{"id":8013,"date":"2023-07-13T10:56:32","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T08:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:01:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:01:49","slug":"2023-07-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-13"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>There seems to be evidence that Wagner is being disarmed \u2013 this is a major loss for Russia. Moving footage from some hero in the thread yesterday seems legit, it&#8217;s making the rounds on Russian social media.<\/p>\n<p>The hard core of 7,000 was generally considered to have remained, and it appeared to be at least 15,000 in total.<br \/>\nConsidering how well they fought compared to the Russian army, this should be considered a fairly big positive for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Compared to the VDV, that means 5 full regiments have been removed.<br \/>\nThen Wagner probably had weight on combat units and significantly fewer support functions, just a guess.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Acontece_ndo\/status\/1679162192489242625\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Acontece_ndo\/status\/1679162192489242625<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then there were reports that the two VDV regiments in the built-up area in Bakhmut and one in Klischiivka are starting to have existential problems \u2013 at least the unit in Klischiivka began developing acute depression.<br \/>\nIt is the Russians&#8217; elite VDV fighting against the 3rd and 5th assault brigades and some mech brigades and getting beaten.<\/p>\n<p>VDV was certainly understrength from the start, so I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if a regiment today is heavily understrength. Then you have to remember that a VDV regiment of 3,000 when at full strength is not the number in combat units; they have 2-3 combat battalions, support units, and then some reconnaissance company.<\/p>\n<p>As usual, it is the tip that takes the hit and you end up with support functions but no combat units in the end, and in the Russian team, reverse Darwinism prevails \u2013 the tip takes proportionally the most damage and support functions survive.<\/p>\n<p>Then we had the 58 CAA which is also starting to be short on units to the point that the commander chose to try to put pressure on his superiors who simply fired him and sent him as a company commander somewhere.<\/p>\n<p>If one is to guess, a Russian army general stays silent as long as he can, and if he exposes himself, it is not out of concern for his soldiers but because it is a crisis situation and he can no longer keep a lid on it.<\/p>\n<p>The capable units that were pulled from the Dnieper front, VDV, Spetsnaz, and naval infantry are probably all fighting now in trenches up at the southern front instead of being an offensive reserve striking against breakthroughs.<\/p>\n<p>It is notable that all RU counterattacks at Bakhmut and the southern front so far have been repelled. This usually means BTGs are wiped out when attacks fail in the way we saw in a film the other day.<\/p>\n<p>My guess is that RU is running out of reserves and units capable of fighting at Bakhmut and the southern front. At the Dnieper front, UA is not really pressing, but there are second-class RU units left there that are performing poorly.<\/p>\n<p>But instead of reinforcing these two fronts, they attack with DPR and LPR somewhat sporadically between north of Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka, and then they have some VDV in reserve up in northern Luhansk where they are now trying to attack as a diversion. It also seems that up in northern Luhansk the ambition level is quite high \u2013 artillery, VDV, and numbers.<\/p>\n<p>That signals to me that RU is struggling with the overall picture and that the chain of command is slow. The diversionary counterattacks should have come early in June, and now that they are running out of reserves, they should not come at all \u2013 they should be strengthening the southern front and Bakhmut instead.<\/p>\n<p>Since UA has succeeded excellently in defense over 1.5 years, it is naturally reasonable that all these attempts also fail.<\/p>\n<p>That UA still has large offensive reserves is crystal clear \u2013 if the 3rd Assault brigade can fight for two months without being exhausted, they are doing very well and have a lot of offensive capacity left at Bakhmut,<\/p>\n<p>They have also assessed that they can transfer offensive capacity to northern Luhansk, which means they considered they had enough at the southern front.<\/p>\n<p>That Ukraine has the initiative and is also depleting artillery and support functions is quite clear.<\/p>\n<p>That UA takes fewer losses as the attacking party than the defender also seems to be true considering all the trench clearances we get to see.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine will not run out of gas before the weather stops it, and the only worrying thing is that they started too late.<\/p>\n<p>What surprises me is that they do not go into Russia more, it pulled units from the fronts and was very politically difficult for Putin, there are definitely units with hard bites up at the northern front \u2013 makes me suspect that something has been communicated from the West about that.<\/p>\n<p>We have had completely unverifiable information that the West was against drone attacks on the anniversary and May 9, that the West asked UA to stay away when the revolution started and so on. True or not, we will have to wait a long time to find out, but that they do not attack into Russia when it went so well indicates that some communication has taken place.<\/p>\n<p>I think that is unfortunate.<\/p>\n<p>I also think it is unfortunate that some Western representatives went out saying that Ukraine should stop being so whiny and constantly demanding more after the NATO meeting \u2013 strategic communication at its worst.<\/p>\n<p>I sensed a certain nervousness in Ukraine where they tried to blow up the results of the meeting to more than it was and have probably seen 3-4 videos of representatives criticizing Ukrainian actions.<\/p>\n<p>After 1.5 years, we should not see or hear such things, and the Ukraine war is only an internal UA power grab away from becoming messy and not going well. Anyone who has done group work at school knows how difficult it is, and Ukraine&#8217;s many different interests pull in the same direction as long as they are riding the wave.<\/p>\n<p>If the West comes with some kind of know-better attitude and does not provide the support needed and imposes a lot of unnecessary demands that we have heard rumors about so far \u2013 not least that weapons cannot be used on Russian territory, it complicates things for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Bulgaria did it, Western representatives did it after the NATO meeting, but Eastern Europe was not satisfied with the result, so Poland took a microphone and sorted out what they thought on the matter.<\/p>\n<p>The West is gambling that Ukraine will succeed, but what if it becomes overwhelming and the country is sucked into the Russian sphere with 20 million refugees in the EU supporting themselves as criminals.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, one must say that Sweden has contributed with the best we had, CV90 with Barracuda and Archer, and if I were to guess, there is a thought behind the Gripen training.<\/p>\n<p>There are countries in Eastern Europe that have dramatically reduced their defense capability to be able to send more worn-out weapons to Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>It is actually quite simple \u2013 Ukraine is carrying the whole load, and if they reach a point where they can no longer cope, the situation for the free West will deteriorate significantly.<\/p>\n<p>Then the rogue states have it in black and white that violence pays off and that NATO failed to function as intended. Either this is stamped out now or they will smell the morning air.<\/p>\n<p>It is actually a strange situation \u2013 at the same time as Ukraine has the initiative on all fronts and we are finally starting to see war-deciding moves, the West is either faltering or at least having difficulty keeping up appearances.<\/p>\n<p>That we got a G7 statement of support and no territorial concessions was, however, very good.<\/p>\n<p>It is NOW that one should go all in, everyone can be absolutely sure that Russia is done for.<\/p>\n<p>A Ukraine in NATO would be an enormous capability boost for NATO, not the other way around?<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine will never ask NATO for Article 5; they will settle this war first and then probably become NATO&#8217;s most valuable member after the major Western countries.<\/p>\n<p>The same goes for the EU, we have a whole bunch of somewhat unsavory countries that only exploit the EU for their own gain \u2013 when did Portugal and Spain contribute something last, they even received COVID support from the EU and then Spain introduced a four-day workweek as thanks.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine will naturally do a Poland, and in the next 10 years Ukrainian security guards and construction workers will probably be popular, and over time it will be like with the Poles, that shop owners in the UK prefer to hire a Ukrainian rather than a lazy Brit.<\/p>\n<p>What Ukraine will then contribute is enormous agriculture, over time surplus electricity, heavy industry, and so on.<br \/>\nIt is a powerhouse that will help the EU not just see the union as a social welfare benefit.<\/p>\n<p>Considering that Eastern Europe is prepared to donate all the equipment in their defense forces, they are obviously not afraid of a future Ukrainian threat.<\/p>\n<p>The Russian threat is reasonably reduced for at least 10 years?<\/p>\n<p>China is in Asia.<\/p>\n<p>So why can&#8217;t countries in the EU supply Ukraine with much more weapons?<br \/>\nDoes Portugal need its deployed Leo2s?<br \/>\nBelgium, the Netherlands, France, the UK, and so on?<\/p>\n<p>And the air force, just like with armored vehicles, people thought it would show up for the spring offensive and then the West drags through everything as usual.<\/p>\n<p>To summarize \u2013 Ukraine is delivering beyond expectations but the support could be much greater and the strategic communication considerably more straightforward.<\/p>\n<p>When history is written, we will learn what kind of genocide this has been and how children, women, and the elderly have been tortured and murdered. That never changes, but what should have been done was to shorten the war as much as possible by giving Ukraine what they needed to win without a lot of conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Vilnius left some negative resonance but enough countries are doing enough anyway for this to reach the goal, and as said, the G7 managed to agree on a very good statement.<\/p>\n<p>Still believe that JEF might become the model for the EU&#8217;s eastern bulwark against the barbarians.<\/p>\n<p>It will be a long summer, on the battlefield everything is going in the right direction, one can only note \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>+1<br \/>\nIt almost has to be that Ukraine has been forbidden to cross the border and also to assist the Russian rebels with weapons. They did come out with some statement about entering Russia again but then nothing happened. Sad, because I think it is effective on several levels..<\/p>\n<p>It is also sad that they are slow with aircraft. I guess the Russians are soon at a similar low point as about a year ago. Ukraine has admittedly gotten what they should have gotten then but now Russia has dug in and during the past year many have been injured and lost their lives, both soldiers and civilians.<\/p>\n<p>If they do not manage to achieve at least major successes, it is not Ukraine&#8217;s fault but ours for not giving them enough.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>22:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Hello thread \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/itsartoir\/status\/1679568387360292867?s=46&amp;t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/itsartoir\/status\/1679568387360292867?s=46&amp;t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1 There seems to be evidence that Wagner is being disarmed \u2013 this is a major loss [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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