{"id":8310,"date":"2023-10-21T08:57:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-21T06:57:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:48:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:48:05","slug":"2023-10-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There is an absolutely crazy zerg-rush at Avdiivka and northern Luhansk that makes the miracle at Vuhledar seem like a great victory and the generals at Tannenberg seem like geniuses.<\/p>\n

Since they have used up the entire offensive reserve\u2014you know who they are\u2014my guess is that they attacked with the units they considered the best of the motorized and tank forces they had left \u2013 they have not shown any willingness to hold back before.<\/p>\n

What remains after this are thus those who were not particularly hot to begin with, and in the fields at Avdiivka now lie the soldiers from motorized and armored brigades who were considered to have little (Russian) bite.<\/p>\n

At Donetsk, we should soon be able to count out about a dozen brigades marked on the unit maps, and in northern Luhansk we can also count out about a dozen.<\/p>\n

Then I wonder if the rumor is starting to spread in the army now?
\nWe usually write that the worst poker hand anyone has gotten in this war is the mobilized who were sold to Wagner. Saw a video yesterday of an older Russian soldier, looked like a Swedish +60 so could have been Russian 40-50 type. He was sitting and shaking and then a pan to the soldier filming who was quite taken.<\/p>\n

Putin has infinite blood on his hands not only Ukrainian and not only in this war, he treats the country Russia as he treats Ukraine.<\/p>\n

And when the Russian cancer spreads in the countries they want to influence, they bring out the worst in people every time.
\nIt is incomprehensible to me how an army of people can allow themselves to be abused in this way but evidently they let it happen for 1.5 years and ongoing.<\/p>\n

The first who got a little individual freedom and professionalism rebelled immediately so that is probably over if one may guess.<\/p>\n

The winter offensive was largely Wagner and the brigades at Vuhledar as well as a failed attempt at Vasylivka on the southern front. It was not the offensive reserve or the majority of the army.<\/p>\n

Now it is the last offensive reserve that is being lost but as long as it was defense that is one thing but when you then use up tens of thousands in completely senseless attacks over the fields at Avdiivka, the jungle drum should start beating I think?<\/p>\n

Now maybe they can\u2019t do much but a little sugar in the tank and passive resistance will also get you far.
\nI have proclaimed \u201cthe Ardennes offensive\u201d since January 2023 so low credibility from the undersigned but if this coincides with UA increasing pressure then it could get lively.<\/p>\n

Another possible reason for Avdiivka is that Putin is now visiting Rostov na Don and that the command maybe wants something to show so they have continued the attacks even though they have gone so-so?<\/p>\n

According to Erik14, UA repelled RU mechanized counterattacks at Krunky which indicates that they have established a bridgehead that is not entirely fleeting.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/astraiaintel\/status\/1715386301904478276?t=10SeqsarEgNK-MDq1wyssQ&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n

It is very neat because the counterattacks cannot come straight over the Oleshky Sands but must take the detour around that area and can then be heavily exposed to consequences.<\/p>\n

Remember Davyidiv Brid, it is now the same thing \u2013 UA artillery, drones, aircraft and army aviation are ready to attack every attempt at counterattack as the bridgeheads lie under their own artillery umbrella.
\nTo be able to carry out counterattacks, the poor Russians have to go up and band on the highway and expose themselves to all indirect capabilities.
\nMy guess is that we will now have weeks of violent RU counterattacks at the Dnieper until they are completely exhausted and that the bridgeheads stand firm.
\nAfter that, UA will methodically expand the bridgehead in the entire area between S Antonovsky and Kasochi Lopan(?)<\/p>\n

What we are seeing the prelude to now is probably what we (read: I!) thought we would see during the summer before they got stuck in the minefields.
\nIt seems to be frost or something at Avdiivka so maybe the ground will not get much more waterlogged?
\nAt the Dnieper, the ambition level is to establish at least one bridgehead, otherwise they would not have pushed back the marine brigades.<\/p>\n

It opens a threat in the flank on the southern front that the southern front command now has to relate to.
\nOffensive operations on the southern front continue, I know where I guess the breakthrough point will be (and if I\u2019m wrong I claim I was right \ud83d\ude00).<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, offensive operations continue.
\nUp in northern Luhansk, they will slowly transition to offensive.
\nWhy the northern front is quiet bothers me enormously but the West probably still has some kind of lock maybe \ud83e\udd2c
\nThen the chess move is made.<\/p>\n

If it is now that Russia and Putin refuse to accept the fait accompli, then UA up in northern Luhansk has come within range of NS supply route outside UA land border.<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass left to the rebels will be taken over time when all SOF and their best brigades are pooled in.
\nCrimea will fall like a ripe mango and we will think that operation Badanka was like a warm-up in the amateur league.<\/p>\n

There is unfortunately some concern about the strategic Russian reserves but if the West can just sort out their diagnoses and allow UA to move towards Rostov na Don and the northern Oblasts, the strategic reinforcements will be locked up there and they can rain tungsten over bases and assembly areas in depth. Some sobering up from the West would be appropriate here, Ukraine is not made of kryptonite.<\/p>\n

Yesterday Grankovitch posted that ATACMS M26 is on its way \u201cunlimited\u201d and they are a little monster without legs \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n

It could be that it is the last puzzle piece needed to shatter the Russian defense?
\nThey have front-line range and spread an absolute cloud to cluster Russians in a pit and UA already has the platforms to fire them.<\/p>\n

Yes, it would be fun with strike aircraft and the undersigned has shouted blue about thermobaric weapons but to unleash the cluster rain seriously over a front section will do horrific damage.<\/p>\n

Someone says hide in the bunkers directly but when UA starts moving they have to go up into the defense systems, right.
\nThen there are more models in stock and now that the door to the warehouse is open and the word ATACMS is no longer a stigma, we will probably get tired of seeing clustered Russians going forward.
\nSolros2022 was early out with these legless monsters in 2022 before anyone else in the thread could even spell it I recall \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

ATACMS is also part of the strategic communication and also this, EU and USA shall find new ways for embargoes.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_world\/status\/1715612172959510778?s=46&t=sX7-GMTOmvHWbb-UW8lksQ<\/a><\/p>\n

One must not forget that the collapse of the Soviet Union came after decades of sanctions but they had a well-developed own industry. Now everyone hopes we will get to 1989 in a year but we won\u2019t, if that is what is needed. It is a slow strangulation where everything slowly gets worse but the leadership can still redistribute, smuggle and in other ways run on low flame.<\/p>\n

However, Estonia believes that RU can only sustain a LOW-INTENSITY war for another year. How long they can handle a high-intensity war was not specified.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1715423300065591573?s=46&t=OWyHbJkoi3Oo_26glIQFjw<\/a><\/p>\n

In the ongoing discussion about how much Putin knows, we do have their official communication regarding UA losses.
\nIF Putin receives something similar, it\u2019s not hard to understand why he believes the West is getting weary enough to want to negotiate now, but I find it hard to believe that such poor information could be conveyed?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/dim0kq\/status\/1715603907387310174?s=46&t=sX7-GMTOmvHWbb-UW8lksQ<\/a><\/p>\n

NK ammunition has now been filmed in Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/uaweapons\/status\/1715421360644600064?s=46&t=OWyHbJkoi3Oo_26glIQFjw<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is yesterday\u2019s Perpetua, giving some indication of how things look right now..
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1715393802490216558?s=46&t=OWyHbJkoi3Oo_26glIQFjw<\/a><\/p>\n

Now they are dying, so we shouldn\u2019t mock too much, but what I see in this video is a crew and infantry still fighting with the vehicle and their personal weapons.
\nA bit like when you first enlisted and the first week the group slept under a tarp on the ground, and by the end of the conscription the tent was up in 15 minutes.<\/p>\n

These are soldiers who have just started learning, and note that it is a BMD\u2026
\nAnd then think about all the videos we have seen of the 3rd Assault Brigade at Bakhmut.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1715605405668184263?s=46&t=sX7-GMTOmvHWbb-UW8lksQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Another proof that RU is low on armor, they are now sending tank crews as infantry.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/akihheikkinen\/status\/1715415280183066834?s=46&t=OWyHbJkoi3Oo_26glIQFjw<\/a><\/p>\n

To PerraG55 and our discussion yesterday about Rosgvardia and that they have \u201cbetter units\u201d in some places that are not riot police.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ralee85\/status\/1715453801602093381?s=46&t=VlZhZA7__CGuMXA04ld_kA<\/a><\/p>\n

Now WP has made an article that is circulating saying that Russia actively undermines democratic elections in the West in \u201cseveral countries.\u201d You know there is someone in the thread who usually writes that if we terror-class Russia and remove the subversive tentacles from the West using anti-terror laws, the free West would be better to live in; demonstrably, our elections would at least be calmer \ud83d\ude00
\nRussia has already carried out terrorist attacks in Bulgaria in 2011 and invaded Moldova pre-this war.<\/p>\n

Bradley forward and blasting Russians in a ditch with its autocannon after laying smoke. They don\u2019t seem the least bit afraid of near-PV it seems.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1715644207799361590?s=46&t=sX7-GMTOmvHWbb-UW8lksQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Remember the discussion about RU supposedly having units without PV in the first line, then fully packed with PV weapons in the second, and extra everything in the last.<\/p>\n

Seems those who claimed that were wrong again this time. There were some others who thought they pulled back exhausted units to fortify the next line so they were already spent and low on everything, and that it would get easier the deeper the extension went.<\/p>\n

Looks like we are facing increased intensity in Ukraine and that the Russians will not like it at all. The negative is that the escalation in MENA continues and that it is now likely beyond the point of no return.<\/p>\n

The hope that Russia will become a democracy and move closer to the West can probably be forgotten, but that the EU now seems to get an eastern border with integrity we should be very grateful for, thanks to the world\u2019s best infantry.<\/p>\n

We have discussed the Belarus revolution and a demilitarized Kaliningrad, but second best is actually good enough \u2013 give the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, and Ukraine help to have a threshold RU cannot overcome and then a strong defense of the Baltic Sea. If it becomes a cold war, then so be it, this time RU is at least not standing in half of Berlin revving engines.<\/p>\n

Saturday positive then, and hopefully the last puzzle pieces are soon in place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I saw it and couldn\u2019t decide if he had received talking points or not, we\u2019ll see \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I have noted that they crossed at two places and are also moving a bit around the Antonovsky Bridge area.
\nThen that they pushed back the marine brigades and finally managed to repel the mechanized failures that RU task forces made.<\/p>\n

Since RU has not managed to take the bridgehead at the Antonovsky Bridge, it\u2019s time to expand sometime, I think?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s positive essay!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1 There is an absolutely crazy zerg-rush at Avdiivka and northern Luhansk that makes the miracle at 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