{"id":8017,"date":"2023-07-15T10:26:20","date_gmt":"2023-07-15T08:26:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-15-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:02:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:02:26","slug":"2023-07-15-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-15-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-15"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Seems like summer vacation has kicked in on the thread, which is good \u2013 even a Ukrainian supporter needs to rest sometimes \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>Here it\u2019s everyday life and slower than ever, lots of high-ranking officers visiting and there\u2019s probably nothing worse than having dinner with senior officers for a whole week, on Monday the calm will settle again. When Matsextrude struggles on despite a bad cold, you have to keep up appearances despite forced oxfillet dinners.<\/p>\n<p>A bit of waiting times in the war.<\/p>\n<p>A few days ago we discussed that UA is attacking east of Soledar near Yakolivka. According to Accentmannen\u2019s latest, it is on a dominant height and must be taken.<\/p>\n<p>The quick-footed can then see that you will hit right into the \u201cback\u201d of the settlements Bakhmutske, Pokhrovske and Klynove.<\/p>\n<p>These three communities are presumably the next defense when the buildings in Bakhmut are abandoned and if you can come from behind, they become untenable quite quickly and it becomes the Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasna line for a tired and demoralized Russian.<\/p>\n<p>A reflection on UA\u2019s tactic to wear down the Russian numbers, the \u201cnumber game\u201d we have written about for a while and many including the blog have reasoned about this already, but being fifth on the ball is not bad.<\/p>\n<p>There are simply probably too many mines and fortifications for one to succeed in taking terrain by breakthrough. In the videos we see that at every forested area or suitable terrain they have built a defense system and sent a platoon, company or battalion depending on size. Then they have mined these and although they get too little maintenance, they manage to hold out in combat for about a week.<\/p>\n<p>If you try to break through this defense with violent attacks, you keep running into the next and the next and it never ends. You would probably have lowered your own capability before RU ran out, there would have been a pause in fighting and then bad road conditions and RU would have strengthened again over time.<\/p>\n<p>Since defense systems are worthless if not manned by troops, does Ukraine then focus on decimating the Russian army instead of taking terrain as LW writes?<\/p>\n<p>It has been much discussed in the thread, among other things that they pull out the task forces and artillery with relatively small attacks and then the drones come forward and identify targets for the artillery.<\/p>\n<p>They inflict heavy losses on RU against small own losses but sacrifice time.<\/p>\n<p>Eventually we come to the point where the Russian defense systems are either undefended or defended by cooks and depot workers.<\/p>\n<p>The other thing we discussed is that if you attack at two points, RU can concentrate everything there but now the Russians have an anthill of infantry moving forward at 30 contact points so they cannot concentrate forces \u2013 also smart.<\/p>\n<p>The only problem is time as mentioned and they started late but the remaining 2.5 months should be an escalation from today and likely a war-deciding battle will be delivered before the ground\u2019s bearing capacity deteriorates.<\/p>\n<p>Then we know from before that up in northern Luhansk there are more sandy soils that do not affect bearing capacity in the same way and lots of stealth terrain better suited for infantry than heavy vehicles.<\/p>\n<p>I still think it\u2019s very well fought, wizard level, and that UA achieves the results they expect.<\/p>\n<p>So far they are unstoppable and Russian capability is sharply declining \u2013 that we now see significantly less RU indirect fire on the southern front is a milestone.<\/p>\n<p>We must also not underestimate that high-ranking officers are being fired after the Wagner revolution and that brigade and army commanders are being fired at the fronts, it\u2019s not just Popov, the brigade commander for 83 VDV was also gone just recently.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding RU reserves, we now know that there are none left in Belarus and that Wagner going there is irrelevant \u2013 they have probably sent some there for crowd control is my guess?<\/p>\n<p>Putin et.al kill two birds with one stone, they avoid revolution and make the popular uprising in Belarus more difficult.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1679809600994922497?s=46&amp;t=7asGs81OBobSpwCY3gP62w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1679809600994922497?s=46&amp;t=7asGs81OBobSpwCY3gP62w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>David D who seems to have his own war against pro-Russian trolls which is going so-so is of the opinion that UA can ramp up the Dnipro front significantly. According to the big campaign plan, they would run over infantry that went on defense to project a threat against the southern front so they were forced to pull reserves from there to meet them, and the units would be knocked out when they moved towards the Dnipro on the highway just like at the legendary Davydiv Brid.<\/p>\n<p>Now RU has preempted all this by already pulling away all offensive reserves from the Dnipro front and leaving behind second-rate troops and then it seems natural that UA exploits this?<\/p>\n<p>The area around Antonovsky is protected and suitable for a bridgehead and RU has already prepared defense in a north-south direction through Melitopol and down at the land tongue towards Crimea.<\/p>\n<p>If UA presses here, they can certainly force a retreat to these positions.<\/p>\n<p>The other day we heard that Russian artillery has dropped sharply on the southern front and here is another pro-Russian blogger lamenting maintenance problems.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1680121067623399427?s=46&amp;t=8uSvkYefbRPeCVqnrQBhwQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1680121067623399427?s=46&amp;t=8uSvkYefbRPeCVqnrQBhwQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then a reflection that has been discussed before \u2013 RU now has such extensive fortifications that they have no chance to man all with sufficient numbers.<\/p>\n<p>What they probably do on the southern front is that the units exhausted at the 3rd defense line are rotated back to the first and they have had to send the defense into the front line, which should be the best, down to the third line.<\/p>\n<p>Then it even seems to have gone so far that they have had to send the offensive reserve into the third line.<\/p>\n<p>Now they have chosen this strategy probably to project a hard-to-penetrate defense early and demoralize if not Ukraine then at least the West because Russian psyops are on steroids right now. Talking the West down will not work (this time) and above all this spring offensive is already resourced.<\/p>\n<p>The result, as the quick-footed understand, is that the units defending the front line are second-rate troops rotated out of combat already and given some months\u2019 rest when UA arrives there \u2013 nerves on edge and exhausted and possibly also ammunition shortage.<\/p>\n<p>Then there is no offensive reserve left if UA manages a breakthrough through the front line because that has already been used up.<\/p>\n<p>I scan every day for info about reinforcements to the southern front but find nothing.<\/p>\n<p>In the long run, this should mean that when UA breaks through the front line and broadens the breakthrough enough, there is very little Russian defense behind \u2013 at least what I think.<\/p>\n<p>UA is doing the heavy lifting right now thus.<\/p>\n<p>One wants this war to end every day and at least I have felt consistently that the West has not stood unreservedly on Ukraine\u2019s side and that we have been somewhat superior. Right now it\u2019s quite okay but the weathercock can turn lightning fast so it was nice to see that Bulgaria has chosen to open its stockpiles. There is probably a lot of Eastern equipment and ammunition they can assist with.<\/p>\n<p>I am disappointed that (as I now only guess) the West communicated that the Belgorod raids were undesirable because they had excellent results.<\/p>\n<p>Somewhere here we demand that Ukraine must fight fairly, but Russia gets away with anything.<\/p>\n<p>The war has now been going on long enough that this is a national trauma, and generations will live with painful memories and PTSD. Considering all the abuses, the question is whether the civilian population or the military will suffer the most after this. The level of torture against civilians has been absolutely extreme, and there are many parents who have to live with the memory of being forced to watch their small children tortured to death, incomprehensible.<\/p>\n<p>There is another factor in all this, and that is the country Ukraine; they have invested 100% for 1.5 years now and have a very clear goal. If they fall short, there will be a blame game within the country, and it will create an opportunity for Russian subversive activities again, and there is a risk of going back in time. There are many countries in Eastern Europe that are only one successful Russian psyops away from allying with Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Now that risk has dropped dramatically, but it was absolutely RU&#8217;s plan at the start of the war to turn Moldova, Transnistria, ally with Serbia and Hungary, and over time work away pro-Western governments in Bulgaria and Romania.<br \/>\nThe Baltic states were also in the risk zone, and good luck with Article 5 in NATO when a country&#8217;s government votes for Russian troops in the country and has a majority for it.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is that the pro-Russian candidate has a trump card, the pro-Western candidate dies in a car accident or from the aftermath of a robbery. The free West does not work that way, but that is A1 for the Russian side.<\/p>\n<p>Enough about that, the summer is long and UA is well on its way towards larger movements on the battlefields at the southern front and the Bakhmut front.<\/p>\n<p>Up in northern Luhansk, at least I don&#8217;t hear anything about Russian successes, and they have launched ambitious diversionary attacks \u2013 they should then go just as usual, terribly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:06 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>\ud83d\udc4d Those damn mines have become a bigger problem than one could have thought. Now that the Russians cannot fertilize with artillery shells as before, the mines are probably the biggest problem. Luckily, they are taking it slow and carefully.<\/p>\n<p>The summer is long, but sooner or later it will be resolved!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>They had about 150,000, 1,500 tanks, and 2,500 IFVs before the winter offensive that never got off the ground, so almost a halving \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>The guess was that UA took a page from Finland&#8217;s Winter War and made life difficult for them with (all of the West&#8217;s) SOF.<\/p>\n<p>The northern front (Belgorod) or northern Luhansk are the two places RU can try to carry out diversionary counterattacks, and we have been waiting for them for a long time.<\/p>\n<p>Now it is actually too late, and they should reinforce the southern front, but probably the command is now so poor that they will carry out this counteroffensive (yep, now it is the Russians who have to do a counteroffensive&#8230;).<\/p>\n<p>UA has about 20 brigades in the area, several with a strong bite and 4 artillery brigades. This does not include the units at Bakhmut or those at the northern front.<\/p>\n<p>A bit hard to defend, yes, but RU will not get far against that defense, though it will get messy.<\/p>\n<p>I also want to add that since they never got out of the starting blocks for the winter offensive, these units are probably the last &#8220;reserve&#8221; RU has left now that the southern front is being decimated. There are some VDV up there as well that have been held back.<\/p>\n<p>Now it is summer, so presumably they will get out of the starting blocks at least, but we don&#8217;t hear about any major successes, and we would have heard that directly from the Russian side.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>12:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n<p>\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10:50 \u2013 Johan No.1 Seems like summer vacation has kicked in on the thread, which is good \u2013 even a 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