{"id":8132,"date":"2023-08-17T09:53:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T07:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:27:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:27:45","slug":"2023-08-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday the 82nd brigade came with their Challengers to the southern front if anyone now thinks that Ukraine is not going all in here.<\/p>\n

We have discussed quite a bit that instead of 1-2 breakthrough attempts, Ukraine is focusing on more at the southern front to force RU to spread out.<\/p>\n

They have not only done that, which we have also discussed before, because they have forced RU to massively reinforce the Bakhmut front through their offensive and then they keep the pressure up between N Vuhledar \u2013 Horkivka to tie down RU units.<\/p>\n

I also don’t think RU can really pull much away from northern Luhansk even if they go on the defense.<\/p>\n

The Russian army in Ukraine is now locked at their respective front sections and UA has an offensive reserve left that they can choose to deploy at a suitable place \u2013 popularly called an Easter egg.<\/p>\n

There is no doubt that Ukraine is going all-in here and in the long run they will of course not pause halfway for a little juice break \u2013 they understand just like everyone else that if you have managed to wear down the Russians this much, you have to keep the pressure up until it breaks.<\/p>\n

Now there is such an unconfirmed rumor that it can hardly be called a rumor that RU would abandon the foremost line for the main line.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/malcontentmentt\/status\/1692080746243174723?s=46&t=y4A3mY4pMDV2WLWEF52XrQ<\/a><\/p>\n

The two things that should happen are that they abandon the Dnipro front and then mainly the frontline at the southern front to free up units to man the second line and main line (or however one should describe all the lines…).<\/p>\n

In the end, it is two armies facing each other trying to wear down and outsmart the opponent.<\/p>\n

They adapt to the situation, bring in new capabilities, and try to get inside the opponent’s decision cycle.<\/p>\n

I was a bit surprised that RU had so much undamaged indirect capacity at the southern front but UA has now for several months ground down both the weapon platforms and then also the logistics and maintenance.<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, RU already had poor artillery at the start of the UA offensive and in northern Luhansk it seems they have been saving capability.<\/p>\n

The point is that already this spring RU did not have artillery superiority at all fronts and now it is UA who has the advantage except up in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

RU alligator-AHkps get shot down as soon as they show themselves and now RU is desperate enough to send them forward again.
\nRU air force stays away except up in northern Luhansk it seems?<\/p>\n

That Ukraine is beginning to gain a strategic advantage I think is indisputable, that the southern front and Dnipro front are bulging dangerously inward is also clear.<\/p>\n

The only thing they can pull out of the hat are empty threats or a general mobilization.<\/p>\n

No one listens to the empty threats anymore and they dare not mobilize the masses because then there will be a revolution. Wagner has already marched towards Moscow and in Belarus it almost tipped over.<\/p>\n

And in Ukraine a people’s revolution has already succeeded.<\/p>\n

It can therefore only go one way here since the Russian side reaches exhaustion and poor combat value before Ukraine does, a bit like two boxers where one starts to get tired and holds his gloves at shoulder height.<\/p>\n

Overall it is excellently fought by Ukraine, they keep the pressure up everywhere so they lock Russian reserves and then for over a year while defending have built up a large offensive reserve and strike at RU\u2019s low point.<\/p>\n

The Russians and apologists can dream of a prolonged conflict that Putin can handle endlessly but they will not get that. With this pressure now applied on all fronts it will break because it has done so historically several times in this war.<\/p>\n

When this war is over the losses will surprise everyone, partly Ukrainian civilian losses, then their military and not least the Russians’. I don’t think David D was that far off when he summed up the total of all weapon types, maybe 300,000 \u2013 400,000 too high?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Regarding 10:19 and night fighting capability it was something often discussed during 2022 but much less this year.
\nWe saw deliveries of 20,000 image intensifiers and that all Eastern armor from the EU had thermal sights and so on.<\/p>\n

We speculated that UA would use night fighting to a large extent to advance but that it would be too difficult during the actual breakthroughs with all the mines.<\/p>\n

We have seen them clear mines at night, we know that SOF sleeps during the day and strangles Russians at night so why wouldn\u2019t the maneuver brigades also manage night fighting?<\/p>\n

Lying there trying to hit someone with an RPG under a spotlight is not the easiest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Nice, everything is going according to plan! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yesterday the 82nd brigade came with their Challengers to the southern front if anyone now thinks 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