{"id":8007,"date":"2023-07-11T10:20:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T08:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-11-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:00:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:00:06","slug":"2023-07-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The final battle for Bakhmut has begun (could last a long time!) \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Ukraine has recaptured the heights at Berkhivka and Klischiivka and presumably has eyes on all approaches and can direct indirect fire if I have interpreted the maps correctly. LW was the first post yesterday in the blog, it should be added.<\/p>\n

There should be VDV in the buildings in Bakhmut according to Deepstatemap and now they have a limited lifespan.
\nUnclear what UA left behind in terms of supplies but otherwise they should be dependent on resupply every few weeks (at least)?<\/p>\n

Now the Russian team will carry out their bayonet charges screaming across the fields to try to break the encirclement and when they have tried that, the order will probably come \u2013 “fight to the last man in fortress Bakhmut”.<\/p>\n

Afterwards, the VDV will try to withdraw in a painful street fight where they will be heavily decimated.<\/p>\n

The big question is what it looks like in Bakhmutske, Prokovske, Klymove, Zaiotseve \u2013 is there prepared defense there or not?<\/p>\n

Additionally, Ukraine is coming from the north from Yakolivke – from behind – to smash into these settlements.<\/p>\n

It could very well become a breakthrough when VDV gives up the buildings in Bakhmut and they have to fall back to the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line \u2013 we shall see.<\/p>\n

In any case, we see results after less than two months of fighting and this is an area RU has prioritized to defend and fights with VDV in.<\/p>\n

A milestone as good as any showing the good results Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive achieves.<\/p>\n

Now we are probably waiting for a breakthrough either at the southern front or if they retreat from the Dnipro line next.<\/p>\n

Now it seems RU\u2019s diversionary attacks in northern Luhansk are starting (LW was first with that news too), the Nyland Brigade is being put to the test.<\/p>\n

Presumably, there will be many failed attacks and grilled BTGs but that particular area is the trickiest to defend \u2013 if they manage to drive down a wedge from the north along the Oskil River while pressing along the entire line it could get intense.<\/p>\n

However, it looks like UA has pooled in enough even for their own offensive now so it should not become threatening.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1678516961540440064?s=46&t=CQXbhgXrRyhRUrVrlFR8Ow<\/a><\/p>\n

The kicker up there is that it looks like RU has pooled quite a lot of VDV for this, their last offensive in this war, and when they are decimated, the last offensive reserve they had left of those +50,000 they had left since April 2023 is basically worn out, I imagine.<\/p>\n

All good news today then, many reasons to be positive-positive.<\/p>\n

This one is worth a repost, already posted by some brilliant legend in yesterday\u2019s thread this morning \u2013 brother Accentmannen https:\/\/youtu.be\/vMgm-8Nexlw<\/a><\/p>\n

What is interesting is that RU conducted a counterattack with 21 vehicles and 200 soldiers \u2013 a decimated battalion maybe?<\/p>\n

The counterattack came pretty much exactly when Ukraine had captured some fortification system, the size of the UA force is unknown, and followed Russian doctrine with violent counterattacks.<\/p>\n

RU thus did not drive into minefields and all they had to do was drive up to the fortification system, lay suppressive fire with the vehicles and storm with the infantry.<\/p>\n

The entire force was wiped out before they reached the fortifications.<\/p>\n

Ukraine had thus not prepared a defense but took the counterattack on the volley but managed to effectively direct indirect fire (and presumably drones and ATGM) with heavy losses to the Russian team before they even reached the defensive positions \u2013 things are going well for Putin now.<\/p>\n

Probably it will look like this at the counterattacks at Bakhmut to come and then up at the diversionary offensive up in northern Luhansk \u2013 UA\u2019s capability is so much higher now that it is a rout.<\/p>\n

We have heard about these failed counterattacks at the southern front but now we got to see one on film.<\/p>\n

For example, they conducted a counterattack with a composite force from 4-5 brigades including the 5th Tank Brigade which totally failed at the southern front. A Reuters reporter wrote that the approach routes were completely strewn with destroyed vehicles.<\/p>\n

Now all the offensive UA brigades have been distributed on the fronts and as we guessed before some have been sent up to northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

This means UA considers itself able to handle the southern front with less than 100% of the offensive reserve which is good.<\/p>\n

We have two clear attack vectors at the southern front \u2013 towards Melitopol and towards Berdyansk\/Mariupol which are fully resourced.<\/p>\n

Then there is absolutely offensive capacity at the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

Since UA has so far attacked at a numerical disadvantage and succeeded very well, one should not put too much emphasis on numbers \u2013 they have what they need at the Zaporizhzhia front and there were units left over for northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

We are talking about units from the offensive reserve so they are preparing forward there, had they decided on defense a few territorial brigades could have handled it with a task force from an army brigade behind.<\/p>\n

At the Bakhmut front it seems they have kept the units tied to the offensive earlier except for the armored brigades which are now down at the Zaporizhzhia front \u2013 about twenty brigades total at the Bakhmut front.<\/p>\n

We heard yesterday that the number of Russian dead was 50% higher due to poor medical care.<\/p>\n

From UA we know that 80% of the wounded are back in front-line service and what we have seen is an excellent medical chain.<\/p>\n

Since RU runs their brigades into the ground, pulls them out and pushes in newly mobilized, they are “reset”, all competence disappears.<\/p>\n

UA rotates one battalion at a time, has leave rotations and gets wounded back into units \u2013 they maintain competence, experience and so on.<\/p>\n

This means the Ukrainian army today is well-trained AND has enough practical combat experience to be able to fight according to NATO standards and outsmart the Russians.<\/p>\n

The Russian team has lost most of its experience and competence and even when they may have artillery and tanks, the units do not fight combined.<\/p>\n

Also, a tank is a liability until the crew has mastered the vehicle and fighting in platoon, company and battalion requires experienced leaders at all levels.<\/p>\n

We always talk about material shortages but here we have the real shortage in the circus ensemble \u2013 competent key personnel at all levels.<\/p>\n

It pays off to have a well-functioning medical chain and play tight poker for Ukraine because everything is a “numbers game” and maintaining competence and capability in the organization.<\/p>\n

Now the last units left from the low point in September 2022 are fighting, I have guessed +50,000 left before the spring offensive started May 4 and now VDV, marines, Spetsnaz and reconnaissance are fighting on the front lines, not as task forces.<\/p>\n

The last of the (relatively) competent reserve is being decimated very quickly here.<\/p>\n

Then Wagner disappeared and the figure 7,000 in the hard core has been flying around but they seemed to have been at least 15,000 total (according to Erik14 but seems reasonable).<\/p>\n

After that it is units that simply are not sufficiently trained and without experience that are supposed to try to conduct a defensive battle against the world\u2019s best infantry who have learned combined arms warfare.<\/p>\n

No matter how you twist and turn this, the Russians stand no chance.<\/p>\n

In the winter offensive, they sacrificed lives for time, and they are doing the same now, and it has an end date.<\/p>\n

Moreover, they are carrying out completely pointless attacks between north of Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka where they are taking Vuhledar-sized losses again.<\/p>\n

Between north of Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka, mostly LPR and DPR units remain now mixed with Kadyrovites and a few isolated army brigades. There is probably some chance for an opening there, if nothing else a wildcard with entire units surrendering the worse it goes?<\/p>\n

We have speculated whether RU would abandon the darkest Donbass and leave it to the 1st and 2nd Army corps, a quick fix and that would be very Russian. Right now it looks a bit like that as Russian units have been moved to the southern front, Belgorod or the Bakhmut front.<\/p>\n

That increases the probability of a wildcard exponentially \u2013 namely that the rebels get fed up.<\/p>\n

Then I have come to the conclusion that the Russians do not bomb civilian targets due to incompetence \u2013 when they want, they hit targets like the pizzeria they struck at the time they planned and the Antonovsky bridge.<\/p>\n

It is thus deliberate terror bombing instead of targeting military objectives because they are dysfunctional, but when it suits them they blame all sorts of things.<\/p>\n

They can get a hit within a couple of meters if they want.<\/p>\n

Then one can guess that GUR or SBU or whoever it is throughout the whole war have supplied RU with false targets.
\nThey have been running HIMARS into decoys since day one and if you remember the airbases, they laid out huge printed fabrics showing craters.<\/p>\n

It would therefore be quite reasonable if they managed to infiltrate the Russian spy chain, provide coordinates to completely insignificant targets and then confirm that some weapons depot with Leo2 tanks was destroyed.<\/p>\n

It will be a long summer but reaching fire control of Bakhmut is a sensation since RU had no intention whatsoever to give up without a fight.<\/p>\n

During the next 2.5 months we will see the Dnipro front and southern front (everything west of the Azov thrust) abandoned and that is the minimum outcome \u2013 then the war is irreversibly lost for RU for the simple reason that they cannot defend Crimea over time.<\/p>\n

The number of UA units will then also be so much higher in other attack vectors that it becomes unsustainable.<\/p>\n

All arrows are green and pointing in the right direction except for Putin where all arrows are red and pointing the wrong way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks for the positive situation report!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The situation is positive \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has the thread noticed that it is literally raining death behind the southern front in the form of Storm Shadow?<\/p>\n

Tokmak, Berdyansk and another place, several missiles at each.<\/p>\n

A good day for Ukraine this, less good for Russians in ammunition depots.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It never ends \u2013 now UA has recovered that mech company that was knocked out early in the offensive at the southern front.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/intelcrab\/status\/1678769449476956161?s=46&t=L89zGwqw3MllvohGh6Zv4g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Getting used to them going hard on the pre-battle suppression these days, but you\u2019re right that it\u2019s been one of the more intense days (and it\u2019s not over yet).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

As one commented, the Russians even show the videos upside down just to be able to run them with a new angle..<\/p>\n

Tiring, but still a good sign, when they have nothing more to come with.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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