{"id":8114,"date":"2023-08-09T10:24:48","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T08:24:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-09-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:25:21","slug":"2023-08-09-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-09-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Have to start by saying that today’s analysis was posted by Erik14 \u2013 very nice \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The other day you put your foot down regarding UA reported losses and if anyone thought that Erik14 just reposts what the rest of us miss that is all the relevant stuff then this is now analysis of a higher school. Not just Oscar-winning films like “15 seconds of diesel smoke” then \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Below I have written this before I read through the thread and I post it anyway but please don’t be too hard on me because I had a really slow meeting with the client today and they have mixed up the plan for the dredging plant so much that the contractor was crying under the table.<\/p>\n

Someone has calculated that UA has about 80% of the western equipment left after months of offensive.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1688590363613708294?s=46&t=C6FqklLQbaTWbsCc87xKkA<\/a><\/p>\n

I saw that “someone” wrote “even a chicken \ud83d\ude28” regarding crossing the Dnipro. This someone also denies operation Badanka despite overwhelming evidence posted in the thread.<\/p>\n

The spring his highness Erik14 refers to is the battle plans presented in full before or after Christmas and that is what the discussions mostly revolve around \u2013 it is the reference point. I also think it’s really fun that you actually remember it and also use it as a reference point \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The idea was that in connection with offensive operations on the southern front to open a flank threat by crossing infantry in suitable locations over to the left bank of the Dnipro which had to defend under its own artillery umbrella.<\/p>\n

The oracle MXT is probably right that the sequence in the big campaign plan was not followed, the offensive on the southern front has lasted longer than I thought. In my defense, they are completely hopeless at following instructions\u2026<\/p>\n

I see this as different army corps and fronts having windows to relate to because there is reconnaissance, pre-attack suppression, mine clearance and resource allocation that must take place before advancing.<\/p>\n

RU would then be forced onto the highway and band away to the threat and try to eliminate it at astronomical losses.
\nIt was after the Davydiv Brid miracle that we realized they would probably continue their winning streak.<\/p>\n

At the time we thought of the opposite bank from Nikopol and identified good defensive positions.<\/p>\n

The reasoning around Khakovka was that it is just fields after the buildings so it might be difficult to widen the bridgehead.<\/p>\n

Unclear what we said down south but since early spring when we understood that UA had a bridgehead south of the Antonovsky bridge the thoughts were that the area around Antonovsky offers cover and is very suitable for a bridgehead.<\/p>\n

First of all, UA has now achieved what was perhaps then a partial goal \u2013 it projects a threat on the flank of the entire southern front. That is where we are now.<\/p>\n

We have known for a few months that RU has pulled most of the offensive reserves from the Dnipro front and yesterday the oracle MXT posted that they recently pulled away even more VDV.<\/p>\n

There are probably some suitable units for raids across the river and there are also a couple of elite brigades in the area.
\nThe whole procedure now signals that they are not defensive, they are offensive.<\/p>\n

If an opportunity arises they will probably push towards Crimea, I would have done that, to project a threat of a cut-off retreat route and hope for mass flight from the southern front.<\/p>\n

What the Russians SHOULD do is defend the bridges down to Crimea and then go into horseshoe defense behind the southern front.<\/p>\n

The problem for them is if Ukraine reaches Azov somewhere then all units west of the wedge are effectively cut off from retreat.<\/p>\n

But they would have had more units on less area to be able to continue their defense for a longer time.<\/p>\n

RU has already prepared a NS line through Melitopol so that idea naturally already exists.<\/p>\n

Now they have achieved the goal we probably thought \u2013 to project a threat on the flank that RU must respond to.<\/p>\n

If they can push forward they will surely do so \u2013 UA are a bit like geniuses when it comes to seizing opportunities on the fly.<\/p>\n

Everyone has probably read about all the Leo1s coming now and the good news is that they come with the whole upgrade package.
\nIt was nagging a bit when it was mentioned that they would send existing ones but now they have thought it through and it will be new fire control systems and lots of other cool stuff.<\/p>\n

With good ammunition they are probably as deadly as a rattlesnake.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that in total it was a bit over 150 Leo 1?
\nThen we have the Israeli Merkava tanks on top of that, 100.<\/p>\n

Bulgaria has also started to deliver and they have huge amounts of eastern equipment.<\/p>\n

If one guesses, these upgrades are ongoing most of the time and big plus to the West for doing them before sending.<\/p>\n

Yes, I wonder if Ukraine now also has a lot of vehicles to cannibalize so they can steal a turret from a BMP 2-3 and put it on a nice BMP-1 chassis for example?<\/p>\n

We also know that workshops all over Eastern Europe have been helping to service UA equipment for some time.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is supposed to get 2000 APCs and 3000 anti-tank guided missiles \u2013 an enormous amount.
\nTanks 800.<\/p>\n

We already knew early spring that Ukraine is largely mechanized now that the home guard got BMP-1.<\/p>\n

A reflection I had yesterday when I saw a film from the beginning of the war was how enormously many field-trained soldiers there are today. It is a different army and they have trained the soldiers well.<\/p>\n

I believe the Ukrainian army today is significantly stronger than in February 2022.<\/p>\n

That they have managed to decimate Russian artillery from 20-30:1 down to 1:1 is nothing less than sensational.<\/p>\n

Because that is how it looks on many front sections now and then the Russians cannot handle counter-battery fire so it is an even bigger advantage for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then we have the drone weapon \u2013 when we get the numbers one realizes that a drone company can take out 6-10 hard vehicles in one night shift, completely speechless \ud83d\ude2e<\/p>\n

The spring offensive is grinding on \u2013 the southern front commander will soon have to choose between the southern front or the Dnipro front is a reasonable guess?<\/p>\n

At Staromaiorske they are working down towards Staromlynivka and then there is the main defense line and empty behind.
\nIf we don\u2019t see a larger RU mobilization soon (which we won\u2019t) it\u2019s game over.<\/p>\n

It also seems accepted that China communicated in the meeting in Saudi Arabia that it is Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity that applies, nothing else.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t know if you have read that China is heading into recession so they are probably being very careful not to provoke the West right now \u2013 my guess.<\/p>\n

Anyone with information to the contrary?<\/p>\n

I’ve damn well stopped answering all WhatsApp messages from my lonely friend in Altai, completely desperate and it\u2019s no longer fun because he is inconsolable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Have to start by saying that today’s analysis was posted by Erik14 \u2013 very nice \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The other day you put your foot down regarding UA reported losses, and if anyone thought that Erik14 just reposts what the rest of us miss, which is all the relevant stuff, then this is probably now analysis of the higher school. Not just Oscar-winning films like \u201c15 seconds of diesel smoke\u201d then \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Below I have written this before I read through the thread and I\u2019m posting it anyway, but please don\u2019t be too hard on me because I had a really tough meeting with the client today and they have messed up the plan for the dredging plant so much that the contractor was crying under the table.<\/p>\n

Someone has calculated that UA has about 80% of the western equipment left after months of offensive.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1688590363613708294?s=46&t=C6FqklLQbaTWbsCc87xKkA<\/a><\/p>\n

I saw that \u201csomeone\u201d wrote \u201ceven a chicken \ud83d\ude28\u201d regarding the crossing of the Dnipro. This someone also denies operation Badanka despite overwhelming evidence posted in the thread.<\/p>\n

The spring His Highness Erik14 refers to is the battle plans that were presented in full before or after Christmas and that is what the discussions mostly revolve around \u2013 it is the reference point. I also think it\u2019s really fun that you actually remember it and also use it as a reference point \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The idea was that in connection with offensive operations on the southern front to open a threat on the flank by crossing infantry in suitable locations over to the left bank of the Dnipro, which would have to defend itself under its own artillery umbrella.<\/p>\n

The oracle MXT is probably right that the sequence in the big campaign plan was not followed, the offensive on the southern front has lasted longer than I thought. In my defense, they are completely hopeless at following instructions\u2026<\/p>\n

I see this as different army corps and fronts having windows to relate to because it\u2019s reconnaissance, pre-attack, mine clearance and resource allocation that must be done before moving forward.<\/p>\n

RU would then be forced onto the highway and band away to the threat and try to eliminate it at astronomical losses.
\nIt was after the Davydiv Brid miracle that we realized they would probably continue their winning streak.<\/p>\n

At the time we thought of the opposite bank from Nikopol and identified good defensive positions.<\/p>\n

The reasoning around Khakovka was that it\u2019s just fields after the settlement so maybe difficult to widen the bridgehead.<\/p>\n

Unclear what we said down south but since early spring when we understood that UA had a bridgehead south of the Antonovsky bridge, thoughts were around the fact that the area around Antonovsky has cover and is very suitable for a bridgehead.<\/p>\n

Firstly, UA has now achieved what was perhaps then a partial goal \u2013 it projects a threat on the flank of the entire southern front. That\u2019s where we are now.<\/p>\n

We have known for a few months that RU has withdrawn most of the offensive reserves from the Dnipro front and yesterday the oracle MXT posted that they recently withdrew even more VDV.<\/p>\n

There are probably some suitable units for raids across the river and there are also a couple of elite brigades in the area.
\nThe whole procedure now signals that they are not defensive, they are offensive.<\/p>\n

If an opportunity arises, they will probably push towards Crimea, that\u2019s what I would have done, to project a threat of a cut-off retreat route and hope for a mass flight from the southern front.<\/p>\n

What the Russians SHOULD do is defend the bridges down to Crimea and then go into a horseshoe defense behind the southern front.<\/p>\n

The problem for them is if Ukraine gets down to Azov somewhere, then all units west of the wedge are effectively cut off from retreat.<\/p>\n

But they would have gotten more units on less area to be able to continue their defense for a longer time.<\/p>\n

RU has already prepared an NS line through Melitopol so that idea obviously already exists.<\/p>\n

Now they have achieved the goal we probably thought \u2013 to project a threat on the flank that RU must respond to.<\/p>\n

If they can push forward they will surely do so \u2013 UA are a bit of geniuses when it comes to seizing opportunities on the fly.<\/p>\n

Everyone has probably read about all the Leo1s coming now and the good news is that they come with the whole upgrade package.
\nIt was nagging a bit when it was mentioned that they would send existing ones but now they have thought it through and it will be new fire control systems and lots of other cool stuff.<\/p>\n

With good ammunition they are probably as deadly as a rattlesnake.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that in total there were well over 150 Leo 1s?
\nThen we have the Israeli Merkava tanks on top of that, 100 units.<\/p>\n

Bulgaria has also started to release equipment and they have enormous amounts of eastern materiel.<\/p>\n

If one guesses, these upgrades are ongoing most of the time and big credit to the West for carrying them out before sending.<\/p>\n

Yes, I wonder if Ukraine now also has a lot of vehicles to cannibalize so they can steal a turret from a BMP 2-3 and put it on a decent BMP-1 chassis for example?<\/p>\n

We also know that workshops throughout Eastern Europe have been helping to service UA materiel for some time.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is supposed to receive 2000 APCs and 3000 anti-tank guided missiles \u2013 an enormous amount.
\nTanks 800 units.<\/p>\n

We already knew early spring that Ukraine is largely mechanized now that the home guard got BMP-1s.<\/p>\n

A reflection I made yesterday when I saw a film from the beginning of the war was how enormously many field-trained soldiers there are today. It is a different army and they have trained the soldiers well.<\/p>\n

I believe the Ukrainian army today is significantly stronger than in February 2022.<\/p>\n

The fact that they have managed to decimate Russian artillery from 20-30:1 down to 1:1 is nothing less than sensational.<\/p>\n

Because that\u2019s how it looks on many front sections now and then the Russians can\u2019t handle counter-battery fire so it\u2019s an even bigger advantage for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then we have the drone weapon \u2013 when we get the numbers you realize that a drone company can take out 6-10 hard vehicles on a night shift, completely speechless \ud83d\ude2e<\/p>\n

The spring offensive is chugging along \u2013 the southern front commander will soon have to choose between the southern front or the Dnipro front is probably a reasonable guess?<\/p>\n

At Staromaiorske they are working down towards Staromlynivka and then there is the main defense line and empty behind.
\nIf we don\u2019t see a bigger RU mobilization soon (which we won\u2019t) it\u2019s game over.<\/p>\n

It also seems accepted that China communicated at the meeting in Saudi Arabia that it is Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity that applies, nothing else.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t know if you\u2019ve read that China is heading into recession so they are probably very careful about provoking the West right now \u2013 my guess.<\/p>\n

Anyone with information to the contrary?<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve damn well stopped answering all WhatsApp messages from my lonely friend in Altai, completely desperate and it\u2019s no longer fun because he is inconsolable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks for a nice positive current situation analysis!<\/p>\n

Most things are going roughly according to your big campaign plan but with some smaller adjustments and a slightly lower tempo but the most important thing is the end result and that\u2019s where we will end up in the end!<\/p>\n

Regarding China, I saw something about one of the biggest real estate giants, Country Garden, which was actually the largest before, having trouble with payments. They now have a 30-day deadline, but as it has looked for other real estate companies, they have done the same and then it has ended in the basement. So I do not disagree but agree when it comes to China’s economic situation.<\/p>\n

It can very well end in a huge real estate crash, and since real estate\/apartments have been what the Chinese have almost entirely focused on regarding private investments, it can end in anything.
\nThere were riots earlier in China when some discovered that their money had suddenly just disappeared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

When the real estate sector collapses, the house of cards will probably fall, feels irreversible if their Freddie Mae and Fanny Mach have existential problems \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The multipolar world seems to have big problems right now.<\/p>\n

Yep, they kidnapped the CEO and besieged the headquarters \u2013 they can get quite violent when they get scammed.<\/p>\n

In our projects, salaries sometimes failed to be paid and the entire management had to hide until they were paid out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 Have to start by saying that today’s analysis was posted by Erik14 \u2013 very nice \ud83d\udc4d 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