{"id":8297,"date":"2023-10-15T10:55:29","date_gmt":"2023-10-15T08:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-15-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:46:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:46:24","slug":"2023-10-15-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-15-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today it will perhaps mostly be a couple of short points and a long exposition about I..el which I hope is on topic because I\u2019m trying to keep it on topic.<\/p>\n

The last time Russia had a revolution it was internal within the country. If you want to push it, it\u2019s the same now, right, if UA unleashes all Russian volunteers or moves towards Belgorod?<\/p>\n

Then a small reflection that UA has decimated RU artillery from 15:1 to 1:1 \u2013 they keep knocking out RU artillery, right \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The other thing is that now for some week in Avdiivka RU has lost a number equal to the strategic reserve 25CAA that was recently added, it was 15,000 according to reports.<\/p>\n

The negative is that UA has had a higher ambition level than this after this period of offensive operations. They have not achieved the combat objectives they assumed and are now looking for an opening to exploit.<\/p>\n

I sincerely hope they don\u2019t give a damn about the West and go straight for Belgorod or something else fun very soon.<\/p>\n

There are rumors that H..as sent in infiltrated patrols to take out higher command and key personnel in connection with the attack and the number of high-ranking officers who have died suggests there is something behind this.<\/p>\n

Now the narrative that Russia probably did not actively support this will of course be worn down for a while but that RU paid H..as 93 million USD before the attack is also incriminating, the 548 piece of information that all points to Russia\u2019s active participation.<\/p>\n

I myself believe it was Wagner in G\u2026a who trained the terrorists and then assisted in the attack. I also believe that I..an has contributed with SOF but have no real evidence for that.<\/p>\n

I am also surprised that H..ah did not attack simultaneously. There are supposed to be 40,000 H..as in g..a, why they did not all attack on day one is unclear.<\/p>\n

That leads me to the conclusion that this went beyond expectations, they had hoped to reach some kibbutz and torture-murder some civilians and lose 2,000 men for it.<\/p>\n

Then I speculate that Russia has foreseen I..el\u2019s response four steps ahead and that there is a whole plan to always stay one step ahead. I bit on that one about Qatar cutting LNG because it fit the pattern but that was probably false so it didn\u2019t hold.<\/p>\n

Conspiratorial to the extreme but I think this has been too well organized.<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s crystal clear that H..as is stopping civilians from leaving G..a when they try, IDF, checkpoints and appeals.
\nI find it hard to believe that I..el can be deterred from its response actually, that they have delayed the ground attack is probably unfortunately the weather. They will go in.<\/p>\n

Now comes the broad strokes again so hold onto your coffee mug when you start laughing out loud.
\nRussia has been clear that they want a conflict with the West if we follow their rhetoric but I think they intended to blow over Ukraine quickly.<\/p>\n

Now where we are today the overarching plan is still to escalate this significantly but the West has so far refrained from entering Ukraine and continuously let Ukraine stand foremost. A bit too little even politically and diplomatically they could have done more.<\/p>\n

What is happening right now in I..el \u2013
\n-I..el will try to conduct urban combat against 40,000 terrorists in G..a with many civilians left.
\n-Iran has threatened \u201cintervention\u201d if I..el enters G..a.
\n-H..ah also has that as their red line and they have started fighting now.
\n-Egypt demands negotiations to the 1967 borders.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/spectatorindex\/status\/1713193120966562214?s=46&t=53b6BU2_NS5Cfre9h4u0qw<\/a>
\n-Iran has recently met H..as
\n-And the USA is sending in two CSGs and the entire West is ready to assist I..el militarily.<\/p>\n

Is it just me who sees that the escalation they have avoided at all costs in Ukraine for 1.5 years is happening right now in real time in MENA instead?<\/p>\n

That will have exactly the effect Putin is after if the whole MENA lights up, right?<\/p>\n

My conclusion can only be that the escalation will happen whether we want it or not, if this doesn\u2019t work something else will until it does.<\/p>\n

The West can therefore go all in in Ukraine now, there is nothing left to tiptoe around. I had a couple of suggestions the other day about a no-fly zone in western Ukraine and air defense manned by the West for example.<\/p>\n

Then give UA exactly everything they need to beat Russia to the ground and try to make them turn inward.
\nBecause if Russia turns inward much of what we see playing out now will disappear when Russia is no longer one of the driving forces and their subversive tentacles turn inward.<\/p>\n

Our eastern border is our immediate proximity and the EU must solve this now.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, H..as rockets have probably exhausted I..el\u2019s defense rockets now if Iran enters the war.<\/p>\n

This has only just begun unfortunately and it is not business as usual, it is a planned escalation in steps I am quite sure of.
\nThen I am of the opinion that Russia is trying to hide that it is heading towards escalation until we face fait accompli so there is some risk that those trying to downplay this now are doing so with a purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dThanks!
\nI think you are right about the escalation (and Russia\u2019s involvement) but of course hope it can be avoided.
\nLet\u2019s hope the West wakes up and realizes it has everything to gain by accelerating support to defeat Russia as quickly (and hard) as possible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The 108th VDV is located near Novokropovka and is apparently captured and the VDV near Kopani is said to have folded \u2013 a lot is happening quietly right now.<\/p>\n

The number of artillery brigades on the southern front is extreme, UA is pouring death on the Russians there right now.<\/p>\n

They also have so many drones that they are hunting individual shooters with FPV drones \u2013 says it all, right?<\/p>\n

The units defending around Robotyne are now in terrible shape for the most part and we don\u2019t read about more reinforcements after 76GAAD.<\/p>\n

At Kherson RU seems to have reinforced with two brigades as strategic reserve but otherwise it looks bad there and Rybar considered that UA has pushed the entire marine corps back to Kherson.<\/p>\n

At Staromaiorske it is quiet and if they have pulled back the marine corps they have also pulled back some other heavy units, or are waiting until everything is gone in the west and then strike \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

VDV on the southern front are now combat ineffective and are being pulled out, the artillery is heavily decimated while Ukraine has not yet deployed its heavy elephants and has \u201cunlimited artillery ammunition.\u201d<\/p>\n

Anyone still think it\u2019s not going well?
\nIt\u2019s starting to be a bit like a moose hunt now this at the southern front \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Over 100 tanks have been knocked out near Avdiivka in just a few days, it definitely stings, we can probably assume.
\nWe also have undeniable proof that they lack heavy vehicles because we have seen overloaded infantry carriers, T62, MTLB and BTR-50 as well as lots of BMP-1.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine just manages to get the damn IFVs to the fronts now, it’s over but the West is still dragging its feet.
\nIf Ukraine can decimate the Russian artillery from 15:1 to below 1:1, they can do anything.
\nAnd above all, when Russian artillery was 15:1, they managed Izyum, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson and Lyman.<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, UA is currently standing on the railway embankment and shooting precisely at the next Russian defensive position. Western tanks can lower their barrels so they can stay protected behind the embankment, which is high.<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, many Russians will die in the trenches ahead until they retreat to the Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasna line (which does not actually run there but got that name).<\/p>\n

At the front in UA, things are very bright, like elevator music.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Some from the 108th VDV are said to have been captured, not the whole regiment \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Up in northern Luhansk there is now a whole bunch of those thousand-strong units \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

That probably means they have weakened so much up there that they had to reinforce with them, good for the world.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, time is starting to run out slowly, not for a UA loss but to prevent escalation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I’m sitting and looking a bit at the number of demonstrations against I..el right now, in Algeria they are demanding holy war and in the entire West there have been huge demonstrations. There are videos where they chase damn people and several countries have issued warnings against visibly wearing the Star of David.<\/p>\n

Last time I..el entered G..a, the protests weren’t at this level, or am I remembering wrong?
\nI had the impression that several countries in MENA had taken steps to normalize relations with I..el, Dubai for example?
\nI also thought that H..as had stated that they wanted to normalize relations with I..el?<\/p>\n

It has gone from de-escalation to a powder keg torch in 2 years or something, is that correct?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Positive, positive as you sometimes end your essays! (Elevator music I’m not so fond of.. \ud83d\ude09 )<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

You probably took it a bit too far but I don’t write it very well either.<\/p>\n

Seems like H..as got 93 million USD and has been trained and armed by RU and the promise was probably a raid into I..el, one can reasonably guess?<\/p>\n

Iran, which has H..ah, has very close ties with RU, that’s well established?<\/p>\n

MENA and the rest of the world have seen how the West has avoided entering the conflict in UA for 1.5 years now.<\/p>\n

RU is very good at fueling conflicts and I..el vs Pal..na is a very easily ignited fire. Then many countries in MENA have their populations to consider and in country after country they demand jihad.<\/p>\n

There is already war in Syria, Lebanon is in ruins, Iran is a dictatorship. The only one who should refrain is Egypt.
\nHowever, there is OPEC which as a countermeasure against I..el can choke oil and gas.<\/p>\n

And suddenly Russia has a new gas weapon just in time for winter \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I think everyone who wrote here missed the most important point \u2013 I..el is now going to conduct urban combat against 40,000 H..as and that is NOT the easiest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

If it’s true that they have dug in and have a lot of tunnels, that won’t make it easier either. Unlike Wagner in Bakhmut, they are hardly prepared to sacrifice soldiers like they did. I think it will take time and still require heavy losses on both sides.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Star Wars \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1713610837464600615?s=46&t=gNlxo-WgYI6tq2WFzLf3mQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

80 T62 knocked out in UA \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rebel44cz\/status\/1713562324466897076?s=46&t=gNlxo-WgYI6tq2WFzLf3mQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Oh, that’s Israel’s new superlaser shooting down drones with a laser beam just like in Star Wars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Oh, that’s I\u2026el’s new superlaser shooting down drones with a laser beam just like in Star Wars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Five Patriot batteries from the US possibly D https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1713756941544002047?s=46&t=jhNt5l7CnTtieRtyntjQYg<\/a> avid D<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Eadu Hossu, a million loss total for RU. Same as David D guesses.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/raduhossu\/status\/1713737297735110978?s=46&t=jhNt5l7CnTtieRtyntjQYg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:09 \u2013 Johan No.1 Today it will perhaps mostly be a couple of short points and a long exposition about 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