{"id":8179,"date":"2023-09-03T11:39:29","date_gmt":"2023-09-03T09:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-09-03-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T15:22:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T13:22:44","slug":"2023-09-03-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-09-03-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-09-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Forward south of Staromaiorske it seems to have only been our very own R\u00f6pcke who embarrassed himself internationally and in the front row. Unexpected\u2026<\/p>\n

According to yesterday, a RU counterattack was expected in that area and UA has temporarily gone on the defensive \u2013 we shall see.
\nThe amount of UA elite units in the area suggests a very high level of ambition and it is very likely that RU defense in the area is worn out according to yesterday\u2019s summary.<\/p>\n

To prevent the southern front commander from pulling units from the area to reinforce the Robotyne area, pressure must also be maintained there and also over at the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

Fairly sure that they fight like with the 3rd Assault brigade also at the southern front except when they are supposed to advance a kilometer or two and fight with battalion strength but those have been rare so far. Maybe there will be more now?<\/p>\n

At Verbove the 82nd brigade retook the fortification system (or the Russians built them but the terrain was retaken) which was defended by VDV and since they are not marked on the unit maps they have probably had to borrow from the anorexic offensive reserve again for the defense.<\/p>\n

The summary yesterday was important to understand how badly off it is for RU at Verbove, there are 7 battalion-sized units and then when you squeeze in 7 brigades in tiny Novoprokopivka you understand that you are not looking at 14 full brigades on the map or how but rather 7 battalions and 7 heavily decimated brigades.<\/p>\n

Other brigades in the area such as the 810 marine infantry and 25th Spetznaz have taken heavy losses earlier and then there are several LPR or DPR units in the area.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has a very large number of maneuver brigades in the area.<\/p>\n

Commanders of units in 58CAA have contacted the dismissed commander Popov as the situation is now critical.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1698173642222477491?s=46&t=DRKCkD6gBMfhWfDyb1ck5Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Also remember the rumor that spread along the entire front that they would be rotated in September. None will be rotated because there is no major mobilization in Russia.<\/p>\n

The only strategic reserve added is 25CAA which is not full strength and not fully trained.<\/p>\n

At the city of Donetsk it is now almost exclusively LPR and DPR units and according to our friend Muntz their condition is not good. That they do not pull units from there to the southern front suggests that they are not at full strength. In fact, DPR seems to have taken responsibility all the way up to Horlivka, it is empty of RU units in this area which some usually call the darkest Donbass.<\/p>\n

-so there was truth in that RU handed over responsibility of the darkest Donbass to the Donbass people, that was a rumor that went around earlier this spring or early summer, right?<\/p>\n

A typical Russian quick fix and also signals that they are prepared to let go of their brother people as nice as they are.<\/p>\n

Between the Kreminna forests and Lysychansk the Russian team is now considerably weak. Battalion strength units and then the 144th division which has seen a lot of fighting and cannot be completely intact.<\/p>\n

There it is also the highest high-risk play from the command.<\/p>\n

It became some kind of truth that UA is weak up in northern Luhansk and that is not true at all. They were weaker than the 130,000 Russians before they reinforced and then in some kind of balance with the 100,000 Russians where RU had concentrated VDV. Now that all VDV have been sent south in panic along with some other brigades it is UA who has the initiative.<\/p>\n

I can’t figure out which but quite a few units seem to have disappeared from there and at Bakhmut there are some new brigades and one more at Vuhledar type.<\/p>\n

UA is low on artillery and drones but that is two days away after decisions are made.<\/p>\n

The situation is simply pitch black for the special operation command no matter how you twist and turn this.<\/p>\n

If you guess, spetznaz, reconnaissance and VDV still have some night fighting capability but they are all light on tanks and also endangered. The newly mobilized brigades will probably have to fight under light, one can guess if even that.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of the war RU had a 1:30 advantage in artillery (according to many) and today it is balanced \u2013 almost having done the impossible.<\/p>\n

In absolute number of tanks UA passed a while ago but RU has hundreds of older T62 and T54-55 while UA has upgraded eastern tanks or well-maintained western tanks \u2013 capability significantly higher.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that UA has had the numbers in spearhead units for quite some time and they absolutely have the numbers in SOF and elite units.<\/p>\n

UA also manages to fight with all capabilities which RU does not master and UA exploits that fully.<\/p>\n

No one has air supremacy but Ukraine has drone supremacy and that is enough.<\/p>\n

In a longer perspective it looks even darker than pitch black for the special operation command.<\/p>\n

No matter how I look at this the southern front is one breakthrough away from collapse and UA is pressing. It is still my belief that it would be enough for something on the bubble list to kick in and I am still surprised at how slow Russia is.<\/p>\n

There are daily drone bombings in Moscow and they strike airports all over Russia a bit as they please \u2013 even the Russian leadership must understand that there is a risk of unrest in the country from this and that they have sent everything to Ukraine, there is nothing left to oppress the citizens with.<\/p>\n

Budanov recently released information that must have led to purges in FSB and GRU.<\/p>\n

Now I have learned in the thread that in Russia it is full speed ahead that applies and that may be true but full speed ahead ends the second the country turns inward and it has done so three times during the 20th century.<\/p>\n

Erik14 posted yesterday a statement from Tarnavskyi who announced that they broke through the first line, written at 01:00. I believe this refers to the area around Robotyne.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1698227784261226504?s=46&t=DRKCkD6gBMfhWfDyb1ck5Q<\/a><\/p>\n

A bit unclear how to interpret this but am I on the right track here? \u2013 <\/p>\n

The foremost line or first line was the one with 10km deep minefields and according to Tarnavskyi 60% of the work went into that.<\/p>\n

He says they now stand in no man\u2019s land between the foremost line and the first of the two Suvorikin lines which then had 20% each spent on them or something.<\/p>\n

It now seems that even the first Suvorikin line is breached now at Verbove?<\/p>\n

Then the completely incredible that they cleared 10km of minefields with mine-clearing soldiers \u2013 good luck getting any NATO doctrine to do that\u2026<\/p>\n

I think the whole statement is in line with how we in the thread have perceived the situation, we might be a bit ahead with Verbove.
\nThen that it took longer than they thought to clear the minefields but now it is done.<\/p>\n

Then I also understand that no one in western media will report this statement and now there will be a week of wild analyses about the threat from Satan 2 and whether there will be tsunami waves over London from the new nuclear torpedo.<\/p>\n

There will be some of that coming from the Russian side now \u2013 one last influence operation to talk the West down, threats of nuclear weapons, and then they will make a violent PR campaign out of all the new CAA they set up that will overrun Ukraine in just a few weeks once they get to the front.<\/p>\n

The threat from all the new CAA will be worrying and war-deciding, according to Western media.
\nThe only thing that makes a difference on the ground is new brigades on the front lines, which will not happen.<\/p>\n

If you are to take anything from this war, it is how effective mines and infantry are. NATO doctrine sounds very fun but against dug-in and decently armed infantry it is never fun.
\nIt seems like small drones that hunt infantry one by one are a big threat and will probably develop significantly in the future. And then every soldier gets a barracuda blanket to hide under.<\/p>\n

It seems like RU milbloggers and others have also been ordered on opsec \u2013 do not be misled into thinking nothing is happening because it is quiet. When it is this quiet, everything is happening.<\/p>\n

The two remaining lines must be defended to be effective, a trench without a Russian in it is just an empty trench dug by a Russian (an old Chinese wise proverb but I thought it fit).<\/p>\n

Meet an enormous defense system defended by two Russians at Verbove \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1698229113582969154?s=46&t=DRKCkD6gBMfhWfDyb1ck5Q<\/a><\/p>\n

We know that the VDV garrison of Ocheretuvate was pulled away weeks ago, for example, so it is reasonable to assume that the rear Suvorikin line is quite empty right now in that area.<\/p>\n

Where Ukraine is advancing southeast of Robotyne right now, there are two BARS battalions on the unit maps.<\/p>\n

It became a long summer as we said a couple of times, and it seems it could be an eventful (maybe the wrong word\u2026) September, everyone understands what is at stake here, not least UA command and soldiers trying to do the impossible in the Russian low point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the situation report!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 Forward south of Staromaiorske it seems to have only been our very own R\u00f6pcke who embarrassed 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