{"id":8031,"date":"2023-07-21T11:24:05","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T09:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:04:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:04:16","slug":"2023-07-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There is a lot happening all the time while everyone is worried that nothing is happening, however, one should not hide the fact that this summer is crucial and Russia knows it just as well as Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The countries tackle the problem somewhat differently, Russia sacrifices lives without blinking and Ukraine tries to reach the goals but save lives \u2013 that says quite a lot about how the countries actually operate.<\/p>\n

As we enter the season when the ground does not support and Russia gets a free pass to reinforce until sometime at the end of November and Ukraine has not made progress, there are many alternative scenarios that could play out.<\/p>\n

It is indisputable that Ukraine is burning through its supplies quickly here as they are on the offensive. The Russians started with half-empty supplies and Ukrainian pre-combat operations have caused serious trouble for the logistics.<\/p>\n

It is too early to start speculating about the alternatives but much is at stake and the West should be very cautious in its belief that it can slow down Ukraine and still get the whole cake and eternal peace out of it.<\/p>\n

I have a feeling that Ukraine will not show weakness until it is too late, if they have tried everything and it did not work, then we will hear about it. It is in their interest to be perceived as strong and to get as many weapons as possible.<\/p>\n

From our spectator seats, there is nothing indicating problems and Budanov has been relaxed the past few weeks, unclear if it is due to Dengamle\u2019s adventures or the war, but the absence of F-16s and the Belgorod raids and other fun stuff being on pause is highly unfortunate \u2013 to win this, Ukraine needs to overwhelm Putin with setbacks and they should not be denied anything at all.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the communication after the NATO meeting was quite ambiguous and Russia perceived it to their advantage \u2013 extremely poor strategic communication from those involved.<\/p>\n

We in Sweden behave ourselves because we had that debate already in the 1980s about not blaming the victims and admittedly it was a very long discussion but we landed correctly.<\/p>\n

So why don\u2019t the UK and France deliver 500 Storm Shadow missiles so Ukraine can take out the Black Sea Fleet?<\/p>\n

They have shown themselves completely incapable of taking out these missiles and one could pick off a couple of ships per week?<\/p>\n

MXT was probably on this \u2013 constantly giving Ukraine exactly what they need to survive but the risk is that one misjudges and makes a mistake and then you end up with the whole problem in the end. As an engineer, you have \u201cfactors of safety\u201d to consider, today admittedly low but you never take chances.<\/p>\n

Right now Wagner is training the Belarusian army so Lukashenko probably has zero intention of giving the country to the people. I also don\u2019t know how things are going with the army but they are probably privileged right now?<\/p>\n

That probably makes it harder for the people to succeed with a popular uprising I guess and that was probably Putin\u2019s ulterior motive with the whole thing besides getting rid of the revolutionaries from Russian soil.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut is now confirmed \u201csemi-surrounded\u201d by Serskyi himself so we can stop guessing. It is thus only a matter of time before the VDV withdraws from the built-up area in Bakhmut. The counterattacks have already come and they have failed as usual.<\/p>\n

Mine clearing is ongoing 24\/7 on the southern front and below from Noel is incredibly insightful, two charges at 100m and 100m and you are only somewhere in the middle of an endless minefield.<\/p>\n

A mine in a sea of mines we can call this picture.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1681941646492028929?s=46&t=9wDFmZwCdT5YA_qJJpYR8Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Anyone else wondering how the vehicle got there with mines behind it \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The problem with the mines is probably that RU shoots remotely laid mines at the cleared streets.<\/p>\n

Then you probably have to clear at night so the vehicles are not shot at but the West has delivered ENORMOUS amounts of mine-clearing equipment so there is probably enough.<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine has probably received cluster bombs for a reason, they believe they can achieve success with them in the defense systems and then we will see if they can do anything about the mines.<\/p>\n

Anyway, it is an additional capability Ukraine has requested and it is against Russians in defense, I don\u2019t know them well enough but I have a feeling they were unpleasantly effective.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1681997534225391618?s=46&t=T6hKQYyQ5Q_2CA1meeCNcA<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1682033624961662981?s=46&t=T6hKQYyQ5Q_2CA1meeCNcA<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding the cluster bombs, they were probably 155mm?<\/p>\n

Equip Archer with them and let a battery put its six shells per firing unit on a target with cluster ammunition \u2013 that will sting the skin incredibly. First, a tired Russian sat scraping the dregs out of a small-size ration can enjoying the sunshine and in the next second hundreds of small 100g charges explode around and the calm morning turned into dull chaos.<\/p>\n

Things are moving too, over 50 prisoners in Robotyne, you don\u2019t see faces so posting for the archive. If I have not misunderstood this, it was Spetsnaz in a counterattack in that area, going well for Putin now.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1682013246100742144?s=46&t=T6hKQYyQ5Q_2CA1meeCNcA<\/a><\/p>\n

Completely without source criticism I post this \u2013 Ukraine takes fewer losses in tanks than Russia and Ukraine is the attacking party and Russia is defending. We have seen the same with work accidents, 1:5 was it?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/OSINTua\/status\/1682088251807375381?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Seems like China is on its way with a new bus-cast regarding the grain deal and Putin\u2019s will to cause world hunger, but you probably dare not write that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1681945905069543424?s=46&t=TWj_Mrlk-kwWp9XmDOUfWg<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the goulash baron has apparently managed to block that nice deal with 20 billion EUR in ammunition to Ukraine over 4 years.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1682268662454001664?s=46&t=Ldx0zMyJXrGfDLd_4q823g<\/a><\/p>\n

Is there a natural law that Orban shall sabotage the EU from within day and night or could one start thinking about actual consequences like withheld contributions and all other benefits one deserves if one is a democracy in the EU?
\nHungary as a country can actually choose to vote out the obviously Putin-allied government but if they continue to receive benefits and no drawbacks they probably have no direct reasons to question it?
\nSurely they are exposed to pro-Russian media and do not get the full picture.<\/p>\n

Then the pre-combat storm has now reached Crimea which is not entirely new but this intensity is completely new \u2013 according to our buddy Accentmannen it was a total write-off (TM blogger) of all Russians in that base \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Regarding the balance of terror at the Black Sea, we must not forget that Ukraine has received a large number of fast \u201criver boats\u201d and a large number of coastal missiles \u2013 attaching a missile launcher to a river boat must be doable?<\/p>\n

Add to that Storm Shadow and the patrol burners as well as some other Easter eggs we have not seen yet against the dysfunctional Russian navy and it could get quite lively if RU tries to put its threats into action.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the Russians are right \u2013 the insurance companies will refuse the transports, so the blockade has essentially already succeeded.<\/p>\n

Very clever of Ukraine to set up its own blockade against Russia, showing the world that they are not afraid of the schoolyard bully. But the same applies there with the insurance companies, so that boomerang hit Putin’s greasy neck pretty quickly.<\/p>\n

As mentioned, it\u2019s a \u201cnumbers game\u201d and right now Ukraine is winning it. We have at least two months and ten days of offensive left, and the heavy lifting has already been done, so the likelihood of something decisive in the war is still high.<\/p>\n

A large part of Ukraine\u2019s offensive reserve has not been used on the southern front and Bakhmut, while Spetsnaz fights as mechanized infantry on the southern front. Just topped off by the 30 clearance divers who died on a hill outside Kharkiv.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t get Rybar\u2019s crying screams anymore because he only writes on Telegram, but according to the below, he is worried about a Russian front collapse, sounds very good.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/michaeldweiss\/status\/1681430568423292933?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

If Spetsnaz fights as mechanized infantry and UA is still advancing, anyone can understand that there is an end date. What is behind VDV and Spetsnaz that could fight better than them?<\/p>\n

Positive-Positive thus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:10 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks, wonderfully positive!! <\/p>\n

Working on a post regarding the grain problem which I see could cause trouble in the long run if there is no resolution before winter, so it feels good that we probably won\u2019t have to get there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, it looks positive, light blue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sorry, but after Erik14 and a few other posts about Girkin.<\/p>\n

Wagner denounced him and they have been at odds with each other.<\/p>\n

Was Girkin pro-Putin and if so, why is he in prison?<\/p>\n

Is it time for Swan Lake in black and white \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Anyway, I\u2019ve stocked up with some Star, a bit of rum and a bag of chips.
\nRaging inflation down here and starting to have import problems, so you have to be happy with what you find right now.<\/p>\n

Our driver couldn\u2019t pay the hospital so they refused to treat his sick daughter, he stopped the car 100 times on the way home to yell at all the doctors on the phone, so we made a collective decision to pay to get home \u2013 cost like half a dinner for one person when we go out\u2026 Income gaps down here are astronomical.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m quite torn about what\u2019s happening \u2013 we assume it\u2019s Putin pulling all the strings but Girkin was unexpected and the whole mess around Prigozhin is at least material for a book. Seems like someone in the thread thought he was still alive.<\/p>\n

Then it was thought that the FSB was the \u201copposite side\u201d but the FSB has been Putin loyal post-Prigozhin and unaware pre-Prigozhin coup. However, 7000 soldiers from the \u201cinternal troops\u201d recently went down, which ABC agency did they lose?<\/p>\n

The old GRU legend was also arrested.<\/p>\n

All higher officers who go down are probably internal conflict MoD \u2013 the army one can guess?<\/p>\n

We probably need PerraG55 to sort this out \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

You hadn\u2019t planned to pay the driver initially?\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n

Hope Perra can sort this out or maybe it will become clearer after some more rum?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

DarthPutin is also confused<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1682419978719358978?s=46&t=_6yKHqij9FFEf6lNXaIOqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

The insurance was supposed to pay but there was some problem.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Girkin looks a bit down during the detention hearing.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1682425141458771970?s=46&t=_6yKHqij9FFEf6lNXaIOqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:45 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Ah, ok! I misunderstood!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Thought this one was good too!<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/DarthPutinKGB\/status\/1682414846938103811?t=hYmnblhfJ77TWJDkxrp_Sg&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Maybe he\u2019s already been invited for tea or had something put in his pants that makes him extra lethargic?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Maybe he\u2019s already been invited for te*a or had something put in his pants that made him extra lethargic?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It continues \u2013 Gubarev arrested.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1682428416094531584?s=46&t=_6yKHqij9FFEf6lNXaIOqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:05 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

There you go, maybe we\u2019ll see a whole chain of purges. So far, they\u2019re not really anyone you\u2019d want to replace Putin, but in the long run, one hopes that some possibly more sensible faction would dare to get rid of Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Everyone thinks this is messy.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1682435642532175890?s=46&t=_6yKHqij9FFEf6lNXaIOqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23 Now it probably takes a Quantum General to sort this out!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

With a glass of rum beside me, I\u2019m working on tomorrow\u2019s post.<\/p>\n

If anyone thinks I\u2019m being too hard on the rum, I present Hunter S Thompson and his daily routine, makes anyone feel like a sporty vegetarian.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/jhan_no1\/status\/1682283011272851456?s=46&t=_6yKHqij9FFEf6lNXaIOqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
19:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Wouldn\u2019t even survive a morning on that \u201cdiet\u201d!\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:59 \u2013 Johan No.1 There is a lot happening all the time while everyone is worried that nothing is happening, 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