{"id":8154,"date":"2023-08-28T09:42:17","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T07:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:30:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:30:40","slug":"2023-08-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now that the southern front commander has been forced to pull units from the Dnieper front and further east on the southern front to try to contain the situation around Robotyne, you don\u2019t need to be related to Patton via a secretary to understand that the pressure along the entire southern front will soon increase significantly.<\/p>\n

According to this Twitter god, RU has already pulled the VDV from northern Luhansk and reinforced Bakhmut and the southern front with them, which seems to be true, so the (relatively) capable offensive reserve in northern Luhansk is gone.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1696044759498789233?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

The attacks around Robotyne are at the most fortified stretch along the entire southern front \u2013 somewhat incredible that UA is making progress there. I have considered them a diversionary attack vector since the offensive started, but they are about to break through.<\/p>\n

Apparently, the 42nd division has now flagged that they are getting burned out from all the overtime; they are at Robotyne.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1696045039548322050?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

At Staromaiorske, the Russian artillery has gone silent and reinforcements are absent while Ukraine has rotated in rested units who are standing and doing squats.<\/p>\n

I am also quite sure that night fighting is now rolling out across the southern front and that some of the successes can be explained by this. UA has several of its SOF units to clear fortifications, and they have the capacity for night fighting. A very nice Easter egg.<\/p>\n

The Russians probably haven\u2019t prioritized batteries for night vision devices when they barely get ammunition through, and trying to hit something with flares is not easy, as anyone who has done military service knows.<\/p>\n

Have you noticed that in 3-4 videos, it has been Russians who threw down their weapons and tried to flee who got shot? I think that is significant \u2013 anecdotally significant.<\/p>\n

Looking at the elevation maps, the Tokmak pocket lies in a valley; the Ukrainians can practically throw stones down on the defense.<\/p>\n

They are probably sending thank-you letters right now because the Russians have encircled the area they are supposed to fight and really stocked up with extra-large ammunition supplies inside the circle \u2013 it\u2019s not easy to be the commander at Tokmak right now.<\/p>\n

The fact is that the medieval surrounding defenses they planned are terrible; there are several such towns they intend to hold in the best Stalingrad manner, but they are just big bullseyes waiting to be wiped out.<\/p>\n

The attack direction SE between Verbove and Novoprokopivka takes them straight up to dominating terrain.<\/p>\n

If you remember the big campaign plan someone wrote about, there were three attack vectors.
\nOne was west of Melitopol, one was in the area east of Robotyne in the dominating terrain, and one was near Vuhledar, east of that.<\/p>\n

That is what is playing out now with some modifications (but Erik14 five hundred is spent).<\/p>\n

If they go SE, they also avoid all the waterways, and up on the dominating terrain, they can\u2019t be overrun \u2013 very smart fighting, legendary level.<\/p>\n

And if the Russians get the idea to pull units from Tokmak, they leave the wagon fortress open instead \u2013 they are short on units and have to choose.<\/p>\n

The charm of the southern front is that UA only needs to reach Azov at one (1) point and they have three active attack vectors \u2013 the Dnieper front, Robotyne, and Staromaiorske.<\/p>\n

If they get stuck at Robotyne, they push on with the others.<\/p>\n

A done deal, as they say down here when they manage to get the Supreme Court on their side on racketeering and fraud.<\/p>\n

Do you think Wagner likes their burial sites being desecrated? There are quite a few threats of regime change from Wagner-associated media channels, but Putin wasn\u2019t born yesterday and they probably took care of the Wagner bases at the same time they shot down Prigozhin. And yes, it was Putin, otherwise they wouldn\u2019t have cleared the bases simultaneously, right? If it had been UA, the Russians would have stood there surprised for a few days.<\/p>\n

The wings of history, we follow in real time how Ukraine is maneuvering out the Russian team and soon has delivered a war-deciding offensive.<\/p>\n

One can only hope that the FSB reading the blog has started to understand where this is heading so they invest in the right horse going forward.<\/p>\n

If Putin is lucky, he will be sent to The Hague; otherwise, it will be like a luxury pinata hanging from a gas station soaked in gasoline.<\/p>\n

It is with rising hope but reading PerraG55\u2019s reasoning about how oligarchs and siloviki think.
\nYou\u2019ll probably have to explain this to us ordinary people in the electric underclass, PerraG55
\nThe St. Petersburg faction against Moscow gangsters and Prigozhin was an outburst.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1696042458562318697?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

We have hoped they would start retracting their claws since last spring, but the inertia has really been enormous here.<\/p>\n

But even a large mesh-dunk silovik probably has a red line, one might guess, and that the imperialistic shining Russian army being hunted like game in Ukraine and fleeing without their personal weapons could be such a red line?<\/p>\n

At the same time as the war starts eating into oligarchs\u2019 and siloviki\u2019s personal loot according to PerraG55, it feels like a real motivator to get rid of a dragging and coughing caviar-eating wreck in a bunker in Altai who thinks everyone should go down with him.<\/p>\n

Many have doubted Ukraine; already in autumn 2022 they had built an offensive reserve and refrained from attacking in winter 2023 \u2013 we wrote a lot about that in the thread.<\/p>\n

Many pro-Ukrainian debaters were holy outraged that they held Bakhmut, but practically everyone can see the value of it today \u2013 lucky that they didn\u2019t manage to influence any opinion despite their persistent complaining, which they have naturally completely forgotten today.<\/p>\n

Then big doubts started about the spring offensive, \u201cnumber game\u201d no one wanted to listen to, and in recent weeks the media has flooded with articles about Ukraine not being able to win and that there must be frozen fronts.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Ukraine is grinding on and soon will have delivered the Azov thrust. The losses are naturally enormous, but the Russian team loses infinitely much more.<\/p>\n

If the Azov thrust is not enough for Russia to retract its claws (which I believe!), they will continue with the invasion of Belgorod, recapturing northern Luhansk, the invasion of Rostov-on-Don, retaking the darkest Donbass, and then order will be restored.<\/p>\n

The world order is restored.<\/p>\n

China is cooling down and they will have some explaining to do after this war, how their ammunition ended up in Ukraine, for example.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1696052277524451383?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, things will move \u2013 just look at the number of brigades in the area to understand that RU is fully occupied defending itself from overkill.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk will swing \u2013 if RU has pulled away its (relatively) capable offensive reserves, the initiative will over time shift to Ukraine; they have many better units up there.<\/p>\n

If we are to believe all the rumors about new CAA 25, CAA 18, and some army corps, wouldn\u2019t it be perfect to train them in Zapad, both training and signaling?<\/p>\n

The Zapad that is now being canceled \u2013 signals that the Russians are finished if anything?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/the_lookout_n\/status\/1696054034090668475?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

UA has reached some legendary level in defense clearing now and most likely there is a lot of close combat and that combined is the reason they are cutting through the defense \u2013 they are simply outclassing the Russians right now.<\/p>\n

Putin can shuffle around in the Altai bunker and lap up caviar as much as he wants \u2013 the war is lost and he can\u2019t talk his way out of it.<\/p>\n

Considering that RU hasn\u2019t even made a half-hearted attempt to broker peace, it will probably be that the country turns inward instead, that is at the top of the bubble list now.<\/p>\n

There doesn\u2019t seem to be any mobilization and the southern front is starting to collapse under pressure here.<\/p>\n

Positive-Positive thus \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s positive report, things are moving in the right direction but positive analyses are needed!<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve heard rumors that Putin has been binge-eating so much caviar lately that it, just like the Russian army, is starting to run out.<\/p>\n

He has ordered a search of IKEA stores and they have found some boxes of Kalles caviar. He always has a tube or two in his pocket now that he sucks on for comfort when he gets bad news.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Hilarious \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Like an adult pacifier in caviar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has this one from Defmon been posted?
\n(Third place is a win for me)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/defmon3\/status\/1696101932090220795?s=46&t=tQpxYM0I58ld6NbBQTtcmA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

16:05 I found interesting because there are supposed to be two VDV divisions in the area that are some kind of offensive reserve?<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s just a rumor at best but did UA go straight down the Suvorikin line without any real defense?
\nIf so, Solodka Balka is next to fall, just one roll-up away.<\/p>\n

And further \u2013 if they have gotten into the Suvorikin line between these two settlements they can rush southeast and it\u2019s not particularly well defended there and what happened to the units on the maps?<\/p>\n

Many questions\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1 Now that the southern front commander has been forced to pull units from the Dnieper front 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