{"id":8126,"date":"2023-08-14T10:16:49","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T08:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-14-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:27:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:27:06","slug":"2023-08-14-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-14-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

At Urozhaine, it was a display of fleeing from the Russians, nothing was organized.
\nWe have discussed for quite a while how UA can roll up community after community along that attack vector, and Accentmannen usually shows this in his videos, so now it will probably be a flank attack as usual against Pryutne and Novodonetske.
\nI thought I heard that UA had retaken Novodonetske, but now it is quiet again?<\/p>\n

Ukraine is currently building a very broad breakthrough.<\/p>\n

According to the previous campaign plan, territorial troops would go into flank defense and maneuver brigades would go deep so they are not decimated when they constantly have to detach units for flank defense.<\/p>\n

You have to see the choice of breakthrough point and width in light of that \u2013 dominant terrain and communities that territorial troops can defend to the West and East.<\/p>\n

The deeper UA gets, the greater the risk of counterattacks further north on the sides of the breakthrough.
\nThen the artillery has to come along, the logistics have to come along, and so on \u2013 no easy task.<\/p>\n

In order not to become a target in every bush, the breakthrough needs to have a large width, which it has now.
\nLooks good thus.<\/p>\n

The Russians don’t have much choice here, they must defend at the Dnipro front, at Vasylivka, at Robotyne, and at Staromlynivka because a breakthrough at any of those places would lead to the entire southern front collapsing, Lex the French.<\/p>\n

During the retreat from Urozhaine, they had no heavy vehicles left, which was perhaps a bit unfortunate because if they had driven backward, Ukraine would have immediately known where the mines were not.<\/p>\n

Now it seems Wargonzo has risen from the dead or maybe it’s his buddies managing the Twitter account who wrote that Ukraine has now passed through most of the minefields at Staromaiorske.
\nThat’s probably what we guessed earlier, that the density was greatest at the front.<\/p>\n

Something we also saw was that BMP-1 they drove to test the tank ditch \u2013 it drove over an entire field without hitting any mines.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has now passed through this entire enormous mine line in at least two places, so it is soon obsolete and behind them.<\/p>\n

We previously speculated about the weaknesses in the defense and one is absolutely that as soon as UA breaks through at one point, the rest of that line is obsolete regardless of how well built and mined it is.<\/p>\n

Since the Russians have fortified themselves, the next weakness is what we have also guessed a lot about, that they cannot man all the fortifications.<\/p>\n

What everyone thinks is the Russians’ great strength \u2013 enormous fortifications \u2013 is actually their great weakness. It gives them a false sense of security and locks all units into fixed positions that Ukraine can scout and take out with long-range weapons.
\nThey had it quite easy when they had the initiative and for a very long time they also felt they did not need to defend their side of the northern border, which is remarkable.<\/p>\n

One brigade forward, decimated to zero, rotated out and then the next in \u2013 the Russian version of offensive and very simple warfare.<\/p>\n

During the winter offensive, they took the initiative and Ukraine remained passive, so even there they had it quite calm, it doesn’t take much to send a brigade to death and repeat the week after.<\/p>\n

This defensive battle is everything they cannot handle, dynamic warfare, parrying quick maneuvers, and so on \u2013 they are simply terrible at it.<\/p>\n

The southern front commander probably has freedom of action regarding that area and he has chosen to defend the southern front at the expense of the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

However, he does not seem to be able to get reserves from other fronts and if you ask, you get fired by Gerasimov.<\/p>\n

The Bakhmut front seems to have priority as it is constantly reinforced, now they have rotated in new units and this is the 5th-6th time since offensive operations began around Bakhmut.
\nBakhmut feels like it has a special status so that Ukraine making a thing of “fortress Bakhmut” was the higher school of cunning.<\/p>\n

If reinforcements do not arrive in large numbers to the southern front, it is well on its way to falling \u2013 all it takes is a breakthrough down to Azov for all units west of the breakthrough to start looking towards the land bridge down to Crimea.<\/p>\n

If you look at the unit maps, there are very many units with thousands in the designation \u2013 2634 rifle battalion at the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line for example.
\nI have understood that these are new composite units from different regiments that have been decimated so heavily that they were dissolved and they seem to be battalion strength?
\nEach unit map has a large pool of RU regiments they do not know where they are \u2013 probably knocked out and then the surviving trauma patients have been transferred to this new type of unit.
\nThey probably don’t trust each other and have seen their own unit destroyed so they must have nerves on edge and jump at the slightest sound.
\nThese composite battalions exist in large numbers and should have low combat value.<\/p>\n

I keep an eye on this every day and am equally wrong every day \ud83d\ude00
\nAt some point, Russian artillery at the southern front will get orders to fire all ammunition and they will blast away for a few days before they retreat.
\nTrying thus completely unscientifically to figure out when we have reached that point by seeing if the intensity of shelling against civilian communities increases sharply.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_world\/status\/1690996616818282496?s=46&t=4AtWDvI1FPj2bi8I_8CWHg<\/a><\/p>\n

As a counterargument to Cvejman’s proposal that Ukraine should give up land, I post this which is hard reading, little girls who get their genitals irreparably damaged by rapes \ud83e\udd2c
\nThat Ukraine takes a single prisoner of war is disciplined, they all know what happens to their population.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JayinKyiv\/status\/1690995104016646145?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Now the defenders of Zavitne-Bashannia will discover the hard way that buildings are terrible to set up their defense in. Since the settlement lies parallel to a watercourse, they have of course built their firing positions in all the buildings.<\/p>\n

Then of course they will approach Staromlynivka from three sides so it is also completely untenable for any longer time.
\nIt might move quickly down there now and then we know how well fortified and well built the main defense line is which according to the maps lies a bit south of Staromlynivka.<\/p>\n

If one guesses, the weak point is that UA can continue in a SE direction along the communities but we shall see.
\nAs soon as you get into that line, you can start rolling it up from the sides.<\/p>\n

It took me quite a while to understand the choice of breakthrough point and it was probably not until the fortification map with scrollable Google that one could start to form a better opinion.<\/p>\n

It is one of the weaker points and there is an advance in the sky along the communities that takes UA straight into and through the main defense line \u2013 a well-chosen place for a breakthrough.<\/p>\n

The other point that looked promising was east of Vuhledar and to go in a SE direction but then you were also close to the city of Donetsk and the defense there.<\/p>\n

It is possible that they chose the place because they know that the responsibility lies entirely with the southern front command and the chance that they get reinforcements is smaller, who knows?<\/p>\n

We have often discussed this, that it is in the attacker’s nature to try to break through at a weak point and that they always exist. Seems to be true.<\/p>\n

This looks very good, positive-positive applies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I DON’T THINK they are built as isolated fortifications with surrounding defenses and overlapping fields of fire.<\/p>\n

I’ve gotten the impression that they often run east-west with defenses to the north.<\/p>\n

Previously, Ukraine has operated parallel along the defense systems on both sides and poured in fire, and that’s kind of how I think you do when you start rolling them up \u2013 you come from the direction you haven’t prepared defenses against.<\/p>\n

Here, for example, you can see how it is built.
\nhttps:\/\/apps.sentinel-hub.com\/eo-browser\/?zoom=15&lat=47.63964&lng=36.85463&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-04-26T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-26T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=1.2&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22<\/a><\/p>\n

Seems to be a bit of everything in that line, actually.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d <\/p>\n

Perfect that the Russians are sacrificing everything to defend Bakhmut and I hope they continue and intensify the counterattacks at Klischchiivka.<\/p>\n

When they have finally emptied the last they have and Ukraine can retake the city and put pressure down towards Horlivka… Maybe that alone will be enough for the wind to go out of their sails completely… (The pro-Russian military bloggers will probably give up anyway \ud83d\ude42)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a long way to go but as we have seen, the Russians are good at running when it finally breaks!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The interesting thing about war crimes is that they really have no consequences at all, a bit like “laws are only for those who follow them”.<\/p>\n

That Sweden does not have cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons is unwise. They should exist but require government decisions and an escalation ladder for deployment or similar. Bomb capsule 90 or whatever it was called.<\/p>\n

We may not need to go as far as poison gas but now we see what capability increase Ukraine got with the cluster munitions and they have fought 1.5 years without it. Imagine if they had thermobaric weapons, bunker busters and thermite just as they are about to throw themselves over the main line?<\/p>\n

We can be absolutely sure that the peace movement, the environmental movement, save the minks and everyone else will go to physical confrontations over Sweden having to ban autonomous suicide drones in the future.<\/p>\n

Those that are ten centimeters and against soft targets with 50g explosive power and released in large swarms by mother drones \u2013 there will constantly be new angles on why it must be banned while Russia and China build millions and the only thing the West can try to do is find defensive countermeasures against them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, Horlivka is exciting if they can come straight from the north after they have gone through the next line.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Russia was weak when this war started so to consider it an early intervention really?
\nThen there are no thoughts from the West to keep the conflict alive in any way, it is a black-and-white conflict.<\/p>\n

IF China goes out and starts delivering offensive weapons and training then we are in a situation where the conflict risks becoming prolonged.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, Russia has a month to get corps reinforcements down to the southern front or it\u2019s over for the area behind the southern front and in the long run Crimea which is impossible to supply.<\/p>\n

Then remains northern Luhansk and the darkest Donbass if Putin wants to continue fighting with his heavily decimated army against a Ukraine that has just freed up 30 brigades from the southern front.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1 At Urozhaine, it was a display of fleeing from the Russians, nothing was organized. 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