{"id":8309,"date":"2023-10-20T09:07:17","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T07:07:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:48:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:48:05","slug":"2023-10-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now Jallai has of course written out the name on his Twitter, but it’s good that the thread keeps the style here and does not mention names before he is at least detained (if he is detained).<\/p>\n

The whole thing is a bit like a novel, a top military officer with full insight into the most secret rooms who studied two years in Russia is arrested together with his wife suspected of espionage, completely crazy (if there is anything behind it!).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A lively night shift and then you wake up to an astronomical bonk list from the numbers god MXT which is ATH for IFV, barbarians and MBT. Apologies that the dog got hold of the phone in the middle of the night and posted a message, now he is connected.<\/p>\n

A thoughtful post by Mickeuppsala in yesterday’s thread this morning that got many worthwhile answers \u2013 tip.<\/p>\n

Goodness, how badly Avdiivka is going for the Russian team but they have also made renewed attempts in northern Luhansk so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
\nThere is a high probability that it will be ATH for tanks in October 2023.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we discussed that the stage is set and now it is probably becoming the common view that crossing the Dnipro is the establishment of a bridgehead (which of course can be contested if they are unlucky) and that they intend to open a threat in the back of the southern front.
\nOtherwise, they would not have pushed back the marine brigades, right?
\nEverything is probability and so far it has worked surprisingly well.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1715070340487893329?s=46&t=0khXAR5__UGVduwrGWaHdQ<\/a><\/p>\n

They have also effectively eliminated the threat from Ahkp and FAB500-1500 now.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1715187209991504137?s=46&t=0khXAR5__UGVduwrGWaHdQ<\/a><\/p>\n

I have now read Skator’s excellent link which I hope no one missed, thanks Skator. The numbers are by no means unreasonable and correspond quite well with what we have known previously.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3775625-situation-on-fronts-of-great-war-what-can-be-said-about-it-objectively.html<\/a><\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk during the summer RU offensive, the 26th Tank Regiment, 47th Tank, 90th Tank Division suffered existential losses.
\nThis means that about a dozen brigades of those we see deployed up in northern Luhansk are not combat capable and that a large number of these brigades were tank brigades.<\/p>\n

I was calculating attrition rate at Vuhledar and it was something similar back then and if you remember there was some mechanized brigade up in northern Luhansk that knocked out 25 tanks in a few days or something.<\/p>\n

Then there are 237 tanks and 1500 IFVs but I did not understand if it was only northern Luhansk or included the northern front as well but I think that was the intention. Previous reports were 800-1000 tanks in northern Luhansk if I remember correctly so it is going downhill fast with the armored vehicles.
\nAdd to that the CAA that were brought down to Avdiivka so it is a rather thin Russian line in northern Luhansk right now.<\/p>\n

Then we have the “southern” group which apparently includes Bakhmut and Avdiivka, i.e. the Donetsk area and it would have 500 tanks and 1600 IFVs. We all know how the miracle at Avdiivka is going in real time so this number probably needs to be revised down sharply.
\nAccording to him, 8 CAA attacked in Avdiivka with 20th and 150th MRD as well as a mosaic of DPR units.
\n150th MRD is located in Bakhmut so weakened there for Avdiivka and 20th MRD was already in the Donetsk area.
\nConclusion that the area around Donetsk has been significantly weakened after the fiasco in Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

Further to the southern front, should be around 100,000 with 590 tanks and 1275 IFVs and APCs.<\/p>\n

Surprisingly many armored vehicles at the Dnipro actually (not listed them) and only 12,000 soldiers in Crimea \u2013 Erik14 was right, again\u2026 as usual.<\/p>\n

We can all sum this up and what remains of MBTs is quite meager now and not to forget that hundreds are T62 and T54-55 or older without later modification T72 \u2013 Yes, they are seriously short on armor.<\/p>\n

The figure for armored personnel carriers includes MTLB and all sorts so it is not 4500 BMP-3s left.<\/p>\n

I believe UA has more MBTs in absolute numbers and that they have better vehicles and that UA has more armored vehicles overall, ptgb, APC and IFV.<\/p>\n

Then probably 30%-40% of the Russian vehicles have technical faults and on the UA side the workshops all over Europe are working themselves to death to service the vehicle fleet.<\/p>\n

Let’s hope Dengamle gets back in time to nail a \u2013 “Tonight the tanks roll \u270a”<\/p>\n

There is quite a lot of doubt about the ambition level but when you send in SOF and reconnaissance which are among the most protected resources you have to clear defense systems \u2013 then you have aimed high.<\/p>\n

Then we have the whole peak discussion \u2013 also completely wrong but we have to wait until it is disproved by increased intensity.
\nUA would never have crossed the Dnipro if it had peaked, right?<\/p>\n

Sure, Ukraine had planned to break through at the southern front this summer but it simply did not work.
\nThey have now carried out the preparations they need to make to be able to get their breakthroughs.
\nAfter New Year, RU has new fresh CAA to send to the fronts so the time between now and New Year is the low point they have to relate to.<\/p>\n

Now we are also entering a period of rain and cold, I am now taking a wild guess but I believe that mobilized units have worse equipment than previous cold periods and that this time autumn and winter can hit the Russians hard.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s SOF, partisans and reconnaissance are a constantly growing group.
\nEven territorials now have their own capabilities.
\nWhile the Russians’ counterparts die in the ditches at the front as infantry.
\nDarkness is their friend and they will ravage one more season with the newly mobilized Russians.<\/p>\n

Evidence 827 \u2013 Kremlin representatives admit that RU actively supported H..as attack, end of the tie, boxers and windows for this person. (someone who can Russian might confirm).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1715017075029086651?s=46&t=cRS73Yp9KCxagcPbQGao3g<\/a><\/p>\n

If anyone still thinks RU has lost 50,000, maybe they can explain how 3,000 of them can be officers?
\nOf which 75 are battalion commanders!
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/killedinukraine\/status\/1714972533475139788?s=46&t=cRS73Yp9KCxagcPbQGao3g<\/a><\/p>\n

I would very much like a thread discussion about this, according to the poster RU sold American securities before they started the war and now China is doing the same. Can this be seen as an indication of anything (at all)?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1714990622963060986?s=46&t=cRS73Yp9KCxagcPbQGao3g<\/a><\/p>\n

The link that there will be a steady stream of ATACMS going forward
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1714985630927560805?s=46&t=cRS73Yp9KCxagcPbQGao3g<\/a><\/p>\n

Hard not to do somersaults this morning, no trampoline here in Africa though \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This is what it looked like around the non-bombed hospital and the destroyed parking lot.
\nNYT was quick as cobras with an article and the imagery was a destroyed building that led the reader to believe that it was the hospital they were looking at.
\nThey are welcome to explain what they were thinking there?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1714820640090308908?s=46&t=cRS73Yp9KCxagcPbQGao3g<\/a><\/p>\n

If anyone still believes there is a grain of truth in this, then we have zero videos of a destroyed hospital and 500 dead would never have been missed by H..as lining up and filming panoramically.
\n(I must be clear that hundreds of civilians are dying there now, it is only this I am arguing against).<\/p>\n

I tend to think that Russia, China, and the sworn parties feel that they have reached step two in this as MENA has lit up.
\nI maintain that I believe this is well-planned in several stages and that one of those stages is the escalation of China in their neighborhood.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, I believe that the West is trying to choose a de-escalation that unfortunately does not exist, and that the smartest thing the West can do is to actively support those who are exposed (as with UA and I\u2026el), soon also in Asia, to strengthen our allies militarily and to start letting the workshops run hot because astronomical amounts of weapons will be needed going forward.<\/p>\n

Now, in addition to very well-coordinated protests throughout the West, we have had equally large protests in MENA countries where they have often burned damn buildings such as embassies, churches, or shops \u2013 an old-fashioned pogrom, simply put.<\/p>\n

If you ask me who is running around painting the star on damn shops all over the EU, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if it is Russian influence because they had such an operation during the Cold War to create divisions in the West \u2013 the hatred in West Germany that was rampant was caused by many GRU agents with spray cans!<\/p>\n

I have probably posted more than overwhelming evidence that Russia is directly involved in the H..as attack, or rather information, and then it is probably the observer\u2019s subjective interpretation, but the fact that Russian was spoken during the attack, Wagner is reported to have been there, they have supplied weapons, paid large sums, H\u2026as has visited Russia, and finally representatives have boasted about helping H..as with this is enough for me to take a stance on the matter.<\/p>\n

Since Putin was the guest of honor in China recently, the only conclusion can be that Xi believes things are going better than last winter, right?<\/p>\n

And since everything is worse for the West than last winter, it indicates what they consider good \u2013 the worse off we are, the happier and more lively they become.<\/p>\n

Now, American bases in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have been attacked; these are three different countries and this happens shortly after the H\u2026as attack.
\nThe fact that they manage to plan and carry out attacks with weapons that must be obtained for the purpose indicates long planning, in my opinion. Except in Turkey, where the weapon used was an angry mob.<\/p>\n

Then you can believe what you want about the American destroyer and the two missiles and drone that were shot down. Does anyone believe that the Houthi rebels sent a drone against I..el from Yemen, are they world leaders in long-range drones?<\/p>\n

A small indication of where this is heading is that the US has just announced that their citizens should leave several MENA countries.<\/p>\n

To summarize, the war in Ukraine is heading towards an eventful late summer that will make Putin binge on omeprazole, but Russia and China managed to escalate anyway despite a rather shaky start, but the West sitting on its hands and pretending nothing was happening was just enough.<\/p>\n

If the West had sent everything at the low point in 2022, this would never have happened; if Ukraine had received everything before its spring offensive so it had crushed the Russians, this would never have happened (sure, doubt the last one because the mines would have been there anyway\u2026).<\/p>\n

After 2014, Putin was welcome in the fine rooms of the West \u2013 that was our Chamberlain moment.<\/p>\n

Now we stand on the brink of a global conflict, and from where I sit in my parents\u2019 basement room, it looks like it will continue to escalate.<\/p>\n

Here is a video from Iran where heavy rockets are being moved.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1715100673602163087?s=46&t=0khXAR5__UGVduwrGWaHdQ<\/a><\/p>\n

We must not forget Africa in the middle of all this and that Russia is actively destabilizing some of the world\u2019s most fragile countries and that no one cares.<\/p>\n

A reflection on the West\u2019s passivity here \u2013 if I, in my job in Africa where we are tasked with monitoring contractors, had seen my colleague dining with the contractor\u2019s PM \u2013 I would have acted immediately on suspicion of irregularities.
\nIf you, working in the Green Party, had seen your colleague having lunch with a representative from the SD \u2013 you would have acted immediately.
\nAnd so on.
\nIt is such an obvious betrayal by Orban, who has EU and NATO membership to manage, that it is completely incomprehensible that it has no consequences when he sits in cozy meetings with Putin.
\nYes, I know that you cannot just throw out clauses, but we didn\u2019t need to pay Hungary all the grants, and why is he still invited to everything as an honored head of state in the West.<\/p>\n

Reaching the point where this will not de-escalate does not mean that we will be standing at a mob armory fingering AK4s in about half a year.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will push Russia back to the 1991 borders, and Russia will no longer be able to threaten Europe in this war. Now the EU is not completely lost, so we will ensure that the Baltics, Poland, Finland, the Baltic Sea, and Ukraine get a sufficiently strong defense, and the EU countries that do not contribute will provide funds so these countries can bear the cost \u2013 our eastern border will be formidable.
\nSweden will have a prominent role in the defense of the Baltic Sea, and the USA or UK will top up with a destroyer permanently if needed.<\/p>\n

However, our navies, air forces, and standing army units will likely contribute something to form some kind of Western defense force that will be needed in various parts of the world for a few years ahead together with the US counterpart.<\/p>\n

Asia is probably next after MENA unless Steven Pearsson is lying in his book \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Everyday life for all of us ordinary people will continue, but the world as a whole is heading towards worse times because it increasingly feels like the die is cast, but we shall see, hope for de-escalation is the last thing to die!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Sorry \u2013 it should have said 75 brigade commanders, 360 battalion commanders have died.<\/p>\n

Brigade commanders are not the first to go and die, and if you do a completely unscientific calculation and say that 360 battalions have died together with their battalion commanders, you get a neat number.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

My second post is in the freezer, tried to clean up the words but it didn\u2019t work\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks, most things seem to be going in the right direction!<\/p>\n

China is probably selling securities because they are starting to run out of money..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks for the thread discussion MXT about China \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yes, probably, and to claim that it is war preparation is extrapolating too far.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Gloomy but thoughtful post. Still keeping my fingers crossed that de-escalation will be possible, but it is doubtful..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Zerg rush at Avdiivka continues, it is now over a dozen brigades that were already understaffed before that have become empty shells.<\/p>\n

When the smoke clears eventually, it will be interesting to see what remains that actually has combat value.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

That was short but to the point! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

I think you are exaggerating there, but the only thing you can always be sure of is that you can never be sure of anything, so you might be right.<\/p>\n

Wait, that became a paradox..? \ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

No, the EU eastern border is secured after the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

However, Russia is preparing for many wars in Africa that will lead to large refugee flows again, I consider this indisputable because Wagner has greatly increased its presence throughout Africa.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t have many countries in Asia in NATO, right?
\nAnd we already know that Turkey and Hungary will block anyone Russia or China does not want to join.<\/p>\n

If Africa is now destabilizing and then MENA, China can always start flexing its muscles in its sphere of interest, and not a single country in that area is in NATO today, but some have guarantees from the USA.<\/p>\n

Now we have seen how good guarantees are in Ukraine, and for example Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are in that area. Then you have all the other countries in Asia, would the West lift a finger for Bhutan or Thailand?<\/p>\n

When it comes to Taiwan, we assume that no one can be that stupid, but the USA just sent two of its CSGs to MENA. They have 9, as far as I understand, but can’t handle that well enough.<\/p>\n

They also built the Spratly Islands for a purpose, and with improved anti-ship missiles, CSGs are becoming increasingly vulnerable.<\/p>\n

Now I’m just thinking out loud \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I absolutely believe that is partly true. Then another factor is giving someone a new capability so RU is forced to reshuffle, then when they are done you give them another so they are constantly surprised.<\/p>\n

Another factor that must not be forgotten is the Russian subversive activity and that it largely aims either to delay Western support or to make it completely absent. They have worked weekends to influence the West before and throughout the war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

So I agree with StefanT \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

We discussed that a lot in the beginning, that the West has a huge responsibility for this, but that discussion has died down a bit.<\/p>\n

Also not to forget that Macron and Germany convinced Zelensky that Russia would not attack.<\/p>\n

At the start of the war, it was very clear that many were just waiting for Ukraine to give up and got annoyed that they had the audacity to defend themselves.<\/p>\n

It’s been a while since you gave a lesson about Russia, PerraG55, they are popular \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I have hoped for an entire war that this could be de-escalated \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now that there are wild jokes about the dog that I might have mixed up a bit, we have a true story that the colleague who lives one floor up \u2013 there the cleaners had left the window open so two fruit bats had sneaked into the room, the body was apparently about two decimeters long and they have quite a wide wingspan.<\/p>\n

He nearly had a heart attack when they crawled out while he was casually surfing on his phone in bed \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Pretty cool anyway, I must say!<\/p>\n

But I wonder, was it really a \u201ccolleague\u201d? Did it maybe happen last night in connection with the mentioned dog writing comments here on Cornucopia?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I can’t be completely sure in two days but I can confirm that bats were involved \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
21:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:13 \u2013 Johan No.1 Now Jallai has of course written out the name on his Twitter, but it’s good that 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