{"id":8090,"date":"2023-07-30T10:47:53","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T08:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:19:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:19:39","slug":"2023-07-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-07-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday we received the first report in a long time about reinforcements to the southern front through Mariupol.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/warmonitor3\/status\/1685234039211343872?s=46&t=nKBucElD5mek7InWBnFwWg<\/a><\/p>\n

If we can figure out which units these are, we could probably draw quite good conclusions about the Russians’ reserves; if anyone has info, please post it.<\/p>\n

There is only one factor that could torpedo Ukraine’s spring offensive, and that is if RU manages to bring in a large number of reserves that slow down UA’s advance long enough for them to suffer exhaustion or resource shortages.<\/p>\n

Today there is only one area with reserves still, and that is up in northern Luhansk where a couple of VDV regiments have also been kept.<\/p>\n

At all other fronts, there should be various stages of decay.<\/p>\n

And if you weaken northern Luhansk, you open the Ukrainian revolving door.<\/p>\n

The reinforcements at the southern front must then come from Russia so as not to counteract the purpose, as they would otherwise weaken another front.<\/p>\n

I have now seen more than one media article stating that “Russia has reserves,” but absolutely none include units and their condition in the article \u2013 some suspicion of planted Russian psyops.<\/p>\n

This is now the single most important factor to keep an eye on, and the fact that the Belgorod raids have not started on a large scale is unfortunate because we wrote that they would tie down units to the northern front.<\/p>\n

What we know from before is that there absolutely are no “150,000 in the bases in Russia” because they would have appeared during the Belgorod raids or the Wagner march.<\/p>\n

What is currently moving through Mariupol is therefore an important puzzle piece of information regarding the condition of the Russian army.<\/p>\n

There has been endless discussion about what kind of vehicles drove towards the dragon’s teeth and got stuck in the tank ditch, and the reasonable explanation is probably a remotely controlled vehicle?<\/p>\n

If the Russians can remotely control vehicles, surely Ukraine can too, and it is a smart reconnaissance resource that saves lives.<\/p>\n

No artillery, no mines, no close air support, and no anti-air missile.
\nExciting, to say the least\u2026<\/p>\n

There is absolutely nothing to back this up with, but if it turns out that RU ran a Potemkin fa\u00e7ade with the mines, Ukraine has already done the heavy lifting, but they dare not bet a single gear on it.<\/p>\n

We often discuss which weapon systems will win the war but tend to forget that without the world’s best infantry, you won’t get far.<\/p>\n

Number two is that the world’s best infantry has adequate training and does not carry out wild bayonet charges to die a heroic death \u2013 the goal is to kill enemies, not to fall as an honorable hen in a cloud of courage.<\/p>\n

Beyond that, everything else comes in a priority order that probably changes somewhat over time.<\/p>\n

There are examples of countries whose defense collapsed in a few days because the army chose life, and there are examples of armies that ran across minefields to the last man, which they considered the definition of heroism, and then lost.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has from the start proven to be surprisingly street-smart for what we define as an old Soviet state, and they have absolutely been willing to die for their cause.<\/p>\n

If you go back to the first months in the thread, we made an observation \u2013 Russian soldiers emptied their magazines towards Ukraine, and Ukrainian soldiers were waist-deep in water or rolling around in mud, all to get a hit on the target; all that mattered was hitting the target \u2013 a distinct difference in the videos we saw, and we commented on that a bit.<\/p>\n

From my side, it also looks like they adapt very quickly to the situation and that the entire country’s technical intelligentsia is sitting and figuring out new ways to kill Russians in pits, as humanely and environmentally friendly as possible.<\/p>\n

Without the world’s best infantry, Ukraine would have been overrun a long time ago.<\/p>\n

I am quite sure that the 190,000 at the start of the war did not include Wagner, DPR and LPR, Rosgvardia, FSB units, and possibly VDV.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s army was largely gone in the ATO area, and if I understand correctly, full mobilization had not been carried out. They definitely had many units left in the bases \u2013 we know that.<\/p>\n

The units that took the full brunt in the first months could be 90% decimated, but they fulfilled their combat tasks, which overall led to Russia failing all its combat objectives.<\/p>\n

The figure of 7,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war has been circulating (probably significantly fewer today after torture and murder), and we know that in Mariupol, 1,000-1,500 surrendered. The first months were existential for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

They had to deploy the home guard at Popasna on the front line where the main attack later came because the Russians understood that, and so on.<\/p>\n

Over time, they have managed to train and equip an offensive reserve that is very powerful and today may have been deployed to 40-50%.<\/p>\n

The constant boasting that Western mechanized forces would have broken through the Russian lines in a few days comes from those who have too high an opinion of themselves and their own invincibility.<\/p>\n

There are countless interviews with Western SOF who have fought in the various units; they have done several tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and have been open that the Eastern front was magnitudes worse in comparison.<\/p>\n

The last time this happened was in 1939, and the country that stood out then was Finland; the rest of today’s NATO countries were overrun one after another, and the USA had several years to prepare.<\/p>\n

All of the USA’s wars since then have not been against a qualified enemy, and Ukraine also lacks critical capabilities that they have tried to bridge with cheap street alternatives because the West refuses to send them.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is the underdog just like Finland was, and they are on their way to succeeding in defeating Russia on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

For Germany to be defeated, both the collective West and a huge exhaustion campaign of their supply were needed. Instead of B-17s and unlimited incendiary bombs, Ukraine solves it with small hobby drones and a winged grenade.<\/p>\n

Ukraine managed to stop the Russian offensive and with very small means disrupt their logistics.<\/p>\n

They managed to build an offensive reserve and now have the initiative on all fronts \u2013 if that is not legendary level, I don’t know what is.<\/p>\n

NATO advocates discuss how much better they would have fought without having seen combat since WW2, and without listening to their own veterans who fight as volunteers in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Right now, UA is fighting against VDV, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, naval infantry, and the last capable guards with all branches of weapons as support \u2013 they are to be considered a qualified opponent.<\/p>\n

They are well on their way to breaking through both at Bakhmut and the southern front even without full Western support, and I find it hard to see that any other country could have done this much better with the same equipment.<\/p>\n

Now that we have reached the end of July, it is appropriate to reflect a bit on RU losses \u2013 <\/p>\n

-LV is the highest ever and has been rising since February.
\n-Artillery is the second highest and has been rising since February.
\n-Barbarians have been high since the turn of the year, and it is notable that when RU goes on defense, it is still high.
\n-MLRS highest ever.
\n-Special equipment highest ever and rising since February.
\n-MBT and IFV have leveled off throughout 2023, and to me, that means they are critically short on them.
\n-It is also notable that missiles and UAVs have decreased in the last month or months \u2013 I suggest they are short on those as well.<\/p>\n

I think it is clear that the rocket weapon is decreasing and that RU lacks armored vehicles.<\/p>\n

Artillery, air defense, and special equipment are being taken out in such large quantities that it is likely true that RU has problems with counter-battery fire and that fire support has decreased drastically.<\/p>\n

Artillery accounted for 70% of UA losses according to someone, so maybe it is true that UA losses have decreased and are at a 1:5 ratio against RU?<\/p>\n

Oryx now has 80 T62s knocked out and 1 T54-55; we have seen them used offensively. The real number of knocked-out T62s should be double or something like that.<\/p>\n

These are hard numbers and they don\u2019t lie, while the number of knocked-out tanks goes down, the number of knocked-out T62s increases and now the T54-55s will probably come as well.<\/p>\n

For me, the Russian tactic is crystal clear \u2013 try to talk the West down and show strength at any cost.<\/p>\n

The winter offensive was to preempt Ukraine\u2019s winter offensive, pretty sure of that. UA stayed calm and RU could attack wherever they wanted \u2013 they had a comfortable offensive except for those who ran across the fields and died the Russian heroic death that songs will be sung about.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine\u2019s spring offensive started, RU was passive at first and many brigades turned and ran.<\/p>\n

Then the counterattacks began, the diversion up in northern Luhansk, counterattacks on the southern front and at Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

They did not at all do as Ukraine did by defending and retaking lost fortifications in local counteroffensives; instead, they attack more broadly and over larger areas.<\/p>\n

For me, it is clear that they are trying to project strength, that Ukraine will not advance over an entire summer and then try to talk the West down.<\/p>\n

There are also many tentacles of subversive activity inside Ukraine sowing the same discontent and frustration that we receive in the West \u2013 soldiers\u2019 lives are wasted unnecessarily, the generals are corrupt and sacrifice lives for their own gain, the best thing would be to stop fighting, and so on.<\/p>\n

This is Putin\u2019s narrative that RU subversive elements are now trying to spread in the West.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1685553805696389120?s=46&t=EcxBUzqlH6TfZ8v0et37fw<\/a><\/p>\n

The problem with this strategy is that the opponent is Ukraine, which has had 250 years of Russian abuses to vent and a chance to give back, and that the strategy has an end date when they run out of offensive capacity.<\/p>\n

One does not dare to draw any conclusions from this yet actually, but some signals exist that it is sparsely populated in the rear lines and not the same density of mines as in the front terrain UA has now broken through at Robotyne and Staromaiorske.<\/p>\n

UA still has gas left and will thus be able to check the cards and see if it is a bluff or not before it gets muddy and difficult to drive in the fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d War Monitor is probably not the most credible source and as long as we don\u2019t see more indications that reserves have been sent in, this should be considered just rumors.<\/p>\n

That Russia is pushing propaganda hard and keeps harping on nuclear threats while also emphasizing that they are ready for peace talks is probably a clear sign that they are in trouble.<\/p>\n

Did you see my post in yesterday\u2019s thread? That deliveries are now coming from Kazakhstan? Also, they visited North Korea… Clearly, they are starting to run out of both this and that.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just for Ukraine to keep grinding slowly and this will go well.<\/p>\n

If Russia mobilizes, it can of course delay (if they get there in time), but without equipment it will then be a meat grinder and we will probably see KIA shoot over a thousand again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yeah, North Korea was a highlight \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Missed the one about Kazakhstan apparently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Lyla_lilas\/status\/1685554868109352960?t=ELE2_eBJ9H0_-0YcXJ71GA&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Anders \u00c5slund speaks frankly, giving some legitimacy to our constant whining in the thread about the West\u2019s sluggishness \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anders_aslund\/status\/1685484031482224640?s=46&t=UEpymcMOvT6whOLS4FA7KQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

To OUR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Well written by him. Hope it gets through!\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

\ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

\ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

MXT posted a video of the Russian reserve above doing morning exercises.<\/p>\n

Now you almost understand why Stalin experimented with ape hybrids that were supposed to become the new super soldiers.
\nThe apes probably don\u2019t get drunk day and night.<\/p>\n

The country Russia is a study in absolute chaos.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/blogs.scientificamerican.com\/primate-diaries\/stalins-ape-man-superwarriors\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Sometimes you almost get the impression that they secretly actually succeeded with those experiments…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

So angry I\u2019m boiling over at the Tatarigami army bases in Rostov that they find with commercial satellites but which the moral stronghold West has decided absolutely must not be touched \ud83d\ude21\ud83d\ude21\ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

So now it\u2019s a dinner at Westback Hotel and five beers later but I\u2019m absolutely boiling.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The West is completely shameless\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Seems like there will be fuel riots here this week, lucky I bought a new rum \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I trust Erik14, that Ukraine will solve it with their own stuff. Zelensky also seems to have stopped caring what the West says so let\u2019s hope they can give them some serious bonk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yesterday we received the first report in a long time about reinforcements to the southern front 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