{"id":7951,"date":"2023-06-10T10:34:27","date_gmt":"2023-06-10T08:34:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-06-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:39:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:39:03","slug":"2023-06-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-06-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-06-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A little retrospective \u2013 when the “Azov thrust” was coined sometime in spring 2022, there were two quite clear camps where one considered it to be “free fantasies and kindergarten level” on the completely serious reasoning around what got the working name Azov thrust by some genius in the thread.<\/p>\n

Today, June 10, 2023, we are sitting and watching the offensive unfold before us and Russia is fully occupied trying to plug the holes at two of the attack vectors and at the third it is suspiciously quiet.<\/p>\n

One can only have the highest respect for Ukraine here, they were written off by many but have endured 1.5 years of indescribable abuses to finally be well on their way to winning this war entirely on their own.<\/p>\n

Not a day goes by without thinking about the endless amount of tragedies unfolding in the country and that this sh1t war should end but it only ends when Russia has retreated back to the 1991 borders, it seems that simple.<\/p>\n

The past weeks have developed into full war down here as well, an overarching project manager from the underground. Now he finally managed to throw furniture at the locally employed engineers and the secretary in a tantrum worthy of a preschool child, the countdown has started unless the local engineers feed him to the sharks first because they seriously seem to be planning something like that. You don’t often see someone tear down their office room because the new office chair wasn’t comfortable enough.<\/p>\n

Take a look at Nathan Ruser’s return and how the fortifications are built at the southern front.
\nZaporizhzhia Russian Fortifications (earthengine.app)<\/p>\n

The fact is that if these are the “most extensive fortifications since World War II,” then it is not much in the world RU has managed to build during the past year.<\/p>\n

We have discussed these fortifications in detail for many months and it is in the nature of the attacker to find a weak point. Then everyone in the thread knows by now that you have to think three-dimensionally too \u2013 dominant terrain.<\/p>\n

They seem to have built so that they can defend westward if they abandon the Dnipro, I also think that is clear \u2013 I feel more and more that there is substance behind the idea that there is a plan to abandon the Dnipro front if it gets tight, that area will be the first to be abandoned.<\/p>\n

The task force is the most dangerous and right now UA is depleting RU’s offensive reserves at a very rapid pace. It may sound a bit harsh but it is a “numbers game” and a matter of resources. Ukraine fights with a numerical disadvantage (because they can, not because they have to) and uses indirect fire with devastating effect so the Russian reserves are quickly decimated. Above all, they are decimated before Ukraine has committed its offensive reserve.<\/p>\n

Stuff like this always catches my interest \u2013 straight into the unit maps and I can only conclude that Defmon is well positioned and that Deepstate has a good front line marked \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ralee85\/status\/1666974433070977025?s=46&t=FBhzMAqe24jjxsoraIR1KQ<\/a><\/p>\n

What is significant is that the offensive reserve \u2013 Spetsnaz \u2013 is now fighting. If anyone thought this was “recon fights,” think again.<\/p>\n

Breaking through these lines at the southern front is not “half a year’s grinding,” just because RU never got through doesn’t mean UA will get stuck \u2013 UA conducted a dynamic defensive battle which RU cannot handle.<\/p>\n

We have written many times that this offensive reserve UA has trained and equipped for a long time is unstoppable.<\/p>\n

The breakthrough is under construction, consider that it is 56 minutes driving time from the front down to Azov and as soon as that wedge is driven in, the entire front west of it is in free fall \u2013 it will be Russian chaos at its worst.<\/p>\n

There is really no reason to comment on the “Leo2 and Bradley loss,” war is war and UA is very well on its way to winning now. What is of interest, however, is that RU used about a dozen kamikaze drones and got good results and that the minefield was more difficult than expected. Then RU managed to direct artillery very accurately \u2013 that there is RU capability left at the southern front is indisputable.<\/p>\n

Up in Bakhmut they do not have this capability, we know that for sure from a month of fighting and at Belgorod they don\u2019t have it either, we know that.<\/p>\n

That is something to take with you that RU has it at the southern front.<\/p>\n

The other thing to take with you is that when the defense at the southern front is broken, then the back of the Russian army in Ukraine is broken as they seem to have pooled their best there if Spetsnaz is the task force.<\/p>\n

It is twitter-rumored (highly unconfirmed and Rumint!) that the 10th army corps has moved forward. That would mean they intend to go for a breakthrough at the southern front because that is the offensive reserve they have allocated for this, the 9th and 10th army corps.<\/p>\n

Other brigades are locked at various fronts and at Bakhmut they also have a huge offensive reserve.<\/p>\n

As is well known, the Azov thrust is a chess move and once Azov is reached, the war is irreversibly lost for Putin.<\/p>\n

It should then be followed or coordinated with a crossing of the Dnipro in some form, infantry was part of the big campaign plan.<\/p>\n

There will also soon be a diversion at the northern front, presumably, there is no reason to calm down up there at all.<\/p>\n

Now it is like this \u2013 RU must defend the western part of the southern front because if there is a breakthrough there, there will be a breakthrough of the southern front.<\/p>\n

That everyone writes that there will soon be an attack at the eastern part of the southern front they cannot do anything about because they do not have enough reserves.<\/p>\n

Then RU knows very well what is going on.<\/p>\n

If they weaken any other front to strengthen there as well, then UA attacks there instead.<\/p>\n

We have come to the point where it is not enough for RU to be reactive, they do everything they can but it is not enough. The critical mass has long been in Ukraine’s favor.<\/p>\n

At Lobkove it is elite units attacking, reconnaissance battalion.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1667142148477669378?s=46&t=_p6n9ojKSWYxFTrh7oH15w<\/a><\/p>\n

We have often written that it is now or never for Ukraine. Russia could have managed a low-intensity war but Putin has probably pushed for these reckless offensives. Russian drone capability is increasing sharply, for example, and Iran and China probably ensure that they get that capacity.<\/p>\n

Then we read the other day that Taiwanese Acer exported computer components to Russia in large quantities.
\nThen you have all the smuggling routes.<\/p>\n

Now is the second low point in this war and Ukraine will exploit its advantage to the maximum.<\/p>\n

The West is now also resourcing for an autumn offensive if needed with the season for poor ground conditions as it is, so a killing blow must be delivered this summer.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ralee85\/status\/1667321094083158017?s=46&t=_p6n9ojKSWYxFTrh7oH15w<\/a><\/p>\n

It is very significant that RU currently has no capability to attack anywhere; they should have attacked from the northern front or northern Luhansk already if they still had that capability.<\/p>\n

The breakthrough is well east of Robotyne (no secret) and I believe they have cut through the front line. Just looking at the maps of fortifications makes it clear that they have cut through a good stretch in a few days, right?
\nAnd they have not yet deployed their offensive reserve from the 9th or 10th army corps.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ProfessorP5\/status\/1667279107573383172?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

This attack vector east of Melitopol is the one in the middle and in dominant terrain.
\nThe idea in the grand campaign plan was that it was easier to move mechanized forces covertly in that area than the attack vector west of Melitopol which goes over fields.<\/p>\n

It is absolutely not quiet west of Vuhledar even though I have had some difficulty figuring out why they attacked the bulge at the oblast border, but there is not much I understand either. If one were to guess, it might be a weak point, it looks that way on Nathan Ruser’s map.<\/p>\n

What we have not yet seen, however, is the last attack vector on the southern front, the one furthest east where the fortifications look substandard \u2013 it is completely quiet around that.<\/p>\n

However, one can guess that RU must have moved their offensive reserves westward now to prevent a breakthrough?<\/p>\n

I keep harping on night fighting and I guess that is a major contributing factor to UA’s breakthrough right now. They have that capability, we know, and we can guess that Russian night fighting capability is quite low.<\/p>\n

It will be a long summer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

A Portuguese and absolute prima donna with \u201cexquisite taste\u201d for luxury in life who couldn\u2019t do his job and sees everyone as personal servants to him and not as employees with tasks. In that, he saw the undersigned as a threat that needed to be countered, so it crashed quite promptly with a closed door and raised tone from Johan.<\/p>\n

You can\u2019t say I pushed anything but when he makes his mistakes I make sure they don\u2019t fall into oblivion and now he managed something big enough that HR back home in Rotterdam will raise their eyebrows. The ball is rolling but otherwise there is always the anonymous grievance mailbox as a last resort.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Thanks, they have sent in several brigades to Bakhmut now to cover for Wagner, the tensions between the army and Wagner seem to have been significant.<\/p>\n

Absolutely, Russian capability should not be underestimated and Ukraine will take heavy losses here. I try to keep a finger on what RU has committed to battle versus what they have left and what Ukraine has committed to battle and what they have left.<\/p>\n

So far it looks sound but anything can happen and does in war and I am guessing a lot.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Girkin reports that UA has 600-800 hard vehicles behind the southern front waiting their turn.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1667458245840064513?s=46&t=i8Gv2ATeJenmvV97GjbBGg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There is Rumint claiming that UA has advanced along virtually the entire southern front by 5-10km.<\/p>\n

There is also Rumint claiming that RU has committed 70% of its reserves now.<\/p>\n

Then there is Girkin-rumint that UA has prepared 600-800 hard vehicles for this offensive.<\/p>\n

What we know is that they have two army corps, 9 and 10, which are offensive reserves for this offensive and that the first week\u2019s fighting was with existing units along the front.<\/p>\n

All unconfirmed, all rumint and all twitter gods.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Easier to read Alunda\u2019s link above \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today Zelensky tells BBC that counter offensive actions have begun.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/bbcworld\/status\/1667542012617261058?s=46&t=i8Gv2ATeJenmvV97GjbBGg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The front line appears to be broken in the western part of the southern front.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1667559400666460162?s=46&t=i8Gv2ATeJenmvV97GjbBGg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Crimean canal is empty of water \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1667554986157387783?s=46&t=i8Gv2ATeJenmvV97GjbBGg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A column that left Enerhodar.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1667633724987527168?s=46&t=UfnW9PDf64W4M2dmQUMjgQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Apparently third on that, all as usual\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:42 \u2013 Johan No.1 A little retrospective \u2013 when the “Azov thrust” was coined sometime in spring 2022, there were 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