{"id":8084,"date":"2023-07-27T10:06:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T08:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-27-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:18:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:18:06","slug":"2023-07-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today it’s a small boat for bathymetry again but it’s cloudy and cool for a change \u2013 no grilled lobster feeling.<\/p>\n

The first thing you do is scroll through and see what PerraG55 has written that you missed \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Got the feeling yesterday that UA has let the different fronts catch up or make up ground and that they are now trying to carry out a coordinated offensive on all fronts within a relatively narrow time window while RU started their offensive up in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

We have the two attack vectors at the southern front that lit up days after UA made a major breakthrough at the Bakhmut front, and the breakthrough came days after RU started their offensive at the northern front.<\/p>\n

Violence at Bakhmut.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1684223230528069632?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n

Staromaiorske taken (according to the Russians).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684470355497189377?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

On top of that, pro-Russian pages are worried about increased intensity at the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

The only thing missing is the third invasion of Russia.<\/p>\n

Feels like good tactics \u2013 they are probably overloading the Russian command and hoping something breaks somewhere.<\/p>\n

When the spring offensive started May 4 with its window for offensive operations, the different fronts lit up weeks apart and at the southern front there were also different start dates at different front sections. I thought that corps and brigades had quite a lot of freedom and had a window to relate to in order to get organized, there has to be a buildup, pre-firing, reconnaissance before finally starting offensive operations.<\/p>\n

Now we got a couple of weeks of mine clearing, positioning and rotation and then a coordinated violent offensive at Bakhmut followed by mechanized breakthroughs at both attack vectors Melitopol and Mariupol and it is likely that intensity will increase at the Dnipro front. All within a couple of days.<\/p>\n

Legendary level as said to be able to coordinate something like that in the middle of a raging war.<\/p>\n

The Russians today are completely incapable of even coordinating attacks properly on one front, like northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

The counterattacks are also completely hopeless, some company gets orders to retake a place and drives straight into Ukrainian defense and dies the Russian hero death which is directly embarrassing for everyone except the Russian historians.<\/p>\n

Apparently artillery accounted for 70% of UA losses during the war so you understand it was a prioritized target.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/shashj\/status\/1684203209269583874?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n

If you want to get lost in conspiracies, Putin started arresting lots of opinion makers just before the intensity increased at UA but we won\u2019t do that.<\/p>\n

On topic \u2013 I believe the Russians are seriously shaken, the number of senior officers getting fired indicates that the officers have abandoned the survival instinct (because they have to) and reported the situation in their area to their superiors.<\/p>\n

Recently the commander of the Bakhmut front was fired.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov meets exactly all officers\u2019 prayers for reinforcements by firing them \u2013 both chief and leader Russian style.<\/p>\n

There is another angle to that, if he had reserves he would just have sent them instead, right?<\/p>\n

Prigozhin who is street-smart got his out before this started and he has told us many times what would happen.<\/p>\n

According to the one who wrote the big campaign plan, the Azov thrust is needed to shake RU enough so that with some luck it could become a dark horse, the army choosing life or palace coup ranks high.<\/p>\n

If they are as slow as they have been so far so it doesn\u2019t become a dark horse, then UA has liberated the entire southern front west of the wedge down to Azov, Crimea is lost (or rather isolated), they push up towards the darkest Donbass and northern Luhansk continues.<\/p>\n

My money is on the Azov thrust being enough but if it turns out not to be, it\u2019s only a matter of time before the war is hopelessly lost for RU after the Azov thrust (according to the one who wrote the big campaign plan).<\/p>\n

It will be VERY exciting to see how the RU mobilization goes, the volunteer mobilization went as expected towards zero.
\nThat means they have to go hard this time \u2013 the walls of the pressure cooker are bulging outwards.<\/p>\n

If mobilization starts early autumn it\u2019s two months until units are reasonably in the trenches since they have already gone through everyone who didn\u2019t need training and could be sent directly?<\/p>\n

As said many times \u2013 Ukraine is pulling its weight on legendary level. The West must bring in more war crimes cases in The Hague, expand sanctions against individuals and promise more weapons so this war ends pretty quickly.<\/p>\n

Even a Russian large-size oligarch has a limit, increase the pressure until he snaps and chases after Putin swinging his samovar.<\/p>\n

On the subject of ancient equipment, the Russians are bringing in stuff that should now be in museums.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1684436880232706049?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

Even at the southern front they have equipment shortages because they have old PV guns in defense there (rapira?), good to know.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684471776061816833?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

An indication that they intend to increase intensity is that Zelensky has met all commanders and tried to motivate with birthday presents and other things \u2013 chief and leader for real.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/christopherjm\/status\/1684475108331589633?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

Interesting article in FT which has been up but second is my life.<\/p>\n

I took away that the rumor about using SOF as snipers seems to be true and that signals to me that UA is going all in here in this offensive.<\/p>\n

It is also an interesting philosophy \u2013 no one is better than others and when required we share the trench.<\/p>\n

The Russians have a whole ladder of privileged levels that would make Indians ashamed of their caste system.<\/p>\n

It also signals that they intend to win the war.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1684463813855178752?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

The euphoria when sitting in a small boat bobbing around is hard to keep alive but at Bakhmut it seems they have only just started and are now pushing forward mechanized units. My last money as an electricity underclass is that we have also only seen the first steps at the southern front now that intensity is increasing.<\/p>\n

According to the big campaign plan there were three attack vectors at the southern front. One was down west of the NS river towards Melitopol.<\/p>\n

The second was in high terrain east of Melitopol and the third southeast of Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Now they have not attacked southeast of Vuhledar but a bit west of the city instead. The one who wrote the big campaign plan is a bit annoyed about that.<\/p>\n

Since they have taken Staromaiorske it indicates a high level of ambition and there it is a bit over 10 km to the front line and then they are through.<\/p>\n

There seem to be no reserves as VDV, Marine infantry, Spetsnaz and Recon are already in the trenches and nervously glancing towards the forest where all the engine noise comes from.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Pressure is increasing and we see it starting to break, mainly at Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Belgorod would be nice. Then I wonder if Ukraine might have something else going on that could surprise everyone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A CV90 seems confirmed knocked out in the video.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/oplatsen\/status\/1684503598258847745?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Increased intensity if nothing else?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Unfortunate!<\/p>\n

Further down in this thread there is a map showing where it happened.<\/p>\n

\u201dStrf-90 In action.
\nEnds up getting hit by ATGM before the video is cut.\u201d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefMon3\/status\/1684500321031053312?t=pnj5y_dQYN3mw9fYqTlOSg&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Worthless that the West still hasn’t provided precision strike aircraft<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1684504148623101953?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Was this up here about RU using ammunition from Myanmar?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684268416255811584?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

No, you are first!<\/p>\n

Sad to see that they can get ammunition from just about anywhere, at the same time a sign that they are starting to run out of their own stocks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Agreed!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude2e twice in one day, tonight will be a party.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Asking again \u2013 the usual suspects on Twitter now have a new unit map in that Google format like the map with the fortifications. They paste it into their posts.<\/p>\n

It’s always screenshots so I wonder if anyone has the link?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I feel like all my friends knew about the party and that I wasn’t invited.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83c\udf7a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If one considers Muslims a people group, then the peoples; Hindus, Norwegians, Christians, Danes, Baltic fishermen, Cypriots and a few hundred more will demand to be included as a people group under the law and refer to the precedent that Muslims have been considered a people group.<\/p>\n

It will quickly become illegal not to like fish, we must stop eating cows, everyone must praise vacationing in Denmark in winter and by some mosquito-infested lake in Finland in summer or else be guilty of incitement against a people group.<\/p>\n

That could get messy \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Wagner on the way back to Africa<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/kromark\/status\/1684591240061284357?s=46&t=4gYWwKqVN3qwlcTcRol7RA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If anyone doubted that Seymour Hersh was a hateful pro-Russian.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1684590149869645824?s=46&t=4gYWwKqVN3qwlcTcRol7RA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Imgen is worried about counter battery fire<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684633126109151232?s=46&t=FYgOkuDk6YUtFSnAjbeS8A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:38 \u2013 Johan No.1 Today it’s a small boat for bathymetry again but it’s cloudy and cool for a change […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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