{"id":8098,"date":"2023-08-02T09:41:12","date_gmt":"2023-08-02T07:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-02-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:21:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:21:43","slug":"2023-08-02-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-02-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA now seems to have broken through the front line and widened the breakthrough.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1686314119949938688?s=46&t=w0c42uzWYVSPtmPgx0yieA<\/a><\/p>\n

Perhaps the French are starting to become relevant soon?<\/p>\n

There was also a rumor that RU command had ordered a retreat from the first line, just a rumor, and our guess was that they needed to replenish the lines further back and were short on reserves.<\/p>\n

Then we wrote yesterday that UA is creating the same conditions at the Zaporizhzhia front as at Kherson before operation Badanka (I have posted a bunch of evidence that it happened, if anyone claims otherwise I will post again).<\/p>\n

According to Accent Man, RU had moved all supplies down to Crimea (which UA is now hitting\u2026) earlier to avoid HIMARS.<\/p>\n

By knocking out the supplies in Crimea and destroying all bridges, they are effectively choking off the logistics to the southern front right now.<\/p>\n

Yes, they are also coming in from the Rostov-on-Don direction but are constantly exposed to consequences, several convoys have been shot up recently and we see \u201cfuel trucks\u201d being shot up every day in the daily death run.<\/p>\n

It will soon (if not already) become an acute shortage of ammunition, food, and so on, which will worsen the misery for Russians in the trenches.<\/p>\n

A retreat down to Crimea is absolutely on the cards here and it is an enormous area RU will give up in their big goodwill gesture for peace in our time this time.<\/p>\n

At first, the thread was ridiculed because we would never be able to make a difference with a whole bunch of writers who later disappeared \u2013 the message was that we might as well quit and spend our time on something else.<\/p>\n

An effective weapon has been drone-dropped wing grenades from MAVIC drones, they take out armored vehicles and infantry in very large numbers.<\/p>\n

It would be interesting sometime to know how many drones private initiatives have acquired \u2013 I think very many. This thread has probably contributed to a significant number of drones over time. An effective way for engaged citizens to contribute to killing Russians in trenches since it was a capability Ukraine lacked in the beginning.<\/p>\n

Do you know what Putin is up to in Belarus (maybe).<\/p>\n

The Belgorod raids are his inspiration, I\u2019m starting to think, he will try to create something similar to the Belgorod raids and be able to claim he was not involved.<\/p>\n

Of course, they will come up with something but Lukashenko will delay and brake and Poland will remain silent like a wall so the fire never ignites, but there is a high probability that something will happen.<\/p>\n

It is probably too early but sometime during the summer RU artillery will be ordered to fire up existing ammunition at the southern front and it will be a firestorm against the cities they can reach.<\/p>\n

Now we have heavy shelling against Kherson but probably too early for a retreat from the Dnipro front, but worth keeping an eye on going forward.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1686489911958855680?s=46&t=3tVuQstgYK2b48vQ7AuPfQ<\/a><\/p>\n

The subject of Russian reserves, which are harder to capture on camera than a kingfisher, has the MoD discussing the 25 CAA. I find no information about them but it probably suggests 80,000 if it is fully staffed or something?<\/p>\n

So even IF it were fully staffed (which it most likely is not) it is too little and too late, but I am still curious about it if anyone has information about this mythical unit.<\/p>\n

The Brits guess they need mobilization to staff this mythical army that no one has seen yet and then it won\u2019t be at the fronts until sometime in November.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defencehq\/status\/1686617177497944065?s=46&t=3tVuQstgYK2b48vQ7AuPfQ<\/a><\/p>\n

What made the blood pressure meter glass burst yesterday was that the UN came out and condemned the drone attacks on Moscow \u2013 it drives you completely crazy.<\/p>\n

I googled a bit and found no strong statements from the UN about the excessive force against Ukraine recently.
\nIt is completely incomprehensible how the West can still communicate to Russia\u2019s advantage \u2013 completely incomprehensible.<\/p>\n

I have a bit of a reputation for diagnosing acute positivity but if you have followed Erik14 lately he is the guy in the thread who never budged an inch when everyone worried about the spring offensive \u2013 you have to look hard to find more burning conviction but since it\u2019s 2:00 AM it might be missed \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now the real world works so that UA must rotate its units so there will be low points but something that has delivered steady death over time is the indirect fire and the level is sky-high.<\/p>\n

They have also taken the NS line through Klishchiivka and are widening the breakthrough points at Robotyne and Staromaiorske.
\nAnd they have decimated RU offensive reserves and all units at the active front have been fighting for over two months and are starting to get worn out.<\/p>\n

I guess the heavy lifting is now done but we will see.<\/p>\n

Then at least I see that Russia, which burned 600 tons of grain, which was little compared to the total, is also destroying all infrastructure for loading grain onto ships which effectively prevents transport. You don\u2019t need to stop any ships because it\u2019s impossible to get the grain onto the ships.<\/p>\n

They are deep into the rivers now in SW Ukraine with their missile attacks.
\nThe world yawns and falls asleep again, now the fight will probably be about which words to include in the protest note for a few months and then Putin will get a letter with a polite protest \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1686640684181164032?s=46&t=3tVuQstgYK2b48vQ7AuPfQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Otherwise, it looks good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks for today\u2019s essay!<\/p>\n

Guess it will soon get going.<\/p>\n

Sad that it is so quiet from the West, other than from the UN who embarrass themselves. Starting to wonder if everyone is on vacation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sitting yesterday and remembering an event in another forum at the start of the war. We were talking about \u201csea mines,\u201d there was some English article, and suddenly 5-6 debaters out of maybe fifteen who otherwise had flawless Swedish started talking about \u201cgruvor\u201d \u2013 \u201cYes exactly but why would Russia lay a bunch of mines outside that port, doesn\u2019t seem logical, right.\u201d The only grammatical mistake was the word gruva.<\/p>\n

That signaled that they didn\u2019t know a word of Swedish because then they would have realized their mistake and they wrote several posts where they repeated the same grammatical error.<\/p>\n

At least half were not on the radar as being pro-Russian.<\/p>\n

The Russian subversive tentacles are probably much more widespread than we think \u2013 if you can afford to have paid psyops on obscure Swedish forums you have covered quite a bit of other things as well.<\/p>\n

If only the West could tackle this now and classify all organizations or countries as terrorists so that collaboration or support becomes punishable, it would be appreciated, it is an absolute violation of all forms of democracy which one now has a chance to cut off completely with existing laws.<\/p>\n

I have long thought that cancel culture was perfect for Russian subversive activities to remove obstacles. Then I followed Qanon with growing fascination (half trapped before I managed to break free from the enchantment around all the secret American societies that sacrificed children at Pong-Pizzeria) and one of my main theses was that it was a Russian psyop because in between it was used to save something Russian and I thought that revealed it.<\/p>\n

GeneralSVR has many similarities with Qanon, by the way.<\/p>\n

Those of us who studied the submarine hunts of the 1980s know exactly how they operated in the Baltic Sea and involved various organizations where the whole point was that the West should disarm and Russian rearmament was never mentioned \u2013 it was almost shameful to dare to defend oneself.<\/p>\n

An interesting development is that in the 80s and 90s everyone was convinced that the Russians violated with submarines (because they were the ones violating), but from 2005-2010 and onwards the theory that it was all US psyops and that only the US violated gained such a foothold that it is now considered non-mainstream to believe that it was Russian violations. Popular authors jumped on the bandwagon and it gained serious momentum.<\/p>\n

We managed to prove that U137 could not have been an involuntary violation and the opposing team had wild theories ranging from sea drunkenness and faulty instruments on the boat to the CIA remotely controlling U137 straight onto the shoal.<\/p>\n

All backed by Russian books, Swedish books, Swedish journals, and Swedish researchers.<\/p>\n

That particular discussion died out because they couldn\u2019t torpedo what we had proven, but against us small hobby historians doing our best in the little free time we had, there was (and is) an organization that used every psychological trick in the manual to wear us down so we gave up. Extremely hard not to lose focus.<\/p>\n

Many people suffered mentally and left, I see the same tendencies here, every day we get Russian psyops washing over us and many eventually give up their positive conviction and drop out. For quite a while the trick of starting fights worked, for example, but then the thread learned and was quick, so it has died out.<\/p>\n

Others are to reinforce the hopelessness of the whole war during setbacks and so on. Solros2022 had a good review a few weeks ago and that was one of the tricks you constantly read about on the forums. That mech company that was knocked out and made the rounds was hugely blown up by pro-Russian propaganda.<\/p>\n

Right now the psyops apparently have instructions to portray pro-Ukraine as warmongers and the kill-the-children as evil. In the bigger picture that PerraG55 presents, it fits in but we\u2019ll see, maybe it\u2019s anecdotal so far.<\/p>\n

The worst are those who agree and take the pro-Ukrainian side and are very subtle, creating maximum chaos by fanning the flames on both sides, so one should be wary of those who want Poland to roll over Belarus, that Moscow should be nuked (Grom 2 in the Kremlin is okay!) and so on.<\/p>\n

Then the Russian psyops have probably bitten their own tail a bit without realizing it, I think most who have been in forums where pro-Russian agitators sit and destroy have developed an aversion to Russians in general. That is a very natural reaction when you are attacked daily and it will probably last a long time.<\/p>\n

One last thing \u2013 for me it has been crystal clear since it started that the Quran burnings were connected to the NATO application because Erdogan used it as a reason not to ratify and they burned every time Erdogan had to discuss the issue. Our good Chang became quite worried when it came out that he paid Paludan\u2019s fees but it died down.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m beginning to wonder if the whole Islam vs. Sweden conflict is an opportunity they have identified and will fan in the future. There are well-known connections today between the right wing and RU?<\/p>\n

Highly likely that there are driving forces on the other side as well and religious conflicts are a very easily ignited powder keg, so why would RU miss that chance?<\/p>\n

Then considering Erdogan\u2019s connections to RU and that when emigrants stopped coming from Turkey they tried via Belarus, it is likely also something RU is pushing to destabilize the West.<\/p>\n

About here most who read probably lost interest and parked me in the conspiracy category but if you read up on the Cold War and the RU subversive activities, this is exactly how they operated.<\/p>\n

In West Germany, it was Soviet subversive elements responsible for much of the neo-Nazism, they painted swastikas on synagogues and pushed the neo-Nazi movement so the West believed it was much more widespread than it was \u2013 this has come to light.<\/p>\n

The \u201968 movement and all the anti-USA and anti-imperialism, one hardly needs to doubt who got the rebellious university students going who were furious about Vietnam but couldn\u2019t spell Afghanistan or later Grozny.<\/p>\n

And today Russia is at war with the West so they have presumably activated all the resources they have?<\/p>\n

My conclusion for a long time is that without the Russian subversive activities, the West would be a better place to live.<\/p>\n

Russia is a criminal clan that happens to have a country and instead of creating prosperity, they invest all resources in tearing the West apart.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, UA is definitely building up towards a breakthrough this summer if they manage it, which they will.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Important topic!<\/p>\n

Convinced that they are much more active than one might think, everywhere it is possible to escalate conflicts regardless of whether it concerns Russia or not.<\/p>\n

Sometimes you almost wish it wasn\u2019t possible to be anonymous on social platforms and that everyone was verified (for real). Then it would be much harder to conduct influence operations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If it\u2019s the same sender behind it \u2013 does that mix things up then?<\/p>\n

Do you think the support for Ukraine has been unconditional?
\nIt took a year to get tanks, aircraft have still not arrived after 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

With the support you mention, UA would probably have overrun Russia already?<\/p>\n

Yes, Paludan burned Qurans in Denmark and then came over to Sweden, \u201clong before\u201d was probably within a year?
\nChang who paid his application fees has, as I understand, connections to RU?<\/p>\n

The fact that the West has heavily disarmed, shut down its nuclear power and stopped using fossil fuels while NS1 and NS2 are built for Russian dirty gas that all of Europe has become dependent on and Greenpeace markets Russian dirty gas as environmentally friendly clean gas (forgot the word) has surely had a hell of an impact on our electricity bills?<\/p>\n

The fact that after shutting down their own electricity production they went and bought Russian gas is probably an indication that they had a hand in that game?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

There would have been many Vladimirs then.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:06 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

At least that would have revealed who the Russians were.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Those dots after the greeting made it a bit ambiguous so then everything is as usual.<\/p>\n

Back from vacation a bit early so it became a total crash of this year\u2019s film ending that I have been building up towards for weeks \ud83d\ude2d \u2013 <\/p>\n

since UA is soon going for its breakthrough, the plan was to build up with you sitting and chugging Obolon in the front tank wrapped in the Swedish flag which I have run a couple of times and then when early indication of breakthrough came before it reached the thread, you would send a message \u2013 \u201cTonight the Tanks Roll \ud83d\udc4a\u201d and thus be first with it since you were in the first tank. I\u2019ve had my ear to the ground the last few days so as not to miss it \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Your escapades on vacation have been hysterically funny, it turned into a real thread group project, PerraG55 has even gone looking for you in a truck over by Altai \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:13 \u2013 Johan No.1 UA now seems to have broken through the front line and widened the breakthrough. https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1686314119949938688?s=46&t=w0c42uzWYVSPtmPgx0yieA Perhaps 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