{"id":8293,"date":"2023-10-13T07:43:20","date_gmt":"2023-10-13T05:43:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:45:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:45:32","slug":"2023-10-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If the whip is cracking right now with the Russians, which it seems to be, and everything is going as badly as we have seen so far, which it also seems to be \u2013 then there should be new dismissals quite soon.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s always fun because first the commanders who have been responsible and in control get fired, and a new talent is handpicked and flown in with strict orders to make Putin happy.<\/p>\n

The best solution is to order all available units forward towards suitable targets and keep your fingers crossed that you survive a whole month in the new job.<\/p>\n

We have seen this throughout the war and right now things are going badly everywhere.<\/p>\n

How long do we think the Russian offensive operations can continue?
\nUp in northern Luhansk they must still have offensive capacity since the 47CAA and 1GT(?) could be thrown in directly at Avdiivka but nevertheless it was the 25CAA that attacked most recently up there in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

What does the thread think, are the remaining units up in northern Luhansk becoming worn out or are there formations that have not yet been committed to battle?<\/p>\n

At Avdiivka they should reasonably have a few more weeks of offensive operations, the number of units they have mobilized can\u2019t be exhausted yet and it is a Putin-focus area with the highest priority (apparently).<\/p>\n

There are indications that the VDV is finished at the southern front and they have been pushed very hard for quite some time now. Grankovitch posted about that the other day.<\/p>\n

Behind them it is presumably only newly mobilized units and also very many thousands of units and BARS (where bars are a bit hotter) that hardly have offensive capacity?<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t see that there are offensive reserves at the southern front today nor at Bakhmut but at Avdiivka and northern Luhansk they should keep going for a while longer \u2013 does that sound reasonable?<\/p>\n

When the autumn offensive is over, Ukraine should reasonably restart its offensive operations in order to achieve its set combat objectives.<\/p>\n

They haven\u2019t really stopped but I think everything is timed so that it is reasonable that they are waiting and watching right now and I am of the opinion that they still have offensive capacity and that the intensity will be maintained or increase going forward.
\nIf that doesn\u2019t happen then it\u2019s a critical situation, when we reasoned about the spring offensive last winter and spring that was the sign we should watch for if UA ran out of gas.<\/p>\n

That has not happened so far and the assessment so far must be that there is more gas and that UA has the initiative but we keep our eyes open.<\/p>\n

Have now looked through the videos of lost vehicles at Avdiivka and among others there are T62, BMP-1 and MTLB. I find that interesting because these are units that have been held in reserve but still equipped with T62 and MTLB as fragment-protected troop transports \u2013 signals to me that they are short on hard vehicles.<\/p>\n

This was a serious attempt and if they had a couple of CAA with only T90, BMP3 and Terminator up in northern Luhansk they probably would have committed them when it is Shoigu\u2019s skin on the line.<\/p>\n

Then it\u2019s always worth hammering home the point that those who didn\u2019t think T62 was rolling scrap used to explain to us who thought so that \u201cit is very deadly and will be used as an IKV in defense and not offensively\u201d. The T62 has long been knocked out in Russian offensive attempts so that theory fell flat whoever was promoting it when we laughed so hard at the first T62s.<\/p>\n

Military lab also said that an IFV had \u201c13 soldiers\u201d with it and that is beyond normal numbers so presumably they had more infantry and were heavily loaded?
\nHere you see a bunch of Russians on a tank, also reasonably signals a shortage of hard vehicles?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1712585723910520942?s=46&t=yxq7mq5ekKQAF8ccER1iQg<\/a><\/p>\n

RU lost almost 1000 artillery pieces in September and rocket artillery was the third highest. If tank losses continue like this in October it could reach top ranking.
\nThe Russian tubes have fallen silent (no they haven\u2019t but it sounds nice) and they are loading infantry from Storm Z onto tanks in an attempt to create mechanized forces.<\/p>\n

Here it is confirmed (Twitter rumor!) that Storm Z is fighting in Avdiivka.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1712429497985749449?s=46&t=2jWni19yMdwmhABKtQEwrg<\/a><\/p>\n

I have said this a couple of times already during this war and been completely wrong but right now we have three significant pieces of information after a spring offensive where Ukraine took the entire initiative on all fronts and RU is retreating.<\/p>\n

-Now the war-deciding weapon packages have arrived, we are presumably still waiting for the USA and their 100 billion USD?
\nThe USA has just promised to hold a coalition that will develop Ukraine\u2019s air force
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1712195163404284210?s=46&t=2jWni19yMdwmhABKtQEwrg<\/a><\/p>\n

-Then the USA has written in capital letters that they are looking for legal ways to send these 300 billion euros in frozen oligarch funds which should be read as \u201cif you end the war we won\u2019t find any legal ways and you get your money back\u201d. This has now been expanded with Belgium actually sending the first 1.7 billion euros to Ukraine.
\nAnd it is clear that the intention is that all funds will be sent, the signals are hard to misunderstand.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1712389399441183015?s=46&t=2jWni19yMdwmhABKtQEwrg<\/a><\/p>\n

The third is that Putin has demanded a win from Shoigu which we now see playing out in Avdiivka, what a win \ud83d\ude00
\nAvdiivka is absolutely failing catastrophically right now and if it is so that Putin is under more pressure than usual and is trying to increase the stakes to win that discussion then he has just failed.<\/p>\n

That is on the bubble list and you can\u2019t predict outcomes from that, still\u2026 tough mention.<\/p>\n

That the VDV is now basically spent is hugely significant, the last of the +50,000 of the offensive reserve and we see how new units are fighting in Avdiivka.
\nIt can be seen on the unit maps what Grankovitch wrote that VDV is being rotated out.<\/p>\n

Everything is of course relative and the big question is whether UA has offensive reserves to exploit this low point and my money is on that they do.<\/p>\n

There are two reasons why the spring offensive has taken time \u2013 the Surovikin line but also our time\u2019s largest minefield and also the fact that RU has exchanged dead for time in their counterattacks.
\nThey have chosen to consume the last offensive reserve of the +50,000 they had managed to maintain since September 2022, they are now finished.<\/p>\n

David D is happy with the LV that will be sent so then we are too.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1712269282858483844?s=46&t=2jWni19yMdwmhABKtQEwrg<\/a><\/p>\n

My thought about Avdiivka and I\u2019m not first in the thread, don\u2019t remember who. It was probably an attempt at combined arms warfare that once again went to hell. When PV, PV robot and drone weapons as well as guided indirect fire simply make this too difficult. NATO is presumably taking notes?<\/p>\n

From here it can only get better \u2013 we have SOF, partisans, Russian liberation fronts, \u201cFreedom Russia\u201d, and maneuver brigades that have learned to clear defense systems on a legendary level. UA has artillery superiority and the Russian navy has fled Crimea. All this has happened since the spring offensive started and it\u2019s no small thing.<\/p>\n

UA is pushing Wagner out of Africa, and on the battlefield in Ukraine, they have Uber for artillery and a better digital battlefield than what we have in Sweden.<\/p>\n

Even today’s Gregg sounded almost like old times.<\/p>\n

To win this war, Ukraine needs to get its air defense, its missiles, they need to enter Belgorod and towards Rostov on Don, and then it’s over for the luxury torture marinated in gasoline dangling in the wind before they find a lighter that works.<\/p>\n

The bubble list is boiling as usual, and suddenly it happens even though the latest bubbler was probably this year’s biggest disappointment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Winniethepo posted yesterday from Gerashenko that Russian was spoken during H…as’s assault on I…el. Let’s hope the West doesn’t drop that ball because it could seem unifying for the West to understand how much of the world’s evil Russia stands for and can help the West contribute to a win (if that’s true \ud83d\ude00)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Gerashchenko_en\/status\/1712473612442276256<\/a><\/p>\n

Immediately, the discussion has started that it could be anything, but the twitter rumor below suggests that Wagner has trained H…as over time. Small drops of information that eventually become a flood.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1712706751072530877?s=46&t=yxq7mq5ekKQAF8ccER1iQg<\/a>
\n\u2019<\/p>\n

For me, Russia is a puppet master with tentacles of subversive activity throughout the West, but now they have also raised the level by going big in Africa, starting the Ukraine war, open murders, and if true, also assisting with expertise for murder of civilians in I..el.<\/p>\n

Russia has gone far beyond the line, and that’s why it’s fun that the West first warned and then took action with oligarch money. 300 billion euros, where Belgium will now send the first 1.7 billion to Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1712069908257759568?s=46&t=FgJPDEliAIcfM1y0eHQHmQ<\/a><\/p>\n

It’s too little too late as usual, but at least it’s something and hits those in power directly.<\/p>\n

Now H..as has made a huge PR mistake; usually, they strike quietly and then the world’s media follows when I..el carries out its counter-move and the world turns against the violence they see.<\/p>\n

Now they managed to behead infants, parade corpses, murder many different nationalities, spread videos of torture, and leave crime scenes with desecrated and tortured bodies \u2013 they simply got so overjoyed when they managed to get hold of children and women to murder that they couldn’t refrain from filming the murders and posting on their social media to get pats on the back.<\/p>\n

Then the pro-H..as groups have carried out violent demonstrations in Europe to show their support for this senseless violence \u2013 the contrast couldn’t be greater and has been impossible to miss for everyone.<\/p>\n

There is a video going around now where Jewish stores in London have put up papers with missing women and children after the attack and then filmed pro-H..as people taking them down, a catastrophic PR, simply couldn’t be worse.<\/p>\n

An almost united West does not see I..el as the perpetrator at this moment, which is a shift from quite a few years back, and if Russia can be linked to this act of violence, it will serve as an amplifier for how the West views Russia.<\/p>\n

If Russia is linked to this violence, it is a strong unifying factor that will be able to make the West act more decisively against the terror state Russia’s constant war crimes and crimes against humanity.<\/p>\n

Then it probably wouldn’t hurt if I..el didn’t completely lose it here, and the risk is probably high that they will, but I don’t think any reins in the world can stop them, unfortunately.<\/p>\n

This was a serious attempt at escalation that might backfire, and the boomerang will smack right into Putin’s pale back of the head.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Unfortunately, the Russians have discovered that they can drop FAB500 and FAB1500 relatively unchallenged and have started increasing their use.<\/p>\n

My guess is that you need something other than shoulder-fired tubes to get at them, and that those systems are not close to the front.<\/p>\n

The helicopters were all shot down when deployed at the southern front at the start of the spring offensive, but they have now used attack helicopters near Avdiivka according to reports.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the air force is probably increasing, but David D was satisfied with the air defense that was to be sent, so it looks good.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Thanks, you learn every day \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Quite far down the wall of text I wondered if the pressure on Putin is big now and if that prompted the offensive. Yes, it could probably be long-lasting\u2026<\/p>\n

How do the siloviki perceive those 300 billion USD that UA is supposed to get now?
\nOr was it their weekly allowance that disappeared and they have magnitudes more?<\/p>\n

We can probably ignore that rumor from GeneralSVR that Putin is terminally ill, but the oligarch Fridman, how does that fit into your picture?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What we have seen here is that Ukraine and Russia have shown that you cannot skimp on NATO doctrine.<\/p>\n

So far, NATO doctrine has been applied to pitchfork-wielding peasants and has gone excellently.<\/p>\n

Isn’t there a real risk that when it is tested for real, they won’t have the massive superiority in critical capabilities required, a bit like now?<\/p>\n

Just thinking out loud here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Regarding Avdiivka, Accentmannen suggested that they had pre-bombarded with attack helicopters, FAB500 and FAB1500 as well as artillery and that it had been an absolute firestorm, well yes, not three weeks but for a day or two?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Great reading as usual! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Almost as great as your ten-pointer this morning \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
17:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

This was a real ten-pointer!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Strike two, interesting to say the least and just in time for winter \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1712864073820332479?s=46&t=p1KKU65QdcUvvnvLaT6Qhg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

You’re mad at I**ael and then you stop gas deliveries to the whole world? Sounds logical..\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Damn, thought the thread would topple, a multi-stage rocket and a very smart one.
\nJust in time for winter, the West’s support for I\u2026el will be tested sharply.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hello thread \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1712919513010762194?s=46&t=p1KKU65QdcUvvnvLaT6Qhg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Fifth?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now there are a couple of new accounts trying to create conflict again. One starts to quarrel and 2-3 agree with them.
\nSince you start to recognize those who have hung around here far too long instead of doing their jobs, it’s easy to see what’s going on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 If the whip is cracking right now with the Russians, which it seems to be, and 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