{"id":7957,"date":"2023-06-13T09:35:33","date_gmt":"2023-06-13T07:35:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-06-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:40:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:40:03","slug":"2023-06-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-06-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-06-13"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>We have been discussing for a while now that it is a &#8220;numbers game&#8221; and the man with the wall map David D is on the same track.<\/p>\n<p>About 4-5 days ago, there was a highly unconfirmed tip that RU had deployed 70% of available reserves on the southern front.<\/p>\n<p>We have good reason to believe that RU will abandon the Dnipro front in the near future to free up units, but then they must also defend the bottleneck down to Crimea and the NS defensive line through Melitopol.<\/p>\n<p>We have guessed that (the relative) elite units are being brought in behind the southern front as a task force and that the rest will defend against V.<\/p>\n<p>We have discussed that UA is advancing with one or a couple of companies per point across the entire area and that as soon as RU pushes forward their task forces to plug the gaps, they are decimated \u2013 remotely laid mines, suicide drones, wing grenades from drones, tungsten rain, guided ammunition, well-aimed conventional artillery ammunition, army aviation, air force, Storm Shadow and so on. They simply lure them out of their holes as some genius in the thread wrote.<\/p>\n<p>As soon as they are on their way forward to their attack area, it\u2019s a death run and a lot of death.<\/p>\n<p>I have forgotten about SOF in all the excitement but partisans and SOF have always been active behind the southern front, lawless land. They are presumably activated now and carry out fire ambushes and scout targets 24\/7.<\/p>\n<p>Up in Bakhmut, it is quite clear that UA fought with no more than 30% of available units and we guessed it was the same on the southern front \u2013 6-7 of 20 brigades \u2013 when we were tallying what was attacking.<\/p>\n<p>UA never attacks with a whole brigade and takes &#8220;Russian losses&#8221; (wiped out to 90%) but they deploy one battalion at a time and rotate, it seems.<\/p>\n<p>On top of that, there are 10 brigades at the Dnipro front standing by and bored for a few more days and &#8220;the other&#8221; army corps in the offensive reserve with around 10 brigades.<\/p>\n<p>Gregg, who probably guesses a bit here too, wrote that RU now has dedicated 90% of its offensive reserves behind the southern front and then the real kicker \u2013 they pull units from the rear lines to plug holes in the front lines.<\/p>\n<p>It is too early for Johan to dare to commit to this, but IF it is true, it means that RU has run out of offensive reserves behind the southern front and above all it means that all fortifications are not manned.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, UA has only just begun as 2\/3 of the offensive reserve remains.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of whether what Gregg writes is true or not, it is very clear to me that the Southern front is doomed \u2013 it\u2019s only a matter of time. We will soon see the Dnipro front abandoned as we are used to seeing, Russian retreat and UA moving in to secure terrain.<\/p>\n<p>The same will happen with the Southern front at some point, UA will get a breakthrough and all units west of the breakthrough point must move towards Crimea to avoid encirclement.<\/p>\n<p>We KNOW that there were not 150,000 in reserves back home in Russia because the Belgorod border was undefended and they had to pull units from the southern front, Avdiivka and northern Luhansk to try to fend off the pesky freedom fighters.<\/p>\n<p>At Bakhmut, they also had to reinforce with units from the southern front and northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n<p>When we have come this far and know that the Southern front is just a matter of time, Bakhmut is a matter of time until they fall back to the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line, and that we can expect a stronger raid up at the northern front at any time, there is an Easter egg left.<\/p>\n<p>Or there was another Easter egg, they have knocked out RU encrypted communication during the attacks on the southern front, if you remember we could expect some of these, Storm Shadow, F16 and Belgorod were the first, and now this.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1668320600673091586?s=46&amp;t=hSRLTfW5eHwFyVMGUMQ6AA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1668320600673091586?s=46&amp;t=hSRLTfW5eHwFyVMGUMQ6AA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Easter egg is that there is an offensive reserve of 10 brigades that will appear somewhere between Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka or the northern front. It is a deviation from the big campaign plan but I think it is quite clear that this offensive reserve exists and does not need to be deployed on the southern front.<\/p>\n<p>The front collapse bubble is simmering for the southern front and will probably come in two steps. At Bakhmut, there will be a retreat back to prepared defenses so even if it is announced as a big collapse, it is a retreat.<\/p>\n<p>If the fortification maps for northern Luhansk are correct and they have not built defenses in NS through Starobilsk, it would be sensational because then they break through in northern Luhansk when they break through the NS line through Svatove.<\/p>\n<p>If you remember the &#8220;revolving door,&#8221; they sweep down towards the city of Luhansk while territorial forces enter and secure the liberated border.<\/p>\n<p>Now that the Russian border was defended only by customs officers, it does not seem like RU can carry out counterattacks down from Russia at all.<\/p>\n<p>According to the big campaign plan, northern Luhansk was supposed to push on and it was probably intended to be the first to be abandoned but that was before we understood that the northern border was undefended and that there were no reserves inside Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Another Easter egg is that the West has literally flooded Ukraine with ammunition and materiel in the past month and now they are going out on all channels promising to replace the materiel that is lost.<\/p>\n<p>When the mechanized company was knocked out a week ago, the conclusion was that the personnel largely survived. The US has thousands of Bradleys in storage, there are almost 2,000 Leopards worldwide, then Abrams and so on.<\/p>\n<p>Since the crews have already been trained, only a new vehicle that is ready to drive is needed.<br \/>\nThe West can only replenish with 300 new Bradleys, 100 new Leo2s, more CV90s, more Marders and so on endlessly, an eternal machine basically, and as long as the personnel survive, the loss is basically zero.<\/p>\n<p>As said, it will be a long summer but on the southern front it is going faster than the best-case scenario and if I haven\u2019t completely confused things, there is an offensive strike on another front we haven\u2019t seen play out yet and there were no resources for that in the big campaign plan so UA has built even more offensive capacity than previous positive assessments.<\/p>\n<p>We all probably understand the damage long-range strikes do in depth now that the commander of the 35th army died along with a fairly large part of the staff if you judge by how the buildings looked after that strike.<\/p>\n<p>We also understand how existential this is for Russia if it is true that Gerasimov is leading from the front again, they probably had to drag him on board the plane because the last thing he wants is to be within HIMARS range again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>I don&#8217;t know if this has been posted before, but this is what it looked like before the units started moving towards their assembly points.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/herrynapit\/status\/1649518437591584768?s=46&amp;t=hSRLTfW5eHwFyVMGUMQ6AA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/herrynapit\/status\/1649518437591584768?s=46&amp;t=hSRLTfW5eHwFyVMGUMQ6AA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>\ud83d\udc4d Thanks for today&#8217;s (as always) positive essay!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>11:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n<p>Thank you \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>A small typo \u2013 no offensives with 10 brigades into Russia, I haven&#8217;t completely lost it (yet).<\/p>\n<p>It should say;<\/p>\n<p>The Easter egg is that there is an offensive reserve of 10 brigades that will appear somewhere between Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka, not Bakhmut or northern Luhansk. This is a deviation from the main campaign plan but I think it is quite clear that this offensive reserve exists and does not need to be deployed on the southern front.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Krok4Jon wrote yesterday that someone guessed they must have permission from higher command to use them.<\/p>\n<p>We have previously guessed that they are short on close-range air defense, so it\u2019s not unreasonable that this has been introduced to prevent reckless shootings?<\/p>\n<p>The result is when the attack starts and no one responds to calls to the command post which is already HIMARSed, the pile of close-range air defense remains untouched.<\/p>\n<p>True or not, but we have many videos of piles of unused close-range air defense in captured fortification systems.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>09:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Have you read this on Slava?<\/p>\n<p>Dmitry Medvedev believes that the time has come for the West to pay for undermining the Nord Stream<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in undermining the Nord Streams, then we have no, even moral, restrictions left to refrain from destroying the cable communications of our enemies, laid along the ocean floor.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10:51 \u2013 Johan No.1 We have been discussing for a while now that it is a &#8220;numbers game&#8221; and the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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