{"id":8272,"date":"2023-10-06T11:23:50","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T09:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-06-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:41:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:41:39","slug":"2023-10-06-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-06-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-06"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Quietly, UA has retaken a large number of oil platforms (I thought there were about three in my ignorance\u2026) and after dragging in anti-ship missiles, radar, and air defense, they have essentially created their own “fleet” that protects the waters west of Crimea together with those river boats and RIB boats delivered in 2022, if you remember.<\/p>\n

The accent man had all the information as usual, well-informed.<\/p>\n

Some resemblance to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and very neat. RU has countered this by pulling most of the fleet to a port further east on the Russian mainland, Novorossiysk, and hinted that they will build a new naval base on occupied territory in Georgia.<\/p>\n

One begins to wonder, if nothing else, whether they have already mentally given up on Crimea here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The fact that RU ships stay away from the oil platforms and the waters west of them means transport ships can move freely to Ukrainian ports now, and insurance companies accept this and insure them \u2013 Ukraine apparently manages to protect the sea lanes sufficiently without having a fleet\u2026<\/p>\n

RU’s embargo on grain trade amounted to very little, you know the big dark threat from Putin and the whole West who got very scared and started considering lifting the SWIFT sanctions again in exchange for RU promising not to sink any ships.<\/p>\n

Only one country met them with some integrity and they immediately backed down (maybe something for the West to consider?) and now they no longer talk about an embargo on grain transports because they cannot enforce such an embargo.<\/p>\n

However, there are rumors they plan to sneak in mines (with a submarine?) to try to sink a transport ship, but the UK seems to have caught wind of the sneaky plan and exposed it \u2013 honorable is not the Russian dictatorship mindset, filled with darkness and pettiness.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, if you remember when Moskva was west of Crimea and with its radar and air defense effectively prevented all flying in the area behind the southern front and east of the Dnieper, and how UA could start moving more freely immediately after it was sunk \u2013 we were sipping whisky in pure Christmas joy when that happened.<\/p>\n

One should not underestimate that the Russian navy has fled Crimea and that UA sits on oil rigs 55 km out with a bunch of small river boats, wasn\u2019t it 18 or so delivered in 2022?<\/p>\n

Not only has it become easier with drone and missile attacks since huge air defense platforms are gone, but liberation deeds against Crimea by fast boats and much death are increasing dramatically.<\/p>\n

RU does not have “unlimited” air defense down in Crimea at all. They also don\u2019t have much personnel from the army but I guess there are FSB and Rosgvardia who can push through a bridgehead if needed.<\/p>\n

To get beyond HIMARS range, first 80 km and then 100 km, there are many depots, storages, bases, and staffs down in Crimea that are now being worked through.<\/p>\n

Then there is equipment in the thousands standing on large staging areas waiting for maintenance.<\/p>\n

With this, I think it looks like the stage has been set partly for the liberation of the southern front but also for the drone swarms that will empty Crimea of Russians \u2013 very smartly waged by the country without a fleet, one must admit.<\/p>\n

My rather weak guess is that if there is a retreat down towards Crimea after a breakthrough at the southern front, then there are 150,000 there in total (army, navy, air force, administration, FSB, Rosgvardia) trapped together with huge supplies and all that in the navy, air force, and especially the army that could not be moved. There are surely lots of aircraft and some ships that will remain.<\/p>\n

Too little too late seems to be a Russian motto, so when the land bridge is cut and the bridge blown up, they will try to boat over 150,000 to the Russian side Kerch in a cloud of UA drones.<\/p>\n

Will the Altai wanderer and the sneaky caviar eater survive that?<\/p>\n

Hard to see how he could avoid dangling then, and that is probably why the Azov thrust has been dubbed the chess move by someone who refuses to leave the thread.<\/p>\n

The fact that UA has pushed the Russian fleet to Novorossiysk is almost as sensational as them denying RU air supremacy over Ukraine or invading Russia \u2013 it projects weakness on the bunker lizard.<\/p>\n

Now we are just waiting for good news about Novoprokopivka and Robotyne, all RU counterattacks have failed and UA has both improved its flank protection after the latest RU flank attack and also worked its way forward towards Novoprokopivka.<\/p>\n

Do you think Turkey\u2019s increasing violence in Syria is related \u2013 diversionary and ordered by the caviar-eating bunker-dweller?<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s almost becoming psychology lessons in the media for lack of breaking news and something that has really taken hold is that “if Russia can absorb these losses, they can\u2019t handle everything then”.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s losses are always one step away from defeat but Russia apparently always has infinite capacity.<\/p>\n

I think the media has completely missed the point that Putin promised to sink all civilian transport ships arriving at Ukrainian ports but instead the fleet fled to Novorossiysk. They continue to focus on the idea that Russia cannot possibly be defeated because they have too much of everything.<\/p>\n

Throughout the war, I have often sat quite alone pitching for Badanka, Kupiansk, the revolving door, the Azov thrust, and so on. Everything is pure daydreaming that occasionally has happened, but then it suddenly happens and interest explodes, experts calibrate their theories and go on with new fresh theories to get media time.<\/p>\n

Now that it is “quiet” (you understand), one has to look a bit in the undergrowth to guess what is being worked towards \u2013 Ukraine\u2019s intention is to regain its country to the 1991 borders. Compromises exist only as dreams on the Russian side and among some defectors in the West.<\/p>\n

To manage this and especially not to have zeroed out its defense forces when they have done this, they need to take much lower losses than the Russian side and have a recycling mindset with the equipment so that as much as possible can be repaired and returned to units.<\/p>\n

Exhausting their capability in round one would give round two to Putin and he understands that \u2013 what is happening right now is his worst nightmare that keeps him sleepless at night, what was not supposed to happen, Russia is outclassed in all categories and when his glorious imperialist army has shuffled back to his side of the border, the Ukrainian army will be strong enough to defend its border and domestic production of missiles will provide a balance of terror \u2013 he has lost Ukraine for all time.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s best infantry is now solving the task of liberating the country defense system by defense system and quietly they have secured the western Black Sea without a fleet which has completely escaped half the media.<\/p>\n

The Russian army in Ukraine is under enormous pressure right now and Ukraine is grinding them completely to pieces through excellent warfare that would have made Patton absolutely green with envy.<\/p>\n

Many armies had run across the fields, failed, and then said they had done what they could \u2013 we maintained our honor but it went to hell, slave.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is street-smart like a Brazilian street dog and learns lightning-fast new ways to eliminate Russians in pits.<\/p>\n

If UA can now just get in the LV so they completely deny the FAB500 drops by the elite air force, the southern front is probably a done deal, but the West continues its line of not giving enough, so that’s probably hoping for too much.<\/p>\n

It has been a long time since I felt this strongly about something, it’s not just that Peruvian at work who now wants his truckload of Swedish beer, which I discourage by claiming it was summer in Portugal when I left \u2013 30 degrees and the whole city was on the beach, so he will have to wait until December when summer is over in Portugal.<\/p>\n

There is a fundamental right-wrong where my entire worldview will change if Putin manages to snatch some half-win from this.<\/p>\n

It must not happen, not only because my worldview in my parents’ basement room would take a hit but also because all the countries now sitting on the fence and keeping a low profile will then start to smell the morning air, and it will be a worse world.<\/p>\n

The multipolar BRIICS world is just a world where bigger countries get to jump on weaker ones just like the colonial powers Russia and China have always done and gotten a free pass for.<\/p>\n

They don’t like NATO just like a criminal clan in a suburb that gets a local police station doesn’t like it \u2013 it complicates their criminal activities and then they blame social stigma and various phobias, but at the core, it’s their illegal activities they’re worried about.<\/p>\n

Now no one listens to me, but the same sense of justice exists in the Ukrainian infantry that has defended itself for 1.5 years and been ready to die for their cause, which they have done in droves.<\/p>\n

You can have the most tanks, the most drones, many corvettes, and lots of exciting aircraft, but what wins a war is infantry ready to die for their cause and who read the entire SoldF during conscription \u2013 that is what wins wars.<\/p>\n

Defense is easier than offensive operations, but what we have seen on film now is that UA has reached legendary level in clearing defense systems, and I think everyone is starting to understand how widespread darkness fighting is and that RU has to do the best they can under their light.<\/p>\n

Divisions across the fields are last war, in today’s dynamic environment they fight as they should, and I don’t know what short films those who think everything is “spray and pray” have seen. When the 3rd Assault brigade started posting their films, the exercise commands in Europe took copies to use in training their own lazy infantry is my best guess.<\/p>\n

There are about half a million very hard-to-kill Ukrainian infantry who all voluntarily sign up for the hardest missions, and I guess fear is starting to spread in the Russian army now and that there will be a small epidemic of desertion going forward.<\/p>\n

It’s not fun to be outclassed in death every day, even a small-size Russian in his pit will probably get it sometime, even if there is some sediment left to gargle.<\/p>\n

Until the Russian version of a retreat happens, we will continue to rejoice in daily successes and highlight all the positive things that happen which the media choose to miss.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

For once, I have tried to dive a bit deeper into this, so if you laugh so much you spill your coffee, stop reading now \u2013<\/p>\n

Before the war, we learned the other day in the thread that Western diplomats and politicians tried to prevent the war and all they got was that the Russian empire would be resurrected and that Ukraine would fall in a day anyway. The Russian representatives they met were like little jubilant children on Christmas Eve.<\/p>\n

Fast forward 1.5 years and the atrocities have been absolutely horrific in both scale and evil, but the only thing we see from the Russian representatives is that they are angry partly because Ukraine has the audacity to defend itself but also because the West has helped them defend themselves \u2013 cheating, simply put, otherwise they would have won.<\/p>\n

(hint \u2013 it is the Ukrainian shooters in the defenses that have decided this war)<\/p>\n

In more and more statements, they now portray themselves as victims rather than the sexual sadistic perpetrators they are.<\/p>\n

My take on this \u2013
\n-The war was inevitable, the West could have given Putin everything he pointed at, he would have just demanded more and still started the war.
\n-For the Russian representatives, all this unimaginable suffering is irrelevant, they have always done this and will always do so is probably the reasonable assumption?
\n-The ambition level was sky-high, we know that \u2013 a minimum outcome for RU was probably that the Balkans became Russia-friendly and Ukraine taken over, and then they would have continued with refugee flows, the electricity weapon, and enormous subversive activities where groups were set against each other.<\/p>\n

What happens now today?
\nThe West is slowly, if not getting tired, then at least fading out in the media and people talk about other things.
\n-daily there are Iranian mopeds, 30-40 of them.
\n-they hit infrastructure for grain.
\n-they plan to hit the electricity infrastructure in winter.
\n-they plan to mine the sea routes for shipping.
\n-they terror bomb civilian targets daily in Ukraine \u2013 the caf\u00e9 and the hospital are just two targets out of hundreds.<\/p>\n

I see only one way forward \u2013 out with Russia to the 1991 borders and a deterrent eastern defense against Russia financed by Western countries, Finland, the Baltics, and Ukraine should not have to pay for everything.<\/p>\n

If Russia shoots one missile, the West shoots two at targets that hurt more than what their missile damaged.<\/p>\n

If they amass troops within a demarcation zone of 30 km, they are shot away in a tungsten rain and then the West remains silent, “no comment”.<\/p>\n

Kaliningrad is demilitarized and all attempts to remilitarize are mysteriously shot down at night by unknown perpetrators.<\/p>\n

If Russia were to get the idea to start decolonizing, that is not something the West should interfere with, and if the Belarusian population completes the revolution, that is also not something we should oppose.<\/p>\n

Yes, we will get a cold war, but it will stop there, and it is Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine that will be affected first, and the least the West can do is finance a sufficiently strong border defense that is deterrent.<\/p>\n

Mines have proven to work excellently, so make a mile-deep minefield along the entire border with Russia and have air defense that shoots down 100% and own missiles and a policy of proportional retaliation every time.<\/p>\n

We are not there yet, but I have given up hope that Russia could be made to work against the West with anything other than the country falling apart, but then the next problem arises.<\/p>\n

There is a great risk that we solve the Russian problem but create a Chinese problem instead if they start absorbing Russian sub-republics or provinces either economically or through some kind of conquest that the West turns a blind eye to.<\/p>\n

In this three-step rocket, Russia is probably the first step, then the West needs a policy towards China and to set some boundaries. Taiwan is actually no danger because China will definitely fail with its amphibious operation and they cannot attack neighboring countries other than Russia and India.<\/p>\n

For there to be a de-escalation, the West must have clear boundaries after this war, I guess?<\/p>\n

What I see in Africa right now is very unpleasant, Russia and China are allowed to recolonize the continent and the West is occupied with other things.<\/p>\n

I understand why \u2013 after recent years’ discussions about the colonial legacy, there isn’t a single politician in the entire West who would risk their career by sending troops to Africa and being accused of slave trade.<\/p>\n

This needs to come from the UN but that organization has probably already been hijacked by China and Russia.<\/p>\n

And until something happens, millions of families will suffer in these countries under Wagner and China’s conquests.<\/p>\n

We have come far and for the Ukraine war we can probably sense the end (or it is already over but Russia must accept it) but we have a long way to go before BRIICS’ attempt at a new and worse world order loses momentum and the general situation can improve.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks, your positivity is needed!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The Peruvian is doing his best but I am unshakable in my belief \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

KARLXII got there first. That was well-written and well-thought-out, I can’t imagine anyone laughing at it.<\/p>\n

We also have an unlikely scenario where Russia pulls itself together and tries to become a democracy again. That would be best for them.<\/p>\n

The problem is that it still won’t be possible to trust them, a strongly defended border will be needed in any case.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

I myself nowadays easily fall into a slump on the days when Russia murders civilians with its terror bombings. That of course does not affect my belief that it will end with Ukraine emerging victorious from this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Yes, it is a heavy burden to carry to be passionate about the UA war, to say the least. Most people around have completely stopped thinking about it now and I don’t really discuss it with anyone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That one is on the bubbling list and to be picky Wagner has already made an internal revolt but yes, that VDV, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance and marine infantry allow themselves to be bullied like this is very strange.<\/p>\n

The army as well, leads me to believe that there is quite a lot of FSB and Rosgvardia acting as blocking battalions.<\/p>\n

You can’t predict outcomes from the bubbling list, still waiting for that committee decision, but one hopes they get enough sometime because the war is lost.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yep, those organizations turned out to be if not hijacked then at least very submissive towards Russia and then it was WHO that helped China spread Covid when it happened.<\/p>\n

Sure, the West is sweeping but many African countries’ dictators play the colonial card to ally with China or Russia instead for the reason that they can enrich themselves more and oppress their population more.<\/p>\n

It is a lose-lose for the citizens in these countries and very sad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Overall, it’s quite a positive news Friday, isn’t it, Nilsson got fired, all Russian VDV counterattacks are crushed and something else I now forgot. It feels appropriate with a whisky after dinner, I still have the duty-free purchases left so it still feels like a little guest appearance in the fine rooms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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