{"id":8025,"date":"2023-07-18T10:11:59","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T08:11:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-18-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:03:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:03:35","slug":"2023-07-18-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-18-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Getting a bit stuck in the broader brushstrokes here, feels like I\u2019ve had a few days like this.<\/p>\n

I think there is a conflict of interest \u2013 UA preferably wants to see Russia turn inward to both shorten the war and also free Belarus and tie UA-friendly oblasts to itself, while the West wants to proceed cautiously and try to end this so that everything returns to something like pre-2014.<\/p>\n

What UA wants is probably what must happen because RU today is so far gone in its diagnosis that they will immediately prepare to lash out at some poor soul again, everywhere is probably at risk.<\/p>\n

Like the schoolyard bully they are, they will of course be careful not to jump on Ukraine which can now defend itself, but there are one or two other countries around them, and then they have plans to increase their presence in Africa together with China and colonize that continent in our time.<\/p>\n

Wagner\u2019s ravages in CAR are even worse than in Ukraine because it happens with the government\u2019s full knowledge, a blank check to do whatever they want, and having seen how Wagner behaved in Ukraine, we can probably guess what they have done to women and children in CAR, right? There are many civilians in many countries who would benefit if Russia turned inward. I think it is inevitable and the West really shouldn\u2019t try to slow this down as they are doing now. But they don\u2019t need to actively contribute either, which they don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The second worst scenario after one where UA has to cede territory for peace is that Russia retreats to the 1991 borders but that the leadership\u2019s survival depends on cultivating the stab-in-the-back legend, rearming the country and then jumping on some other poor country and continuing their subversive activities in the West.<\/p>\n

At the start of this war, I showed my total ignorance with two statements \u2013 the first was that a good outcome would be if Russia only took the terrain up to the Dnipro and then there was peace, and the second was that I thought one should be careful to avoid a stab-in-the-back legend. It\u2019s lucky Ukraine is street-smart and doesn\u2019t have representatives like me \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

A new RU leadership that can put the war behind them and start fresh would be preferable, and best of all would be if the country Russia is \u201cdecolonized\u201d naturally and divided into its natural regions, whatever they are. With weak central control, different republics, provinces, and oblasts will take the opportunity, and then we know who wants to belong to Russia and in what way, more autonomous or as today?<\/p>\n

The level of violence in Ukraine is enormous, for example, we know they can hit a pizzeria or the Antonovsky bridge if they want and still a large share of 5,000 missiles have been fired at civilian targets \u2013 it can only be intentional.<\/p>\n

Then Khakovka and future Enerhodar were not something done in panic to protect their retreat \u2013 they deliberately destroy infrastructure and everything of value before pulling back.<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass will get the same treatment and probably also Crimea.<\/p>\n

The kicker is that Russia has been doing this since the 1700s, they have effectively managed to cultivate a myth about themselves as the proud invincible Red Army and some kind of free pass because they were communists so they have avoided decolonizing themselves as they have never been criticized for it.<\/p>\n

Their wars have always been chaotic and as brutal as possible and within the country there are constant power struggles.<\/p>\n

China and Russia absolutely have the ambition to go back a few hundred years in the world as they are now becoming more and more repressive and also trying to colonize Africa. A multipolar world seems to be just another word for them to do as they please and be able to abuse weaker neighbors.<\/p>\n

The free West is not perfect but it is better than living under China or Russia every day of the week, ask the Uighurs for example. Have had quite a lot to do with Chinese over the years and the second you are under them (or they think you are) you are treated like a disposable commodity.<\/p>\n

A country we must not forget is Moldova which Russia has actually invaded without the EU raising an eyebrow. The Russian team must get out of Transnistria with or without help.<\/p>\n

Now the Russian team is slowly getting out of the starting blocks up in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

What is happening is that the Russian team has finally started counterattacks to relieve fronts under pressure.
\nBelow is my take on what is happening \u2013<\/p>\n

Since UA managed to retake all the heights around Bakhmut, the Russian counterattacks are doomed from the start and they just drain reserves faster. Bakhmut will be abandoned and no counterattacks in the world can change that.<\/p>\n

Is anything happening at the Avdiivka front or have I mixed up areas? There UA has no real ambition to advance but has had units in defense that have carried out local offensives for consolidation.
\nI have the impression this was there or is it somewhere else?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1681162939686846464?s=46&t=JgPmhhineMZyIKN2LRK0_w<\/a><\/p>\n

Looking at the numbers in northern Luhansk, RU has 30-40% fewer than they had before the winter offensive with the information we have received. Either they have been relocated or decimated by SOF.<\/p>\n

For RU it is very attractive to take the terrain up to the Oskil river and secure the entire northern flank. That they never tried in winter is this war\u2019s big mystery. We wrote that RU on the offensive is a threat and a passive RU is a victim in a pit for SOF and their night fighting capability.<\/p>\n

If I have interpreted it correctly, there are some VDV regiments in reserve up there and since they never got out of the starting blocks in winter, the battle group up there is probably in decent shape?<\/p>\n

UA has about 20 brigades, a lot of artillery and a couple of offensive brigades in the area \u2013 they are by no means unprepared.<\/p>\n

The purely positive thing is that RU has not sent half of its reserves to the southern front.<\/p>\n

In winter UA was a thin picket line in defense, now they have enough.<\/p>\n

The area has several natural obstacles, now it is summer and watercourses count again. South of Troitske straight north is the Zerebets river. Of course, they have fortified this line as best as possible.<\/p>\n

The terrain up to around Kupiansk is farmland with large fields of fire and then some forest area or settlements. Not only along the Zerebets river but actually all the way to the Oskil river.<\/p>\n

So first everyone sits and thinks UA will never be able to succeed in the south and then in the next breath everyone is worried about a Russian offensive in northern Luhansk. RU has exactly the same problems to overcome as Ukraine has on the southern front and so far they have been terrible at problem-solving.<\/p>\n

If they against all odds break through the Zerebets line, the Oskil line remains.<\/p>\n

Along the Oskil River, there is forest and in front of it are farmlands with enormous shooting ranges.<\/p>\n

The Russian team is positioned quite a distance from Kupiansk and they are still trying to secure their flank in order to advance towards the city of Kupiansk.<\/p>\n

It is excellent defensive terrain, and UA could conduct a similar delaying battle in that area as in Bakhmut, square meter after grilled BTG endlessly.<\/p>\n

At the northern front, RU had nothing at all, as it turned out, and it is extremely unfortunate that the Belgorod raids have stopped, but if RU were to consider going on the offensive, the rivers are natural obstacles they cannot cross.
\nWe discussed this before the Kupiansk sprint that UA only needed to defend northwards by taking a defensive position along the Velykuly Burluk River (?).<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that UA can manage northern Luhansk with what they have in northern Luhansk and that it will not drain units from the southern front or the Bakhmut front.<\/p>\n

Over to DavidD to see if he agrees \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1680982025895829504?s=46&t=34b-LB_hcC4RNYM-J477nA<\/a>
\n(Seems so?)<\/p>\n

If you look at the southern front and the Dnipro front, SOF are now actively fighting there, I flew past a tweet saying they shouldn\u2019t be used to clear trenches, I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s true, but it indicates the highest level of ambition from Ukraine \u2013 they have set their sights on reaching Azov this summer and are ambitious.<\/p>\n

Another brigade commander has fallen.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/killedinukraine\/status\/1681185807980175363?s=46&t=JgPmhhineMZyIKN2LRK0_w<\/a><\/p>\n

More commanders have been dismissed.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1681182666501046272?s=46&t=JgPmhhineMZyIKN2LRK0_w<\/a><\/p>\n

According to ISW, which we have always valued highly, dissatisfaction is spreading within the Russian army and all the dismissed senior officers are a pretty clear signal that this is the case.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1680963195303763968?s=46&t=34b-LB_hcC4RNYM-J477nA<\/a><\/p>\n

The rumor mill is boiling as usual and with all the available information we have, the situation at the southern front looks very bad for the Russian team. That they had to pull the offensive reserve from the Dnipro was a weakness, that they are firing many senior officers is a weakness, that all their counterattacks have totally failed is a weakness.<\/p>\n

Here there are every opportunity for a breakthrough where all units west of the breakthrough point can retreat down to Crimea.<\/p>\n

Ukraine continues to grind on with the Normandy tactic and has most of its offensive reserve unused.<\/p>\n

So far UA has not run out of ammunition and according to the British, RU has introduced rationing on artillery now at the southern front.<\/p>\n

The Azov thrust is delivered before the ground bearing capacity makes it impossible is still the assessment.<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, it looks even worse for the Russians, UA is back in its old defense and RU will eventually have to abandon the built-up area in Bakhmut. If you look at the unit maps, it is the third time (maybe fourth) that new units have appeared so RU continuously rotates out tired brigades.<\/p>\n

This is absolutely a “numbers game” right now and the one who holds out the longest wins. We found out the other day that all Russian units have left Belarus (except Wagner) and we know from the Belgorod raids that there are no or were no available units in Russia.<\/p>\n

We also know that RU fights offensively with T54-55 and T62 and that they defend with old PV guns.<\/p>\n

We will see what equipment they have in northern Luhansk, probably videos soon of knocked-out vehicles.<\/p>\n

The only negative I can see is that the offensive started too late but there is also a chance that the summer weather will last longer into autumn and that the ground bearing capacity will be extended, who knows. In northern Luhansk, the soils are sandy and the ground bears longer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

10:53, it seems RU knew where Bradley was and sent forward two T72s simultaneously.<\/p>\n

Now we don\u2019t have more history than that but this sounds like a competent crew vs. an inexperienced crew actually.<\/p>\n

TOW takes X seconds to reach the target and if you remember the film from the T-cross, UA shot the vehicle with a mine in the ground to create a cloud that caused the missile to miss.<\/p>\n

You can also drive into cover.<\/p>\n

This while they were two tanks with direct fire and Bradley can probably shoot one TOW at a time I guess since the gunner has to track the target until hit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the situation report!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:58 \u2013 Johan No.1 Getting a bit stuck in the broader brushstrokes here, feels like I\u2019ve had a few days 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