{"id":8088,"date":"2023-07-29T09:00:51","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T07:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-29-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:19:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:19:15","slug":"2023-07-29-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-29-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-29"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions \u270a
\nUkraine cannot lose with the world’s best infantry.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1684983410656194563?s=46&t=yo9XXGVMob1ln1WH38pSNQ<\/a><\/p>\n

One of those morning thoughts \u2013 do you know why Putin moved nuclear weapons to Belarus?
\nHe might be afraid that UA can reach them in Russia, the Iskander platforms, but in Belarus they are protected because the West does not allow operations on Belarusian territory.
\nInstead of strength, it is weakness \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now that Girkin is arrested and can no longer be the canary in the coal mine, we have to rely on the LPR blogger Muntz, who is possibly even more upset than Girkin and much of what he writes is what we have reasoned about for a long time in the thread.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1684930254043750401?s=46&t=yo9XXGVMob1ln1WH38pSNQ<\/a><\/p>\n

This Twitter user believes that UA is now at or near the second line (or soon will be).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nlwartracker\/status\/1685022163806429186?s=46&t=OCCfVSAgg-_-eHpX34QJTQ<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russian team is now carrying out all the counterattacks they can, it is probably quite intense at the Bakhmut front right now and they are trying near northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Unclear how the counterattacks are going at the southern front but they do not seem to be successful.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1685100088782159872?s=46&t=ijEqJ4vAvImH1argt3jGzg<\/a><\/p>\n

Russian psyops are also currently on steroids, they are absolutely desperate for a negotiated solution and are trying to slow down the tide and get one through, will return to that.<\/p>\n

We previously had a task to look for cracks in the Russian wall (or maybe the Potemkin facade) and there were a few when it was happening.<\/p>\n

Today the whole wall is cracked and in the middle there is a big hole where a yellow-blue arm with a hammer has broken through and you hear a few million chanting Zeleeeeeensky behind the wall.<\/p>\n

There are countless signs now that this is going to hell for the Russians and UA has only just begun its spring offensive.<\/p>\n

We still see videos from the 3rd Assault Brigade (Azov) that opened the offensive at Bakhmut, at least over two months of fighting!<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut the rest of the elite units are beginning to get seriously bored standing there eating hot dogs and psyching out the Russians on Telegram.<\/p>\n

– Prigozhin’s little coup.
\n– Prigozhin receives African leaders at his hotel.
\n– The number of dismissed commanders is extreme.
\n– The number of brigade commanders killed in combat is high.
\n– Putin is truly the loneliest man in the world \u2013 now only North Korea remains.
\n– Africa’s leaders avoid Putin like the plague.
\n– Girkin et al. arrested.<\/p>\n

– There is a rumor that the General Staff has ordered a retreat from the front line, like the French did, and the thing is that when you break through a line at one point it becomes obsolete. However, I have another thought about that, will return below.<\/p>\n

– Peskov starts whining that Ukraine does not want peace.
\n– There is a rumor, or two, one that RU will soon make a bigger “goodwill gesture” and the other that at the fronts the units believe they will be rotated home in September.<\/p>\n

– The age of those who can be called up to war has been changed (I think) which signals that some generations that have already been overused are running out.
\n– Videos of even older equipment than T54-55 have been seen on trains and there is not much T90 on those trains nowadays. Rapira PV cannon was seen recently at the southern front.
\n– Erik14 posted this morning that RU is using ammunition from North Korea.<\/p>\n

Has anyone heard anything, a single statement, from China in the last month where they push for Russia to keep the land they have conquered?<\/p>\n

Asked a month ago since I couldn\u2019t find anything myself and no one answered.<\/p>\n

IF it is true that the General Staff has ordered a retreat from the front line, the likely reason is that they do not have units to fully man the second and third lines.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the thing \u2013 Ukraine has broken through at two points and is pressing at a third point. The front line is very long and it requires a large number of brigades to hold it.<\/p>\n

If they start running out of reserves, the defense further back at the breakthrough points is weak and the General Staff sees that they do not have offensive reserves to plug the holes with.<\/p>\n

What they then do is order the entire front line to retreat to the next line and in that way they buy themselves more units to man the next line with.<\/p>\n

There are several interesting takes on this \u2013 if UA follows that retreat, RU will never get organized on the next line before they crash into it, and if they play the drone card right, they can see WHERE the Russians retreat (mine-free) and they can strike retreating Russians on the highway.<\/p>\n

The units now retreating have fought a long time without rotation and have poor combat value and shall now man the next line. Ukraine will advance with new rested brigades \u2013 tired, sluggish Russians against extremely motivated and rested Ukrainian shooters.<\/p>\n

Some might wonder what happened to Dengamle and Budanov, got an update yesterday and what was guessed would happen was exactly what happened \u2013 wild tigers and Dengamle are a lousy combo which Budanov has now learned the hard way, no videos of him for a while.<\/p>\n

We will return to this eventually, PerraG55 was standing and waiting with the truck so everything was prepared. With some risk that I misunderstood and it was some bar fight instead.<\/p>\n

One more thing about UA not having full control over the mining and how we have discussed the all-seeing eye earlier (US intelligence gathering). <\/p>\n

There are two schools here \u2013 one where the US set up a large analysis group in Lviv that gave UA target coordinates almost in real time and where all their reconnaissance resources were available. If you remember when HIMARS came, the rumor was that they timed it down to Gerasimov\u2019s visit to a mobile field post or something. I then made the connection that they used to do the same with Al Qaeda leaders and strike when they all met.<\/p>\n

Then came the rumor that the US promised not to contribute information anymore.<\/p>\n

We KNOW from commercial satellites that you can get photos down to individual tanks on the ground that you can see clearly and we suspect that with spy satellites you can see what brand of cigarette soldiers are smoking. You should thus be able to find RU units in cover quite easily if you have the time and capability.<\/p>\n

I have probably imagined how “five eyes” or whatever they are called put everything aside and focused all their reconnaissance capacity, and analysis capacity, on finding targets for Ukraine\u2019s indirect weapons.<\/p>\n

At the southern front they have used the strategy of luring out the task force to be able to strike it with indirect fire which suggests that they did not have coordinates to the task force\u2019s grouping area where they were hiding because otherwise they would have hit them there already?<\/p>\n

Without knowing the least, maybe there is truth in that the US when they said they would not give UA targeting data might have been telling the truth?<\/p>\n

Don’t remember exactly when it was but sometime in 2022.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has bought some satellite, they have drone reconnaissance, SOF, partisans, and spies so they seem capable of solving the task and above all they have automated and shortened the time from target identification to firing on the target.<\/p>\n

I’m very curious to find out after this war how much information they got from the West and how much they had to gather themselves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

One remains very saddened that the West refuses to give everything here, we have reports of eastern armor at the southern front \u2013 BMP-1 \u2013 which are completely useless with their 100mm low-pressure cannon and that RU knocked out a company of those.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is taking enormous losses in this spring offensive and the hope is of course that RU breaks and the war ends.<\/p>\n

To be on the safe side, the West MUST also bring in their amplifiers but they never will.<\/p>\n

It’s almost as if the West is waiting to see the outcome of the spring offensive first before they decide\u2026<\/p>\n

Just as if Ukraine had had heavy vehicles in autumn 2022 they would have had advanced aircraft in summer 2023 \u2013 but they didn’t come.<\/p>\n

If the US had sent 1500 Bradleys that mech company would have largely survived, now it became a turret toss.<\/p>\n

An example \u2013 there is probably nothing more upheaving for a child than when he is exposed to something and then the child’s father comes to the rescue. The child feels completely safe and then the father gets beaten \u2013 the whole worldview collapses.<\/p>\n

Ukraine seems to be fighting against this all the time, at first no one believed in them at all and then everyone expects them to perform miracles with bow and arrow and at the first sign of weakness the West completely withdraws, shaken. RU is constantly trying to create an effect where the West abandons Ukraine with the most stingy methods.<\/p>\n

Now there is discussion about a scenario that will not happen but IF Russia manages to wriggle out of this then the West has put itself in a really bad spot. Then the entire BRIICS sphere will smell morning air and a large part of the world’s weaker countries in Africa and Asia will experience the multipolar world, more on that in the next post.<\/p>\n

The West has a responsibility greater than just Ukraine here and right now they are not shouldering it at all \u2013 Wagner and Russia have the ambition to become a power factor in many countries in Africa right now.<\/p>\n

It is COMPLETELY incredible that the West has not already put together the war-winning weapons package, that they have not sent the wheelbarrow with all war crimes by express mail to The Hague, that they have not imposed tough sanctions on all responsible and accomplices to this war, that they do not block Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea and a whole bunch of amplifiers too.<\/p>\n

That Ukraine only got cluster munitions now is a scandal and now that we have learned that the US has thermobaric weapons \u2013 why hasn’t Ukraine received them, one might ask?<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut a carpet of thermobaric weapons would have cleared Klishchiivka in a day, right?<\/p>\n

The Russians have had several companies of TOS-1 in the war since day 1.<\/p>\n

Geographically small areas that are extremely well fortified could have been successfully targeted with these weapons now in this offensive and it would have saved lives.<\/p>\n

Have you noticed that Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have issued joint statements about what they will do at the slightest threat from Wagner in Belarus or Belarus?<\/p>\n

Because we have not heard a single statement from NATO or the EU about that escalation really\u2026<\/p>\n

There are two real-times we are following here \u2013 one is where the Russian subversive activity remains and we have disasters like with Amnesty, the sport, early Scholz, early Macron or where IAEA comes out and says they have not seen any mining even though they have not been given access to any areas.<\/p>\n

-the Russian subversive activity works perfectly and they bully their way to advantages and everyone is worried.<\/p>\n

Then we have what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, the rolling beggar camp is getting beaten by a Ukraine that fights on with the weapons they have received from a disadvantage that they through legendary-level warfare have turned into an advantage.<\/p>\n

It’s absolutely risk-free to go all-in right now from the West, right?<\/p>\n

And Russia has already declared to everyone that the Slavic empire shall go from Vladivostok to Lisbon and that they shall bomb Paris and London with nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

You don’t gamble with something like this and right now the West is gambling even though it is my conviction that Ukraine will come out winning from this.<\/p>\n

The risk is always that we stand there like wide-eyed children and see the father take a right hook from a dad who actually trained.<\/p>\n

We actually know that Poland (or we believe we know\u2026) sent fully functioning Mig-29s when there were spare parts on the box and that it was in direct conflict with the West’s directives \u2013 why does the West consider itself entitled to pressure Poland into something like that?<\/p>\n

What gave the West the right to set demands on Eastern Europe about what they could and could not give to Ukraine, they are all next in line if Ukraine loses?<\/p>\n

I can also think that Poland early on should have taken over the monitoring of the Belarus border with “customs officers,” very well armed ones, so UA could have freed all those brigades to the eastern front in summer 2022.<\/p>\n

Poland should also have been allowed to guarantee that they would intervene with maneuver brigades if there was an offensive from Belarus (that guarantee may have existed, who knows\u2026)<\/p>\n

The West should already have established “humanitarian zones” where they deployed their own operational air defense that would protect against “misfired missiles” (that argument would absolutely have held). For example, Odessa would have been perfect or the power supply.
\nThen UA could have used more of its air defense at the fronts.<\/p>\n

That Putin was motivated to raise the tone after the NATO meeting is directly embarrassing for the West \u2013 terrible signaling politics.<\/p>\n

After this war we will first understand RU’s astronomical losses but also how large losses UA took and it is much higher than we know, all because the West wants to play diplomats and think for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Right now, seeing how Russia is colonizing Africa in our time through torture, desecration, and murder, one wants nothing more than for the country to turn inward.<\/p>\n

The last thing Africa needs is China and Russia allying with all the dictators and spreading their multipolar world and they are well on their way to doing that.<\/p>\n

There is probably a considerable aversion from the West due to discussions about colonization and our colonial legacy.
\nThe conspiracy theorist might start wondering if that was also a successful Russian psyops..<\/p>\n

I did a Google search to see if the prominent groups in the discussion about colonization and the colonial legacy have criticized neo-colonialism from China and Russia \u2013 I couldn’t find anything at all but maybe I did a poor search.<\/p>\n

I am probably a bit hobby-professionally damaged since I have spent a long time on Russia’s subversive activities around the Baltic Sea and how it was always about the West disarming but never a word about Russia.<\/p>\n

An American soldier on Swedish soil was escalation and almost war, but the Russian nuclear submarine that slipped through the Kattegat worried no one.<\/p>\n

The same movements suspected of being pro-Russian have been completely silent about the Ukraine war (almost), so there you have almost had your suspicions confirmed.<\/p>\n

Then Russia dusted off an old plan around the Baltic Sea a few months ago, I have forgotten the details but it had all the similarities with how they worked in the 80s.<\/p>\n

South Africa is a lousy example because no one liked apartheid but as far as I understand it was Russia that pushed the sanctions by getting a grassroots movement going at universities in the West and today South Africa is demonstrably quite pro-Russian. A lousy example as I said since it was probably them who did SA a favor and the West who supported the apartheid regime but just to show Russian subversive activity.<\/p>\n

China and Russia have a very aggressive colonization policy towards Africa right now which is completely ignored by all the organizations that have been most prominent in decolonization and around Africa being treated with dignity.<\/p>\n

Civilians living in the countries Wagner has ravaged have been subjected to incomprehensible abuses and the world sleeps.<\/p>\n

The conspiracy theorist can start to suspect that the West has been pacified through the colonial legacy discussion in recent years so that Russia and China can take over Africa in peace and quiet.<\/p>\n

Western politicians are primarily worried about their jobs and if the colonial legacy is at the top of the agenda, they will not send troops to Africa anytime soon even if the countries ask for it, especially if certain organizations in the home country go out widely in the media and announce that it would be the same as recolonizing Africa \u2013 no politician wants to run that gauntlet.<\/p>\n

Now I went really far off track but I am honestly worried about how it will go with Africa actually. You quickly discover that those you work with have exactly the same problems as yourself with family, sick children, school, too much work and so on with the only difference that they live in totalitarian and very poor states. The continent deserves infinitely much more than to be recolonized by China and Russia.<\/p>\n

To my great disappointment, the president of Angola was in Russia shaking Putin’s hand, I thought better of them\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Darkness, there is the school of thought that says we do not understand and that decision-makers do the right thing because they are decision-makers and know best \u2013 we do not have the whole picture.<\/p>\n

It is like I try to write every time this comes up, two different discussions \u2013 UA will win the signs are insanely many and then the West’s sluggishness.<\/p>\n

If you “finally” accept it, for me it is an acceptance of a very cold calculating West that still does not want to see a collapsing Russia.<\/p>\n

Then you accept Russia’s colonization and also that Russia will come again in round two \u2013 summer 2022 we probably began to seriously understand that a collapsing Russia is preferable and the longer the war goes the stronger my conviction becomes.<\/p>\n

I suspect (have zero to support it) that there are normally functioning leaders in the West who still believe we can go back to pre-2014.<\/p>\n

That train left long ago \u2013 Wagner is now driving coups in Africa if anyone has missed that.<\/p>\n

If China and Russia get wings under their wings it will be the great conflict of our time which Ukraine is well on its way to stopping entirely on its own. The stakes are sky-high.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I cried a little yesterday over the horrible barbecue chips and a lukewarm Star beer, yes it is okay to cry \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

On topic, until New Year’s 2022 it was some kind of starting stretch and then the heavy vehicles came. There and then the West should have gone all in which I probably thought they did but they have not.<\/p>\n

Not understanding today is criminally narrow-minded actually. Just as you write everything is playing out again as it should never be allowed to play out again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Below is the first time in a long time we read about reinforcements to the southern front.<\/p>\n

I am very interested in which units and where they come from \u2013 that would say an incredible amount about RU reserves.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/warmonitor3\/status\/1685234039211343872?s=46&t=nKBucElD5mek7InWBnFwWg<\/a><\/p>\n

Mariupol means that they recorded from Rostov na Don and not from down by Crimea and that they are not existing units in the area reasonably?<\/p>\n

Possibly they drove them the long way from Donetsk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Guess we have to wait for Erik14 as usual \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

(At 21:00 he takes over the workstation from me).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

So, nothing in that mass of text was directed at you Darkness, I was just thinking out loud \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1000<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Unfortunately, it can be enough with a corrupt leader and a couple of thousand Wagner soldiers who stand for “security” to ensure a dictatorship and ruin the whole country and its population.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Much indirect death.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/antiputler_news\/status\/1685367991372853250?s=46&t=ICyZKgyH40G-GBH7D-GfPg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Moscow was droned yesterday (again).<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1685524719859081216?s=46&t=EcxBUzqlH6TfZ8v0et37fw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

And drone swarm against Crimea \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1685525455443472384?s=46&t=EcxBUzqlH6TfZ8v0et37fw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

End of July so time to sum up RU losses again \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Have to wait until Ragnar has updated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Understatement of the month regarding drone damage in Moscow<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1685539192518885377?s=46&t=EcxBUzqlH6TfZ8v0et37fw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Just replace a couple of window panes and it’s fixed! \ud83d\ude06<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Lyla_lilas\/status\/1685545225647693824?t=W21Btg0HWPJ6poxUcDfO4g&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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