{"id":8102,"date":"2023-08-04T10:27:20","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T08:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:22:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:22:12","slug":"2023-08-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday was a special day, partly because the “fuel riots” have started and then some villain is trying to sue the dredger in something they call “shake downs” down here, so there were many meetings and at the same time I was a bit worried about getting caught up in some lynch mob that, despite the quadrupled gasoline price, would waste a liter on a poor Swede for a firework that brightened up the afternoon. I can calm the thread by saying that I am alive and that we have stocked the house with everything needed for a long siege \u2013 beer and cheese.<\/p>\n

Between the lines, at least I read that progress is being made almost everywhere. That naturally means that Ukrainian soldiers are dying in large numbers and no one wants this war to continue any longer. Sometimes impatience is mistaken for thinking it\u2019s not going as fast as when playing Medal of Honour, but the reason people have started biting their nails is because they want the war to end.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that the Easter eggs have now been activated \u2013 reports about both Horlivka and Vuhledar flew by recently.<\/p>\n

Then there are offensive operations by UA up in northern Luhansk, extent highly unclear.<\/p>\n

There is movement at the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

They are broadening and positioning themselves at the two existing attack vectors on the southern front.<\/p>\n

The northern front and the area between Soledar \u2013 Siversky Donets probably remain to be illuminated.<\/p>\n

Could it be the 10th Army Corps that has now been brought forward and then soon the entire offensive reserve will be activated?<\/p>\n

The endurance of the maneuver brigades, I think the 3rd Assault Brigade has shown us what it is, they have been fighting for almost three months straight and are pushing on.<\/p>\n

That units have reached active fronts does not mean that all brigades at the various fronts are in combat. At Bakhmut, for example, they presumably have at least half remaining and the same at the southern front \u2013 there is still a lot of capacity left.<\/p>\n

The Russians’ 25th Combined Arms Army as a reserve does not seem to exist at present and can be written off.<\/p>\n

However, apparently the Russians are bringing in reserves from OTHER fronts to the southern front, which might explain why there has been movement at Horlivka and Vuhledar?<\/p>\n

If reinforcements are brought in from other fronts, they do not have entire army corps left in Russia to maneuver with. But we already knew that after the Belgorod raids and Wagner’s palace coup \u2013 it was empty.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1687158716485812240?s=46&t=4FMDDnXgjPVkX9oDxC8pBQ<\/a><\/p>\n

According to UA, there are about 150,000 Russians behind the southern front. It is unclear to me if that includes the Dnipro front, but previously the offensive units have been withdrawn from there.<\/p>\n

If you do a quick estimate \u2013 150k at the southern front, 100k at northern Luhansk, 80k at the Bakhmut front and what, under 100k in the darkest Donbass \u2013 Ukraine absolutely has the numbers on its side now. They also have more RU tanks in both quantity and quality and are beginning to gain artillery superiority.<\/p>\n

Since they are also fighting at a numerical disadvantage and inflicting greater losses on RU than they themselves take when on the offensive by using the full range of capabilities, this can only end one way \u2013 a crushing defeat for Putin.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1687065904327065600?s=46&t=4FMDDnXgjPVkX9oDxC8pBQ<\/a><\/p>\n

We have been upset over the West’s sluggishness but one thing should be clear \u2013 this offensive is resourced and will only slow down if the weather forces it to.<\/p>\n

It is probably clear to everyone that the reason it is exploding in Crimea now is because they have finished fighting in the area behind the southern front.<\/p>\n

Then they naturally attack truck convoys from Rostov na Don daily, but the large supplies are no more.<\/p>\n

It is completely incomprehensible to me that Putin et al. do not throw in the towel, but that is probably a Russian trait to drive straight into the wall. Saw that Fram i Natten discussed this in the sauna last night and it was well written \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

It is confirmed that lack of materiel has affected the offensive and that can be translated into tens of thousands of Ukrainians falling because we in the West consider ourselves superior to Ukraine, but we will have to be ashamed after the war.<\/p>\n

This thread has rarely been wrong and right now it is angry at the West and positive about the spring offensive.<\/p>\n

We will also get black on white whether the Azov thrust is enough to end the war, but if it is not, then the darkest Donbass remains because Crimea is impossible to defend and northern Luhansk is ongoing \u2013 my money is on the Azov thrust and Bakhmut being enough but the Russians are seriously unpredictable \u2013 going from party to revolution overnight.<\/p>\n

The tactic Ukraine and the West are probably running is to constantly increase pressure and continue with amplifiers in all areas until something breaks and they have prepared to increase the pressure UNTIL it breaks.<\/p>\n

If you remember Kherson, they starved out the defense until it became untenable and RU did what they are really good at in this war \u2013 retreating in disorder.<\/p>\n

There was a discussion the other day that they released the VDV. It has probably been on the table before and just for my own part I choose not to jump on it until confirmed by Ukraine themselves, but it is a rumor that has been buzzing persistently.<\/p>\n

I think we will see the same phenomenon behind the southern front \u2013 they manage to retreat with most and the (relative) elite units get to retreat first.<\/p>\n

So what gets overrun are the rebels and lots of Storm Z that were forgotten.<\/p>\n

I know there have been different takes on whether Klischiivka has been retaken or not but some say it has and I like positive messages.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/warfrontline\/status\/1687050047463079936?s=46&t=4FMDDnXgjPVkX9oDxC8pBQ<\/a><\/p>\n

And for those who don’t believe UA’s loss figures can be accurate, they confirm here that they knocked out 22 pieces of materiel (could be many categories on the list) at the southern front in one day \u2013 surely MXT’s praised lottery numbers always match, the ones you joyfully wait for every morning and that give peace of mind in how they are formulated.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/flash_news_ua\/status\/1687081904925753344?s=46&t=4FMDDnXgjPVkX9oDxC8pBQ<\/a><\/p>\n

At 19:39 yesterday the blogger posted that UA has now started working on Staromlynivka with suicide drones.<\/p>\n

A theory discussed in the thread is that the Russian attacks at the first contact line have been for the simple reason that it was better than dying from indirect fire in their defensive positions long before they saw the first UA soldier.<\/p>\n

Right or not, we know from countless accounts that a drone group can knock out 6-10 tanks on a night shift (size of drone group unknown but I interpret it as a unit working on a front section type).<\/p>\n

The problem for the Russian team is that when they lie in their fortifications that they have built over about half a year of hardship and whining, they are fixed targets. UA scouts and UA knocks them out \u2013 and it goes fast.<\/p>\n

Therefore, perhaps mobile combat Russian style has been preferable?<\/p>\n

Who knows when it comes to the Russians?<\/p>\n

The other reason that has been raised is simply that they want to project strength and try to talk the West down before everyone sees that it is mine-free and empty in the pits in the rear defense lines.<\/p>\n

RU is currently fighting as if to buy time, that is clear to me, but they have no reinforcements, so it must reasonably be about talking the West down that is on the table?<\/p>\n

That UA reaches Azov during this offensive and that they have cleared the Bakhmut front is clear to me. Now we have been waiting since early June for Russian reinforcements that never come, and they are the only thing that could stop it.<\/p>\n

Then I am actually still of the opinion that UA has denied RU air superiority through LV and then the air force solves its task with drones in this war, but according to today’s Gregg, it seems UA air force is quietly grinding on, which is even better.<\/p>\n

Theories are as many as the participants in the thread as to why RU is not using its air force; a small hint might be that the over 20 AHKP Alligators they mobilized to the southern front when the offensive just started down there were shot down in about two weeks.<\/p>\n

They are simply not prepared to sacrifice this capability, pilots, and planes, because it takes too long to restore.<\/p>\n

Then it is a good guess to think that of all the hundreds of specialized aircraft they have left, a considerable number are grounded with technical faults. Certainly also a shortage of pilots.<\/p>\n

A few nights ago the tanks started rolling and it’s going well \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, it is highly likely that Ukraine is now born as a nation and that in 20 years it will be in eastern Ukraine where they drive Porsches. I’ve thought a lot about that too and they really are a powerhouse.<\/p>\n

Then reasonably a population that has saved a country should be able to make far-reaching demands to curb corruption and other improvements.<\/p>\n

The West just has to make sure post-war that it gives Ukraine a fair chance to approach the EU. They seem to handle security brilliantly themselves. If they get into our free trade and eventually free movement, UA will contribute infinitely more than many other countries in the EU.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If the rumors are true, RU has weakened quiet front sections to reinforce the southern front and maybe Bakhmut?<\/p>\n

If UA had the 10th Army corps in reserve and has now deployed it to some weakened section, there is nothing more for RU to send there.<\/p>\n

The thousand-crown question is when it will break \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I belong to those who believe that RU has already gone all in and has no more reserves to bring forward and that it will break at the southern front and Bakhmut before the offensive has to slow down due to the weather.<\/p>\n

It was unfortunate that they started too late but there is enough time left.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Before the southern front began to be fortified, they apparently mined Kherson incredibly. Then reasonably the old ATO line is also well mined?<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut and northern Luhansk they have probably mined less, and the mining at the northern front seems they have not taken seriously at all.<\/p>\n

At the southern front they have clearly overdone it and yes, I think the interesting question is how the density of the mines looks at depth.<\/p>\n

At the front line, they should reasonably have tried breakthroughs at the points that are not the most well-fortified, it is somewhat in an attacker’s nature not to jump where the defense is strongest, and yet we have seen videos from night vision or whatever where the mines are as deep and dense as possible.<\/p>\n

How many TM46 mines are there in Russia, I couldn’t find that?<\/p>\n

The way RU is fighting right now suggests that they do not have even stronger mining further back, because then they would not have sacrificed all reserves at the front \u2013 they are not fighting according to doctrine.<\/p>\n

We probably won’t know this until UA has broken through, but now the de facto main line is broken so all minefields in that line are obsolete \u2013 Lex the French.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Came home from pizza and beer with colleagues and the family was out for Friday sushi so I watched the below which had already been up.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/youtu.be\/RtezbxukS6A<\/a><\/p>\n

They have an enormous support organization, much better overview than I understood.
\nThese guys can’t lose \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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