{"id":8313,"date":"2023-10-22T08:38:52","date_gmt":"2023-10-22T06:38:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:48:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:48:31","slug":"2023-10-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The entire Marine Corps seems to have been moved back to the Dnepr and so far it seems RU has not succeeded in breaking through the bridgeheads.
\nAccording to the legend on two legs Mr-Pyro, Ukraine may have reached the Oleshky Sands.<\/p>\n

If you scout the map you will see that they have access to three supply routes from that area and they are protected from Russian mechanical failures in the sand.<\/p>\n

I maintain that UA intends to establish a threat on the flank of the southern front and that is what they are doing now \u2013 it will increase. Already when Rybar leaked that the Marine Corps had been pulled out, it was likely.
\nThen we have speculated about raids between Kinburn Spit \u2013 Crimea but that has died down a bit I think after Budanov’s idea with the jet skis.<\/p>\n

Regarding Avdiivka, we must not forget that Gerasimov has for some time been leading from the front, or from Rostov\u2026 By the way, he has lost a lot of weight due to high stress levels in the staff which is good.<\/p>\n

Avdiivka bears his fingerprints and it is quite clear that he and Shoigu have now personally invested in this so there may be violent suicide attacks for a while longer before they throw in the towel. What is a month more at work compared to tens of thousands of dead Russians, absolutely worth it.<\/p>\n

Then you see the Russian corruption \u2013 these two have survived the whole war but generals get fired in streamlined jumps, some are simply protected and can be as incompetent as they want in RU.<\/p>\n

Then I just want to highlight that there is an enormous amount of capacity and capability in the West if and when needed, just read the link below to understand what kind of air force capability the West is sending to the area around I..el now, right?
\nFor example, the thread has long suggested that the West could have a no-fly zone in western Ukraine manned by Western crews on air force and advanced aircraft \u2013 it has been considered impossible.
\nBut for I..el it works perfectly (and that is good!)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/osinttechnical\/status\/1715926385334587517?s=46&t=nfTMkuShAq0BGAuCRxaxzw<\/a><\/p>\n

Again, that escalation that the West has been terrified of throughout the Ukraine war and let the Ukrainian population die instead of intervening with help \u2013 that escalation is happening right now in real time in MENA instead.
\nFor me it is about a threshold and that RU and China want to push as many as possible over it through escalation, they want to get more and more to actively support them \u2013 and they are living their best lives right now\u2026<\/p>\n

I find it quite hard to understand how the West has acted in this war and my conclusion can only be that the head of the influence operations group at GRU has gotten tired of champagne and thank you letters from Putin by now.<\/p>\n

As far from proof as you can get but we already wrote in 2022 that China was likely sending ammunition and some considered that unreasonable.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1715761558079283594?s=46&t=0SL7xXfes1kAfyHnr-lBtw<\/a><\/p>\n

On the subject of escalation, China is now sending surface vessels to the waters around MENA\u2026<\/p>\n

ISW counts from Russia and not UA loss figures, right?
\nHigh range \u2013 290 +190 + Wagner who said 70k + dpr and lpr which were hit hardest?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defencehq\/status\/1715968673066705375?s=46&t=nfTMkuShAq0BGAuCRxaxzw<\/a>
\nIs that so far from the 900k that some guess?<\/p>\n

Again, times of waiting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

From Slava it is clear that part of the game is that the West runs out of ammunition as the conflict now spreads to I..el \u2013 overly obvious, that is what they hope for.<\/p>\n

Something is also going on with OPEC and oil shortages, I don’t have this completely clear yet but that we are heading into winter in the West and that MENA holds this year’s “gas weapon” has probably not escaped anyone \u2013 Putin is cunning. And now when the consequences were zero after NS1-2, Baltic connector and the telephone cable \u2013 welcome wrench in the reactor \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

In the whole influence operation it is worth mentioning that H\u2026as terrorists have especially been ordered to cut off heads, feet and hands of the I..er they murdered and post videos on social media \u2013 that this terror attack aimed to make I\u2026el go absolutely bananas and crack down hard is crystal clear to me.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/colebunzel\/status\/1715783934859231627?s=46&t=0SL7xXfes1kAfyHnr-lBtw<\/a><\/p>\n

The huge protests in the West against I..el are large and police are trying to crack down hard. There is a high probability that the protests will turn into opposition against governments, “the rich”, the environment or institutional racism and start involving other groups as well. This level of demonstrations can effectively paralyze countries with a bit of luck and then they push that the country’s government should stop supporting the Ukraine war for example?<\/p>\n

Protesters managed to break the perimeter of the White House and storm the Capitol \u2013 good momentum in the USA at least.<\/p>\n

Then pogroms are going on right now here and there, drawing stars on stores owned by j..s, assaulting j..s, murdering j..s. Hard to see how the owner of a shoe store in Canada can be complicit in what is happening in MENA actually, especially if he has not expressed any sympathies in the matter but just wants to sell shoes \u2013 as an example. Below are examples of murders.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/michaeldweiss\/status\/1715834754061259097?s=46&t=nfTMkuShAq0BGAuCRxaxzw<\/a><\/p>\n

Again \u2013 one of the most important purposes of Russian influence is to make the West passive. Western countries have for many years received a large diaspora from a war-torn Middle East which at least since 2015 was actively driven by Russia (established fact) and when the usual refugee routes were plugged they tried via Belarus and Finland instead.<\/p>\n

Russia has now shown that it can create existential conflicts in the West with something as simple as Quran burnings (also established fact) when the West does everything to promote integration and make everything work. Everyone has a weak point that they react to \u2013 just look at a domestic political discussion in the thread \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then it is enough to press start for the right wing and voila \u2013 absolute chaos.<\/p>\n

Now I hope everyone read the article in WP that Russia actively undermines elections in Western countries.<\/p>\n

I do not see the above scenario as unreasonable but likely, the purpose is to create chaos and make the West passive and it is time to realize how deep the Russian subversive tentacles go, how long they have been at it and the extent of what they are doing.<\/p>\n

Russia has already in 2011 carried out terrorist attacks in Europe and NATO countries, back then Putin was still welcome in the high circles and the world listened to Lavrov’s words.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anno1540\/status\/1715787193837408348?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Can never be said often enough, terror classify the country Russia or alternatively all agencies so that all active support in the EU can be targeted with the help of anti-terror laws and start cleaning up this swamp.<\/p>\n

As PerraG55 diligently and tirelessly writes, the West has assisted Russia in this \u2013 influence operations are expensive but our banking system has ensured that the war chest has been replenished.<\/p>\n

When Western leaders smiled and shook hands with Putin and opened our countries and systems wide open for the Russian elite, they were already actively working to destabilize the West and carrying out outright acts of terror.<\/p>\n

When people like Johan Kragh or our very own blogger LW told the truth, they were slandered and character assassinated in the media during prime time.<\/p>\n

Russia has been given a free pass on everything all the time, but I think it’s about time they pay the full price. Why is it uninteresting that people in the West act on behalf of another state to tear down the country they themselves live in? I find that highly interesting, and if it falls under anti-terrorism laws, it becomes easier to prosecute (legally).<\/p>\n

Russia is a criminal clan that is also a country and has been a scourge on the world since at least the 18th century, and a better opportunity to at least not worsen the situation will probably never come again.<\/p>\n

Post-1989, the West tried to welcome Russia into the fold, and that has brought us to today.<\/p>\n

Post-1989, the Soviet Union also broke up, right? And it didn\u2019t lead to nuclear winter. Does anyone believe it would be Armageddon if Russia were to break up into its natural parts after this, Belarus experiences a popular uprising, and Kaliningrad is demilitarized \u2013 Russian psyops suggesting the world would be worse off if that happened, if I may guess.<\/p>\n

Decolonization is also all the rage except apparently for old communist countries like China and Russia.<\/p>\n

That Russia has had its entire hand in the cookie jar around H..as is crystal clear to me; the trickles of information are now a downpour, including them bragging about it themselves. They have also demanded that H..as commit the worst violence imaginable, down to infants, for PR purposes. It is utterly inhuman, but that is how they have behaved in Ukraine for 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

We all remember the mother who saw her five-year-old daughter violated, tortured, and finally murdered, and when she tried to take her own life and failed, the perpetrators laughed \u2013 the line was crossed long ago, no matter what standard you reasonably use?<\/p>\n

My two cents on a Sunday morning \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

It will be interesting to see what happens at the Dnieper. Looks good so far, and no matter how it goes, I think they are doing exactly the right thing. Either they succeed in establishing a real bridgehead where heavier equipment can eventually be brought over, or the Russians will have to take the threat more seriously and move troops there that must be taken from elsewhere.
\nIt\u2019s starting to lean towards the first option, they are continuously expanding their presence.
\nDrones (+ PVRB of course) allow you to take out enemy armor without having to have your own armor. You can probably get far without having to establish a bridge to get vehicles across. In the long run, of course, that is needed for effective logistics.<\/p>\n

Regarding Avdiivka, I\u2019m beginning to suspect they will do everything to try to repeat Bakhmut regardless of the cost. I doubt they will succeed, but unfortunately, it will probably disrupt Ukraine\u2019s offensive to some extent. I guess they will be forced to advance and expend artillery. On the other hand, the Russian army weakens further when they choose to take enormous losses. In the long run, that will only benefit Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Well written! I suspect the Russians are behind far more than people think (while also being aided by useful idiots who themselves benefit from creating divisions). Really time to classify them as terrorists; the atrocities they commit in Ukraine are enough for that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

In the grand campaign plan, crossing the Dnieper with battalion-sized infantry defending in suitable settlements under their own artillery umbrella and knocking out Russian counterattacks before they got within firing range with indirect capabilities \u2013 to be precise, that has been achieved.<\/p>\n

Then in later discussions, we have talked about many flanking maneuvers where a push towards the land bridge, which naturally becomes a push towards the water south of Melitopol instead, is made.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

My eyes were opened when I understood the extent of their subversive activities during the 80s, or rather the Cold War.
\nThen it took me a very long time, after this war started, to accept that they have increased to the same level if not worse again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russian major assault at Avdiivka with trucks \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1716098114350682131?s=46&t=bh1HdtV7SAbfbIjmhoGptg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Good second place after the blogger as it should be.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, apparently since the 30s.
\nMore than just me missing LW\u2019s updates, 16:10 \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The West is balancing on not stepping over and becoming a dictatorship itself, and Russia are experts at playing on that.
\nThe UN et al (many) have slow-walked the Ukraine war, which is very obvious.<\/p>\n

China has not yet shown its cards so diplomatically or politically; we probably still have some way to go on the escalation ladder.<\/p>\n

The strikebreaker Hungary is problematic and shows how easy it is to hijack the democratic process, something that should have been considered earlier.<\/p>\n

The West could have done more, but the West also has our shared democratic principles to adhere to, but in the case of Russia and the Ukraine war, the West could have done more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

When I..el sends leaflets into G\u2026a saying all civilians who do not leave are combatants and can be shot \u2013 then I..el has stepped too far in my opinion if they want to stay within the rule of law of democracy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lions \u270a<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1715397567054336102?s=46&t=bh1HdtV7SAbfbIjmhoGptg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 The entire Marine Corps seems to have been moved back to the Dnepr and so far 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