{"id":8078,"date":"2023-07-24T09:21:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T07:21:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:17:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:17:06","slug":"2023-07-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It is gratifying to see that Ukraine is still following the grand campaign plan and expanding the bridgehead at the Dnieper.<\/p>\n

Something we have discussed before but which may get lost in all the vivid descriptions and praises is that Ukraine is very much testing its way forward and that fronts \u2013 army corps and probably brigades \u2013 have great freedom.<\/p>\n

The grand campaign plan was built on probability, and then the probability is high that it will happen, but UA has a myriad of different ideas, tests its way forward, and seizes opportunities on the fly as they have done throughout the war. It will probably never be a codeword over the radio and then 19 brigades set in motion at 06:00.<\/p>\n

So far in the war, breakthroughs have come when the Russians have been played into the stands, and on the southern front they are well on their way to sitting up there sulking again, and the same at Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

A thought about the arrests of the worst warmongers \u2013 if the war had gone well, there would have been no problems. One reason for the arrests could therefore be that Russia is now negatively affected by the war not going well and wants to stamp out all media channels that can criticize it?<\/p>\n

A signal, then, that the Russian leadership is beginning to feel uncomfortable with the Ukraine war?<\/p>\n

What one hopes for is that they are paving the way to withdraw from Ukraine, but one dares not draw any conclusions at all.<\/p>\n

What is clear, however, is that those arrested were not associated with Wagner, so it has nothing to do with the palace coup.<\/p>\n

A connection we have not made is that Zelensky has announced that the intensity will now increase and, for example, Rybar has screamed that too.<\/p>\n

There is always the possibility that the loudest warmongers are being arrested preventively in case the southern front collapses and a forced larger retreat occurs?<\/p>\n

Discipline in the ranks ahead of what is to come?<\/p>\n

Not drawing any conclusions there either \u2013 pure speculation all of it and nothing to back it up with.<\/p>\n

Something that is being aired more and more often is that the West has no more weapons and ammunition to send. On pro-Russian sites, this narrative is pushed hard.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s speech yesterday, which the shining sun Surtrutn posted, also had that hope \u2013 the West has run out of materiel.<\/p>\n

Now it is not the West that has sent T54-55 or old PV guns to the fronts, but one should not let the details spoil it for Putin.<\/p>\n

You also don\u2019t see many Ukrainians dragging around Mosin Nagants.<\/p>\n

The West has so damn much materiel to send \u2013 I don\u2019t know how many times we have rhetorically asked whether Portugal, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands need any tanks and IFVs at all or if they would do best in perimeter defense?<\/p>\n

France and the UK are included there as well, together with Denmark and Norway.<\/p>\n

A coordinated effort from the West could send double the amount UA has asked for since summer 2022 and from the top shelf you have to stand on tiptoes to reach with your fingertips.<\/p>\n

Challenger seems to be a very capable tank \u2013 send all the UK has.
\nCV90 is indisputably the best \u2013 send 1500 of them.<\/p>\n

We went through the reasons why they should be sent the other day and reasoned about it \u2013 only upside.<\/p>\n

There is probably one more aspect (maybe\u2026) that one really does not like to discuss \u2013 for the West it might not be the end of the world if the war goes on for another year because we have managed relatively well?<\/p>\n

If one now has sent too little and the Russian flea-bitten bear surprisingly survives this summer, then you can send the next batch with better materiel for next summer\u2019s offensive?<\/p>\n

Maybe it\u2019s even good for the arms producers?<\/p>\n

I see many reasons not to think that way, both humane and practical, and Eastern Europe absolutely does not think so, that we know, but the West has demonstrably no hurry with weapons deliveries so they must have some ulterior motive for the delay?<\/p>\n

Zelensky was noticeably stressed at the NATO meeting and in the meeting with Bulgaria he got angry.<\/p>\n

We have written many times that in this spring offensive tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and that you have to push your amplifiers as hard as you can and let Ukraine win.<\/p>\n

One of the biggest signs that Ukraine is being held on some kind of leash is probably still the Belgorod raids (I know I endlessly harp on about them)?<\/p>\n

I do not want to believe there is a direct line from Putin to the West anymore, but that the invasion of Russia completely stopped is still unanswered for me, and Russian subversive activity is running at full speed \u2013 no idea actually, but why stop what has worked best in the whole war?<\/p>\n

Johan No.1 hereby launches his autumn list to make Putin sleepless and dramatically increase Omeprazole consumption in the MoD \u2013<\/p>\n

-the war-winning weapons package \u2013 250 F-16s, 49 Harriers, 800 Storm Shadows, 1000 Tomahawks, 400 Leo2s, 1500 CV90s, 300 artillery pieces and a huge list of ammunition as well as a delivery date this autumn so everything is deployed for the New Year Offensive 2023, which is announced already in September. They throw in 100 Apache helicopters there too.<\/p>\n

We buy the crap on credit from Portugal and Spain at 20% above new price and the UK gets a golden deal with the EU if they go all in. The rest is paid with the 20 billion the EU has agreed on with the justification that it won\u2019t take 4 years if we go all-in now.<\/p>\n

-Strongly increased sanctions against individual persons in Russia and frozen assets. 2500 people more or something similar<\/p>\n

-A list of 2000-3000 people sent to The Hague for preparation of charges for crimes against humanity. The entire MoD, PR staff, war industry (lots of oligarchs) and so on.<\/p>\n

-Strict controls of the sanctions by searching all RU imports and exports on international waters. Sweden takes the helm for the Baltic Sea together with Denmark and some Arleigh Burke destroyers from the USA.<\/p>\n

The numbers are just to put it in perspective but they pull out something that really stings.<\/p>\n

If we in the thread figure out that Ukraine gets just enough to keep afloat, Russia can do that too, right, and Putin\u2019s speech was a hope that the West would get tired soon.<\/p>\n

Russia will try to hold out until the West gets tired, so why doesn\u2019t the West show that they absolutely are not getting tired by implementing the above war-winning tough measures and giving it maximum PR and showing total unity.<\/p>\n

-One (unclear who, laws are meant to be followed so maybe UA?) follows up this war-winning package with contacts behind the scenes with all opposition worth the name and an unofficial list of what is accepted to broker peace \u2013 Putin, MoD and commanders to The Hague together with a bunch of others, retreat to the 1991 borders, a demilitarized corridor and discussions about a roadmap for normalcy.<\/p>\n

-At the same time UA spreads rumors about who they cooperate with (which they do not) just to increase the number of arrests in Russia.<\/p>\n

-At the border with Russia, Freedom of Russia surges in like an anthill and occupies what they can.<\/p>\n

-The Khalinsky regiment enters Belarus.<\/p>\n

There will never be normalization because Russia will break all agreements as soon as they dare, but we get RU out of Ukraine and then the West must arm up like hell going forward and make sure the perimeter defense holds.<\/p>\n

That’s what I would have done if I were emperor with my own continent, but now our representatives also have reality to relate to \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The spring offensive is probably going as Ukraine intended and the world’s best infantry is tirelessly working to flush Russians out of their holes.<\/p>\n

There are many signs that it will get brighter ahead but right now we are at the stage where one “doesn’t want to take chances,” right, and that’s what we’ve been discussing the past week or so.<\/p>\n

There is always a risk that the pessimists jump on the bandwagon and start claiming the war is lost, but these are really two separate discussions.<\/p>\n

Let Ukraine work through the minefields and we’ll see what they can achieve, but at the same time the West MUST carry out all the amplifiers they can and there are still very many left.<\/p>\n

Every dead Ukrainian is one too many and every Russian soldier who survives is one too many.<\/p>\n

A little retrospective on what we already have behind us \u2013<\/p>\n

\u2013 100 missiles with two weeks interval over several months. That capability no longer exists.<\/p>\n

-Wipe out a square kilometer with artillery.<\/p>\n

-Tank regiment attacks.<\/p>\n

If this is not reduced capability, I don’t know what is.
\nThe summer will be long as said but all arrows point upwards and are light green.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

I vote to let you in as the Western dictator for a couple of weeks until you have sorted all that out!
\nLet me know when you have requested and been granted leave so we can arrange it..<\/p>\n

Joking aside, but it is incomprehensible that the West does not come down hard. It has been speculated about but I don’t think any argument for dragging feet even comes close to being a valid excuse.<\/p>\n

The dam was destroyed.. Some condemnations.. <\/p>\n

Now Odesa and its grain stores are being destroyed. Same thing, lame condemnations without anything concrete (while Russia goes out and says they will save everyone from starvation).<\/p>\n

Putin is allowed to do exactly as he pleases.<\/p>\n

Send everything needed NOW!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What he might mean is that they have broken through the foremost line?<\/p>\n

The front line is the one furthest back with the terminology we have adopted but maybe not everyone went to the right school?<\/p>\n

At least we see well-built defense systems by Russian standards, lots of mines, barbed wire and then the usual heap of RPG rockets they never used.<\/p>\n

And that they have broken through there is indisputable so we see proof that UA has advanced.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:50 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

It is a bit confusing actually. Sometimes the very front (the front) is called the zero line, the next the first and the furthest back the second. Sometimes it is first, second, and third.. <\/p>\n

But you mean (when you write) that the first line is the first real defense line where they have dug in properly?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Yes exactly, the one you reach first whether you come from behind or in front so it can be furthest back or furthest forward \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep same feeling \u2013 the motives we have managed to identify are poor at best.<\/p>\n

As a Dictator (capital D!) I promise a better life for everyone if I just get that position and unrestricted power.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

It can almost be confused with the last line you can reach after passing the first line whether you come from behind or in front but which can also actually be the first line.<\/p>\n

As confusing as with the red lines that you are not allowed to cross but you do anyway and nothing happens and you wonder, was that really a red line just crossed, or even a line, and if not, what was it then that you crossed?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

China seems to have a fairly large export to Russia which is not so secret because here it is.<\/p>\n

They provide the components the Russians need to complete their missiles and other weapons.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1683453579602927617?s=46&t=yE4-LfOthIbCzVQ3wD85fw<\/a><\/p>\n

The fact that Iran and China get to do as they please completely without consequences is probably yet another sign that no one is really putting their foot down here?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

To nuance the discussion a bit about whether Wagner goes into Poland and NATO just watches without taking Article 5 seriously.<\/p>\n

Don’t forget the Poles in that equation, they feel a bit undervalued by being overlooked here.<\/p>\n

A NATO response is not needed because Poland will wipe out Wagner entirely on its own.<\/p>\n

The Belarus army is also not a problem and if Putin reinforces with Russian units there \u2013 perfect because then they disappear from Ukraine. According to reliable sources, the tip of the Belarus army should be 15,000 men but on paper they are around 100,000.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If they jump on the Baltics, Poland will probably assist with death there too.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Things are moving in Bakhmut now \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1683456300863062021?s=46&t=yE4-LfOthIbCzVQ3wD85fw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Good second, perfect.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Now I actually think like others above that Wagner is Lukashenko’s bodyguard.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:50 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, hardly any Article 5 needed to defeat Wagner. Maybe they invoke it just to be safe if Belarus gets involved.<\/p>\n

But the whole scenario feels far-fetched.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Good, thought it was your turn this time! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

That\u2019s why I wrote that they are Lukashenko\u2019s bodyguard above \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Ah, I just wanted to confirm that I agreed with you on that too.\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

These lions can\u2019t possibly lose, it\u2019s that simple.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1683482511492493314?s=46&t=yE4-LfOthIbCzVQ3wD85fw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Seems like it went as well as when my Scottish friend during university in Edinburgh was going to Sweden over the summer and asked me for some phrases that would impress the Swedish girls.<\/p>\n

This was before smartphones and laptops and it simply wasn\u2019t possible to miss such an opportunity. We practiced a couple of sentences for a few weeks until they sounded really good.<\/p>\n

At the start of term it took a few weeks before he spoke to me again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Sorry, that was off topic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
19:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Since you went OT anyway, you might as well continue and enlighten us with some of the phrases!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A slightly larger propellant charge for HIMARS, which ammunition?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1683722738978918400?s=46&t=eTRxoeu7cDmCUKxnhUmQqg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:24 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1 It is gratifying to see that Ukraine is still following the grand campaign plan and expanding 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