{"id":8029,"date":"2023-07-20T11:00:34","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T09:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:04:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:04:05","slug":"2023-07-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Very good amplifier by the EU to promise 5 billion EUR annually in ammunition to UA to top up the stocks.<\/p>\n

Quite disappointed that the Belgorod raids and drone swarms towards Moscow have stalled \u2013 they were difficult for Putin et al. to handle.<\/p>\n

Both the southern front and the Bakhmut front are, however, “ripe” to fall and this will send shockwaves through Russia.<\/p>\n

Above all, the southern front will become a huge area that is liberated and then the Crimean Russians will be stuck \u2013 completely unmanageable politically.<\/p>\n

Do you remember how the BRIICS meeting in South Africa was supposed to go when we predicted it a few months ago, Putin is on Zoom link and when it’s time for the after work “Xi Jinping ‘forgets’ himself and puts the phone on the bar counter camera down and no one hears Putin’s weak calls for attention \u2013 ‘hi guys what you drinking’, ‘hi guys, any girls there’, ‘guuuys\u2026!<\/p>\n

After half an hour, the world’s loneliest man drags himself to the king-size bed in the bunker in Altai, sucks on a spoonful of caviar and goes to bed at 8 wondering if Xi and the others had fun without him \u2013 it seemed so.
\nNow it turned out exactly like that \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

There are some indications that Dengamle may have had a hand in the game around Putin’s Zoom meeting.<\/p>\n

According to persistent rumors, Dengamle is in Angola with the UNITA guerrilla and has prepared a kidnapping of Putin at his hotel in South Africa. One of his big problems, besides projecting his weaknesses onto me, is that he becomes quite talkative (loose-lipped \u2013 as he projected onto me) when offered something stronger than port wine so he managed to out the whole plan last Saturday when he was sitting at Pizzeria Rialto in central Luanda and the Russian embassy had the table next to him.<\/p>\n

Putin played it safe and stays home with the caviar spoon.<\/p>\n

As punishment, Dengamle has now been tasked by Budanov to carry out the same kidnapping but from Putin’s bunker in Altai and with the same UNITA rebels so it may take a while before we see him in the thread again. <\/p>\n

He hasn’t succeeded in such an operation since he got Rudolf Hess interested in flight school to impress a planted girlfriend who refused anything other than cinema before Hess could show off a flight certificate. Now, the plan was actually for the plane to crash but Dengamle had a hard night out in some beer hall and overslept so the fuel hose was never cut and the rest is history. <\/p>\n

The sluggishness is enormous in Russia but overall Putin should now be so weakened that another faction can make its move gradually.<\/p>\n

Prigozin would have come to Moscow if they had continued, there was nothing between them and the capital and everyone could see that. Everyone could also see that Putin immediately fled to St Petersburg.<\/p>\n

One actually goes completely insane over what Russia gets away with here, beyond everything they have done so far the world yawns when they blow up Khakovka, when they burn all the grain and eventually when they blow up Enerhodar.
\nWhat escalation is the West afraid of here?<\/p>\n

China has rolled over on its back and Russia has already played all its cards.<\/p>\n

If you have listened to Putin et al., they have come with lots of threats in recent weeks that no one takes seriously anymore (except Putin).<\/p>\n

If you want to soft start, then the UK can send the remaining 900 Storm Shadow missiles and then sink the entire Black Sea fleet as punishment during a lively weekend?<\/p>\n

Then down with the Patriot batteries and deliveries can resume.<\/p>\n

I know the real world doesn’t work like that \u2013 figure it out yourself and go back to video games in the basement room.<\/p>\n

If we think about which Russian front sections participated in the winter offensive, northern Luhansk never got out of the starting blocks and except at Vuhledar neither the southern front nor the Dnipro front participated in the winter offensive.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut was absolutely misery for RU, Avdiivka, Marinka, Vuhledar and a few other places.<\/p>\n

Now UA has decimated the defense at the southern front very hard.<\/p>\n

RU is on its own well on the way to decimating the units up in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Do they have reserves we don’t know about?<\/p>\n

I don’t think so.<\/p>\n

Crimea should be almost emptied of elite units, Belarus is emptied, in Russia there can’t be much left after the Belgorod raids because then they would have sent units down to Belgorod. The only thing we saw was General Lapin with this year’s new conscripts and then some cadet school and brigades from the front in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Already in January 2023 they needed to mobilize to be able to counter the UA offensive but they haven’t done that \u2013 we discussed it then and Gregg was on the same track.<\/p>\n

They now seem to have such severe problems with mobilization that they are forcibly recruiting from prisons, storm Z has basically been forcibly conscripted and is completely unmotivated.<\/p>\n

Between Donetsk \u2013 Horlivka there are many rebel units defending and they have taken the most damage in the whole war, always first and always sacrificed. It is impossible that they are in good condition.<\/p>\n

I see it as impossible that the Russian army could get organized again and everyone seems to have given up, they run a little longer on the afterburner but no one is thinking about materiel, ammunition, mobilization, building up units, training and so on on a large scale \u2013 that is, new fresh army corps that can meet the challenge.<\/p>\n

The last push was General Suvorin but he is probably tortured to death now if one may guess, probably shared a cell with Prigozin?<\/p>\n

There is no overall plan anymore to conquer Ukraine or to hold conquered areas, different fronts do the best they can with what they have.<\/p>\n

However, they try to talk the West down but that is going quite badly too.<\/p>\n

Putin has no more cards to play, China will never expose itself, the West will not waver, no one cares about the empty threats.<\/p>\n

Ukraine must cause a shock (discussed in great detail for many months and that is the Azov thrust) and that is exactly what they are doing at the southern front and Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

The likelihood is very high that the army refuses war, that there will be a palace coup or something else fun that ends in the flailing punching bag \u2013 deluxe version in gasoline.<\/p>\n

It is very sad that the West is still braking and it is my conviction that they communicated about the Belgorod raids because it could have accelerated Russia turning inward.<\/p>\n

Now the world’s best infantry must instead be sacrificed because the West continues to be anxious even after Ukraine has shown that they can beat Russia for 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

There is always the angle that Ukraine is still occupied and that this will continue for many years.<\/p>\n

Then one forgets that Russia has already left 40% of conquered territory and is trying to defend the remaining 60% with T54-55 and old PV guns when Ukraine has received the latest version of Leopard and CV90.<\/p>\n

Why would the remaining 60% be so much harder, we think?<\/p>\n

The hardest thing one should have had in this war was when VDV, Spetsnaz and Guards were intact, the Russian artillery at its peak, they had thousands of rockets and air\/helicopters darkened the sky. At the same time as they themselves had not finished mobilizing.<\/p>\n

All of that is behind Ukraine, which in turn is now significantly stronger than they were at the start of the war and, above all, has caught up with the Russian numbers in tanks and surpassed them in soldiers in maneuver brigades.<\/p>\n

Regarding the discussion that they do not fight well and that NATO would have done better, I cannot agree. The NATO breakthrough we discussed was to break through a mine line a few hundred meters deep and then attack the next one, one more, and then you were through.<\/p>\n

Ukraine faces mine lines that are what, +10 km deep where every suitable piece of terrain has a defense system. They tested the NATO doctrine and before losing many brigades, they immediately caught the problem and came to two conclusions \u2013 the fortifications are only a threat if they are manned, so if they knock out all Russian troops instead, it becomes significantly easier to get through.<\/p>\n

The other was that they succeed better with the world’s best infantry instead of large troop concentrations that can be exposed to air attacks, FAB500, Ahkp, and the last artillery. Lancet also seems tough. In Lysychansk, they got badly burned on that.<\/p>\n

What they are forced to sacrifice is time, which they reasonably consider they have.<\/p>\n

I would be very surprised if the offensive dies out before the ground bearing capacity deteriorates; I believe the intensity will increase.<\/p>\n

Then I think MatsExtrude’s post about Wagner is worth discussing; I\u2019ll take it without source criticism, so if anyone wants to show that the numbers are incorrect \u2013 go ahead.<\/p>\n

I shamelessly steal the text from MXT who posted it in his sweat this morning.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Wagner group now claims that 78,000 soldiers participated in the invasion of #Ukraine and that 49,000 of them were recruited from prisons. By 20\/5, a total of 22,000 were said to have been killed and 40,000 wounded. 79% losses, that is. (Wagner graves in Irkutsk. The actual death toll may be significantly higher)\/\u201d
\n\/10,000 then went to Belarus and 15,000 went on vacation, some of them of course wounded.
\n400 of Wagner group’s recruited prisoners now live in a hotel in Anapa on the Russian Black Sea coast and are now waiting to get all documents to go home as pardoned and free men.\/<\/p>\n

We have previously discussed that Wagner was one of the units with the most killed relative to the number wounded as they made their saber-swinging foot assaults across open fields.<\/p>\n

Now they themselves claim they have had 1:2 in losses, and the other numbers fit well with what we have been told \u2013 80,000 total, 15,000 \u2013 30,000 (I thought 30, Erik14 15) remaining and so on.<\/p>\n

Why wouldn\u2019t 1:2 then be correct?<\/p>\n

Translate that to the war in general: 240,000 x 3 \u2013 720,000.<\/p>\n

And then non-combat related injuries on top of that, maybe 30%, higher last winter, so 150,000 total.<\/p>\n

Now the quick-witted might think, how does this add up when they only had 360,000 left last winter according to Budanov.
\nThen maybe DavidD\u2019s calculation wasn\u2019t so bad after all, and it includes everything in the rear, logistics, air force, navy, and so on.<\/p>\n

It is too early to try to predict the outcome right now, the offensive is in full swing and the likelihood of increasing intensity and breakthroughs is high, and then we don\u2019t know how the ground bearing capacity will be at the end of September this year. This spring we got special weather.<\/p>\n

From the stands, I think completely objectively that Ukraine is achieving its combat goals and we already flagged when they started around Bakhmut that it was highly likely this is what we would see.<\/p>\n

Historically, the big breakthroughs have come when the Russian situation became untenable and considering ammunition rationing and all the dismissed higher officers, we are probably approaching that slowly?<\/p>\n

By the way, Accentmannen believed that the base on Crimea had \u201cthousands of Russian soldiers\u201d and the explosions were apocalyptic. We never see that in the statistics of Russians killed.<\/p>\n

For Putin to get out of this hole he has dug for himself, a country at war is needed \u2013 a general mobilization of maybe one or two million pressed into the defense systems and making a Ukrainian offensive impossible.<\/p>\n

My money is on that we will not see that because the Russian effort in this war has already peaked and it is steep downhill from here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Many thanks for the situation report and also for a good laugh regarding DENGAMLES\u2019 antics!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, you think he\u2019s sitting at home sulking over some comment but quite a lot is happening, the question was raised and now that even Putin knows the whole plan, it can be shared \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Wise from experience in this war \u2013 suddenly it happens.
\nIt is my conviction that Ukraine will try to achieve something war-deciding before autumn when they have the capacity to exploit the Russian low point. If then the darkest Donbass remains, so be it.
\nThen of course the question is whether the absence of air support or something else slows down too much, I feel that we perhaps have too little insight into how politics is going behind the scenes, like Belgorod and why it was stopped\u2026<\/p>\n

The funny thing is that everything comes from Dengamle, he is like an endless very funny movie to deal with as he manages to end up in the craziest situations almost always \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Your last paragraph HEASM66 \u2013 we have gotten two names out of 28 and we don\u2019t know what they have done because the link hasn\u2019t been posted.<\/p>\n

When we criticize obvious pro-Russian debaters in Sweden, it is often after an article they have written or some quote, right?<\/p>\n

So no, I\u2019m not trying to protect my extremely good friends in the whole SD (some irony) but thought we had too little so far, someone please post the link with all 28 names and exactly what made them end up on the list.<\/p>\n

According to Surtrutn, it is not Jimmie\u2019s name and that is almost becoming a thread truth soon?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Carl Bildt also had a psyops in the 90s where they used an Italian mini-submarine and in the media described it as a Russian mini-submarine to get some kind of reaction, whatever the purpose was, so he wasn\u2019t exactly pro-Russian?<\/p>\n

It took a while to figure out how he set it up with an English author, SVD, a future press secretary, and presumably the navy\u2019s help \u2013 described in the herring and mink thread on Skalman.<\/p>\n

He was also one of those who pushed the hardest criticism against the Soviet Union and later Russia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1 Very good amplifier by the EU to promise 5 billion EUR annually in ammunition to UA 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