but Patriot (or other air defense\u2026) shoots down all night after night.
\n-SU-34 they lose many of
\n-Alligator AH-64s are almost endangered.
\n-T90 they have lost about 50 according to Oryx.
\n-Terminator BMP was not so hot.
\n-VDV soon wiped out.
\n-Spetsnaz soon wiped out.
\n-The attack divers died on a hill outside Kharkiv.<\/p>\n

This war has gone catastrophically since Hostomel and continues to go catastrophically but there are still those who give the Russians more respect than they deserve. One thing they have been world-leading at \u2013 getting more respect than they deserve and aggressive subversive activity.<\/p>\n

But that is only because the West are democracies and they let the schoolyard bully get away with it because he has difficult home conditions and if you can get him to do his homework he becomes a successful engineer too and contributes to the country’s common good.<\/p>\n

To ruthlessly exploit other countries’ humanity and democratic values in this way presumably has an expiration date.<\/p>\n

As I see it, the Russians have one card left to play \u2013 general mobilization.<\/p>\n

It did not come in January when it should have and we discussed that in detail.<\/p>\n

In April there was the voluntary mobilization of 400,000. That they had nothing to send to Belgorod at the end of May suggests it went so-so.<\/p>\n

One of the best things that could happen in this war is that the Russians panic and try to arm some million Russians \u2013 probably more than enough for a revolution?<\/p>\n

We have not seen that yet and one can guess it will never happen because the only thing this elite is really worried about is revolution.<\/p>\n

China could also have delivered man-portable air defense systems and air defense missiles in large quantities, they would have gotten away with it \u2013 they haven’t done that either.<\/p>\n

There is activity around Bakhmut and a low-intensity offensive is ongoing with several brigades engaged. Suddenly it happens and RU will fall back to the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line. That UA has taken a street or two inside the buildings in Bakhmut in recent days is naturally telling of how this will go.<\/p>\n

They have probably reinforced the defense in Horlivka now, but to the north south of Bilohorivka and near Lysychansk there will be a big hole when they retreat towards the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line which UA can exploit and drive the Russians up there to the other side of the Siversk Donets.<\/p>\n

A front collapse.<\/p>\n

It is far from calm up in Belgorod and my money is on UA having the intention to have good relations with all the oblasts bordering them from Krasnodar to Bryansk and that a possible way forward is greater autonomy for the oblasts, for example.<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine can become a leader in the region with good relations with its six neighbors (oblasts) as well as the country Belarus. That would be very attractive for Ukraine and all the oblasts have quite high UA sympathies if I understand this correctly.<\/p>\n

Not a bad end-game for this terrible war, I think, a geopolitical shift that guarantees the country Ukraine a bright future.<\/p>\n

Now they just have to win a war first and they are well on their way to doing that, the other parts of the battle plan remain in place and my suggestion yesterday about not stopping before Kerch was loose speculation but unclearly formulated \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Not the fall of the Soviet Union but when Yeltsin took office it should say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Poland and UA seem to have settled things amicably as I interpret it, the adults in the room?<\/p>\n

Yes, they will probably become a transit country for all that oil going forward once some new pipeline is reasonably built, Krasnodar Krai will also become a transit oblast and will benefit from it.<\/p>\n

All the other oblasts can probably trade with Ukraine and become prosperous as well?<\/p>\n

Turkey did not go in the right direction at all here, so an open card.<\/p>\n

Hungary probably won’t have much say in the future.<\/p>\n

In 10-15 years a lot of industry will be located in Ukraine and they will have collaborations with the surrounding oblasts.
\nAgriculture in Ukraine will probably suffice as well.<\/p>\n

The Visegrad countries get a new strong member and become a power factor in the EU?<\/p>\n

The eastern front against Russia goes via Petsamo through the Baltics and Belarus to Kerch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Just as a comparison, taking only one city \u2013 Johan No.1 has the utmost respect for all citizens of the Kingdom of Norway, all identities and others and everything else that I should respect, for I have very great respect.<\/p>\n

Johan No.1 also respects Norway’s full national integrity and does not in any way suggest an invasion to restore pre-1805 borders. He also does not suggest giving Norway half of Volvo so we get half the oil revenues.<\/p>\n

Go Norway, hooray.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Good morning Belgorod.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664139258314084355?s=46&t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664141815564435458?s=46&t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Full speed there still then. It will be interesting to see how it develops.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Crimean bridge is doing so-so these days \u2013<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1664154882360717314?s=46&t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Second after Erik14 is an honor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:55 \u2013 Johan No.1 The drone attack on Moscow, apparently some fell in wealthy areas, is the same as the 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