{"id":7933,"date":"2023-06-01T11:05:07","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T09:05:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-06-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:34:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:34:41","slug":"2023-06-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-06-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-06-01"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>What do we think about the Russians in Transnistria?<\/p>\n<p>It is a potential other diversion far out on the flank and as a bonus you would get a mob supply depot for an entire army corps. We thought permanent Schengen visas and a suitcase of cash for every soldier when we brainstormed about it during 2022 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>There have been endless rumors about the offensive date and Dengamle guards himself every night with a handful and that it will explode tonight \u2013 a very smart strategy. The earlier strong rumor was that UA planned to attack in early May but the weather made it impossible.<\/p>\n<p>After intensive studies of mud I was of the opinion that the ground would bear in certain areas from mid-April but it was a special year for the weather.<\/p>\n<p>If you have had the privilege to take Argus&#8217; course in mud and grass, the ground seems to have borne since some time in May and then the rains no longer mattered?<\/p>\n<p>We also discussed earlier that the weather is ONE factor and that the pieces that must fall into place are quite many.<\/p>\n<p>Resource-wise it should have been and the brigades have been deployed for a long time.<\/p>\n<p>Right now there is a bit of disappointment that the Saving Private Ryan offensive is not sweeping away Russians in a hole \u2013 an INCREDIBLE amount is happening every day, RU is on the defensive and UA on the offensive. The shift has happened. Every morning there is good positive news that makes you go extra fast down to the breakfast waffles.<\/p>\n<p>When history is written in a year or so it will be VERY interesting to know UA&#8217;s plans and what they actually envisioned versus the outcome.<\/p>\n<p>That they are in their initial phase is indisputable (I called it a window) so that there will be a violent offensive after Bakhmut and the diversion we can be completely sure of.<\/p>\n<p>Right now I don\u2019t understand the unit maps at all. It\u2019s a bit last-to-Kertch about the whole thing but I tend to think that apart from the attack vector we all know, the other brigades\u2019 deployment locations are simply not known or there for a reason.<\/p>\n<p>The currently worst defended front section seems to be from Bryansk westwards. From Vuhledar and northwards there is a higher density of RU units and they can anchor their defenses in the city of Donetsk and the city of Horlivka.<\/p>\n<p>I have managed to figure out where a brigade with Bradleys is lying in ambush \u2013 no news there but what we believe. You won\u2019t be surprised to hear that it neighbors a brigade with Leo2.<\/p>\n<p>What is rather unclear, and I got nowhere with the reasoning above, is where they plan to send the other &#8220;new&#8221; army corps. As I see it, 10 &#8220;new&#8221; brigades are not counted for and wherever they appear it will be a huge blow.<\/p>\n<p>If anyone still believes it was one (1) Belgorod raid, it\u2019s time to rethink in terms of the invasion of Belgorod.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s full speed up there and has probably been full speed since &#8220;Freedom Russia&#8221; got their idea approved.<\/p>\n<p>Tank duels,<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664141815564435458?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664141815564435458?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>And more raids,<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664139258314084355?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664139258314084355?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>We have seen both in Belgorod and near Bakhmut how Ukraine now fully masters combined arms warfare and its new capabilities \u2013 last winter our thought about breakthrough was roughly like this \u2013<\/p>\n<p>The information advantage is total, you know in real time which hole which Russian is in and what his breakfast looked like.<\/p>\n<p>When front-line pre-firing starts after burning up the rear, they knock out hard vehicles in defense.<\/p>\n<p>The infantry in the fortifications can either run into the reinforced fortification and get a high-explosive 155mm that collapses the fortification, a so-called Russian bulls-eye, or stay in open trenches and get wing grenades and air bursts over them. The Israeli GRK ammunition looks extremely unpleasant.<\/p>\n<p>When UA begins its retaking, they reasonably attack a weak point, it\u2019s a bit in the nature of the attack.<\/p>\n<p>The infantry (which so far has shown great willingness to hide or run instead of shooting back!!) must then get into firing position \u2013 fully exposed to drone-dropped wing grenades and air bursts, or guided ammunition.<\/p>\n<p>Of course UA pools the right weapon systems where they want a breakthrough.<\/p>\n<p>At the breakthrough lies a worn Russian brigade with a task force behind.<\/p>\n<p>The infantry must go up with near PV and PV missile, prioritized targets for the drones.<\/p>\n<p>The minefields are reconned and you can probably bypass some with bridges over watercourses.<\/p>\n<p>Other mining they have mortars or meteor for and bridge-layers, mortars, mine plows and mine rollers Ukraine now has so many of that they are starting to get tired of them \u2013 extreme quantities have been delivered.<\/p>\n<p>The mech brigades at the spearhead will reasonably have Western armor and Western armored vehicles. Direct fire on the target is very strong visual and sound impressions and from what we have seen in Bakhmut the fear of tanks seems to be simmering under the surface.<\/p>\n<p>Someone wrote in the thread a few months ago that the Russians have their nerves outside now \u2013 it certainly looked like that in Bakhmut.<\/p>\n<p>Then you have to survive the task force counterattack and they try to reach them already in their UFA, deployment or during advance with air or remotely laid mines.<\/p>\n<p>When they are cleared you have your breakthrough.<br \/>\nLex Maginot Line \u2013 then the rest of THE SAME line is obsolete and must be abandoned, over to the next.<\/p>\n<p>We joked early when 777 came that if they skipped coffee breaks they could wipe out a BTG in defense in one morning \u2013 when UA concentrates against a point, the palette of indirect weapon systems will probably cause very great damage.<\/p>\n<p>According to the big campaign plan, it is at the southern front that they have these types of defenses, in northern Luhansk and at Bakhmut they do not have that.<\/p>\n<p>The big campaign plan has guessed that they turn up &#8220;behind&#8221; the city of Donetsk and work their way upwards but if they get the feeling they have an entire army corps more with high breakthrough capability. You can always use it against a weak point at the old ceasefire line too if the opportunity opens up?<\/p>\n<p>The fact is that they probably have mine-clearing equipment and bridge-layers for quite a few breakthroughs here, if you go to Oryx there are so many that you can hardly sum them up.<\/p>\n<p>You can read about the decolonization of RU here.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/volodyatretyak\/status\/1663934530632183808?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/volodyatretyak\/status\/1663934530632183808?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>If we don\u2019t get information from UA bloggers we can always keep an eye on RU ones, they usually scream at the slightest thing.<br \/>\nSomething that has caught my interest is quite a lot around the Vuhledar and Volnovakha area lately mostly because then Erik14 saves five hundred.<\/p>\n<p>The waiting times are over and at least I only see good news nowadays but maybe that doesn\u2019t stand out so much since I have only seen good news the whole war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Shebekino is 30km from the city of Belgorod and has 40,000 inhabitants.<\/p>\n<p>Today the &#8220;municipal building&#8221; is burning and the staff are burning documents.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1664201022003204096?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1664201022003204096?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>+1 Everything seems to be ready now..<\/p>\n<p>Wonder who has the biggest problem waiting? <\/p>\n<p>The Russians in the pit who have chewed their nails down to the cuticles by now?<br \/>\nThe Ukrainian soldiers who have been standing and panting for weeks?<br \/>\nIt should at least not be us standing on the sidelines, even if it is hard<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, now it really is time to stop the suffering and get going!!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Forgot to comment regarding Transnistria. <\/p>\n<p>Honestly don\u2019t understand why nothing has been done about it earlier.<br \/>\nJust talk it over with Moldova and then get going. Bribing outright might not work since I guess there are probably family and relatives in Russia that the Russian soldiers know will be harmed.<\/p>\n<p>In that case, need to agree on staging a violent (but harmless) attack so it looks like the Russians have really been beaten and forced to give up.<\/p>\n<p>If it\u2019s not possible to agree with them, it probably won\u2019t be very hard to step in there anyway, there shouldn\u2019t be that many stationed there.<\/p>\n<p>Or could it be that Moldova doesn\u2019t dare and has put a stop..?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>We continue \u2013 UA (or maybe Russians) have invaded a city of 40,000 inhabitants in Russia and they have not been expelled.<\/p>\n<p>This is sensational. <\/p>\n<p>RU has had a week to get organized,<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664187365768790016?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664187365768790016?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>At least one platoon of tanks involved in this raid.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664181364839571456?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1664181364839571456?s=46&amp;t=1OI9zgGW3JddC7Zzup42nw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>A worried friend in a bunker never stops WhatsApping and wonders when a raid turns into an invasion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Take a look at where the city is located, this is somewhat incredible because RU has not secured the entire border after the &#8220;Belgorod raid&#8221;, this &#8220;raid&#8221; (or invasion?) is maybe 50km away from the last time it happened.<\/p>\n<p>So they can\u2019t even defend a 50km stretch of their land border when they have had a week to do so.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>There are about 30,000 soldiers in that area, maybe they have discarded the entire battle plan (which took so insanely long to write) and are betting everything on an invasion of Russia instead \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>Infinitely embarrassing for the Kremlin if that were the case.<\/p>\n<p>On Topic \u2013 the fastest way to empty Ukraine would probably be if an invasion into Russia got full speed ahead?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>12:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n<p>It would be 30,000 UA soldiers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Pretty incredible and not a little entertaining!<\/p>\n<p>Damn smart actually. Whatever the Russians do it\u2019s wrong for them.<br \/>\nIf they throw in lots of troops they have to take them from other front sections. If they do as now, not seriously deploying anything, just keep going and press on\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>13:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>To summarize \u2013 free Russia\u2019s big Belgorod raid went beyond expectations and companies of Russians were wiped out.<\/p>\n<p>A week later they do another raid about 50km from the previous intrusion point and manage to pull the same trick.<\/p>\n<p>The time between these two bigger raids, the second with tanks, has not been calm at all, there has been heavy fighting around Belgorod oblast to the point that it is suspected to be an insurgency (whatever that is called in Swedish).<\/p>\n<p>They can\u2019t defend 50km, UA can repeat this an infinite number of times over the many hundred kilometers long border with Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Where are the reinforcements and all the internal troops?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>14:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Another one who believes in the big battle plan that Dengamle largely came up with even though the undersigned wrote it down.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noclador\/status\/1664221467205091330?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/noclador\/status\/1664221467205091330?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>16:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>What the hell \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<p>PerraG55, I\u2019m thinking the VIP section isn\u2019t full yet?<br \/>\nArgus and Rasmus are the ones sitting in there but there are still seats available.<\/p>\n<p>Or are you thinking more around the bridge?<br \/>\nYou only have two assistants so far and I don\u2019t know if we have gone through the helmsman, first mate and all those roles yet?<\/p>\n<p>I understand we need to come up with something that matches his position, what are you thinking here?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Probably the whisper game that has gone a bit hard but could it be rebels settled in Belgorod?<\/p>\n<p>Or partisans?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kremlintrolls\/status\/1664282271829082112?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/kremlintrolls\/status\/1664282271829082112?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>18:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Hello thread, Moldova \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1664295260380442625?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1664295260380442625?s=46&amp;t=UQuJk0L9nEpoluO8Px8pEg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>18:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>The above tweet might have been psyops that credible bloggers fell for, FYI!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>18:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>The blogger might want to remove it, seems to be confirmed psyops and it\u2019s unfortunate it got onto the blog\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>19:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>The tweet is now deleted so LW doesn\u2019t need to delete your post.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>20:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n<p>Who posted what?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1 What do we think about the Russians in Transnistria? It is a potential other diversion far [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2023-06-01 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-06-01-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-06-01 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1 What do we think about the Russians in Transnistria? 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