{"id":8162,"date":"2023-08-31T10:41:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T08:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T11:31:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:31:33","slug":"2023-08-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-08-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It feels like the Russian command for the special operation is sitting and googling asylum in the Middle East rather than leading the war here.<\/p>\n

Erik14 seems to have stayed up all night and has a large number of posts in yesterday’s thread that are must-reads, not least Murtz’s long whining, does anyone think the condition of the DPR and LPR units is good after reading that?<\/p>\n

The intensity of the spring offensive is still increasing and signals how well prepared UA was for this.<\/p>\n

That UA has broken through the first of two lines in the Suvorikin line at Verbove is absolutely sensational and completely in line with what the thread guessed \u2013 a Potemkin facade and that they pulled out ground-down units that had to defend the rear lines.
\nRussian doctrine turned upside down, or something\u2026<\/p>\n

We have also guessed for a while that the worst is behind UA and we know that they have not yet used all their offensive reserves.<\/p>\n

I’m pretty sure that night fighting plays a big role here, the Easter eggs’ Easter eggs. All the heavy vehicles delivered from the West have night fighting equipment and they have received enormous amounts of image intensifiers.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1696950356532396330?s=46&t=_XBp4xrhQvt_AX6VrtanBw<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russian units on the southern front are approaching their pain threshold and why Gerasimov keeps firing everyone who complains is a bit of a mystery.<\/p>\n

Or is it really, there\u2019s nothing to send?<\/p>\n

There are no strategic reserves on the southern front.<\/p>\n

At Robotyne RU is retreating.<\/p>\n

At the Dnieper they cannot break the bridgehead or bridgeheads and they are growing.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vorobyov\/status\/1696991499261501918?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

At Staromaiorske UA has just accelerated again and is preparing to throw itself over Staromlynivka from three directions \u2013 then they go down along the communities and break the main line. I get the impression that RU has prioritized defense in that area, a feeling. We wrote a few days ago that the rotation was complete.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1697053138627227881?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

And UA is grinding on other communities along the front.<\/p>\n

If the southern front commander does not give up the entire front line or the Dnieper front very soon, there will be a breakthrough. He probably has orders to hold every meter and prioritizes job security first.<\/p>\n

If they give up the front line and the Dnieper front, they only buy (a little) time and there is a great risk (chance) that it will be an unorganized retreat that UA manages to exploit and can latch on so they jump down into the rear trenches while wildly fleeing Russians dive down there headfirst and without personal weapons.<\/p>\n

We hear nothing about reinforcements, army corps are needed to make a difference and they do not exist.
\nWe hear nothing about mobilization either, because Putin cannot mobilize.<\/p>\n

Is there really anyone who believes RU can hold out on the southern front any longer?
\nThe summer is long, until the last leaves have fallen \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

On top of all the good news from the southern front, Ukraine has now taken the initiative up in northern Luhansk, exactly when it turned I missed. It was of course because they pulled away a number of brigades from there to send down to the southern front and Bakhmut presumably. I guessed 10 brigades total could be the redundancy but then they were down to a minimum and UA is absolutely not weak in that area as a whole herd of journalists tries to claim.<\/p>\n

Then UA continues with offensive operations at Bakhmut \u2013 I believe that the war cunning has already played out but there is every reason in the world to keep pressing.<\/p>\n

The 3rd Assault Brigade has fought relentlessly since early May sometime, says a lot about UA attrition rate I think.
\nThen UA has started moving at Avdiivka (north of the city of Donetsk).<\/p>\n

Summing up, UA has the initiative now on all fronts and RU is conducting counterattacks \u2013 a sign as clear as anything that RU is seriously on the decline.<\/p>\n

But if you are MoD and have constant internal conflicts then you make sure that not a single Wagner soldier gets to fight in Ukraine \u2013 absolute kindergarten.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1697073187266125982?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

As usual, Russian losses are running wild in Perpetua’s anecdotal list.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1697050034515140626?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Russia is supposed to set up new CAA and AC and apparently several new divisions. The positive thing seems to be that they are pulling units out of Ukraine to form the foundation for these.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1696949990348787833?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1697061234615488740?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Just when you thought it couldn’t get better, Girkin wants to become president \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1697153525019467967?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Just for the archive, the last video with Prigozhin mid-August where he talks about all the rumors and that he is doing well. Then Putin murdered his old buddy like the best of Don Corleones.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylabb\/status\/1697034699024007319?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

A map with UA drone attacks since January 2023 if anyone thought they were not that many.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1697100375164141744?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Kramatorsk railway station is a hub for reinforcements and leave-takers \u2013 some pictures.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1697089828909920644?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

A breakthrough on the southern front is imminent provided that reserves are not rolling through Mariupol but they would already have been needed and they presumably do not exist.<\/p>\n

All newly established armies and divisions exist only on paper so far and cannot be deployed in the war.<\/p>\n

For the observant, we also know that Ukraine continues to set up about a dozen new brigades that are being trained so besides those remaining of the offensive reserve and about a dozen in various stages of recovery, there are about a dozen more who right now are learning how best to kill Russians on the training fields.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit like at the end of the MMA fight where Putin is lying on his back flailing his arms, foaming at the mouth and red-faced while Zelensky lands hammer blow after hammer blow on him that make an impression on the floor.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s sweet and sour at the same time, the losses are sky-high even for Ukraine but they are well on their way to winning this war.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time to get positive-positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s vitamin injection!<\/p>\n

Soon time for \u201cfont is collapsing\u201d (as an upset pro-Russian once expressed it and which then became a meme).<\/p>\n

Girkin seems to have a death wish..<\/p>\n

Positive2
\nSlava Ukraini!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, he\u2019s also in prison so Putin has probably sent in seven lifers to share a cell with him now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:13 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83e\udd23 Too bad Prigozhin was taken out, otherwise it would have been funny if they got to share a cell..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Interesting post, we thought when the spring offensive started and we saw that the \u201cnumber game\u201d was what mattered, that the fortifications were too extensive for Ukraine to break through so if Ukraine instead decimates the defense so they cannot man the defense systems they would have eliminated them. A hole without a Russian in it is just a hole \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Potemkin facade in the sense that the line is neither fortified NOR as heavily mined as the front line.<\/p>\n

However, they are better built the further back UA goes, we have probably been clear about that.<\/p>\n

This seems to have happened when they could go straight down into a prepared defense line without resistance \u2013 smartly fought.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1 It feels like the Russian command for the special operation is sitting and googling asylum in 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