{"id":8104,"date":"2023-08-05T08:01:59","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T06:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:22:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:22:38","slug":"2023-08-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday there was a discussion about how many usernames I have here and it\u2019s not more than that I give a bunch of positive comments on my daily posts so I feel they are received appropriately and get a dignified start.
\nThe single most important thing I have taken away since spring is that since early May 2023 Ukraine has constantly retaken land and RU has continuously lost land.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to lose focus and get worried but that\u2019s how it has looked.<\/p>\n

RU has tried counterattacks everywhere with their best forces but they regain nothing, the counterattacks constantly fail.
\nWe know there are no reserves today and that UA now has the advantage in all capabilities and numbers except air power, we know that too.
\nSo there are only two factors that could work in Putin\u2019s favor in this war.<\/p>\n

That he manages to talk the West down and\/or that he carries out a large mobilization in September and manages to resource all reinforced units.<\/p>\n

That would then be something similar to last autumn where the first third was sent directly to the active front and the rest were trained over time.<\/p>\n

It worked last autumn and they felt strong enough to carry out a winter offensive.<\/p>\n

I find it hard to see that RU will carry out a mobilization this autumn worthy of the name and I find it hard to believe that there is equipment for 300,000 \u2013 400,000 new conscripts in all branches.<\/p>\n

Then it really only remains to try to talk the West down and I am quite sure that it is in that light we should see both the winter offensive and the fierce suicide counterattacks that would make Japanese WW2 nostalgics tear up and dream back to bayonet charges over the atolls.<\/p>\n

That is precisely why Putin must lose all hope \u2013 he must feel that it is dark and that the war is going very badly.
\nEven a politician learns early that promises cost nothing, right?<\/p>\n

So why can\u2019t the West announce that WAR-WINNING support package that won\u2019t be needed because Putin throws in the towel as soon as he reads it?<\/p>\n

Why \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

In the subject of strategic communication, this is the strongest thing you can do \u2013 as an example Sweden \u2013 \u201cwe donate all our CV90s, all our Strv122s and 49 JAS39 Gripens. On top of that UA gets all our deployed Archer units. Everything comes with ammunition.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe immediately place an order for new equipment and in the meantime we borrow 300 Abrams from the USA.\u201d<\/p>\n

And so all countries keep outbidding each other and start moving the equipment to collection points and so on.<\/p>\n

Look at this and you see that quite a lot of artillery and other indirect capabilities are fired from Russian territory. If UA could just RAIN long-range fire on them, tens of thousands of civilians would have survived.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/with__ukraine\/status\/1687708764638507008?s=46&t=lNqXWN77tKZ8pKPR11I-hA<\/a><\/p>\n

Something that is often overlooked is that in 2021 Russia made its peace offer for our time \u2013 NATO\u2019s 1997 borders. That also signals what level of ambition they have \u2013 the Baltics for example. They definitely have a diagnosis over there but this is the reality the whole West has to relate to.<\/p>\n

The Russian low point in September 2022 was the first chance to win the war but UA was not prepared for this type of offensive and RU carried out a successful mobilization.<\/p>\n

Well aware that this sets the bar for how we should look ahead, one must still conclude that the chance that the traveling circus will manage to repeat that feat is very small.<\/p>\n

They tried to mobilize 400,000 at the beginning of April this year and got none at all.<\/p>\n

Now T54-55s are coming to the fronts while in September 2022 it was still T80 and T90 on train transports except for those two battalions of T62s we laughed ourselves silly at.<\/p>\n

There is some kind of reversed burden of proof here \u2013 because Ukraine has not yet retaken all its land they cannot win.
\nThey have retaken a full 50% and they have actually already broken the back of the Russian army because the crown jewel in the Russian corpse was the artillery but the afterburner is still running.<\/p>\n

One must perhaps most reluctantly admit that one thing the Russian soldier has been good at \u2013 digging trenches and laying mines.<\/p>\n

There is some risk of overreaction perhaps since all formal information is that UA\u2019s 10-point list is all that should be discussed but all warning bells ring around that peace meeting in Saudi Arabia that is going on now \u2013 RU is trying to talk the West down and is sacrificing absolutely ALL capabilities they have to not give up a single meter. They are trying to buy time.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1687453924859486209?s=46&t=W0QZE92cvXx99UlvFXmT6A<\/a><\/p>\n

But since they have no reserves, my bet is that they are trying to talk the West down and this peace meeting is dangerously close in time here so unfortunately it fits into the bigger picture even though RU is not invited.
\nWe\u2019ll see\u2026<\/p>\n

I hope for my own health that Russia does not manage to talk the West down here.<\/p>\n

The other problem is that Zelensky et.al. are constantly looking towards Western support and demanding the impossible from the army to not lose that support \u2013 Ukrainian soldiers are dying completely unnecessarily.<\/p>\n

I hope I am completely wrong and that this will become the mother ship of all strategic communication that makes Putin whimper quietly and limp back to the bedroom but one is highly suspicious after 1.5 years of bad decisions.<\/p>\n

We are absolutely at a turning point here, Russian capability is declining and UA has not yet committed all offensive reserves.
\nThe condition of Russian soldiers taken prisoner is very poor \u2013 lowest possible combat value and more of a trauma victim needing care than a soldier.<\/p>\n

The walls of the Russian pressure cooker must be bulging strongly outward.<\/p>\n

On the battlefield it is very clear that they act like they are buying time and the end date is not far away reasonably with the rate they are now losing soldiers and equipment and that the Ukrainian offensive came right in their low point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

All wars are different and whoever does not adapt quickly loses. We can probably assume that many clever senior officers and analysts from the USA and EU have helped Ukraine to the best possible offensive they can carry out with the resources they have.<\/p>\n

You surely remember the often recurring discussion that Ukrainian soldiers do not fight well, are not trained and all that?<\/p>\n

There was a Finnish officer and then a Swedish one with a good reputation who trained Ukrainian soldiers and who were not merciful in their criticism.<\/p>\n

My opinion is that it is the world\u2019s best infantry but it just becomes a circular discussion when people who are officers and not sitting in their parents\u2019 basement playing Medal of Honour claim the opposite.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we came home after a tidy pizza and beer, and the family had a sushi night, so WhatsApp was quiet and I managed to watch that 30-minute film from Azov when they clear trench systems in Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

I myself had not understood how digitized they were even though we had received that information \u2013 one to two attacking rifle squads and a battalion staff (well) that have real-time information and control the groups on the ground with access to all indirect capabilities almost in real time.<\/p>\n

The two groups probably took a couple of lightly wounded and knocked out dozens of defenders.<\/p>\n

3rd Assault Brigade Azov is a newly formed unit but consists of many experienced soldiers from Azov and those “storm brigades” only accepted applications with combat experience on the CV.<\/p>\n

There should be about 50 more brigades that can fight in the same way and especially the mechanized brigades have more support from armored vehicles.<\/p>\n

For me, that film puts an end to the whole discussion, we once had a successful defensive battle with a few groups that held up a battalion in channeling terrain through fire and movement towards the end of my very short career in the 90s and in the end they were overrun.<\/p>\n

To be able day after day to retake trench systems while being numerically inferior against a qualified opponent, I don’t think we were even close. The armored infantry expected quite large losses in such attacks and it was three against one that applied, not attacking while numerically inferior.<\/p>\n

I know I’m late to this film but if you’re a doubter, watch the whole thing and come over to the bright and much more fun side.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/RtezbxukS6A<\/a><\/p>\n

And above all \u2013 this is the type of combat UA is now conducting where RU continuously takes significantly higher losses, it works and NATO would absolutely not have been magnitudes better.<\/p>\n

I want to take the opportunity to warn about a new Russian psyops that I have not yet understood the extent of.<\/p>\n

Wagner is moving in Belarus and there are provocations while very subtly sending out that Poland and the Baltics are mobilizing near the border.<\/p>\n

It is clearly to lay the groundwork for an escalation but the purpose is not clear to me.<\/p>\n

Maybe they bomb their own cities in Belarus and present evidence that it was Poland or the Baltics, who knows?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/henrywhitworth9\/status\/1687450658763399168?s=46&t=lNqXWN77tKZ8pKPR11I-hA<\/a><\/p>\n

It was no cheerful occasion when Shoigu visited the front.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ralee85\/status\/1687483050433589248?s=46&t=W0QZE92cvXx99UlvFXmT6A<\/a><\/p>\n

Got a WhatsApp from a friend in Altai who worriedly wondered why China stopped exporting drones to him.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1687637821878595584?s=46&t=lNqXWN77tKZ8pKPR11I-hA<\/a><\/p>\n

Now we’ve been saying for a couple of days that “tonight the tanks roll \u270a” and it certainly seems to be true, if you are at the famous line in the middle now it will be very interesting to see both how it is defended and how the minefields look.<\/p>\n

I still hear nothing about reserves or reinforcements for the Russian circus but on the other hand a lot more about the front line now being obsolete, Lex the French, so there might be some movement on the southern front soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Since basically everyone has gone out and said that they will support Ukraine as long as needed, I think they realize they have to do it too. Otherwise, they will lose all credibility. The problem is of course the level and speed of the support.<\/p>\n

If it ends, for example, with us in Sweden sending food packages and wool socks, that would be tragic.<\/p>\n

I agree that it is time for everyone to go out and promise and give even more to show Russia that they have no chance. If the war ends, it’s just a matter of bringing home what hasn’t been used (sure, there is of course a risk that some might disappear, but you don’t just make Archer and CV90 vanish).<\/p>\n

\/ Sent from Johan No.1’s account no. 039.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Note!! The last line was not supposed to be included, forget you saw it!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dCan only agree!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Damn, now it’s revealed what we do on the site \ud83d\ude10 Hope Dengamle takes a day off.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Let me clarify \u2013 the warning was directed at us so we don’t think it’s super good that Poland and the Baltics mobilize and post that information in our channels and reinforce the Russian psyops and message.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, it’s the kind of thing we like to hear and gladly discuss but in this case it is targeted information with a purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Can’t decide if it’s double-edged or not because of a few weeks ago but choose to in good faith interpret it as it is written \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jake Broe also talks with that Thai guy whose posts I steal and it was the Thai guy who was first with that theory.<\/p>\n

There aren’t really many alternatives, others are that they should have time to bring up reserves but they have none to send so almost only talking the West down remains.<\/p>\n

They have probably understood by now that they can’t talk Ukraine down but they have tried very intensively to do so. Zelensky surrounds himself with a good staff and the military leaders stand firm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

And now it probably also came out how many accounts I write under here in the thread \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

No double meaning!\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA is starving out the Russians now, the Ropucha are used for maintenance and probably the oil tanker too?<\/p>\n

They are slowly knocking out the Crimean Bridge and the land bridge down to Crimea.<\/p>\n

They blow up every depot they find down in Crimea because everyone has been moved there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Not fun for the logistics managers in Russia..\ud83d\ude04<\/p>\n

Can you imagine there is a high consumption of antidepressants and sedatives among them?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Link between FSB and AfD to try to undermine support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/john_a_ridge\/status\/1687856195279708160?s=46&t=rNVIDCyRg0VAs5GNd-dTcA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The ruble over 100 dollars<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1687514620460748802?s=46&t=201D2z76BqFf8Fjyw4V4NQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Just two beers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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