{"id":8197,"date":"2023-09-11T11:28:29","date_gmt":"2023-09-11T09:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-09-11-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T15:25:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T13:25:59","slug":"2023-09-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-09-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-09-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Without revealing too much, as many have guessed, Dengamle has received a mission. He likes old-style, so it was hand-delivered by courier in an envelope and in code. Then Dengamle losing the code key made it take a bit longer. There are a few of us still waiting for our missions, which will probably come with a grumpy WhatsApp message in the middle of the night as usual.<\/p>\n

People here are starting to be somewhat more positive about the West and arms deliveries; today the Germans are supposed to send 40 more Marders, and one can only hope that every single CV90 Slovakia gets from the 150 they have ordered goes straight to UA? We need even more pre-talk and for the West to announce much more at the meeting.<\/p>\n

Then Brazil\u2019s president backed down on Putin being welcome in Brazil after an assumed lesson in how a country practically functions, Erdogan was mocked in Russian media, and China\u2019s problems seem bigger than they want to admit. So there are cracks in the BRIICS. India and China also didn\u2019t seem to be best buddies at the G20 meeting.<\/p>\n

At Robotyne, UA has deployed tanks to use direct fire to massage the Russians into a pit before they get beaten to death by infantry.<\/p>\n

That signals a high level of ambition, I think, and there are daily small successes there despite RU pooling the country\u2019s last offensive reserve of VDV in the area \u2013 the national reserve.<\/p>\n

Accentmannen had an explanation, right or wrong, for why they drive tanks alone along the trench systems, and that is to detonate anti-personnel mines so the infantry has a cleared path to advance.<\/p>\n

If that is true, it is a significant departure from NATO doctrine (right?), but I have long thought about mines near the trenches. When we did fire assaults, we often placed a small minefield in front of the firing positions as \u201cclose protection\u201d in addition to the minefields further out that were meant to stop vehicles we intended to knock out.<\/p>\n

When we conducted mechanized combat, we drove quite close to the trench system we were going to storm and then the tanks advanced with the infantry as direct support \u2013 all very mine-sensitive.<\/p>\n

Ukraine always drops off the infantry at a proper distance and then the tanks move to avoid indirect fire, but the whole behavior could be explained by mines?<\/p>\n

I have the impression that there is also movement near Staromaiorske and that it is a broad active front?
\nThe width guarantees that RU cannot pool what they have to one point but must spread out.<\/p>\n

The activity around Avdiivka is interesting, Opytne is still a bit away from the ceasefire line but the area is said to be infested with DPR units that do not seem to be in good shape.
\nIt is difficult, however, to develop that into an offensive as there are natural obstacles east of Opytne, but if the rumor from Azovsouth is true that they are approaching the airport, then that is absolutely sensational.<\/p>\n

Up near Bakhmut it is starting to look like they can sniff the buildings again now that they have pushed RU out from the Klischiivka NS line \u2013 looks good.<\/p>\n

Someone wondered where all the T55s go, and the answer is that the new units with thousands of designations get them.
\nI have understood that they are battalion-sized and have a base of soldiers transferred from wiped-out units and then filled up with mobilized personnel. Low combat value and if they have T55s, that is even better.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1701091197236793638?s=46&t=4AQjusnPZ_iQRIsql0oA0A<\/a><\/p>\n

Perpetua\u2019s anecdotal summary as usual and you don\u2019t need to open the link \u2013 3 times more for the Russians who are on the defense.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1701095924204724554?s=46&t=4AQjusnPZ_iQRIsql0oA0A<\/a><\/p>\n

If you try to understand how the combat leadership thinks, nothing has happened before they have to give up a large piece of ground (again).<\/p>\n

Forgotten is that they have not managed to fulfill Putin\u2019s demands at all and have abandoned 50% of the conquered area.
\nIf they only manage to hold the terrain taken, it is considered acceptable on some level.<\/p>\n

The question is what happens when they have to give up the entire southern front and lose Bakhmut \u2013 can Russia take that hit?<\/p>\n

I have believed that the Azov push will be too difficult for them to survive politically at home and that the country would then turn inward.
\nIf it doesn\u2019t, Ukraine has proven that they are worthy of our support and then only the darkest Donbass and northern Luhansk remain to be retaken with a massive numerical advantage for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, we are heading into another autumn where RU will attack UA\u2019s electrical infrastructure and they will make Enerhodar unusable before they leave.<\/p>\n

I am among those who want to see an end to all restrictions on Western weapons \u2013 let UA knock out the 46 Iskander platforms and all the training camps and depots along the border.<\/p>\n

It is downright embarrassing that RU still, after 1.5 years of ethnic cleansing, can step over the border marker and be safe. The Ukrainian children tortured and murdered had no such safe zone, so why should the torturers have one?<\/p>\n

Before too long, Ukraine will have acquired that capability on its own through domestic production, and then it will be a Grom2 in the Kremlin that tops Budanov\u2019s list.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Saw that the T55 regiment was mentioned in the blog post above \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I had that discussion during the reserve officer training when we were exercise leaders for next year\u2019s class.<\/p>\n

Swedish doctrine is to advance under fragmentation protection, but with today\u2019s increasingly accurate artillery and drones, survival chances are probably higher if the group is dispersed than if it sits in a vehicle?<\/p>\n

They have been using very much terrain-capable buses for a while now \u2013 drop off the infantry, let them go, and pull back the vehicle. Then the tank stands and provides direct support 2-3 km away.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Those who want the Russian glass to be half full claim that they are deadly as infantry fighting vehicles and therefore good.<\/p>\n

All the rest of us claim that if they had T80s, they would have equipped with T80s, and they perform terribly in tank duels, against anti-tank drones and anti-tank weapons, and the crew is written off.<\/p>\n

There is no upside; if they have come to equip regiments with T54-55, it is bad for the Russian side.<\/p>\n

Shorter range, poor aiming devices, no night fighting capability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Well written!<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is downright embarrassing that RU still, after 1.5 years of ethnic cleansing, can step over the border marker and be safe. The Ukrainian children tortured and murdered had no such safe zone, so why should the torturers have one?\u201d<\/p>\n

That question should be asked to all politicians and others who have a say when it comes to military support to Ukraine. Preferably every day as long as they cannot come up with a relevant answer.<\/p>\n

Gripen, Gungnir, CV90 and everything else to Ukraine!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Lots of Gungnir \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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