{"id":8278,"date":"2023-10-08T09:27:46","date_gmt":"2023-10-08T07:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-08-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:43:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:43:16","slug":"2023-10-08-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-08-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Back to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

There are very high Russian losses again suggesting movements at the front but the operational security is tight.
\nWe must be clear that Russia has managed to get its reporting in order now and we hear much less from them, not just Girkin and Prigozhin but bloggers in general are now cautious with bad news.
\nWe can therefore assume that the situation is worse for Russia than we think nowadays and that is very good.<\/p>\n

The counterattacks on the southern front all failed, in northern Luhansk they lost momentum and between Vuhledar \u2013 Horlivka they may have achieved some success.<\/p>\n

Remember that Shoigu has been ordered to retake everything in October so now the last on the potato fields will probably die.<\/p>\n

The 66th brigade is at Makiivka and has knocked out 25 Russian tanks in four days. Anyone who thinks things are going well for the Russians up in northern Luhansk?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1710904417338233268?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

By the way, there was a cloud of drones and rockets over Crimea yesterday but it was somewhat overshadowed by Hamas rampages, traffic also stopped on the Kerch Bridge, right?<\/p>\n

Erik14 posted a link during the night shift that there are currently 10-11,000 there in Crimea. It is highly unclear whether that is total or just the army. If it is the total, then that is about the size of the logistics\u2026
\nMy guess that there will be 150,000 total down in Crimea when the trap closes was based on a larger number of FSB and Rosgvardia (which I think is needed down there) and that the navy, air force and administration had a lot of personnel left.<\/p>\n

If it turns out that Crimea is already emptied as Erik14\u2019s link possibly suggests then there will be a retreat of 30 \u2013 60,000 down there to replenish these 10k.
\nGood luck holding Crimea with that number \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/ukrainefrontlines.com\/news\/occupied-crimea\/how-many-personnel-has-russia-deployed-in-the-occupied-crimea\/<\/a><\/p>\n

A very brief reflection on Israel \u2013 heads should be rolling in their security service because this was the mistake of the decade and unfortunately we have now experienced an escalation whether we want it or not.<\/p>\n

Saw this, dozens of burnt-out cars along a road, many have probably died and been wounded this time.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1710908484089192766?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

A third world war is still far away but Russia has managed to keep the war in Ukraine alive, recolonize half of Africa with China, get Serbia on a war footing, get Turkey to escalate in Syria and now things are starting to move in Israel. A couple of steps up the escalation ladder thus in a short time.<\/p>\n

I think everyone understands that the way to de-escalation is to throw Russia out of Ukraine, right?<\/p>\n

First of all, we can expect a strong Russian psyops campaign around the Israel-Hamas conflict aimed at pouring fuel on the fire in MENA and it will be an open goal almost, it is enough to film Israel\u2019s retaliation and add things that trigger, maybe some Quran burnings?<\/p>\n

If anyone doesn\u2019t think it\u2019s coordinated, Hamas was in Russia in March this year.<\/p>\n

For 1.5 years the West has first dragged its feet with weapons and then chosen to both give just enough for Ukraine to survive but also give them a whole book of restrictions on what they are not allowed to do.
\nThe reason for this is the Russian influence operation with threats of escalation, the West is simply scared.
\nUkraine has shown time and again that these are empty threats but the anxiety has lingered.<\/p>\n

As an example, we have Putin\u2019s embargo on civilian shipping in the Black Sea which the West chose not to comment on and when Putin demanded to get back into the SWIFT system the message was that they would look at it.
\nOnly one country pushed hard and Putin fled immediately, and that was a country without a navy.<\/p>\n

Russia has built up a myth around itself as a big threat and the West has taken the bait despite evidence to the contrary earlier (the New Year\u2019s attack in Grozny\u2026) and above all evidence that they are weak in the Ukraine war.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatatfender\/status\/1710837817574567945?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

They threaten escalation without having anything concrete behind the threats, just like in the Black Sea and the embargo.
\n\u201cThe other side\u201d watches how the West acts and if the West acts submissively it gives hope to continue, right? Even today Putin hopes that Western support will decrease.<\/p>\n

Because of how the West has acted so far, Serbia and Hamas have smelled morning air and Turkey may have felt forced to escalate in Syria.<\/p>\n

The free West does not need to start any new conflicts \u2013 they need to give Ukraine the weapons they need so that they can defeat Russia fundamentally in Ukraine and thereafter they should keep the sanctions and not interfere in the internal chaos in Russia as it decolonizes.<\/p>\n

Now it seems there will be some straightening of ranks here because the US is about to deliver the war-deciding weapons package that we in the thread have been calling for quite a while.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1710724809267536011?s=46&t=cRLbYbYp0cJIOvcAx9rQRQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Stop giving Putin hope is probably the message the whole West should get, right?
\nAfrica, MENA and all countries with Russian subversive activity will become better places to live when the Russian octopus has lost its tentacles. Terror-class Russia and all letter agencies.<\/p>\n

Good and bad \u2013 Russia is now using FAB500 extensively on the southern front and Kherson, they do this because their AH-64s were knocked out and because the artillery is heavily decimated.<\/p>\n

They are finite, both the platform and the ammunition but they are extremely unpleasant as they give a very big bang.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1710900469445390583?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the aid to Ukraine as a share of GDP, we should probably stop complaining about Norway now \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1710912370455855385?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a>
\nSweden probably gets off lightly as we have also given qualified weapons systems but there are a couple of countries far down that should be ashamed, Spain and France could do much better and the Belgians.<\/p>\n

I think \u201cthe other side\u201d has now shown their cards, right?
\nFirst of all, Hamas visited Russia and Turkey this spring and summer \u2013 Erik14 posted that yesterday.<\/p>\n

We know what Iran wants \u2013 to wipe out Israel, Khomeini is pretty clear if anyone doubts.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/heliosrunner\/status\/1710767787415642576?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

A rave party for peace right at Gaza which is stormed and many participants kidnapped or murdered shows quite clearly the level of the conflict, we can assume that this will be long and very violent. Hezbollah has not made its move yet (with a bit of luck Hamas started too early and now the window is closed).<\/p>\n

The country Russia has made very clear to us what their ambition level is and countries in the EU that enjoy the West\u2019s full freedom and prosperity are recklessly playing with them \u2013 Hungary.<\/p>\n

Turkey went from a decent country to a dictatorship over 10 years.<\/p>\n

China has just taken several steps towards full dictatorship.<\/p>\n

Now, Western Europe will never be invaded, but Eastern Europe will suffer, Africa will have a hard time, countries in Asia will be affected, and the West should soon realize that this is a new world order; the post-WW2 balance has been swept away.<\/p>\n

The only arena where Russia is not behind, pulling the strings and letting someone else die is Ukraine, and it is in Ukraine that the West should ensure that Russia loses spectacularly because that is the only arena where one can reach Russia.<\/p>\n

BRIICS is probably used somewhat as an umbrella organization, but many countries want to join despite knowing the intentions of the big dragons and the kind of multipolar world they want.<\/p>\n

LW usually brings this up, but this is how it looks in many places in Russia. Instead of improving the country, they invest everything in destabilizing the West and worsening things for other countries.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1710926636256768301?s=46&t=sPvfT7vSgxVDhQJjClRnAw<\/a><\/p>\n

This is how the world looks, and it is starting to be time for the West to accept the accomplished fact and act accordingly. There is a very long influence operation behind this \u2013 the refugee crisis from 2015 onwards, the electricity crisis, and the whole right-left oppositions.<\/p>\n

The absolutely most important purpose of Russian influence is to try to pacify the West. We argue with each other and within our countries so that we do not have the strength to see how Africa is recolonized and everything else that is in the pipeline.<\/p>\n

One thing at a time, and it is a reasonable assumption that if Russia is thrown out with the bathwater from Ukraine, this can be de-escalated, but for every half year it continues, the next step in development can be realized, and it becomes increasingly difficult to rewind \u2013 the West is playing a high-risk game by not fully ensuring that Ukraine gets the weapons they need to win this.<\/p>\n

One must be very clear that there is a long lead time behind what we see playing out now.<\/p>\n

Now China (in the shadows behind North Korea) has started supplying Russia with ammunition and presumably artillery, and that is an undesirable development, for example.<\/p>\n

Today’s post became a bit more about world politics than the UA war; on the ground in Ukraine, progress is steady, and it is a godsend that Shoigu has been given a mission because now the last saber-rattling brigades are running screaming across the potato fields and dying. Ukraine cannot lose the war with allies like Gerasimov, Shoigu, and Putin actually. You have to look further in world history to find worse leaders.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There has been a peace movement in Israel and strong forces pushing for de-escalation, which has probably also affected the effectiveness of the security services \u2013 Mossad, Shin Bet, and others?<\/p>\n

Hamas has also stated that they want to normalize relations if I understand correctly?<\/p>\n

They have previously used rather unconventional methods, and it is probably enough that a political leadership appoints a moderate chief for the whole organization to change over time and become more ineffective?<\/p>\n

There has been some concern that the sword would become dull because of this, and missing something as big as this will have enormous internal consequences in Israel. Netanyahu is probably not very happy to be stuck with this mess right now.<\/p>\n

Israel will probably also go after Iran after this, that is my amateur guess when they have eventually restored order.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Well written!
\nIt really is time for the West to act more forcefully. As you write, there is a great risk in letting this continue.
\nRussia is probably partly behind what is happening in Israel, and Western leaders must start thinking about what else they can come up with to destabilize the world.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now it has started, grew up with this conflict with a mother who was very engaged.<\/p>\n

Just saw two videos, one of Israeli teenage girls who are kidnapped and sitting looking scared, and another of Israeli children, 3-6 years old, placed in chicken coops and the filmer is standing and laughing at them. You absolutely boil.<\/p>\n

This is done to get maximum impact, you absolutely boil, and it will guarantee a very harsh response from Israel. There is no chance anyone can keep them on a leash any longer.<\/p>\n

I do not understand why Hezbollah missed the chance to surprise, but according to Twitter, they are about to get involved now. That makes me believe they have trained in the new capabilities that have proven to work in the UA war and will be able to succeed even against the army \u2013 they pull out the army to fight it?<\/p>\n

This will be very violent \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The video with the children is a bit of a warning, it may be planted influence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

To understand what a blow this is for Israel and how proportional retaliation will look \u2013<\/p>\n

700 kidnapped
\n500 dead will increase sharply.
\n2000 wounded will increase sharply.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The video with the children is not related and thus planted influence.<\/p>\n

There is another, however, where a kidnapped boy about 7-8 years old is being bullied around.<\/p>\n

Apparently, HAMAS has been instructed to film as much as possible and post on social media if I understand correctly for maximum impact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I perceive that there are three discussions about the Hamas invasion in the thread today.<\/p>\n

– One trying to describe what has happened and guessing what the outcome might be.
\n– One that either supports Israel or supports Hamas by historically trying to justify either side’s actions.
\n– One that is actively anti-Israel or anti-Palestine and is venting, also some who push an agenda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Some good news \ud83d\udc4d
\n(Dead Russian)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1711086061856633336?s=46&t=AEXZn2vaowb8DvVQ43kDvg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:10 \u2013 Johan No.1 Back to Ukraine. 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