{"id":8144,"date":"2023-08-23T08:43:10","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T06:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:29:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:29:39","slug":"2023-08-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There has been quite a bit of bilge pumping but now it is starting to stabilize, went and measured the small wheel tracks and will investigate this misdeed further.<\/p>\n

Something that has completely tipped over, however, is that the media uncritically reproduces the Russian narrative and continues to draw their own conclusions from it.<\/p>\n

Then it doesn’t help that pro-Ukrainian debaters get colored and enter with legitimate criticism that the West has sent too few weapons because it only reinforces the message right now, they didn’t succeed at the right time and place.<\/p>\n

We have long argued in the thread that the West has only sent just enough for Ukraine to stay afloat and that it has been too little, too late.<\/p>\n

David D also believes that the US is “slowwalking” its aid to Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1693635540938039356?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

It flew by this morning but I lost the link that the Netherlands promised to send “remote mine clearance equipment.” I interpreted it as top-shelf mine clearance equipment that is better than the mine rollers.
\nNever good to get high blood pressure before breakfast but why the hell doesn’t the West send its best mine clearance equipment to Ukraine and why haven’t they already sent it?
\nDoes Ukraine have to get stuck in minefields for months before they react?
\nMine clearance equipment is certainly not needed for most countries’ defense, to name a few \u2013 UK, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, and France.
\nIf they have some kind of super-efficient mine clearance platforms, they should have already sent them, anything else is almost too stupid to bother thinking about.<\/p>\n

The above is not the same as saying that Ukraine cannot win the war or is losing on the battlefield but the messages are woven together by pro-Russian debaters to mean that all is lost and the doomsday doctrine is spreading like wildfire.<\/p>\n

Now comes some more information about Russian reserves, they have formed 25 CAA which should be ready to be sent to UA in December.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/the_lookout_n\/status\/1693616179976323520?s=46&t=dm_SJ-vgivVhXzjmtcxoHQ<\/a>
\nI haven’t heard of the 40th Army corps before.<\/p>\n

The 18th CAA also seems to be under formation according to the Brits.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/the_lookout_n\/status\/1693612575382994966?s=46&t=dm_SJ-vgivVhXzjmtcxoHQ<\/a><\/p>\n

If you remember the 3rd Army corps that was supposed to turn the war around, it was far from full strength, about 15,000 if I recall correctly, had received the newest equipment and performed terribly.<\/p>\n

None of these units are likely ready for deployment in September, which is the month the soldiers at the front have been told they will be rotated.<\/p>\n

If it is the case that RU is buying time with its victim strategy for the above CAA to be able to consolidate the main defense line, they need to start moving, which they cannot.<\/p>\n

There is quite little use for them in December when they have to start over and invade Ukraine anew.<\/p>\n

I stand by that there do not seem to be strategic reserves to send to Ukraine at present even though they are trying to form units for late autumn or later.<\/p>\n

This thing about the Russians hitting high-value targets with missiles \u2013 Slava or other pro-Russian sites always write about depots being knocked out but there are never those kinds of explosions in Ukraine \u2013 we would have seen videos of that.
\nHow does it work then \u2013 a person in Ukraine is recruited by the FSB to find targets and gets paid per target. It is dangerous work to expose oneself so surely more than one such resource tries the trick of selling completely meaningless targets to get paid. Then everyone in the whole chain is happy because they can show results.
\nVery Russian\u2026<\/p>\n

What happens outside the pro-Russian narrative that everyone seems to take as absolute truth right now.<\/p>\n

It was Spetsnaz who went and died in Robotyne, it is among the most protected the Russians have, and had left, and they were sacrificed on the front line far from the main defense line. Does anyone think they have offensive reserves left?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_force\/status\/1693615806741922144?s=46&t=gftIEDxSXRk1xs115CAR9w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yes, it is a bit sad that RU continues to build fortifications but they have to be manned too and you don\u2019t build them in a day.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/flash_news_ua\/status\/1693712607851515935?s=46&t=gftIEDxSXRk1xs115CAR9w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russians continue to lose 1:4 \u2013 1:5, UA has stated this, the losses support it, all the videos we see support it and Andrew Perpetua\u2019s constant summaries support it.<\/p>\n

RU is far from a 1:5 advantage in anything, they were 1:1 in tanks, UA has numerical superiority in soldiers and they began to approach in some capabilities so mathematically RU is heading for a crushing defeat without mobilization.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1694187639102988412?s=46&t=EtkAMYqR5WIITzxpbehEcQ<\/a><\/p>\n

ISW (which we have always respected) believes that the second line (and main defense line) is weaker.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1694182827305123888?s=46&t=EtkAMYqR5WIITzxpbehEcQ<\/a><\/p>\n

ISW, like us in the thread, believes that worn-out units are being pulled out and the main defense line is being reinforced. We have a lot of anecdotal evidence about that and that it is the line with the trauma patients.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1694182829343580647?s=46&t=EtkAMYqR5WIITzxpbehEcQ<\/a><\/p>\n

It looks to me like the southern front is bulging inward considerably and according to earlier info, if Russia does not carry out a major mobilization very soon (already yesterday) then they are done for.<\/p>\n

The same applies to the southern front, if no reserves come through Mariupol soon it will be too late.<\/p>\n

Two dead Russians hanging in a tree, earlier we have seen someone in a bunker \u2013 a lot of darkness in the Russian army.
\nDid NYT and WAPO count these dead when they summed up the number of dead or did they miss the tortured and murdered Russian soldiers in their own defenses?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1693698563895591023?s=46&t=gftIEDxSXRk1xs115CAR9w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks again for a good post!<\/p>\n

The Russian propaganda seems to be running at full speed, maybe some writers can’t defend themselves against it and take in the crap. Saw that the royal family had to close comments because it was full of posts from Russian trolls.
\nhttps:\/\/omni.se\/trollinlagg-efter-bild-pa-zelenskyj-och-kungen\/a\/JQ4Xx7<\/a><\/p>\n

The West sends too late and too little and doesn’t really seem to want Ukraine to win, at the same time they complain that there are no successes..<\/p>\n

For heaven’s sake, Ukraine advances every single day!<\/p>\n

Luckily, otherwise there would be a risk of falling into depression. It is tragic to see all the civilians affected by the Russians’ terror attacks while knowing that Ukrainian soldiers also die at the front.<\/p>\n

Glory to Ukraine!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now that we have started to get the list of the half-sunken Gotland ferry in order so one could board, it didn’t take long to discover that the liquor fridge was broken into, everything was left except a couple of bottles of Raki, the one that is 50%, and 25 bottles of Spiritus vodka that we planned to use as medical alcohol since it is 96% but it is a Polish vodka for the really tough.<\/p>\n

There was plenty of champagne, top-shelf beer, and ridiculously expensive cognac, so I wonder if the choice of alcohol can help advance the investigation of this atrocity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Hmm. You can guess which way this is leaning, but we have to get to the bottom of this investigation; we must not sink so low as to judge someone prematurely.<\/p>\n

By the way, check the fingerprints on the shot glasses; I suspect the suspect couldn’t resist having a drink.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Prigozin is down \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

(Fifth?)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1694405124943237391?s=46&t=3S1xKrZR9ZJPcRqLOPg_OQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Damn, like number ten\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

New blog record \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

What about this one?<\/p>\n

Big Purge 2.0 underway.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1694406541753929903?s=46&t=3S1xKrZR9ZJPcRqLOPg_OQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:38 \u2013 Johan No.1 There has been quite a bit of bilge pumping but now it is starting to stabilize, 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